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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-11-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
1. Game Collection: 1975 World Junior chess championship
2. Ongoing edits Vladimir Ostrogsky
3. Bio Adolf Zytogorski
4. Complete the Olympiad
5. Bio Lorenz Maximilian Drabke

7. Baden-Baden (1870)

11. Karl Mayet
12. Smbat Lputian

Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

Pun Index Game Collection: Game of the Day & Puzzle of the Day Collections

>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member
   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 106 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Mar-18-10  kormier: <Moses led the people out of Cham(egypt) and "God i am" made many miracles to protect them>...they even created themself a golden calf but they lived(that generation) 40 years in the desert <before "We are crossing, Jordan river, soldier of the Cross"> and <"Josua fit's the battle of Jerich and the walls came tumbling down">, <appreciate(learn from) and see the creation in the eyes of others> but don't put aside <the greater ever loving All-Mighty, be scientific>(never warior) <to stay into a state of love if you do so>.....tks
Mar-18-10  kormier: <God always is(stay) present, he is The Eternel, he is the greater than time and is not subject nor doe's it make him blink>, like in chess we have material, space and tempis, <time is his, space is his and mater is his, he is the Absolute Good Master> ....he created hell for the fallen archangel and bad spirits but <he is everywhere and even there by his justice, it's called Omnip...some quality of His>.....tks
Mar-18-10  whatthefat: <Re: soft tissue>

In fact, if you read a more recent paper by the same author (which made quite a splash in the media), you'll see that when they analyzed the soft tissue, they found that while some proteins had been preserved, no DNA could be sequenced - it had all degraded, indicative of a very old biological sample. They also provided an explanation for how such substances could be preserved for such a long time.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conte...

<SwitchingQuylthulg: Why is it, then, that reasonably well-preserved mammoths outnumber reasonably well-preserved dinosaurs loads to zero?>

No to mention the fact that they are found in different sedimentary layers. By the way, I thought you were <brankat> for a moment there with that avatar!

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <switching: If dinosaurs really existed only a few thousand years ago, that would make them coeval with mammoths, no? Why is it, then, that reasonably well-preserved mammoths outnumber reasonably well-preserved dinosaurs loads to zero? >

If ________ really existed only a few thousand years ago, that would make them coeval with mammoths, no? Why is it, then, that reasonably well-preserved mammoths outnumber reasonably well-preserved _______ loads to zero?

How many fill in the blanks do you want me to provide?

I had the same reaction as <whatthefat> to your avatar.

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <whatthefat: No to mention the fact that they are found in different sedimentary layers.>

Is there no other plausible reason why a mammoth might generally be found in different sedimentary levels?

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <whatthefat: In fact, if you read a more recent paper by the same author (which made quite a splash in the media), you'll see that when they analyzed the soft tissue, they found that while some proteins had been preserved, no DNA could be sequenced - it had all degraded, indicative of a very old biological sample. >

If blood vessels are present, then Science will invent a new idea on why blood vessels last that long. If blood cells are present, then Science will invent a new idea on why blood cells can last that long. If heme compounds are found, then Science will invent a new idea why heme compounds can last that long. If DNA isn't found, then Science concludes that proves DNA breaks down quicker and the sample must be much older. Such self serving logic isn't real persuasive. FWIW, this paper did cite extracted DNA:

<In 1994, Scott Woodward and his colleagues wrote an article titled: “DNA sequences from Cretaceous Period Bone Fragments” (266:1229-1232). In their report, the authors remarked: “DNA was extracted from 80-million-year-old bone fragments found in strata of the Upper Cretaceous Blackhawk Formation in the roof of an underground coal mine in eastern Utah (p. 1229). >

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: Then they must learn from it and possibly revise some theories. This is what science does. >

I simply don't agree. I think they studiously avoid any suggestion the Creationists are right, and the new and improved ideas will a priori assume they are not right, just like the newly discarded proposals did.

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: <Is there no other plausible reason why a mammoth might generally be found in different sedimentary levels?>

A plausible reason why remains of all species of dinosaur (of very different sizes, body types, habitats, habits, etc.) are always found in relatively deeper rock layers than any mammoths, other than dinosaurs simply predating mammoths? We're agog.

Mar-18-10  whatthefat: <OCF: If blood vessels are present, then Science will invent a new idea on why blood vessels last that long. If blood cells are present, then Science will invent a new idea on why blood cells can last that long. If heme compounds are found, then Science will invent a new idea why heme compounds can last that long. If DNA isn't found, then Science concludes that proves DNA breaks down quicker and the sample must be much older. Such self serving logic isn't real persuasive>

But only because of all the corroborating evidence to confirm the age of the sample. You seem to have a muddle-headed (and to a scientist, pretty insulting) idea of how scientists actually operate. I don't understand how the logic is "self-serving". If the scientific evidence suggested the Earth were 20,000 years old, or 40 trillion years old, it would not matter. It doesn't serve anyone to know that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old, and that figure was only arrived at through incredible scrutiny and debate. The only important thing is to find a consensus between the various pieces of evidence. Literalist creationists on the other hand are starting with an a priori assumption of the Earth's age - an assumption that is not supported by anything outside of the Bible.

