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Dec-06-17
 | | MissScarlett: Google @#$%*&!#. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | Domdaniel: AlphaZero is beyond me. And you. |
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: <There's a figure (Figure 2) in the paper that indicates AlphaZero is actually weaker than Stockfish if the thinking time is low enough, and the more thinking time both sides have, the larger AlphaZero's advantage.> I haven't gone through the paper, clearly.
But it's also clear, at least to me, that holding a match at 1 min/move is not indicative of SF's real strength. So why not, instead of 100 meaningless games, run 30 meaningful games at 3 min/move? And let SF use the Syzygy tables too.
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Dec-06-17 | | Magpye: I understand that Stockfish showed up drunk to a lot of the games. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | WannaBe: <Magpye> That confirms the rumour that it drinks like a fish... |
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Dec-06-17
 | | alexmagnus: <And let SF use the Syzygy tables too. > Why that? After all, AlphaZero uses absolutely nothing. No opening book, no endgame bases, just an own neural network. |
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: <<alex> Why that?> Because it's "standard operating procedure".
And because certain endgames are a "solved" problem. Given that alpha-beta searches are basically brute-force anyways, why wouldn't tablebases be allowed? It helps the engine play stronger - and the challenge is for AlphaGo to be king of the hill without qualification. . . |
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: I looked into the paper, and found Figure 2 is the one that <Switch> referred to above. But it's a bit of a joke, as the time scale goes from 10**-1 to 10**1 moves/second (it's a log scale). Who cares what an engine's strength is at 0.1 seconds. And I'd sure like to see the upper limit extend beyond, let's be generous, 60 seconds. I'd also have preferred two 50-game matches against two strong engines, then a 100-game match against only one. Or even three different engines. But that's just me.
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Dec-06-17 | | SChesshevsky: That AlphaZero's going to be equally good to the current top programs shouldn't be surprising. First it has a boatload of past computer vs. computer games to dissect to see what works best and what doesn't work so good. Then if it can learn in one minute what a human might derive in two weeks, for instance, AlphaZero's four hours would be equal to about 9 years, 24 hours a day, of human study. I also read that it played, studied, 700,000 games before it played Stockfish. That would equate to a human playing over 1300 games a week for ten years and learning something from each game. But so far I'm dubious on it being vastly superior to today's top programs. The two games I saw vs. Stockfish, it appeared Stockfish played more than a couple non-optimal moves in the opening or early mid-game getting itself into positions very uncharacteristic for a top computer. Given the limited quality of the results I've seen, it's not clear to me if AlphaZero is even equivalent to best Stockfish or Komodo much less dominant. But I'll guess we'll see if Alpha ever enters some computer v. computer tournament. |
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: <<SChesshevsky:> Stockfish, it appeared Stockfish played more than a couple non-optimal moves in the opening or early mid-game getting itself into positions very uncharacteristic for a top computer.> My experience with SF8 is that it is prone to this kind of thing unless you allow it an extended amount of "crunch" time. I've previously posted examples of baffling irregularities. <<...> But I'll guess we'll see if Alpha ever enters some computer v. computer tournament.> This is indeed the "acid test".
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: I wonder if <AlphaGo> is ready to make a statement about White vs. Black yet? (Maybe it's already in the paper?) |
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Dec-06-17
 | | alexmagnus: <First it has a boatload of past computer vs. computer games to dissect to see what works best and what doesn't work so good.> It didn't play past games, it learned from scratch by self-play. |
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Dec-06-17 | | zanzibar: Table 2 presents the percentage of games played with various openings vs. amount of training time (I think?). If I read the graphs correctly, certain opening just aren't worth playing anymore, as AlphaGo gains experience. Those openings include the following:
French, Sicilian, Spanish and C-K.
