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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 35 OF 285 ·
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| May-08-07 | | kolobok: MY Predictions 1. Topalov
2. Adams
3. Mamedyarov
4. Kamsky
5. Nisipeanu
6. Krishnan Topalov will return to his best form will win easily this tournament at his home :) |
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| May-08-07 | | NakoSonorense: F.S.P.:
1. Topalov
2. Memedyarov
3. Adams
4. Kamsky
5. Nisipeanu
6. Sasikiran |
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| May-08-07 | | Robin01: My prediction is:
Topalov
Adams
Mamedyarov
Kamsky
Krishnan
Nisipeanu
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| May-09-07 | | hitman84: My prediction is:
Topalov
Adams
Mamedyarov
Kamsky
Sasikiran
Nisipeanu
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| May-09-07 | | yalie: 1. Topalov +3
2. Mamedyarov +2
3. Sasikiran +1
4. Nisipeanu 0
5. Kamsky -3
6. Adams -3
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| May-09-07 | | ARubinstein: MTEL Predictions:
1. Topalov
2. Mamedyarov
3. Kamsky
4. Nisipeanu
5. Adams
6. Sasikiran |
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May-11-07
 | | lostemperor: Thanks all. Here follows the order of the ChessBookie Game odds: Mtel Masters: Winner 1. Topalov 7,823 1:1 1.91 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 19 chessbucks.
2. Kamsky 3,144 7:2 4.68 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 46 chessbucks
3. Mamedyarov 2,570 9:2 5.72 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 57 chessbucks
4. Adams 1,363 10:1 10.74 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 107 chessbucks.
5. Nisipeanu 285 50:1 51.18 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 511 chessbucks
6. Sasikiran 153 94:1 95.29 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 952 chessbucks |
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May-15-07
| | lostemperor: Halfway standings Mtel:
1.Mamedyarov
2.Adams
3.Sasikiran
3.Nisipeanu
5.Topalov
6.Kamsky
Maximum score: 36
Halfway standings predictioncontest Mtel
Rank,Score,UserID
1,25,yalie
2t,24,cromat
2t,24,ELO
4t,23,amadeus
4t,23,positionalgenius
6t,21,ARubinstein
6t,21,chessmoron
6t,21,iron maiden
6t,21,lostemperor
6t,21,WannaBe
6t,21,YouRang
12t,19,ChessBookie
12t,19,Elixir of Life
12t,19,suenteus po 147
12t,19,TheAlchemist
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
54,Topalov
48,Kamsky
35,Sasikiran
30,Nisipeanu
29,Mamedyarov
23,Adams
Topalov again as a negative surprise. |
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| May-15-07 | | Elixir of Life: <lostemperor> Can you also post the halfway standing of the Bookie Bets? That is:
1. Topalov 7,823
2. Kamsky
3. Mamedyarov
4. Adams
5. Nisipeanu
6. Sasikiran |
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May-16-07
| | lostemperor: <Elixir of Life> if I understand you correctly, I did post that under <ChessBookie> (the order of odds). It is shared 12-15 (last at halfway) with 19 points. |
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May-17-07
| | lostemperor: After some major upsets in yesterday's games things look different again. Sasikiran beat Adams, Kamsky beat Mamedyarov and Topalov getting all warmed up with a second consecutive black win now vs Nisipeanu. The pack is getting closer together (also in the prediction rankings).
