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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Apr-08-26
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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chessmoron chessforum

<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
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7. Baden-Baden (1870)

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>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

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   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49924 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Apr-07-26 Nakamura vs Caruana, 2026 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <ge: Both players got both of their Rs to the 7th rank, Caruana even got there first, but it was so, so much more effective for White> Naka got the check in first.
 
   Apr-07-26 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Elite Posters, take note: <Between this executive action and the settlements to these two cases, the Trump administration is setting a stark contrast with the Biden White House. Someone does look like a king. And it isn’t Trump. > ...
 
   Apr-07-26 A J Goldsby
 
OhioChessFan: Sounds like great fun. 😂. Just reading about being in bumper to bumper traffic makes me want to scream at the world. It drives me crazy. Maybe not quite Falling Down crazy, but close. https://youtube.com/shorts/TNYA4QbD...
 
   Apr-06-26 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: Jimmy Smith - Ready N Able Nice jazz organ. https://youtu.be/l_MmUaM2Awk?si=sAy...
 
   Apr-04-26 Caruana vs Bluebaum, 2026 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Really like the pun.
 
   Apr-04-26 Wei Yi vs Sindarov, 2026 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Black's position looks really ugly with the fractured Pawn structure and King in the middle, but I don't see much for White to attack.
 
   Apr-04-26 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I think I've got it although the c4 Pawn seems superfluous.
 
   Apr-03-26 Nakamura vs Sindarov, 2026 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Naka has been thinking an hour on this move...
 
   Apr-03-26 WannaBe chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: Hard to believe that was 6 years ago. We had a Manager retire in fear. I knew one person who died and 2 who ended up in ICU.
 
   Apr-01-26 Schlechter vs Lasker, 1910
 
OhioChessFan: Great game, nice kibitzing analysis. Zero chance I'd find 35. c6
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 369 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jun-18-13  lostemperor: Round 5 Tue June 18
Gelfand - Morozevich 1-0 40
Carlsen - Anand 1/2 38
Nakamura - Andreikin 1-0 38
Mamedyarov - Caruana 1/2 41
Kramnik - Karjakin 1/2 42
Jun-18-13  whiteshark: Round 5

Gelfand - Morozevich 1-0 46
Carlsen - Anand 1-0 62
Nakamura - Andreikin 1-0 37
Mamedyarov - Caruana 1-0 35
Kramnik - Karjakin 1-0 50

Jun-18-13  lostemperor: Nevertheless, I still enjoy this prediction contest but I did opted for a slightly different scoring system. For example:

12 (or 15) points for an exact prediction

9 (or 10) points for the contestant with the best prediction (no matter over or under) (if there is no exact prediction)

6 points for the correct 5 points -group Eg. 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 moves etc

3 points correct first digit (10-points group) Eg. 30-39, 40-49, 50-59

This is and easy system for the contest manager to work with and does not distinct between over or under predictions. It is fairer and has a lot of advantages IMO

In case the <Karjakin-Mamedyarov 1/2-1/2 in 43 moves> prediction:

Exact, 12 points (or 15):
<wordfunph> 1/2-1/2 43

Correct 5-points group 6 points:
<twinlark> 1/2-1/2 42 <lostemperor> 1/2-1/2 44 <chessmoron> 1/2-1/2 40

(In case there was no exact prediciton twinlark and lostemperoro would have gotten 9 (or 10) points for being best prediction regardless over or under)

Correct 10-points group 3 points:
<WinKing> 1/2-1/2 45

Jun-18-13  lostemperor: Btw. what happened to <Over, 3 points: [] >

in <Karjakin-Mamedyarov, 1/2-1/2 in 43 moves>? Why is not that awarded?

Jun-18-13  twinlark: Round 5

Gelfand - Morozevich 1/2 34
Carlsen - Anand 1/2 28
Nakamura - Andreikin 1-0 44
Mamedyarov - Caruana 1/2 34
Kramnik - Karjakin 1/2 40

Jun-18-13  wordfunph: Round 5

Gelfand - Morozevich 1/2 44
Carlsen - Anand 1/2 36
Nakamura - Andreikin 1/2 44
Mamedyarov - Caruana 1/2 44
Kramnik - Karjakin 1/2 36

Jun-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Round 5:

Gelfand - Morozevich 1/2 36
Carlsen - Anand 1/2 39
Nakamura - Andreikin 1-0 45
Mamedyarov - Caruana 1-0 19
Kramnik - Karjakin 1/2 29

Jun-18-13  whiteshark: <Round 5> Rien ne va plus...
Jun-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <lostemperor: Btw. what happened to <Over, 3 points: [] > in <Karjakin-Mamedyarov, 1/2-1/2 in 43 moves>? Why is not that awarded?>

It wasn't awarded because there was an exact. If there is an exact or an under, then the closest over will be second. Per the instructions on my header:

<<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.>

As for the idea of 5 point groupings, that's interesting, but I kind of like how hard it is to score.

Jun-18-13  lostemperor: Okay that figures I think;)

Well it is up to <chessmoron>, if he will consider a different score system where no one gets heavily disadvantaged for predicting over instead of under and may be better off to predict lower rathe than higher. Contestants should be encouraged to predict exactly what he or she expects without extreme disadvantages.

