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| May-29-06 | | Milo: Let's say we have the following probabilities on each of four games:
Team A wins 25%
Team B wins 25%
They draw 50%.
Now, the probability of drawing the match is:
(.5)(.5)(.5)(.5)+(12)(.5)(.5)(.25)(.25)+(6)(.25)(.25)(.2-
5)(.25)=35/128 (I hope,) so only around a quarter of the time will two teams draw, even in these very even conditions. I understand that most of us don't routinely do these calculations, but based on intuition alone, it seems like a draw will always be unlikely compared to the other outcomes. The last couple of rounds have been reasonable, but before that, the handicapping tended to favor ties and underdogs a bit more than was probably logical. |
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May-29-06
 | | WannaBe: Staked my whole wad of chess bucks on 37th Chess Olympiad Rd 8: Bulgaria vs India =) |
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| May-29-06 | | Milo: Which side did you bet on? (I have 500 riding on India, but I think Bulgaria is quite under-handicapped, and I should have bet for them instead.) |
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| May-29-06 | | technical draw: <Milo> Interesting math, but all for nothing. Since the "draw" or "tie" bet has nothing to do with drawn games. You can have a drawn match without drawing any games. |
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| May-29-06 | | Milo: There are three possibilities for a draw:
4 wins, with 2 for each side
2 wins, with 1 for each side
4 draws.
I have added all these together in my calculation :) |
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| May-29-06 | | technical draw: <Milo> Yout analysis works only for drawing versus (any side) winning. |
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| May-29-06 | | Milo: <technical draw> Right. So if a tie in my hypothetical scenario paid off better than 93:35, it would be a good bet, and if it paid off worse, it would be a poor bet. |
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| May-29-06 | | technical draw: <Milo> Right. For example in the last round China/Philipines draw closed at 7.5 to 1. This was a good proposition, although it was eventually a losing one. Intuitive betting, more than mathematical precision, is what is needed in this type of gambling situation. |
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May-29-06
| | WannaBe: Oy, vey!! -97 chess bucks... =( |
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May-29-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Betting is open on the 9th round of the Chess Olympiad. Featured matches are: 37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: USA vs Czech Republic
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Ukraine vs Armenia
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Russia vs France
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: India vs Uzbekistan
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Germany vs Cuba
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Georgia vs China
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Italy-A vs Italy-C |
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| May-29-06 | | TIMER: <Wannabe> -97 is not so bad, you can come back from that with a bit of luck. I have had far worse (as low as -3200) and come back to +7200. By the way I have turned it around again (literally, the 1 and the 5; the - and the +) and got back from -1500 to +5100. I was prepared to finally give up, but my longshot came off. |
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| May-29-06 | | technical draw: Is the Chessgames Bookie placing bets, or is he just making money on the Vig.? |
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| May-29-06 | | NakoSonorense: I just lost over 3,000 chessbucks! That's it... it's over! |
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| May-29-06 | | Ezzy: Loads of people would have lost a fortune with Russia only getting a draw! I won 200 on France beating the Netherland's. About time I had a win. :-) |
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| May-30-06 | | MaCa: <<milo>
Let's say we have the following probabilities on each of four games: Team A wins 25%
Team B wins 25%
They draw 50%.>
Interesting, but it's hardly ever that simple. I wouldn't bet that much for the draws here. Of course we might encounter 4 fast draws on the top games later on... Of course I'm not doing too well (barely 400 chessbucks), but I did win with every of 5 tickets on the last round. I quess I'm starting to see in what kind of a form the teams really are. |
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| May-30-06 | | MaCa: Just put 100 on Italy-A agains Italy-C. On my luck, we are going to see 4 fast draws for the first time during this olympiad on this round ;)) |
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| May-30-06 | | percyblakeney: The odds on Russia has sometimes been very low. In the last three Olympiads the gold medalists have won 8-10 of 14 matches, so even the winners can’t be expected to win every match. Russia was 1.04 against quite a strong German team and it was hard to know how Kramnik would play. Russia did win, but with the smallest possible margin, thanks to Kramnik (and Naiditsch). When Russia first played a top team, gold medal candidates Armenia, the odds on Russia was still extremely low (it was higher when they later played the much weaker Belarus). 5 times the money on Armenia or tie was a good odds. |
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May-30-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: <technical draw: Is the Chessgames Bookie placing bets, or is he just making money on the Vig.?> My profits just come from the 10% juice. I've decided to disable it soon, since it may discourage the gamblers. |
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May-30-06
| | Chessgames Bookie: Less than 2 hours left to get your bets in on today's live game. Go here to place your bets »
37th Chess Olympiad Rd 9: Kramnik vs Bacrot
Then go here to watch »
Live Broadcast Page |
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May-30-06
 | | lostemperor: <TIMER> what did you do this time? There were no huge odds like pick three. |
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May-30-06
| | lostemperor: <Chessgames Bookie> some last minute extra juice won't hurt, now does it hehehe. Thanks. We'll do! (and I visited the loanshark just in case)
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| May-30-06 | | TIMER: <lostemperor> The odds against Russia winning were 4.43, I put as much as I could on it. I had earlier borrowed 3000, so that at -1500 I could still put thousands on the bet. I made 6710 gain from -1567! Now I keep losing everything each time I get to the top ten (4500 to -3200, 7200 to -1500) let's stop this yo-yo now and only go up until the finish! |
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May-30-06
| | lostemperor: <TIMER> I got to hand it to you, that's pretty scarry thing, betting against Russia (vs longshot Czech Republic)! And I sure hope you can keep it up:) I found the loanshark a pretty nice guy after all. His boys are not into those thumb breaking things (;. Besides he maybe an essential part of the game epecially when you have to take risks to stay on among the leaders. |
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| May-30-06 | | percyblakeney: Didn't have time to make any bets today, but as the odds turned out I would have chosen a big bet on draw in Kramnik-Bacrot, at least 1000 chessbucks. India-Uzbekistan would be an unexpected tie since Anand isn't playing and the odds is good, 250 chessbucks. In Ukraine-Armenia I'd also choose tie, 250 chessbucks. If someone wins I think it's Ukraine, but the odds was a bit low. But as it is I'm at least not risking any losses today... |
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| May-30-06 | | percyblakeney: Turns out that it would have been much better if I had made those bets after all... |
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