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| Apr-14-06 | | iron maiden: I got 3/3 today on Belov-Kozul, Nikolic-Georgiev, and Izoria-Arutinan. Still have a ways to go before I can break into the top 10. |
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| Apr-14-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <Chessgames Bookie> Could you please disclose to whom these 9 chessbucks belong that are on Kozul winning the European Championships? |
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Apr-14-06
 | | WannaBe: Wooo Wooo!! Cashed 5, discard 3 today! Gonna get rich, gonna quit my job, gonna buy that yacht! :-) |
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Apr-14-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Betting is open on the top boards of the final round of the European Individual Championships. Men's pairings are: Kozul 8 vs Izoria 7
Belov 7 vs Ivanchuk 7 1/2
Inarkiev 7 vs Nikolic 7
Georgiev 7 vs Gurevich 6 1/2
Anastasian 6 1/2 vs Naiditsch 6 1/2
Sakaev 6 1/2 vs Nijboer 6 1/2
Women's pairings are:
Atalik 8 vs Zhukov 7
Gvetadze 7 vs Bosboom 7 1/2
Dembo 7 vs Muzychuk 7
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Apr-14-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: <EmperorAtahualpa> That's confidential information, but if Kozul holds on, then the holder of the winning tickets will skyrocket up on the leader board. <themadhair> We'll see if we can get those numbers for you. |
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Apr-14-06
 | | Sneaky: 2 of those 9 bucks are mine! Mauauahahah! |
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Apr-14-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: <Necessary Truths: Umm, somehow I increased my net worth by 500 chessbucks without winning any bets. It should be 4029 (and still is on the left side of the screen), but reads as 4529 on the leaderboard and on my profile.> Please keep in mind that the leaderboard is not recomputed instantly. It usually is redone once per day (very early morning in the USA) but sometimes we run it in the middle of the day just for fun.
We'll have one of the techies look over the code to make sure that the net-worth is being computed correctly, but I think it's just a matter of the delay between your bets being settled and the leaderboard being remade. |
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| Apr-14-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <2 of those 9 bucks are mine! Mauauahahah!> Boooooooooo, <Sneaky>. :) |
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| Apr-14-06 | | NakoSonorense: I just put all my chessbux on topa. Oh, wait, the betting is not open yet. :( |
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| Apr-15-06 | | Ivan23: Looks like a drawfest today in Kusadasi. I nailed Kozul-Izoria, Georgiev-Gurevich and Inarkiev-Nikolic already. |
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Apr-15-06
| | Sneaky: <European Individual Championship: Winner : Kozul
YOU WIN! COLLECT $1164>
Golly, all this for 2 bucks???
Truth be told, here's my strategy with that event: I put 2 bucks on everybody on the list, then another 20 bucks on "other." I was taking a chance that the winner wouldn't be one of the favorites, and I was right... |
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| Apr-15-06 | | WarmasterKron: Ooh, that Kozul. Twice in a row he let me down, not to mention winning despite my not betting on him. Someone shall have to have a stern word with him. |
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Apr-15-06
| | WannaBe: Seven winners and 1 discard today!! :-) I'm rich, I'm rich!!! |
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| Apr-15-06 | | Necessary Truths: Giantwizard is running away with all the money. |
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Apr-15-06
| | Sneaky: Look you knuckleheads, it's so easy to make money at this game!! I really shouldn't explain this but it's not fair that a few people are running away with it, so I'm going to spill the beans. Here's how you get rich....