<Is there no other plausible reason why a mammoth might generally be found in different sedimentary levels?>

Well, not that I can see. Different layers were laid down in different eras, like the rings of bark on a tree.

<FWIW, this paper did cite extracted DNA:

<In 1994, Scott Woodward and his colleagues wrote an article titled: “DNA sequences from Cretaceous Period Bone Fragments” (266:1229-1232). In their report, the authors remarked: “DNA was extracted from 80-million-year-old bone fragments found in strata of the Upper Cretaceous Blackhawk Formation in the roof of an underground coal mine in eastern Utah (p. 1229). >>

I do believe that finding was discredited in a comment the next year: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conte... It was found to be contamination of the sample with a human Y chromosome.

Mar-18-10  YouRang: <whatthefat>
<You seem to have a muddle-headed (and to a scientist, pretty insulting) idea of how scientists actually operate.>

Exactly. In the main, scientists devote much of their lives to education and hard work just for the love and satisfaction of nudging the human understanding of nature a bit forward. It's a huge leap of faith to suppose that they are so preoccupied with opposing the Bible that they will deliberately distort this understanding of nature just to avoid agreement with the Bible.

In truth, some scientists love the Bible, some hate the Bible, and others (maybe most) hardly ever even think about the Bible.

It is *SO* much more sensible to accept the possibility that the simplistic literal interpretation of Genesis might not be right.

<Literalist creationists on the other hand are starting with an a priori assumption of the Earth's age - an assumption that is not supported by anything outside of the Bible.>

Exactly again. But I am afraid that many Christians don't know the difference between "faith in the Bible" and "faith in literalist creationists". The literalist creationists would have us think that they are practically the same. I'm quite sure that the difference is vast.

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <whatthefat: You seem to have a muddle-headed (and to a scientist, pretty insulting) idea of how scientists actually operate. I don't understand how the logic is "self-serving". >

I guess I don't possess your logic to follow such arguments like "We found this fossil in a 70 million year old rock formation. And we know the rock formation is 70 million years old since it has a 70 million year old fossil in it." I guess I'll have to live with that being an unpersuasive argument, and hope it doesn't insult you too much.

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: Exactly. In the main, scientists devote much of their lives to education and hard work just for the love and satisfaction of nudging the human understanding of nature a bit forward.>

Oh really? <whatthefat> is certainly the most vigorous proponent of the evolutionary viewpoint in this discussion. Less than a week ago, you affirmed how reasonable it was to agree we don't know for sure on many of these questions. But <whatthefat> subsequently claimed that the evolutionary position is as true as the law of gravity. I didn't notice you disagreeing with him. You really can't have it both ways here.

Mar-18-10  whatthefat: I don't see how my feeling that the current scientific evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of the theory of evolution, is in any way contrary to my devotion to <education and hard work just for the love and satisfaction of nudging the human understanding of nature a bit forward>.
Mar-18-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan><Oh really? <whatthefat> is certainly the most vigorous proponent of the evolutionary viewpoint in this discussion. Less than a week ago, you affirmed how reasonable it was to agree we don't know for sure on many of these questions. But <whatthefat> subsequently claimed that the evolutionary position is as true as the law of gravity. I didn't notice you disagreeing with him. You really can't have it both ways here.>

I don't see how I am having something both ways. Let me explain:

My statement earlier about how "scientists don't really know for sure" is a fundamental principle to understanding what a scientific theory is (or what it isn't, for that matter).

A theory is an attempt to explain the observed facts in a manner that is testable, and it has successfully passed all known tests.

*However*, one can never rule out the possibility that a new observation will be discovered that will challenge that theory, and perhaps force that theory to be revised or scrapped.

For example, this interesting discovery of the well-preserved T-Rex might force a revision of some theory -- e.g. the theory concerning fossil preservation.

And as far as I'm concerned, this fundamental principle applies to both the theories of evolution and gravity.

I think <whatthefat> understands evolution better than I do, so I have no basis to dispute his comparison of evolution to gravity. But even if I did, it would not contradict the priciple that I stated above.

