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Feb-21-07
 | | lostemperor: <ahmadov: Have you ever thought about changing your avatar?> Who me? Never I will. I had my userID named after the last emperor Pu Yi and had about four different avatars before. Untill I saw this Yoda avatar. Then I knew it! This is my alter ego hehehe. And I did not even knew my name, being probably the only creature in this universe not to have seen Star Wars the movies. But one can always check wikipedia.org who am I http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoda I did think of juveniling though. Making a digital composition of 5 year old Yoda. I became Pikachu! |
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| Feb-21-07 | | ahmadov: Your avatar always reminds me that famous character in The Lord of The Rings... |
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Feb-21-07
| | lostemperor: Which character is that? Hobbits? |
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| Feb-22-07 | | ahmadov: Maybe, I am not that good at movies to remember names. |
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Feb-22-07
| | lostemperor: Yes, I know exactly which character you mean http://www.postersale.nl/product_vi... and I do see some resemblance, except I'm better looking right? |
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| Feb-22-07 | | ahmadov: <lostemperor: Yes, I know exactly which character you mean http://www.postersale.nl/product_vi... and I do see some resemblance, except I am better looking right?> Quite right! You are Madonna compared to him ;) |
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| Feb-22-07 | | ahmadov: Yes, I saw the picture. It is exactly the one I meant. |
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| Feb-23-07 | | Dim Weasel: <<Elixir of Life> Why is Carlsen so underrated? I think he should do better this time.> Very well predicted! |
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| Feb-23-07 | | Elixir of Life: <Dim Weasel>
Thanks for the praise. |
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Feb-23-07
| | lostemperor: Remember, a few pages back, I estimated Carlsen to be in the top 10 of all time greatest. A kibitzer call that list bull @#$%! |
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Feb-24-07
| | lostemperor: Carlsen fooled us, except for <Elixir of Life>, by playing bad tournaments like Corus, and now playing in Morelia as we know he can play:-) |
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| Feb-24-07 | | Elixir of Life: <lostemperor> And even he did fool me. I should've put him at first place, not 4th! Argh! |
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Feb-24-07
| | lostemperor: <Elixir of Life> you did a marvelous prediction on Carlsen (4th). No need to worry yet, maybe Carlsen will finish 4th anyway ;) Yet surprisingly, I just ran <YouRang>'s Conman software and you are not first! Actual standings Morelia-Linares after 5 rounds:
1.Carlsen
2.Aronian
2.Anand
4.Svidler
4.Leko
4.Ivanchuk
7.Topalov
7.Morozevich
♔
Now the current rankings in the final standings' prediction contest after 5 rounds of 14: Rank,Score,UserID
1,13,kolobok
2t,11,ahmadov
2t,11,cromat
2t,11,cu8sfan
5t,10,lostemperor
5t,10,suenteus po 147
7t,9,chessmoron
7t,9,Elixir of Life
7t,9,iron maiden
7t,9,Marvol
7t,9,TIMER
7t,9,yalie
13t,7,Legend
13t,7,YouRang
15t,5,DCP23
15t,5,firebyrd
15t,5,percyblakeney
18t,3,amadeus
18t,3,Bobak Zahmat
18t,3,Dim Weasel
21,1,hitman84
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
140,Carlsen
100,Topalov
38,Ivanchuk
36,Svidler
32,Anand
32,Morozevich
27,Aronian
24,Leko
Goes without saying, that the biggest deviation is on Carlsen at the moment! This is exciting. I will run an update at the tournament's halftime again :) |
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Feb-24-07
| | lostemperor: Just to compare to what professor Elo would have predicted according to his rating system, the following would have been his list (I give players who have almost the same rating, within less than 5 rating points from each other as equal in ranking/points (normally I take 10 points difference as equal): Predictions according to Elo (the ratings):
1. Topalov 2783
1. Anand 2779
3. Ivanchuk 2750
3. Leko 2749
5. Aronian 2744
5. Morozevich 2741
7. Svidler 2728
8. Carlsen 2690
In that above mentioned ranking list, Elo would have gotten 4 points, what is equal to 18th place in the prediction contest so far, after 5 rounds. |
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Feb-26-07
| | lostemperor: Halfway standings Morelia-Linares:
1. Anand, Carlsen 4.5
3. Ivanchuk 4
4. Aronian, Svidler 3.5
6. Leko, Topalov 3
8. Morozevich 2
Maximum score: 64
Rankings prediction contest on final standings after 7 rounds (of 14) Score,UserID
49,kolobok
47,ahmadov
47,cu8sfan
47,TIMER
47,yalie
45,iron maiden
44,lostemperor
44,suenteus po 147
43,cromat
42,ELO
41,DCP23
41,Elixir of Life
41,firebyrd
39,amadeus
39,chessmoron
39,Legend
39,Marvol
39,percyblakeney
37,YouRang
33,Bobak Zahmat
33,Dim Weasel
31,hitman84
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
147,Carlsen
86,Topalov
57,Leko
50,Morozevich
49,Ivanchuk
41,Anand
39,Svidler
32,Aronian
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Mar-05-07
| | lostemperor: Linares standings after 10 rounds:
1.Anand
2.Ivanchuk
2.Carlsen
4.Svidler
4.Aronian
6.Topalov
7.Leko
