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Mar-11-07
 | | lostemperor: Square Ranker Linares 2007.
Score,UserID
Maximum score: 250 (arbitrary)
Rank,Score,UserID
♔181,YouRang
♕171,DCP23
♕171,firebyrd
159,cu8sfan
157,kolobok
151,ahmadov
146,suenteus po 147
139,cromat
139,Marvol
135,Bobak Zahmat
135,iron maiden
135,yalie
134,ELO
133,Elixir of Life
131,hitman84
131,percyblakeney
131,TIMER
129,amadeus
129,chessmoron
120,lostemperor
119,Dim Weasel
115,Legend
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
727,Carlsen
564,Topalov
388,Morozevich
313,Leko
139,Anand
111,Ivanchuk
89,Svidler
This makes <YouRang> Double Crown Winner of Linares 2007!! I think I can say it now, since it seems obvious. I made a deal with <YouRang> and <cu8sfan>. They get to win the prediction contest I organise, if I get at least a medal in their prediction contests ;-) |
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| Mar-11-07 | | NakoSonorense: You forgot to include me on your list... for the second time. :( |
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Mar-11-07
| | lostemperor: <NakoSonorense> no, I did not forget you this time! But you have only submitted 7 participants instead of 8. Sorry that I saw that too late. Next time please make sure your predictions are submitted correctly. |
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| Mar-11-07 | | NakoSonorense: Oops. My bad... Yeah, next time I'll double check that. Thanks! |
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Mar-11-07
 | | WannaBe: <NakoSonorense> Don't feel too bad, I forgot that Radj. dropped out and was replaced by Ivanchuk, and didn't even submit a new list! =( |
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| Mar-11-07 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> LOL! I never even imagined that I'd do well in the final standings contest. I picked Morozevich to do well and Carlsen to do poorly. So guess what? Carlsen starts of Linares in 1st and Morozevich spends several rounds in the cellar. But Moro finished with a flurry of wins, while Carlsen sagged a bit. So, despite my dismal performance in the game prediction contests, Linares 2007 will be a memorable one for me afterall! Thanks <lostemperor>. :-) |
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| Mar-11-07 | | yalie: thanks lostemperor for organizing a great contest. hopefully I'll do better in the future. |
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Mar-12-07
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> just to show, it is a disadvantage running a prediction contest! You don't seem to win in yours, I in mine :) |
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Mar-12-07
| | lostemperor: I made a mistake with the expression "Bang bang" Morozevich. I meant to say Boom Boom" Morozevich as in Boris "Boom Boom" Becker, since bang also means something different in English. |
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Mar-12-07
| | lostemperor: Carlsen shared 2nd standing is a surprise for almost everyone (including Carlsen perhaps) as I read. It was something like the second best performance of a 16 year old ever (after Kamsky)! It happens every now and then (maybe frequently now then before). Carlsen was the absolute underdog. As for Topalov, one can have an off tournament now and then, he has won many first prizes lately. ♔
Best prediction on CARLSEN(2/3): <Elixir of Life> prediction Carlsen 4th place! Correct prediction on TOPALOV(7/8): <DCP23> prediction Topalov 7th place! (followed by <cu8sfan> 5th!) Correct prediction on MOROZEVICH(2/3): <YouRang> prediction Morozevich 2nd and <Hitman84> prediction Morozevich 3rd! (followed by <DCP23> (1st); <Bobak Zahmat>, <Dim weasel>, <firebyrd> (4th)) Best prediction on LEKO(7/8): <Ahmadov> <cromat> <DCP23> <firebyrd> <kolobok> <TIMER> (Leko 5th all) ♕ |
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| Mar-12-07 | | ahmadov: At least, I was good at predicting about Leko... |
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| Mar-12-07 | | YouRang: I was just reviewing my picks, to find out why I did so well. My picks were as follows (and their actual finish): 1. Aronian (4t)
2. Morozevich (2t)
2. Anand (1)
4. Topalov (7t)
4. Leko (7t)
6. Svidler (4t)
7. Ivanchuk (6)
8. Carlsen (2t)
Of course I took a big penalty [-6] on Carlsen, but then most of were tripped up by Carlsen, so it didn't hurt too bad, relatively speaking. The main things that helped me were:
(1) Nailing Morozevich at 2nd [-0], whereas most people took big penalties for having him near the bottom. (2) By having both Topalov and Leko finishing 4th, I only suffered moderate penalties [-3], whereas most people were heavily penalized for having Topalov or Leko (or both) doing well (especially Topalov who many figured would finish 1st). (3) I had only very small penalties [-1] for both Anand and Ivanchuk. I suppose that most people expected Anand to do well, but Ivanchuk was hard to place. |
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Mar-12-07
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> that is a correct analysis. I think specially point 2 <having both Topalov and Leko finishing 4th> has been the most advantegeous for you! |
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Mar-12-07
| | lostemperor: <ahmadov> the 2007 standings after two tournaments are still coming up:). |
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| Mar-13-07 | | ahmadov: <lostemperor> You mean I am not hopeless? :) |
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Mar-13-07
| | lostemperor: <ahmadov> not in the least:) New 2007 championship standings.