Suppose the betting looked like this
Inarkiev 500
Ivanchuk 3600
Draw 2400
Now, what's wrong with this picture? First of all, just because you don't even know who Inarkiev is, doesn't mean he's incapable of winning with the White pieces. Second of all, the odds that Chukky can win with black MUST be smaller than the odds that he'll just draw the game. So the first step is to forget you know who Ivanchuk is. Doesn't matter. In your mind, he's just another random GM with the black pieces. Second step, see where the betting is out of whack. Answer, on Ivanchuk. Third step, make bets on the other two result, and weight them so that you get a good chunk of money whichever one wins. In this case that means you put, perhaps, 50 on Inarkiev (at 10:1 odds, so that will pay you 550) and another 200 or so on the Draw (at better than 3:2 odds, so that will pay you 550 if you win.) Now you're in a bet which costs you 250, and if you win you get 550. You're getting better than 1:1 odds on something which probably has a 60-70% chance of being true. Keep doing that with other bets. If some lunatic puts 2000 on Dembo, bet on her opponent, bet on the draw. In short, put your money where other people DON'T put their money. You'll lose a lot of bets but the ones you win will pay big odds! |
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| Apr-15-06 | | Holden: I'm betting 2000 on Dembo!! Mwa ha ha ha!!
- a friendly passing lunatic |
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| Apr-15-06 | | Holden: Good post <Sneaky>. I would add that in order for your strategy to work, it needs to be close to closing time, otherwise others using the same strategy will change the odds after you bet. An alternate method is to bet big and early and watch a bunch of people like <Sneaky> bet on your player's opponent AND the draw, slanting the odds back to your favor a bit with each bet. The danger there is if no one bites the bait you may get stuck with bad odds. |
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Apr-15-06
| | Sneaky: True, you have to do this near the end of the betting, not at the beginning. Not necessarily at the very last minute, but don't buy yourself into a position based on a premature decision. <if no one bites the bait you may get stuck with bad odds> That's why you should make a smaller bet, see how it works out, then pile on more money if you get the odds you wanted. There's no sense in betting 2000 if there isn't anybody out there willing to take up the other side of that bet. |
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| Apr-15-06 | | Holden: <Sneaky> Based on your strategy, I'm guessing that you're laying money on Svidler, Bacrot, Kamsky, and Ponomariov for Mtel Masters. Hope it's not taboo for me to guess what you're betting on! |
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Apr-16-06
| | Sneaky: That's pretty much my plan, but I haven't committed any money yet. The tourney is still a long way off. I think the real money might be made in the quinella / perfecta pool. Lots of little bets on the weird outcomes, and just hope that it's not Topalov & Anand like everybody thinks. |
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Apr-16-06
 | | lostemperor: <chessbookie> an idea to add even more to the fun of this game. Why not put a sort of a statistics page (or just put it into the bet information after it's paid out) Who made the biggest win on each bet (or second). The biggest odds won by people etc. This is different than some similar proposals already made by people since it's after the results of the bets are known. It looks like statistics seen in forums of <cu8sfan> <lostemperor> and <YouRang> of the prediction contests. I know it give away some information but I think it would be fun (also for the winner). Afterall it's a game, though a serious one. A thought. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | percyblakeney: My betting strategy consists of big bets on a few draws and favourites. Looking at it with hindsight I think 2.60 something on Kozul's 5-minute draw in the last round was a very good odds. But I regret betting lots on Ivanchuk winning the tournament to a much worse odds than that... |
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Apr-16-06
 | | cu8sfan: <Now you're in a bet which costs you 250 ... You'll lose a lot of bets but the ones you win will pay big odds!> True, <Sneaky>, good strategy. The only question is, will you (I) be unlucky enough to be broke by the <lot of bets you'll lose> before you win and get paid <big odds>. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | percyblakeney: We could bet on 33 games in the European Championship and 26 were drawn (very close to 80%). Before the last round 17 of 20 drawn games gave a better odds than 2.10. Even if the draw often has had the lowest odds, it has been a good bet in general. |
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Apr-16-06
| | cu8sfan: <Third step, make bets on the other two result, and weight them so that you get a good chunk of money whichever one wins.> I've been doing some math on this and it turns out, if you really want to weigh the two bets exactly you'd have to solve the elliptical equation a*bx^2 + b*bx + c*by^2 + d*by + e*bxby = 0
where bx and by is the amount of your bet on the outcome x and y. a, b, c, d, and e are parameters of the current bets on X, Y and Z. <cg.com> It's about time we get a math font, with superscripts, subscripts and Greek symbols. (-: |
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