Standings after round 6
1.Mamedyarov
1.Sasikiran
3.Topalov
3.Adams
5.Kamsky
5.Nisipeanu
Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 36
Score,UserID
28,ELO
27,positionalgenius
27,yalie
26,cromat
25,amadeus
25,lostemperor
23,ARubinstein
23,CHESSBOOKIE
23,chessmoron
23,Elixir of Life
23,iron maiden
23,suenteus po 147
23,TheAlchemist
23,WannaBe
23,YouRang
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
65,Sasikiran
33,Kamsky
29,Mamedyarov
24,Topalov
16,Adams
8,Nisipeanu
Here the square ranker. This ranker benefits two small mistakes of, say, a total of 4 points over one big mistake of 4 points. Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 155 (arbitrary) Score,UserID
136,yalie
133,ELO
128,amadeus
123,cromat
120,lostemperor
120,positionalgenius
120,TheAlchemist
116,ARubinstein
116,suenteus po 147
112,CHESSBOOKIE
112,chessmoron
112,Elixir of Life
112,iron maiden
112,YouRang
108,WannaBe
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
293,Sasikiran
91,Kamsky
79,Mamedyarov
46,Topalov
28,Adams
8,Nisipeanu
Probably things will look all different again after todays round:) |
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| May-17-07 | | YouRang: I'd just like to say how much I appreciate <WannaBe>'s participation in this contest. :-) |
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| May-17-07 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> I noticed your comment: <Maximum score: 155 (arbitrary)>> Actually, that number (155) was computed as the most extreme penalty that one could theoretically get with the worst possible prediction. By using this value as the maximum score, someone could (theoretically) score 0 points -- but they would never get a negative score. It's interesting that attempting to get the worst possible score is just as difficult as getting the best possible score (and in this particular tournament, with the standings being upside-down from what most people would expect, it might just win!). |
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May-18-07
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> guess what, your CONMAN software gave 55 as maximum points! But I gave everyone a bonus of 100 points;) You see, you told me that your program would not give negative points. As it turns out it did! In both rankers. The maximum score the program gave in the absolute ranker was 15. So it has now happened more than once, also in Linares, that people get -1 or less. I will refrain from giving negative points:) |
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| May-18-07 | | YouRang: OOPS - back to the drawing board.
However, I'm not sure I understand: In the contest, <WannaBe> had the lowest score with 108 points, so it seems to me that if you didn't add 100 bonus points, he would have had 8 points, no? |
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May-21-07
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> yes, that is correct, <WannaBe> had 8 points from 55 in the square renker. I was not quite clear on that. Up till then there was no negative score for the square ranker,. Not that I have seen. But when Sasikiran won the next round there were. Nevertheless the software works perfect, except for giving a few negative scores that is;). In the final prediction ranking coming up the CONMAN gives only one negative score in each ranker (I will adjust, like before). Át least the software isn't biased towards its programmer! |
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May-21-07
| | lostemperor: Here the final results of Mtel. A remarkable one, 4 players onm shared second. 1.Topalov 5.5
2.Mamedyarov 5
2.Kamsky 5
2.Nisipeanu 5
2.Sasikiran 5
6.Adams 4.5
I am only aware of one kind of result that is somewhat similar to this: Linares 2002 if I remember correctly, where kasparov finished first and six people finished shared second or last. This gives these relative close prediction standings: Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 36
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♗ Bronze
Rank,Score,UserID
♔30,yalie
♕28,ARubinstein
♖26,lostemperor
♖26,TheAlchemist
♖26,WannaBe
26,ChessBookie
25,cromat
25,ELO
24,positionalgenius
24,suenteus po 147
22,amadeus
22,chessmoron
22,Elixir of Life
22,iron maiden
20,YouRang
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
50,Sasikiran
45,Nisipeanu
39,Adams
16,Kamsky
16,Mamedyarov
6,Topalov |
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May-21-07
| | lostemperor: Here the square ranker, where your deviation is squared Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation
Maximum score: 155
Score,UserID
141,yalie
133,ARubinstein
129,WannaBe
125,ChessBookie
125,lostemperor
125,TheAlchemist