8,positionalgenius
7,ahmadov
7,Bobak Zahmat
7,suenteus po 147
6,cu8sfan
6,DCP23
6,firebyrd
6,YouRang
5,iron maiden
4,babakova
4,lostemperor
4,percyblakeney
4,TIMER
2,amadeus
2,ELO
2,kolobok
2,Xaurus
2,yalie
2,Zebra
1,cromat
1,Marvol
1,mikejaqua
<ahmadov> and <suenteus po 147> are closing in the top position of <positionalgenius>, together with <Bobak Zahmat>. The winners of Linares follow closely at 6 points. For the Square rankings, I think should do the medal system YouRang has adopted. Seems the fun way to do (and right way). This will of course also includes the usual absolute ranking and this annual ranking. Perhaps I should also keep track of the first prediction contest Corus 2005. I was also thinking about a rating system?! |
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Mar-14-07
| | lostemperor: The next prediction event is Sofia Mtel in April somewhere. Anyone knows if the line up is known? Immediately following is the candidates matches prediction event, starting in May. These pairings are known: 1. Aronian - Carlsen
2. Leko - Gurevich
3. Ponomariov - Rublevsky
4. Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov
5. Bacrot - Kamsky
6. Grischuk - Malakhov
7. Polgar - Bareev
8. Shirov - Adams
These are the long postponed matches, which was scheduled last year. Several predictions were given. I suggest all make new predictions since this was a long time ago. An example on how to give a prediction here: 1. Aronian - Carlsen 3+ - 3
meaning you think the match will be a draw/tie, Aronian winning the tie-breakers. For the rest each deviation, in your prediction, will deduct one point plus one point bonus for a correct winner. The match may take the full 6 games. So play continue if someone will reach the necessary 3 1/2 points. But if you think that one player will crush the other with 3 1/2- 1 1/2 you should make this prediction. If this happens it will be the correct prediction, even if play continues. |
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Mar-14-07
| | lostemperor: I have the medal ranking, for the final prediction contests from Corus 2005 till now! Of course there are a lot more medals, but following <YouRang> I will only put the winners of gold into the Hall of Fame but I will keep track of the other metals also:)! Medals final standings prediction contest:
♔♔♔ WannaBe (F5)(Dt5)(05t)
♔♔YouRang(Lt7/Ls7)
♔♕Appaz(L5)(Lt6)
♔♕dimradil (06t)(C6t)
♔♕percyblakeney (06t)(Lt6)
♔♕Tassadar (06t)(C6t)
♔♕DCP23 (Lt7/Ls7)
♔♕firebyrd(Lt7/Ls7)
♔♖Troewa(M5)(Dt5)
♔TIMER (05t)
♔djmercury (L6)
♔Ezzy(C6)
♔mikejaqua(D6)
♔positionalgenius(C7)
♔babakova(Mt6)
♔cu8sfan(Lt7)
♔Joshka(Mt6)
♔Like a GM(Ct5)
♔Montreal1666(Mt6)
♔SnoopDogg(Dt5)
♔suenteus po 147(Ct5)
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♗ Bronze
C=Corus
L=Linares
M=Mtel
D=Dortmund
F=Fide (San Luis)
t=tie
s=square ranker
(0)6=year
Note: for Corus6 tournament, I made a correction. The CONMAN software gave three winners. But that was the last tournament I calculated "manually". There were some players who has shared standings in the tournament itself (or perhaps in the prediction). I took the average standing of a player (instead the highest). After recalculations <Ezzy> came up on sole top (though he was given the same championship points). |
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Mar-15-07
| | lostemperor: As for the championship points of Linares, maybe there are some questions. At least I had some when I must give them. The <firebyrd> system goes like this. Single winner 6 points
winner(s) 5 points
top 10% 4 points
top 20% 3 points
top 30% 2 points
top 50% 1 point
Now I use to take it as proportionaly as possible with a maximum of 8 points (was 10 in the first year 05). This system (and the one I derived) has worked well in thew past tournaments. For Linares07 I did encounterd some practical problems (in my socalled "proportional" derivation). These are the top 50%
1t,45,cu8sfan
