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| Apr-16-06 | | Necessary Truths: <Sneaky> Your strategy won't work for long; I was doing something close to that, but was stymied the last couple of bets by situations where the odds on white-draw-black were almost even. If no long odds exist, you have to start thinking about what you're betting on again and now you've made it so that everyone reading this page will know enough to keep the odds from getting too out-of-wack. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | themadhair: <Sneaky>
I was using your basic strategy reasonably successfully and managed to get to fourth on the leaderboard with a healthy 2712. Then had a day were NONE of the seven bets I made landed and went to -500 in a single day. The method isn't as fullproof as you may think - don't rule out very bad luck.<expanding on the work of cu8sfan>
Start with outcomes A,B and C and suppose that X,Y and Z has already been bet on those outcomes. Say we now bet bx on outcome A and by on outcome B.
If A happens we will win
bx(Y+Z+by)/(bx+X) minus juice and if B happens we will win by(X+Z+bx)/(by+Y) minus juice. We want these two to be equal so equating them and rearranging gives 2(Y-X)bxby + (Y^2+YZ)bx - (X^2+XZ)by + bxby^2 - bx^2by=0 My advice is not to bother with this and slowly bet more in small increments to get the balance you need. |
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Apr-16-06
 | | cu8sfan: <you'd have to solve the elliptical equation
a*bx^2 + b*bx + c*by^2 + d*by + e*bxby = 0 > Most likely you will set a maximum amount C you want to risk so that bx + by = C. Inserting by = C-bx into the elliptical equation you get a quadratic equation which is easily solved. I'm foolproofing now and will then hack the formula into my pocket calculator for later use. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | who: I think they should have a bet on whether Topalov-Kramnik will take place. |
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Apr-16-06
| | cu8sfan: <who> I'd bet against it. Turns out there was a mistake in my calculations, I'm doing them again. I get terms of the third order, bx^2*by and by^2*bx. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | themadhair: How about a useful equation? As you probably already noticed when you make a bet you change the odds. To work out the potential payoff for your bet use the formula projected payoff = bXY/(X+b) where
b is the amount you want to bet, X is the total amount that has already been bet on that outcome and Y is the decimal odds for the outcome. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | acirce: So what now to bet on before MTel? How about "Will Topalov-Kramnik take place?" ;-) |
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Apr-16-06
 | | lostemperor: So according to Sneaky's strategy I should bet on Kramnik. I sure will! :) |
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| Apr-16-06 | | naamloos: I dont think tickets are carried over after a leg, so it would not be possible to have bettings on the topalov-kramnik match. |
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| Apr-16-06 | | nsteinme: <Bookie> If I take a loan out from the shark, does that amount add into my net worth? Does the loan shark close some time before the Spring Leg ends? And when does the spring leg end? Thanks. |
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Apr-16-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Let me restate something I said a few days ago:
<<
The object of the game is to amass as many chessbucks as possible, but only in terms of net worth. When you started with 1000 chessbucks you might have run straight to the loanshark who would lend you 500 more, but then your net worth is 1500 - 500, it's still 1000, so you haven't really gained anything. To make matters worse, the loanshark will start increase your loan by 5 chessbucks daily, therefore your net worth will start to decay.We don't care if you pay back the loanshark before the leg ends or not, but please understand that running up a debt won't improve your standings. Debts are not carried over to the next leg, nor are winnings.
> >
About when the Spring Leg will end--tentatively we are planning on ending the Spring Leg, appropriately enough, in Las Vegas on June 18th with the US National Open. Upcoming events -- what do you think about this as a gambling proposition? <CHESSBOXING EVENT IN COLOGNE
On the 21 st of April at 9pm the first chessboxing event in Cologne will take place.> http://site.wcbo.org/content/e18/in...
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| Apr-16-06 | | notsodeepthought: <Chessgames Bookie: what do you think about this as a gambling proposition? <CHESSBOXING EVENT IN COLOGNE
On the 21 st of April at 9pm the first chessboxing event in Cologne will take place.>> http://site.wcbo.org/content/e18/in...
