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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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***Hall of Fame***
chessmoron chessforum

<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
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Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 494 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Aug-27-15  chessmoron: ♔ Sinquefield 2015: <Round 5> Result ♔

<Anand-MVL, 1/2-1/2 in 42 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['chesssantosh', '1/2-1/2', '42']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '36'], ['Golden Executive', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Aronian-Grischuk, 1/2-1/2 in 30 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '33']]
2nd Over, 2 points: [['scout118', '1/2-1/2', '35']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '37']]

===

<Carlsen-So, 1-0 in 56 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['alfamikewhiskey', '1-0', '48']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['wordfunph', '1-0', '46']]
3rd Under, 5 points: [['lostemperor', '1-0', '45']]
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Nakamura-Giri, 1/2-1/2 in 39 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['chesssantosh', '1/2-1/2', '39']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '35'], ['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['SwitchingQuylthulg', '1/2-1/2', '3']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['Karposian', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['Golden Executive', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '41']]

===

<Topalov-Caruana, 0-1 in 53 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['scout118', '0-1', '37']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['Penguincw', '0-1', '16']]
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

Aug-27-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Good job <WinKing>. Remember, the other 2 helpers are busy this tournament running their own thing, so it'll be up to you to catch any mistakes! No pressure. :)
Aug-27-15  chessmoron: Round 5 Summary:

Perfect # moves predictions for this round goes to:

<chesssantosh> 2X

Highest scores in the Bonus Ranker: 17 points: <Penguincw>

Results:

Moves Ranker - Through <Round 4>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

29, chesssantosh, 3, 0, 2
28, SwitchingQuylthulg, 0, 4, 0
20, Karposian, 2, 2, 0
14, lostemperor, 0, 2, 0
14, scout118, 0, 2, 0
14, WinKing, 0, 2, 0
10, chessmoron, 1, 1, 0
10, Robin01, 1, 1, 0
7, alfamikewhiskey, 0, 1, 0
7, Golden Executive, 0, 1, 0
7, whiteshark, 0, 1, 0
3, Penguincw, 1, 0, 0
0, alfamikewhiskey, 0, 0, 0
0, call14, 0, 0, 0
0, juan31, 0, 0, 0
0, OhioChessFan, 0, 0, 0
0, Penguincw, 0, 0, 0
0, wordfunph, 0, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

39, Golden Executive, 1, 2, 2, 4
18, Penguincw, 1, 0, 1, 2
17, OhioChessFan, 1, 2, 0, 2
16, lostemperor, 2, 2, 2, 0
16, SwitchingQuylthulg, 1, 0, 3, 0
15, chessmoron, 2, 1, 1, 1
14, Robin01, 1, 4, 1, 0
14, WinKing, 0, 1, 0, 2
13, chesssantosh, 1, 0, 0, 2
13, juan31, 1, 1, 2, 0
13, Karposian, 0, 1, 1, 1
13, wordfunph, 1, 0, 0, 2
10, scout118, 0, 5, 0, 0
5, whiteshark, 1, 2, 0, 0
4, alfamikewhiskey, 0, 2, 0, 0
0, call14, 0, 0, 0, 0

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID

46, Golden Executive
44, SwitchingQuylthulg
42, chesssantosh
33, Karposian
30, lostemperor,
28, WinKing
25, chessmoron
24, Robin01
24, scout118
21, Penguincw
17, OhioChessFan
13, juan31
13, wordfunph
12, whiteshark
11, alfamikewhiskey
0, call14

===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 5>

Score,UserID

5, chesssantosh
4, Karposian
4, SwitchingQuylthulg
2, chessmoron
2, lostemperor
2. Robin01
2, scout118
2, WinKing
1, alfamikewhiskey
1, Golden Executive
1, Penguincw
1, whiteshark
0, call14
0, juan31
0, OhioChessFan
0, wordfunph

Aug-28-15  WinKing: Rest Day today - Rnd.6 Saturday @ 2PM EST.
Aug-28-15  alfamikewhiskey: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 1-0, 45
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2, 34
Giri - Anand 1/2, 37
So - Nakamura 1-0, 45
Aronian - Carlsen 0-1, 52

Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Round 5 Recap **

<chessantosh> remarkably hit 2 exacts that round and has most of the contestants wondering if he paid the players off. He zoomed to the lead in 2 rankers. <GE> has the lead in the other 2 rankers. <Penguincw> finally started scoring some points, thanks to <OhioChessFan's> constructive encouargement. Everyone managed to get into double digits in total score. With the contestants in this contest in an emotional uproar, the tournament organizers wisely called for an off day for all of us to regroup. We're back to action Saturday, with 4 rounds to go.