1t,45,DCP23
1t,45,firebyrd
1t,45,YouRang
5,42,suenteus po 147
6t,41,ahmadov
6t,41,iron maiden
6t,41,kolobok
9t,39,cromat
9t,39,Marvol
9t,39,percyblakeney
9t,39,TIMER
9t,39,yalie
Note there are 13 on this list but 50% of a total of 21 participants is say 11. Well the ones with 39 points is easy: they get one championship point. The winners should get 5 points in the original firebyrd system but if it was completely proportional they would have gotten 7 points since they got 6 points more than the 50% score. So I decided to give them 6 points. Now the difficulty lies in the people who earned 41 points. They are 20-30% should be given 2 points at the original system. Only proportionaly there is a problem. They should have gotten <3> points in comparison to the people who earned 39 points, since they have a 2 point overscore of 50%, but They should get <2> points in comparison to the winners who has gotten 6 points (45-4=41). So here is where I had to make a decision. Give 3 points or 2 points to the people who had 41 points? I chose 2 points, though it might just aswell, have been 3 points! As to suenteus po who earned 42 points, he should be given three point being both in the top 20% (if only just) and proportionaly aswell. Here is where a rating system may come in handy since that can be completely proportional (which I'm working on). Hope this helps for those interested. |
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| Mar-15-07 | | DCP23: <lostemperor: The next prediction event is Sofia Mtel in April somewhere. Anyone knows if the line up is known?> I was hoping for a Melody Amber prediction contest..? |
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| Mar-15-07 | | ahmadov: <DCP23: <lostemperor: The next prediction event is Sofia Mtel in April somewhere. Anyone knows if the line up is known?>
I was hoping for a Melody Amber prediction contest..?> Yes, that would be exiting... |
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Mar-16-07
| | lostemperor: Guys, I just saw Melody Amber has a pretty impressive line up but I'm busy enough as it is. Besides the tournament starts tomorrow and people might get bored having a fifth prediction event in four months:) |
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Mar-16-07
| | lostemperor: Prediction metrics:
I make up some kind of rating system for statistical purpose. The idea is this: to have a prediction rating (at least four tournaments is required for a somewhat reliable rating), to have your highest achieved rating recorded and to have the highest tournament performance ratings recorded. For this I take the starting position of 2200 which was Fide's rating list start. I think anyone bold enough to try the prediction contest deservese at least 2200 starting position. Every point achieved over 50% score will get you an additional 15 "Elo" points to your total. 15 points is what you get in my country if you beat an equal opponent. Believe me it is not so much. A 50% score will not change your rating. Each point below will deduct 15 rating points. From Linares 2007, instead of 15, only 10 points can be achieved, but 5 points (per point) can be achieved from the square ranker for "bigger" gains or losses. |
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Mar-16-07
| | lostemperor: <DCP23, ahmadov> Speaking of Amber, out of curiosity, what do you think the rapid/blindfold Melody Amber results will be? You guys are doing great in the prediction contest. My guess is: 1.Anand 2.Morozevich 3.Leko 4.Carlsen 5.Radjabov 6.Kramnik 7.Ivanchuk, 8.Aronian 9.van Wely 10.Vallejo 11.Svidler, 12.Gelfand. Maybe we can have our own private contest /-)
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| Mar-16-07 | | ahmadov: <lostemperor>
1. Radjabov
2. Anand
3. Aronian
4. Gelfand
5. Ivanchuk
6. Kramnik
7. Morozevich
8. Carlsen
9. Svidler
10. Leko
11. van Wely
12. Vallejo
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