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May-13-08
 | | lostemperor: Ivanchuk leads halfway the tournament with 5 out 5! Surprising? Maybe:) Standings halfway
1.Ivanchuk 5
2.Topalov 3.5
3.Radjabov, Cheparinov 2
5.Aronian 1.5
6.Bu 1 |
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May-13-08
| | lostemperor: Halfway standings <Prediction Game on Final standings Mtel Sophia 2008> (while still having to put the finishing touch to the Baku 2008 results). Thanks for bearing with me Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 25
<Aurora> leading!
Rank,Score,UserID
1,18,Aurora
2,17,lostemperor
3,16,brankat
4t,14,ahmadov
4t,14,NakoSonorense
4t,14,nimh
4t,14,percyblakeney
4t,14,rogge
4t,14,yalie
10t,13,ELO
10t,13,TheGladiatres
12t,12,CHESSBOOKIE
12t,12,chessmoron
12t,12,DCP23
15t,10,SwitchingQuylthulg
15t,10,whiteshark
15t,10,YouRang |
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May-13-08
| | lostemperor: In the Square Ranker, which squares your predictions' deviations; so two smaller deviations of say a total 4 favor one deviation of 4. Here a slightly different order: Square Ranker
Maximum score: 55
Rank,Score,UserID
1,43,lostemperor
2,40,Aurora
3t,30,brankat
3t,30,nimh
3t,30,yalie
6,28,ahmadov
7,26,rogge
8t,24,CHESSBOOKIE
8t,24,NakoSonorense
8t,24,percyblakeney
11,20,chessmoron
12t,19,ELO
12t,19,TheGladiatres
14,18,DCP23
15,10,YouRang
16,8,whiteshark
17,2,SwitchingQuylthulg |
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May-13-08
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <lostemperor: 17,2,SwitchingQuylthulg> Is that some sort of record? ;-) |
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May-13-08
| | lostemperor: <Switch> no it isn't hehehe. The contest software give an arbitrary maximum points so that no one will have negative scores in either ranker. <YouRang> who made the software assured me of this! But it has happen more than once now that negative scores do occur especially at the beginning of a tournament. I use to give extra points so noone has negative scores. This time I did not since there were no minus scores. I did however gave 10 extra points in the absolute ranker to the software results since I don't like 0 either! =D |
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May-13-08
| | lostemperor: Oops, while checking, I see I still forgot to correct <DrawingIsLife> predictions, which he attentively mentioned, so his old wrong format predictions are not read by the software. Speak about the devil, he has 8 points in the absolute ranker, which happens to be an example of minus score (-2) given by the CONMAN software what <YouRang> has sworn to me will never happen! :) |
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| May-13-08 | | nimh: <I do have to ask when did you post your prediction.> I'm sorry but I don't remember exactly. In any case, the games had started already when I posted my prediction. |
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May-14-08
| | lostemperor: Thanks <nimh>. Let's do it this way: you're in it but not for the contest. Unfortunately I have no other choice. This game was a last minute decision and I would like to have you in it but I can't make anything else from it. Sorry about this. |
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May-15-08
| | lostemperor: ROUND 6: Topalov and Cheparinov won. Standings after r6 in Sophia: 1.Ivanchuk
2.Topalov
3.Cheparinov
4.Radjabov
5.Aronian
6.Bu
For the prediction standings, following my relay with SwitchingQuylThulg (I hope I spell this correctly) I will take the minimum maximum points of the software calculator without the 10 points bonus which I gave. After all it is only the deviation of your prediction with the actual standings that matters. Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 15
Rank,Score,UserID
1,9,Aurora
2,8,lostemperor
3t,5,brankat
3t,5,nimh
3t,5,yalie
6t,3,ahmadov
6t,3,CHESSBOOKIE
6t,3,chessmoron
6t,3,DCP23
6t,3,NakoSonorense
6t,3,percyblakeney
6t,3,rogge
13t,2,ELO
13t,2,TheGladiatres
15t,1,SwitchingQuylthulg
15t,1,whiteshark
15t,1,YouRang
18,-1,DrawingIsLife |
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May-15-08
| | lostemperor: Here the Surprise Player list. The Major Upset is .. Aronian. Deviations per player:
52,Aronian
48,Cheparinov
44,Ivanchuk
34,Bu
20,Radjabov
13,Topalov |
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May-16-08
| | lostemperor: No new update in the prediction game yet for today. In round 7 the only win is from Radjabov against Bu. |
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May-16-08
| | lostemperor: ROUND 8: A win for Radjabov and Topalov.
