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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-12-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49346 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-11-25 Morphy vs A Morphy, 1850
 
OhioChessFan: From 7 years ago, I stand corrected. 17...Kb1 18. 0-0 and White is crushing.
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: I promise you that you have nothing better to do for the next five minutes than to listen to this: Liszt-Liebestraum No. 3 in A Flat Performed by Rubinstein https://youtu.be/fwtIAzFMgeY?si=ebV...
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I guess I'm glad the Schumer Shutdown is over. I can't say it had any impact on my life.
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 12 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Sep-18-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <aw1988> e4+ is correct. e3 probably leads to 1...e4+
2. fxe4 fxe4+
3. Ke3 c5
Sep-20-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: **Solution to puzzle of September 13 **

** **

A nice thematic study on the opposition.
1. e4+ fxe4 2.fxe4+ Kc5
3.Kc3 Kb5 4.a4+ Kc5
5.b4+ axb4+ 6.Kb3 Kd4
7.a5 Kc5 8.a6 Kb6
9.Kxb4 Kxa6 10.Kc5 Kb7
11.Kd6 Kb6 12.Kxe5 c5
13.Kd5 Kb5 14.e5 c4
15.e6

Sep-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi <Ohio>
Thanks for volunteering. In the absence of <twinlark> I'll just suggest a few pointers. (Typical - our best organizing brain is half-way round the planet from the majority of us... guess that's why it's WORLD vs Nickel...)

What I did was rewrite my profile and then delete previous posts from my forum. I appreciate this is a bigger sacrifice in your case - I hadn't really been running much of a forum before. But I guess you should delete or copy all the previous posts - the idea is that people can just click 'Ohio' & get an instant summary of Move X. No idea how we'll actually divide up the next one. I'll leave that to Twinlark. I'd originally suggested regular meetings on the main page at move-hour (14.00 Eastern, 19.00 Europe) but this is 4am in Oz. Yet another detail that needs fine-tuning. Thanks again.

Sep-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> That marker post idea is good - maybe we can start each move with a diagram, or something - sorry, there's obviously no need to delete or erase old forum material: we just need to be clear about the location of the relevant stuff...
Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Announcement **

<Rd1>

My forum is now devoted to discussion of the World Vs AN, and a proposed move for White, Rd1. I have both Shredder and Rybka's analysis above, and welcome any other engine analysis someone might wish to post. I likewise encourage all human analysis.

Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: My thoughts on 12. Rd1. There are 7 games in the Chessgames Opening Explorer that have the previous 11 moves played. All 7 of those were followed by either Nc3 or Be3. Rd1 would be a novelty in this database, anyway. There's a strange difference of opinion between Shredder and Rybka in the response to Rd1. Rybka immediately exchanges his Knight for our d3 Bishop. Shredder prefers the slower 0-0 followed by Bd7. Does anyone want to discuss the relative merits of each plan for Black?
Sep-27-06  Thorsson: I'd say that Shredder had it more right, simply because after Rd1 there's no rush to take on d3 - on e5 it helps guard against Bh6.
Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Rookfile's post from TWVAN page: There are a couple of ideas behind 12. Rd1. I'm reminded of: 1. e4 e5 2. f4 exf4 3. Nf3, and now Fischer called 3.... d6 a 'high class waiting move'. A) One of the questions that keeps popping up, over and over again is: if black captures ...Nxd3, should white recapture with the Queen or the c pawn. With Rd1, the answer is: neither - you take with the rook, and rook exerts nice pressure on the d file. B) 12. Bh6 is desirable, but ...Nfg4 practically forces white to play 13. Bg7 Rg8 14. Bxe5 Nxe5 and give up the bishop pair. But: 12. Rd1 0-0 13. Bh6! is a nice finesse: 13...Re8 (now the rook is blocking the e8 square for the queen) 14. Be3! (the same move everbody wants to play now, but we can get an improved variation of it) and now:

A) 14.... Bd7 15. Bb6! (the reply ...Qe8 is not possible as in the Gobulev vs. Epishin game) and black is forced into the less favorable ...Qb8 or ...Qc8, and the a8 rook is hemmed in.

B) 14...d5 15. Nc3 Qc7 16. Bb6 Qb8 is good for white

C) 14...Nxd3 15. Rxd3! Bd7 16. Nc3 Bc6 17. Bb6! Qc8 18. Rad1! and white is boss!

So, these are the basic ideas, but let me go through this exhaustively tonight. I'm excited, because it seems we have a chance for a very surprising novelty!

Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: In response to <Rookfile>'s post above per Rybka's suggested response to 12. Rd1 of ...Nxd3, what would you consider White's best plan? I am surprised Rybka comes back with 13. Qxd3 instead of Rxd3. Anyone have any ideas on this line? Rookfile's line is more in agreement with Shredder's analysis. Which line is better? Which line will AN play?
Sep-27-06  Nightranger: Chessmaster 10 goes for the immediate 12. .. Nxd3. CM also prefers the 13. Qxd3 capture. On either 13. Qxd3 or Rxd3, it favors e5... so far.

Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Another possible response from Black to 12. Rd1 is Qc7 as in this line posted by Rookfile:

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 e6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 a6 5. Bd3 Bc5 6. Nb3 Be7 7. Qg4 g6 8. Qe2 d6 9. 0-0 Nd7 10. a4 Ne5 11. a5 Nf6 12. Rd1! Qc7!? 13. Nc3 Bd7 14. Be3 Rc8 15. Bb6 Qb8 (15...Qc6? 16. Nd4! wins!!) 16. f4! Nxd3 17. Rxd3!! (now a ROOK LIFT is possible!) Bc6 18. Rad1 0-0 (does black have better?) 19. Bd4 Nd7 20. f5 Ne5 21. Rh3! with a strong attack!

Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Ron: I didn't vote for Rd1 but the possibililty is intriguing me and I might switch my vote. Computers might-under estimate dynamic rook moves. For example, take this game Topalov vs Kasimdzhanov, 2005
Fritz favored 20. c4. Instead, Topalov played 20 Rb1. Dynamic rook play.
Sep-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Ron> the most important part of the 12. Rd1 seems to me to be Black's response. Will AN trust Rybka? If so, then we'll see 12....Nxd3. If not, then 0-0 or Qc7 are possible.
Sep-27-06  Nightranger: I believe <Rookfile> posted something for O-O. It was 13. Bh6 Re8, 14. Be3 threatening to go to b6.

I think 12. Rd1 will lead to 12. .. Nxd3 and some further exchanges.

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A few posts from THWVAN page made September 27/28:

<Dionyseus> says:
Analysis by Rybka 2.1o mp 32-bit:
12...0-0 13.Nc3 Bd7 14.Bg5 Re8 15.h3 Rc8 16.f4 Nxd3 17.Qxd3 Bc6 18.Nd4 Qc7 19.Qe3 = (0.13) Depth: 20 00:18:00 205mN

<Rookfile> says:

Ok, I've been looking at this all night, so it's time to summarize my findings, and move on. I'll be travelling the next 4 days, so good luck to the world team on what it decides!

12. Rd1

A) 12.... 0-0 13. Bh6 Re8 14. Be3 (we drove the rook to e8 so that it is not available for the queen) and now:

A1) 14...Rf8? (amusing draw offer) 15. Nc3 and compared to the position after 12....0-0, white got to play 2 moves, Nc3 and Be3 for the price of one) -- clear edge for white

A2) 14...Bd7 15. Bb6 and black is forced into the less desirable ...Qc8 or ...Qb8

A3) 14...d5 15. Nc3 Qc7 16. Bb6 Qb8
is good for white

A4) 14...Nxd3 15. Rxd3! Bd7 16. Nc3 Bc6 17. Bb6! Qc8 18. Rad1! and white is better

B) (delaying castling)
12.... Qc7!? 13. Nc3 Bd7 14. Be3 Rc8 15. Bb6 Qb8 (15...Qc6? 16. Nd4!wins!!) 16. f4! Nxd3 17. Rxd3!! (now a ROOK LIFT is possible!) Bc6 18. Rad1 0-0 (does black have better?) 19. Bd4 Nd7 20. f5 Ne5 21. Rh3! with a strong attack!

C) 12.... Nxd3 13. Rxd3 e5! (Let's transpose this into a Najdorf like setup) 14. Bg5 Be6 15. Na3 Rc8! (ruling out white ideas of Nc5) 16. Rad1 Rc6 17. c4 !? 0-0 18. c5 - a slight advantage for white.

The Najdorf setup appears to be the hardest for white to crack here. Best wishes to the world team, I'll log back on here in 4 days....

<builttospill> says: I feel an Rd1 surge coming on. It is worth a shot. Hard to find anything wrong with it.

<Wassily> says:
I am not so sure about Rd1. Besides possibly being novel, I have not been particularly impressed with the lines so far posted. It is certainly not in line with the general order of development. Let's try to connect those rooks first.

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A few more posts from TWVAN page:

<kwgurge> says:
It would take a lot to convince me that the novelty Rd1 is worth the risk. It's main premise - to capture the N after it takes the d3 B - assumes that black will take the bad B with a good N. I'm not willing to base a move on that assumption at this point.

Rd1 does nothing to exploit the b6 hole we have so laboriously created.

Look at our naked kingside if we remove the R from the file file. It's almost an open invitation to send a sacrificial attack in that direction.