Aug-28-15  wordfunph: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 46
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 46
Giri - Anand 1/2 46
So - Nakamura 0-1 46
Aronian - Carlsen 0-1 53

Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: For a little off day entertainment, try this quiz:

http://www.bloggerheads.com/mash/

You are…
Colonel Sherman T. Potter

Aug-28-15  Robin01: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 1-0 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 35
Giri - Anand 1-0 38
So - Nakamura 1/2 36
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 40

Aug-28-15  Karposian: <OCF> I'm Father Mulcahy! Thanks for the rest day entertainment. Now, please give me five minutes of my life back spent on silly rest day entertainment, LOL.
Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < You are…
Father John Francis Patrick Mulcahy >

I see I'm not the only one...

Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 35
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2-1/2 35
Giri - Anand 1/2-1/2 35
So - Nakamura 1/2-1/2 40
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2-1/2 35

Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  juan31: Round 6

Grischuk - Caruana 1/2. 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 0-1. 41
Giri - Anand 0-1. 40
So - Nakamura 1/2 42
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2. 39

Aug-28-15  Karposian: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 1/2 31
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 0-1 40
Giri - Anand 1-0 49
So - Nakamura 1/2 35
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 34

Aug-28-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 38
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 40
Giri - Anand 1/2 44
So - Nakamura 1/2 31
Aronian - Carlsen 0-1 34
Aug-29-15  Golden Executive: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 40
Giri - Anand 1/2 38
So - Nakamura 1/2 40
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 30

Aug-29-15  chessmoron: Grischuk - Caruana 1/2 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 0-1 42
Giri - Anand 1/2 38
So - Nakamura 1/2 40
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 45
Aug-29-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Round 6:
Grischuk — Caruana 1/2 36
Vachier-Lagrave — Topalov 1-0 1
Giri — Anand 1/2 25
So — Nakamura 1/2 43
Aronian — Carlsen 1/2 45

Round 7:
Carlsen — Grischuk 1-0 46
Nakamura — Aronian 1/2 35
Anand — So 1-0 45
Topalov — Giri 0-1 48
Caruana — Vachier-Lagrave 1-0 45

Aug-29-15  whiteshark: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 35
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 48
Giri - Anand 1/2 48
So - Nakamura 0-1 48
Aronian - Carlsen 0-1 50

Aug-29-15  scout118: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 0-1 38
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 42
Giri - Anand 1/2 42
So - Nakamura 1-0 55
Aronian - Carlsen 0-1 50

Aug-29-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Round 6:

Grischuk - Caruana 1/2 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 4
Giri - Anand 1/2 26
So - Nakamura 1/2 31
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 41

Aug-29-15  WinKing: Round 6

Grischuk - Caruana 1/2 31
Vachier-Lagrave - Topalov 1/2 31
Giri - Anand 1/2 31
So - Nakamura 1/2 31
Aronian - Carlsen 1/2 40

Aug-29-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Round 6 games have started.
Aug-29-15  twinlark: <Interesting player. He seems to show flashes of brilliance where you'd think he should be top 10.>

Yes, I thought the same.

It's interesting to speculate about the careers of some of the also-rans. Why didn't they take the next step up the ladder. In some cases, it's simply circumstances, such as simply being in the wrong continent (eg Africa, where the economy and infrastructure is very poor, or Australia, where the governance is second rate and there is great distance from the action), insufficient funds for proper development opportunities especially strong tournaments in faraway places, personal issues etc etc

There is of course only room for ten players in the top ten, but the rating bandwidth of the top ten can vary quite considerably from generation to generation.

It's easier to work out the reasons for the decline of the greats than why some of the promising stars never made it to the top.

Thanks for the suggestions, all of which I've implemented.

Aug-29-15  chessmoron: ♔ Sinquefield 2015: <Round 6> Result ♔

<Aronian-Carlsen, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Golden Executive', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Karposian', '1/2-1/2', '34']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

===

<Giri-Anand, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '31']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['SwitchingQuylthulg', '1/2-1/2', '26']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '25']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Penugincw', '1/2-1/2', '35'], ['chesssantosh', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['alfamikewhiskey', '1/2-1/2', '37']]

===

<Grischuk-Caruana, 1-0 in 40 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['Robin01', '1-0', '40']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['alfamikewhiskey', '1-0', '45']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<MVL-Topalov, 1-0 in 37 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['lostemperor', '1-0', '1']]
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<So-Nakamura, 0-1 in 39 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['wordfunph', '0-1', '46']]
2nd Over, 2 points: [['whiteshark', '0-1', '48']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

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