Alas, I couldn't even find mention of the Kadas. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | alexmagnus: But this also relativize all those all judgments about how you cannot master chess without knowledge because of the huge number of possible chess games. AlphaZero clearly didn't play even close to that number, yet it mastered it far beyond human comprehension. |
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Dec-06-17 | | Tiggler: The news about AlphaZero surprised me only by how soon it happened. I thought it would be a few more years. Good news for manual laborers and sports stars. They are the only ones who will still have jobs soon. Lawyers, doctors, stock analysts, nuclear weapons designers: all obsolete. |
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Dec-06-17 | | NightKnight: alexmagnus: "But this also relativize all those all judgments about how you cannot master chess without knowledge because of the huge number of possible chess games. AlphaZero clearly didn't play even close to that number, yet it mastered it far beyond human comprehension." Well, AlphaZero does have knowledge, and while it doesn`t use traditional chess knowledge it has TONS of more knowledge than anything else in this world about chess. And mastering chess far beyond human comprehension... nah, that would mean it has changed the whole game itself. Even an unrated amateur like myself can analyze it`s games and understand them. And that also makes this so fascinating; while it reveals something it also doesn`t explain it. |
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Dec-06-17 | | SChesshevsky: << alexmagnus: <First it has a boatload of past computer vs. computer games to dissect to see what works best and what doesn't work so good.>
It didn't play past games, it learned from scratch by self-play.>> Now if the 700,000 games number is correct, I find it hard to believe AlphaZero had no guidance. Without guidance AlphaZero, would likely start learning with a move like 1. a3 or 1.a4. Would seem to make logical sense. How many games would it take for AlphaZero to figure out 1.a3 is no good without either guidance or versus practice games against a strong engine that shortens the learning pattern? It would seem by itself, without some sort of guidance, it would have to go through 1. a3 and all combinations versus all defences, then 1. a4, then 1. b3 , 1. b4 etc. Maybe I'm wrong but that seem's like it would take more than 700,000 games to go through every possible opening combination and get through to an equal middle game. Forget about narrowing it down the ones that are best and then those proceeding to show advantages later in the game. Especially if it's not programmed with some sort of evaluation function to shorten the learning process but has to play out all these games to the end to decide the merits. Given that there will likely be a number of 1.a3's versus a bad defense that might show it a reasonable contender. I'm sure AlphaOne can get to be a top player through it's machine learning process but I'm kind of doubtful on it's ability to do it with "only" 700,000 games and four hours without any guidance. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | alexmagnus: Not 700k Kay's. 700k dates, each step taking some 4k games. So, about 3 billion games. |
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Dec-06-17 | | SChesshevsky: <alexmagnus: Not 700k Kay's. 700k dates, each step taking some 4k games. So, about 3 billion games.> Wow, if it played about 3 billion games in four hours. Then any guidance is probably not necessary. Now, I'm really looking forward to a tournament entry by AlphaOne. Thanks for the clarification. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | alexmagnus: 3 billion games in 3 days. Four hours is the time it took to reach Stockfish level, not the overall training time. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | Domdaniel: <Tiggler> - <Good news for manual laborers and sports stars. They are the only ones who will still have jobs soon. Lawyers, doctors, stock analysts, nuclear weapons designers: all obsolete.> In principle, you're right. But the effect on society of lawyers, doctors, etc losing their jobs would result in massive social instability, which would not be good news for anyone. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | Domdaniel: <SChessevsky> Even if a super-engine had to start with 1.a3 and work its way towards better openings, it should still reach 1.e4/1.d4 in less than 5000 moves, and, after that, find the familiar main lines. It's a question of speed. |
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Dec-06-17 | | Marmot PFL: < <Tiggler> - <Good news for manual laborers and sports stars. They are the only ones who will still have jobs soon. Lawyers, doctors, stock analysts, nuclear weapons designers: all obsolete.> In principle, you're right. But the effect on society of lawyers, doctors, etc losing their jobs would result in massive social instability, which would not be good news for anyone.> Those jobs seem safe for now (who knows?) as machines that can perform delicate medical or dental procedures are still believed to be many years away. Lawyers will still be with us as long as we have juries to persuade. |
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Dec-06-17 | | nok: <AlphaZero surprised me only by how soon it happened.> Its predecessor Giraffe quietly reached IM level about two years ago, whereupon its author was hired by Big G. |
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Dec-06-17
 | | Domdaniel: <Marmot> As a former law student - never a practising lawyer - and a follower of computer tech, I think you may be underestimating the rate of change. |
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