7.Morozevich
Standings prediction contest after 10 rounds:
Maximum score: 64
Score,UserID
49,TIMER
49,yalie
47,ahmadov
47,cu8sfan
47,kolobok
44,lostemperor
44,suenteus po 147
43,cromat
43,iron maiden
42,ELO
41,amadeus
41,DCP23
41,firebyrd
39,chessmoron
39,Elixir of Life
39,Legend
39,Marvol
39,percyblakeney
37,YouRang
33,Bobak Zahmat
33,Dim Weasel
31,hitman84
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
125,Carlsen
86,Topalov
79,Leko
65,Ivanchuk
41,Anand
39,Svidler
34,Morozevich
32,Aronian |
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Mar-05-07
 | | WannaBe: I *JUST* realized I did not revise my picks/standings. Whaaaaaa! =( |
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Mar-08-07
| | lostemperor: Sorry <WannaBe> nothing I can do about that anymore. A lot has happened in two rounds! Carlsen, Svidler and Morozevich won. Ivanchuk and Leko lost. The former twice! It sure must have its effect on the prediction contest rankings after 12 rounds. Linares-Morelia standings after round 12:
1.Anand
2.Carlsen
3.Svidler
4.Aronian
5.Topalov
5.Ivanchuk
5.Morozevich
8.Leko
Rankings prediction contest after 12 rounds:
Maximum score: 64
Score,UserID
49,cu8sfan
45,ahmadov
45,cromat
45,firebyrd
45,kolobok
44,suenteus po 147
43,iron maiden
43,TIMER
43,yalie
42,ELO
42,lostemperor
41,DCP23
41,Marvol
41,percyblakeney
41,YouRang
39,amadeus
39,chessmoron
39,Elixir of Life
37,Bobak Zahmat
37,Dim Weasel
37,Legend
35,hitman84
<cu8sfan> has taken the lead! Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
125,Carlsen
101,Leko
66,Topalov
55,Svidler
41,Anand
40,Morozevich
35,Ivanchuk
32,Aronian |
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Mar-08-07
| | lostemperor: However the CONMAN software of <YouRang> can also calculate the least square differences. Here is what he said about it: <The "least squares" system favors several small errors over a few big ones. This is the most common method used in curve-fitting a given set of points (you would rather the curve be reasonably close to all the points than being very close to some, but way off on others> So meaning if your prediction difference with the actual standing is 2 it will count square 2 (=-4). If the difference is 3 the deviation is 9 (square 3). Here is how Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 140 (arbitrary)
Rank,Score,UserID
1,79,kolobok
2,71,ahmadov
3t,67,cromat
3t,67,firebyrd
5,63,cu8sfan
6,61,TIMER
7,59,iron maiden
8,55,YouRang
9,53,Elixir of Life
10,52,suenteus po 147
11t,49,Marvol
11t,49,yalie
13,45,DCP23
14,43,chessmoron
15t,42,ELO
15t,42,lostemperor
17t,39,amadeus
17t,39,percyblakeney
19,29,Legend
20,27,Bobak Zahmat
21,21,hitman84
22,17,Dim Weasel
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
727,Carlsen
493,Leko
228,Topalov
173,Svidler
139,Anand
94,Morozevich
79,Ivanchuk
78,Aronian |
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Mar-08-07
| | WannaBe: <lostemperor> I know, that's why I was crying! =( Waaaaaaa! |
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| Mar-09-07 | | ahmadov: Hmmm, I am almost always second in the lists... |
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| Mar-09-07 | | Elixir of Life: <ahmadov>
You must now know how hard Anand's life is... Hehe :) |
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| Mar-09-07 | | ahmadov: <Elixir of Life: <ahmadov> You must now know how hard Anand's life is... Hehe :)> Exactly. But at the same time I can feel his superiority. LOL |
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Mar-11-07
| | lostemperor: <Elixir of Life, Ahmadov> Well Anand is world #1 for the first time! Must be a strange feeling for him after being perpetual #2 ;-). Anand must know: perservere and if you're good, you will prevail! |
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Mar-11-07
| | lostemperor: Final standings Linares:
1.Anand 8.5
2.Morozevich 7.5
2.Carlsen 7.5
4.Svidler 7
4.Aronian 7
6.Ivanchuk 6.5
7.Topalov 6
7.Leko 6
Here are the results of the final standings prediction contest. There will now be two rankers now. The Absolute Ranker (standard). This is the way I have always calculated the points. New will be the Square Ranker. This is the square deviation of your predictions. So in case there are surprises, you can be rewarded by least square deviation deductions. And there were plenty surprises this tournament! "Canon fodder" Carlsen as chessbase said some writers called him before the tournament and "Bang bang" Morozevich as positive surprises. "No more draws" Leko and "read my lips" Topalov as negative surprises ;-) Like I said before the tournament: 'These are a tough ones to predict, I think you agree'!! Absolute ranker
Maximum score: 64
I introduced the medals almost a year ago. I will now also use the chess symbols as <YouRang> does for uniformity sake. It is only appropriate for a chess prediction contest! score,userID
Four winners of Gold!! (is this even possible:)
♔45,cu8sfan
♔45,DCP23
♔45,firebyrd
♔45,YouRang
42,suenteus po 147
41,ahmadov
41,iron maiden
41,kolobok
39,cromat
39,Marvol
39,percyblakeney
39,TIMER
39,yalie
38,ELO
38,lostemperor
37,Bobak Zahmat
37,chessmoron
37,Elixir of Life
37,hitman84
35,amadeus
35,Dim Weasel
33,Legend
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
125,Carlsen
106,Topalov
84,Morozevich
79,Leko
41,Anand
39,Svidler
35,Ivanchuk
32,Aronian |
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