Standings
1.Ivanchuk
2.Topalov
3.Radjabov
4.Cheparinov
5.Aronian
6.Bu
PREDICTION GAME STANDINGS
Absolute Ranker
Maximum score: 15
Rank,Score,UserID
1,9,Aurora
2,8,lostemperor
3,7,brankat
4t,5,ahmadov
4t,5,NakoSonorense
4t,5,nimh
4t,5,percyblakeney
4t,5,rogge
4t,5,yalie
10t,4,ELO
10t,4,TheGladiatres
12t,3,CHESSBOOKIE
12t,3,chessmoron
12t,3,DCP23
15t,1,SwitchingQuylthulg
15t,1,whiteshark
15t,1,YouRang
18,-1,DrawingIsLife
A tight final ahead?! |
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| May-16-08 | | YouRang: Sometimes I regret picking a user name that begins with a 'Y', because the alphabetical sorting makes me *look* worse by placing me way at the bottom of a group of other users that I am actually tied with. See? In this case, I'm doing just as well as <SwitchingQuylThulg> and <whiteshark>. (Okay, maybe this wasn't the best example.) |
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May-17-08
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> I know what you mean. You better make sure to have more points next time (or change your user ID into <AddamsFamily> <;) |
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May-17-08
| | lostemperor: Round 9: Bu beat Topalov! Rest drawn. Prediction update after the final round. |
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May-18-08
| | lostemperor: ROUND 9 UPDATE: On second thought here the prediction standings anyway before the last round: Standings after 9 rounds
1.Ivanchuk
2.Topalov
3.Radjabov
4.Cheparinov
5.Bu, Aronian
pREDICTION gAME STANDINGS: Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 15
Rank,Score,UserID
1,10,Aurora
2,9,lostemperor
3t,6,ahmadov
3t,6,brankat
3t,6,nimh
3t,6,rogge
3t,6,yalie
8t,5,ELO
8t,5,TheGladiatres
10t,4,CHESSBOOKIE
10t,4,chessmoron
10t,4,DCP23
10t,4,NakoSonorense
10t,4,percyblakeney
15t,2,SwitchingQuylthulg
15t,2,whiteshark
15t,2,YouRang
18,0,DrawingIsLife
The race for the medals, is still very intense. And no more negative scores at this moment! |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: For some reason the CONMAN software did not read the prediction of <positionalgenius>! Not because some misspelled name, since the software read only the first three letters of a name. It does now after some changes to the post. Sorry, should have done a check sooner. |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: ROUND 10 final update: Ivanchuk beat Cheparinov.
Final Standings MTel
1. Ivanchuk 8
2. Topalov 6.5
3. Radjabov 5.5
4. Cheparinov 4
5. Bu Xiangzhi, Aronian 3 |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: Although a decisive game nothing changes in the standings since the players in Sophia were pretty much far apart from each other in scores! Here the Final standings in the <PREDICTION GAME M-TEL 2008>: ABSOLUTE RANKER: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 15
In a photo finish race <Aurora> cling the Gold! Your game manager <lostemperor> took Silver. And four tied Bronze! <ahmadov>, <brankat>, <rogge>. and <yalie>. Three of them already in the Hall of Fame. Congratulations! Rank,Score,UserID
♔,10,Aurora
♕,9,lostemperor
♖6,ahmadov
♖,6,brankat
♖,6,rogge
♖,6,yalie
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3t,6,nimh*
8t,5,ELO
8t,5,TheGladiatres
10t,4,CHESSBOOKIE
10t,4,chessmoron
10t,4,DCP23
10t,4,NakoSonorense
10t,4,percyblakeney
15t,2,positionalgenius
15t,2,SwitchingQuylthulg
15t,2,whiteshark
15t,2,YouRang
19,0,DrawingIsLife
*unfortunately did not make the prediction deadline. |
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May-19-08
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: Congrats for medalists, and thanks for the organizer! I see I only just managed to hold on to my last place in Square Ranker :-) |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: In the Square Ranker, where your predictions deviations are squared magnified: <lostemperor> manage to win the Gold by the same smallest margin of 1 point. My first ever Gold in over two years of Prediction Game, what is better than ELO by the way (having also won two Broze along the way) :) <Aurora> took Silver and <Yalie> Bronze to his already whealthy Prize Box! <SQUARE RANKER>
Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 55
Rank,Score,UserID
♔,47,lostemperor
♕,46,Aurora
♖,40,yalie
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3t,40,nimh*
5,34,ahmadov
6t,32,CHESSBOOKIE
6t,32,chessmoron
6t,32,rogge
9,30,brankat
10t,26,DCP23
10t,26,NakoSonorense
10t,26,percyblakeney
13t,25,ELO
13t,25,TheGladiatres
15,20,YouRang
16,18,whiteshark
17,14,positionalgenius
18t,12,DrawingIsLife
18t,12,SwitchingQuylthulg |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: <SwitchingQuylthulg> you did make 12 points what is a lot better than halfway the tournament! ;-) |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: Deviations per player:
56,Aronian
48,Ivanchuk
32,Cheparinov
25,Radjabov
24,Bu
19,Topalov
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| May-19-08 | | ahmadov: Good, it seems I did another good job on your contest! By the way, thanks for running this prediction contest as well! |
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May-19-08
| | lostemperor: The major upset is definitely Aronian low 5-6th standing. Aronian is seeded 1-2, average prediction calculated by the CONMAN software =2.05. In a tournament with only six players this can be crucial when casting the die. ♗-Award for best prediction (ARONIAN (4)) on first surprise player ♗<chessmoron>
♗<yalie>
Having already one ♗-Award they will have the two bishops now!
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♙-Award for third prize on major upset:
♙<ahmadov>
♙<Aurora>
♙<lostemperor>
♙<brankat>
They all predicted Aronian 3rd |
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