Before I commit myself to a bet, I need clarification on one point: after finishing the round of boxing and before starting the chess game, are the competitors allowed to remove their boxing gloves? |
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Apr-17-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: Yes, they change their gear between rounds. From http://site.wcbo.org/content/e14/in... The basic idea in chessboxing is to combine the no.1 thinking sport and the no.1 fighting sport into a hybrid that demands the most of its competitors – both mentally and physically. In a chessboxing fight two opponents play alternating rounds of chess and boxing. The contest starts with a round of chess, followed by a boxing round, followed by another round of chess and so on. In every round of chess the FIDE rules for a ´Blitz game´ apply, in every boxing round the AIBA rules apply with the following extensions and modifications: In a contest there shall be 11 rounds, 6 rounds of chess, 5 rounds of boxing. A round of chess takes 4 minutes. Each competitor has 12 minutes on the chess timer. As soon as the time runs out the game is over. A round of boxing takes 2 minutes. Between rounds there is a 1 minute pause, during which competitors change their gear. The contest is decided by: checkmate (chess round), exceeding the time limit (chess round), retirement of an opponent (chess or boxing round), KO (boxing round), or referee decision (boxing round). If the chess game ends in a stalement, the opponent with the higher score in boxing wins. If there is an equal score, the opponent with the black pieces wins. |
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Apr-17-06
 | | Sneaky: <If the chess game ends in a stalement> Something tells me these people know a lot more about boxing than about chess. |
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Apr-17-06
| | lostemperor: I have a good friend who does chess and now boxing also. In fact he does wrestling and Thai-boxing and started cage-fighting for money! If the prizemoney is right I might ask him to join chessboxing :). Even if he were to lose boxing he would crush those 1500 rated chess-boxing players. He is a 2000 rated player. |
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Apr-17-06
| | lostemperor: <Chessgames Bookie: .. Upcoming events -- what do you think about this as a gambling proposition? CHESSBOXING EVENT IN COLOGNE> How does a training's match between Loek van Wely and Magnus Carlsen this month sounds? (Interested?) |
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| Apr-17-06 | | notsodeepthought: OK, I get the idea. I guess the concept is fine so long as the manager for the losing chessplayer doesn't throw in the towel - that could really mess up the position. |
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Apr-17-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: <How does a training's match between Loek van Wely and Magnus Carlsen this month sounds? (Interested?)> Link please! |
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| Apr-17-06 | | notsodeepthought: <lostemperor> If the boxing event is first, I'll pick van Wely - but not necessarily because he'd crush Magnus. It's just that every punch Magnus throws, even uppercuts, would land way below the belt and get him disqualified. |
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| Apr-18-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <Chessgames Bookie> I have noticed that on the Gausdal Classics: Winner (group A) page you have included the FIDE ratings of the participating players. I think it would be a better idea to deliberately not mention these ratings, because then you reward the "smart" people who bother to look up the ratings themselves and also the background of the players. By mentioning the ratings beforehand, perhaps you are making it a little bit too easy! Just a thought... |
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Apr-18-06
| | lostemperor: Here you go <Chessgames Bookie> a novelty in the international internet scene now on chessgames.com! A serious 4-game match (no boxing) between Loek van Wely and Magnus Carlsen! The link is so fresh that it's only in Dutch http://www.tussendetorens.nl/ (click on DSB Bank tweekamp) I will give a little information in English. The games are going to be played April 28, 29, 30 and May 1. First game start at 3 pm local time (9 am EST). Saturday and Suday (Apr 29 and 30) the games start at 12 (6 am EST) and the last day at 11am (5 EST). In case of a tie, four blitzgame (May 1 at 6 pm) will decide the winner. |
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| Apr-18-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <lostemperor> Excellent link! If you don't mind, I will post it also on the chessgames.com chessforum. |
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Apr-18-06
| | lostemperor: <EmperorAtahualpa> please do so. This is an interesting match at the very least. Carlsen gave up Gausdal Classics, to play this match! |
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Apr-18-06
 | | WannaBe: According to the database, Carlsen & Van Wely have never played each other!! |
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Apr-18-06
| | lostemperor: That's correct, they never have! So much for inside information/ advanced-knowledge ;) |
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