RonB52734: We have 3 pawn-islands (meaning we need to employ more pieces to defend our pawns than our opponents need to defend theirs); our King is trapped in the center; and we are behind and cramped in our development (meaning we'll have challenges manouvering our pieces quickly where needed).To a player holding the white pieces, this points a big neon arrow at our center pawns. This is their most dangerous attack.
Our valuable little d pawn happens to be so situated that, in exactly 2 moves from now, 2 new white pieces can be brought to bear on it. (That is, Nge4 and Nb5.) It is already attacked by 1, so that makes 3.
Next, by investing 2 moves (g4 followed by Rd1) they get a 4th. And, by investing 2 more moves (b3 and Ba3) they bring a 5th piece. Then, with two more moves (something like Rd2 and Rad1) they bring a 6th piece into the attack.
If we're not careful, white's f-pawn itself could be a 7th attacker.
Our little d6 pawn is currently defended by 2 pieces (B and Q). Thus, if white right now makes the two knight moves above, one of our two answering moves has to immediately defend the pawn (or, as with h6 and a6, permanently drive away an attacker.) We have one such defending move available immediately: Rd8.
After that, attacks and defenses will be even, and with correct play, white will have to take 2 moves to bring each 1 new attacker into the field. We will, therefore, have to be able to add a defense to that pawn (or permanently repel an attacker) every other move, up to a total of 6 (or 7 if we mis-handle their f-pawn).
What defenders are there? I've already mentioned 3: B, Q and R. Are there 3 (maybe 4) more? Yes. In fact, there are 4. We have the N, the other R, and, yes, the e-pawn and the K himself. (Obviously only one B at a time will defend the pawn.) Can we get them into place in time? I think so.
It will involve using our light-squared B at the right time to push the Q back so the d pawn can, again at the right time, advance. And something creative is going to have to happen to get both rooks into the fray.
It is possible that White is not thinking this way. White's last move, Ng5, may have been a beginner's tactic trying to exploit f7 with no other idea in mind.
I think it was more likely to be something we'll see more of in the next 8 or so moves. Ng5 did TWO things: it posed an immediate tactical challenge that we had to answer (the mate threat on f7) AND it put that N in a position to bear down on d6 (something it was not ready to do when it sat on f3).
If this is what we continue to see, then remember: we have barely more than 8 moves from right now in which to bring 5 more defenders to our little d pawn or it, and our center, will be lost. Ideally, those 8 or so moves will also give US opportunities for counterattack.
Kibitzing