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: <OhioChessFan: I guess I don't possess your logic to follow such arguments like "We found this fossil in a 70 million year old rock formation. And we know the rock formation is 70 million years old since it has a 70 million year old fossil in it." I guess I'll have to live with that being an unpersuasive argument, and hope it doesn't insult you too much.>

What about this: We found this fossil in a very old rock formation. We know the rock formation is very old because it is under lots and lots of other rock formations, and older rock formations are practically always at the bottom because usually only the top layer changes significantly, as in, is renewed. While the bottom layers also still undergo some changes, we don't really see how they could switch places with the top layers! We have good reason to think this rock formation is quite a lot older even than the rock formation directly on top of it, partly because the fossils in this rock formation are consistent with each other, quite different from the fossils in the next rock formation and pretty much completely different from the fossils in the one after that. (Very similar things with many of the same fossils occur in many other places, heavily suggesting this is no coincidence.) We also have other reasons to think this rock formation is very old. For instance, radiometric dating tells us this layer is not only extremely old, but also much older than any of the layers on top of it. While such dating methods are not always completely reliable or accurate, they also don't contradict each other or any other evidence, and other datings by other people for similar rock formations are pretty much in line with ours. We therefore don't currently have much reason to suspect our conclusion. Since people will probably be interested, we'll give them the date our measurements indicated, 70.0 1.57 million years ago. We could probably further improve on the accuracy if we wanted to, but for now we're happy with just knowing this rock is very old.

Is that an equally unpersuasive argument? (I guess yes, since you don't like the conclusion, but it shouldn't be.)

Mar-18-10  The Chess Express: I saw an interesting program on the history channel the other day. Apparently an enormous commit struck the Indian ocean about 3,000 B.C. It created waves that were up to 3 miles high and flooded out all the civilizations in that area. It's interesting because it is those same civilizations that give us the story of the great flood that the Bible speaks of. Here is a brief summary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burckl...

Mar-18-10  whatthefat: <TCE>

In fact, there are many events that have been suggested as the possible origin of the mythology. Here's another:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_...

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Switching: What about this: We found this fossil in a very old rock formation. We know the rock formation is very old because it is under lots and lots of other rock formations, and older rock formations are practically always at the bottom because usually only the top layer changes significantly, as in, is renewed. >

The issue in part is the extent of how much older. And the circular reasoning I suggested previously is about the extent of the argument. As for the older formations always being on top, I guess we need to exclude thrust faults and so we have to invent some new explanation for them.

Unless, of course, a flood laid down those strata in which case, you would expect such formations to occasionally occur. But as Theodoric of York would say "Naaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh".

Mar-18-10  YouRang: <The Chess Express: I saw an interesting program on the history channel the other day. Apparently an enormous commit struck the Indian ocean about 3,000 B.C. It created waves that were up to 3 miles high and flooded out all the civilizations in that area. It's interesting because it is those same civilizations that give us the story of the great flood that the Bible speaks of. Here is a brief summary.>

That is interesting, thanks.

I wonder if an event like that might also produce huge amounts of steam to rise into the atmosphere causing a prolonged rainy period (say, 40 days and 40 nights). ;-)

I suppose literalists will object because it didn't flood the *whole* earth.

It would be kinda funny if science were to end up demonstrating that the historical accounts in Genesis are accurate -- providing that they are interpreted correctly -- and standing in the way of this correct interpretation is the creationists! :-)

Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Switching: We have good reason to think this rock formation is quite a lot older even than the rock formation directly on top of it, partly because the fossils in this rock formation are consistent with each other, quite different from the fossils in the next rock formation and pretty much completely different from the fossils in the one after that. >

So that flood hit and the first layer of the fossil record is marine life. And you'd probably find some grouping of marine life per density etc, which would sort of look like they were "consistent" with one another. And the less mobile of the land animals would generally show up in the next layer and I guess that would appear to be a "consistent" grouping of fossils. And then the more mobile of the land animals, who tried to avoid the rising flood waters would be the next layer. And amazingly enough, that too would be a "consistent" grouping of fossils. I guess that's sort of predictable. Of course, there'd be much mixing of fossils and appearances out of order if there was a flood, which create great turmoil for the evolutionists, who have to invent another idea to explain that one away.

But you've never given any thought to this? You've never had this hypothesis presented to you?

Mar-18-10  whatthefat: <OCF: As for the older formations always being on top, I guess we need to exclude thrust faults and so we have to invent some new explanation for them.>

Without being a geologist, I'm pretty sure such formations would be observed from time to time, due to slipping layers or seismic activity, but they should not be the norm. One would need a very good reason to assume that the layer a fossil is found in does not correlate with its age, especially when other dating methods are consistent with this correlation.

Mar-18-10  The Chess Express: <YouRang> That's actually exactly what happened. The commit threw up so much water and heat into the atmosphere that it caused "super cell" hurricanes. Ones that were much stronger than category five. It was quite an interesting program.
Mar-18-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <One would need a very good reason to assume that the layer a fossil is found in does not correlate with its age, especially when other dating methods are consistent with this correlation.>

Yes, the rate of decay is entirely consistent in radiometric dating. All the other processes I have mentioned that suggest a young earth, those aren't consistent. That about cover your position?

Mar-18-10  whatthefat: <OCF>

Which processes are we talking about?

Mar-18-10  kormier: nap's time.....tks guys
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