Jun-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ♔ In game update ♔

Vishy blundered early and Carlsen won an easy game in 29 moves. Naka and Andreikin played a harmless 23 move draw. Gelfand is winning early against Moro. 28 moves in, Kramnik-Karjakin looks like a quick draw. Mamedyarov-Caruana is even but seems to have a lot of play on both sides.

Jun-18-13  chessmoron: ♔ Tal 2013: <Round 5> Results ♔

<Carlsen-Anand, 1-0 in 29 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1-0', '38']]
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Robin01', '1-0', '41']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['whiteshark', '1-0', '62']]

===

<Gelfand-Morozevich, 1-0 in 33 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['PinnedPiece', '1-0', '38']]
2nd Over, 2 points: [['lostemperor', '1-0', '40']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['whiteshark', '1-0', '46']]

===

<Kramnik-Karjakin, 1/2-1/2 in 40 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['twinlark', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '38']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '36'], ['Golden Executive', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '42']] 3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Mamedyarov-Caruana, 1/2-1/2 in 46 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '44']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '41']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '38']]
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '61']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Nakamura-Andreikin, 1/2-1/2 in 23 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['Golden Executive', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

2nd Over, 2 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '37']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

Jun-18-13  chessmoron: Round 5 Summary:

Perfect # moves predictions for this round goes to:

<twinlark> and <chessmoron>

Highest scores in the Bonus Ranker: 11 points <WinKing>

Results:

Moves Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

45, wordfunph, 0, 5, 1
27, PinnedPiece, 2, 3, 0
17, chessmoron, 0, 1, 1
17, whiteshark, 1, 2, 0
10, OhioChessFan, 1, 1, 0
10, Ragh, 1, 1, 0
10, twinlark, 0, 0, 1
7, lost in space, 0, 1, 0
7, lostemperor, 0, 1, 0
7, Robin01, 0, 1, 0
3, Golden Executive, 1, 0, 0
0, Penguincw, 0, 0, 0
0, SwitchingQuylthulg, 0, 0, 0
0, The Last Straw, 0, 0, 0
0, WinKing, 0, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

42, lostemperor, 0, 3, 0, 6
32, WinKing, 1, 2, 3, 2
14, Golden Executive, 1, 1, 1, 1
13, Robin01, 2, 3, 1, 0
11, wordfunph, 0, 0, 1, 1
9, twinlark, 1, 1, 0, 1
8, chessmoron, 1, 1, 1, 0
8, OhioChessFan, 1, 1, 1, 0
8, Penguincw, 0, 1, 0, 1
7, The Last Straw, 0, 1, 1, 0
6, Ragh, 1, 0, 1, 0
5, SwitchingQuylthulg, 0, 0, 1, 0
5, whiteshark, 3, 1, 0, 0
0, lost in space, 0, 0, 0, 0
0, PinnedPiece, 0, 0, 0, 0

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID

56, wordfunph
49, lostemperor
32, WinKing
27, PinnedPiece
25, chessmoron
22, whiteshark
20, Robin01
19, twinlark
18, OhioChessFan
17, Golden Executive
16, Ragh
8, Penguincw
7, The Last Straw
7, lost in space
5, SwitchingQuylthulg

===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 5>

Score,UserID

6, wordfunph
5, PinnedPiece
3, whiteshark
2, chessmoron
2, OhioChessFan
2, Ragh
1, Golden Executive
1, lost in space
1, lostemperor
1, Robin01
1, twinlark
0, Penguincw
0, SwitchingQuylthulg
0, The Last Straw

0, WinKing

Jun-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: No changes in the leaders today. A 9 round tournament seems mighty short. 4 rounds to go.
Jun-18-13  Robin01: Round 6 Predictions:

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 36
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 35
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 0-1 43
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 35
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 36

Jun-18-13  chessmoron: Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 36
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 32
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 35
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 40
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 37
Jun-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 41
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 30
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 47
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 28
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 44
Jun-19-13  WinKing: Round 6 Wed June 19

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 37
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 37
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 37
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 37
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 37

Jun-19-13  lostemperor: Round 6:

Morozevich - Karjakin 0-1 43
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 30
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 38
Anand - Nakamura 1-0 45
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 26

Jun-19-13  Golden Executive: Round 6

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 35
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 35
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 35
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 35
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 35

Jun-19-13  twinlark: Round 6:

Morozevich - Karjakin 1-0 38
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 37
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 44
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 32
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 45

Jun-19-13  whiteshark: Round 6

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 55
Caruana - Kramnik 1-0 43
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 28
Anand - Nakamura 0-1 47
Gelfand - Carlsen 1-0 39

Jun-19-13  wordfunph: Round 6

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 44
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 43
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 37
Anand - Nakamura 1/2 32
Gelfand - Carlsen 1/2 43

Jun-19-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Round 6:

Morozevich - Karjakin 1/2 38
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2 40
Andreikin - Mamedyarov 1/2 39
Anand - Nakamura 0-1 23
Gelfand - Carlsen 0-1 30

Jun-19-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Round 6 games have started.
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