124,ELO
122,cromat
121,positionalgenius
117,suenteus po 147
115,Elixir of Life
109,amadeus
109,chessmoron
109,iron maiden
99,YouRang
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
178,Sasikiran
143,Nisipeanu
127,Adams
36,Mamedyarov
28,Kamsky
10,Topalov
Since the same people won the same medals here(!), I will not give extra medals for this ranker for now. (I will give specific guidelines for this next season). |
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May-21-07
 | | WannaBe: Woo Woo!! Third, third I say!! No need to turn my monitor upside-down this time! |
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| May-21-07 | | kolobok: Lostemperor could you post full list i wanna know how many points i scored, how points system works ty :) |
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| May-21-07 | | YouRang: Grooaaan...http://www.addamsfamily.com/addams/... Hey, just a few days ago, <WannaBe> was dead last and I was next to dead last. Now he's winning a medal and I'm still dead last? FIX! FIX! <lostemperor><Át least the software isn't biased towards its programmer!> A new version is on it's way! ;-)
But really, thanks for running the contest. In hindsight, I think that picking Adams to finish first may have been a mistake. :-p |
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May-24-07
| | lostemperor: Ow, I noticed four names are missing from the list! <kolobok>, <Robin01>, <hitman84> and <Nakosonorense>! The software did not take these predictions cause it either did not recognise the name Krishnan, because there were no numbers before the names(!) or just because of a small typo. Here are the adjusted list:
Maximum score: 36
Score,UserID
30,yalie
28,ARubinstein
26,CHESSBOOKIE
26,lostemperor
26,TheAlchemist
26,WannaBe
25,cromat
25,ELO
24,NakoSonorense
24,positionalgenius
24,suenteus po 147
22,amadeus
22,chessmoron
22,Elixir of Life
22,hitman84
22,iron maiden
22,Robin01
21,kolobok
20,YouRang |
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May-25-07
| | lostemperor: Here the points of Mtel for the 2007 championships (the top 50% receive points): 7,yalie
5,ARubinstein
3,lostemperor
3,TheAlchemist
3,WannaBe
3,CHESSBOOKIE
2,cromat
2,ELO
1,NakoSonorense
1,positionalgenius
1,suenteus po 147
This leads to the following 2007 standings:
9,positionalgenius ♔
9,yalie ♔
8,suenteus po 147
7,Bobak Zahmat ♕
7,ahmadov ♖
7,lostemperor♖
6,cu8sfan ♔
6,DCP23 ♔
6,firebyrd ♔
6,YouRang ♔
5,ARubinstein♕
5,iron maiden
4,babakova
4,ELO
4,percyblakeney
4,TIMER
3,CHESSBOOKIE♖
3,TheAlchemist♖
3,WannaBe ♖
3,cromat
2,amadeus
2,kolobok
2,Xaurus
2,yalie
2,Zebra
1,Marvol
1,mikejaqua
1,NakoSonorense
For the medal ranker, since in 80-90% the winners of the absolute ranker are similar to the winners of the square ranker, I have decide not count the square ranker for the medals unless the winner of gold here is another person than the goldwinner of the absolute ranker. Then three extra metals will be given. This is for uniformity sake since I have not done/counted the square ranker in the past also. So I have to regret that I have to cancel the square ranker medals given in Linares07, although deservingly so, for above mentioned reasons. I think the square ranker, calculated by <YouRang>'s software is a just as important result to have a good insight in the predictions but if the winners are largely similar to the absolute ranker it will only count as an important and interesting statistic asset. |
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May-25-07
| | lostemperor: Btw. zippadeedooda, I got my first medal here:) Bronze! |
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May-25-07
| | lostemperor: Who knows when the candidate matches are starting and how much interest is there for the precdiction contest on the candidate matches? There was a lot of interest but that was almost a year ago:) The matches are starting soon I think (from the Fide site players leave for Elista today, so the match might start in a day ot two)? 1. Aronian - Carlsen
2. Leko - Gurevich
3. Ponomariov - Rublevsky
4. Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov
5. Bacrot - Kamsky
6. Grischuk - Malakhov
7. Polgar - Bareev
8. Shirov - Adams
Six games a match. One point bonus for correct winner. If a tie-break (3-3) a + sign indicates the winner. The score must be for a total six games a match but in case you think a player wins by 3.5 - 0.5 (4-0 etc.) you are allowed to submit this score. If the match continue the remaining games will be counted as draws. A correct score give you the maximum points. Each point your prediction differs from the actual result will deduct one point. |
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