<Rookfile> says:
Ok. This is positively my last entry for the next four days, lol. As you know, I was excited for several hours about 12. Rd1. The reason why I gave up on it was 12... Nxd3 13. Rxd3 e5. and the black bishop hops into e6.

But, if we play 12. Nc3, it's possible that we might get an improved variant of the 12. Rd1 idea. Not by 12. Nc3 0-0, to which we reply 13. Na4 and Nb6 - and are quite happy.

No, suppose black plays the plausible 12. Nc3 Bd7 - to chop off the knight if it goes to a4. Ok - maybe it's here we go 13. Rd1 inviting 0-0 14. Bh6 Re8 15. Be3 with the idea of Bb6 and the black queen can't go to e8.

After 12. Nc3 Bd7 13. Rd1, 13....Nxd3 14. Rxd3 e5 isn't as good for black anymore, because it's taking two moves for the bishop to get to e6, not 1, and meanwhile, white made the productive move Nc3. And 13.....Bc6 gets greeted by 14. Nd4.

So, my vote is for 12. Nc3!

<Nasruddin Hodja> says:

My gut reasons as to why the other moves are inferior...........

12. Rd1. It is the a-rook that belongs on d1, not the f-rook, which should be deployed either on the e- or f- files, depending on where a breakthrough looks more likely.

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I have to get to work. For now, some thoughts about the line: Why does <Dionyseus> Rybka (0-0) have a different line than <RandomVisitor> Rybka (Nxd3)? What would AN play next? Is it a good idea for The World to play an Opening Novelty? What would be the best way to recapture after Nxd3? Is it a good idea to play Rd1 with our Queenside minor pieces undeveloped?
Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: <OhioChessFan> I believe they are using different 'books' for their opening.

During my first Shredder vs. Rybka match, which ended in draws, afterwards for game 2, both <RandomVisitor> and <Dionyseus> switched to a different opening book.

And Shredder lost both games to Rybka.

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Another possibility is the length of time each software was running and the ply-depth they are analyzing.
Sep-28-06  Marvol: If I look at the final position in that Rybka line it is Black's dream position come true: a virtually open position with 2B v 2N.

Black could even drop a pawn and he wouldn't care, his bishops should rule the board. Or can white force off a pair of minors?

Right now, an endgame is the last thing I want after all the effort to get us into a good middlegame position.

Sep-28-06  Marvol: I also think that should we want to attack on the K-side we don't want our rooks to be on a1 and d1.

I imagine (maybe I'm wrong) that we generally want the a1 rook to move to the c-file or d-file and the f1 to stay there or even move up to double and at best move to e1. No?

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Hello everyone. <Rookfile> proposed this line:

<C) 12.... Nxd3 13. Rxd3 e5! (Let's transpose this into a Najdorf like setup) 14. Bg5 Be6 15. Na3 Rc8! (ruling out white ideas of Nc5) 16. Rad1 Rc6 17. c4 !? 0-0 18. c5 - a slight advantage for white.>

And asked for improvements. I have tried 14. Be3 instead, whereupon the same series of moves by Black (Wishful thinking, I know) allows 17. Nc5. That seems to me to be a better position than Rookfile's line. Is there some improvement in play by Black in this proposed line? I am enjoying the learning process, so I have no problems seeing the line proven faulty.

Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A further question. Does 12. Be3 change the value of 13. Rd1 any? I would suppose that if Black immediately plays Bxd3, then Rd1 would be removed from consideration. Are there any other Black moves that would make Rd1 pointless?
Sep-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> I've been having a look at 12.Rd1 - assisted by Fritzy - and in particular the Najdorf-style line suggested by Rookfile. He has a point - it does seem a tough nut to crack. I tried out various moves and lines: typically, Fritz would begin with a very positive evaluation for White (it over-estimates things like the 'weak' pawn at d6 and the 'immobile' bishop at e7) - then, as it looked deeper and I nudged it, the plus numbers would gradually fade away.

Some basic ideas that emerged:
After 12.Rd1 Nxd3 it's possible that 13.Qxd3 is best, despite having the rook there. Fritz gave Rxd3 the tiniest imaginable edge, 0.01 of a pawn, but it also regularly followed up by pulling back with Rd1 after Rxd3. Which seems kinda wasteful.

12.Rd1 Nxd3 13.Rxd3 e5 is interesting. I'd suggest just 14.Nc3 here rather than Bg5. Even after 14.Nc3 Be6 15.Rd1 Rc8 we're OK with 16.Be3.

14.Bg5 Be6 15.N1d2 Rc8 is also possible, but the Bg5 often has to return to e3 anyway. One point after ...e5 is that we don't have to worry about a dragon-style bishop on the long diagonal. And Nc3 hits a lot of key squares, like b5, d5, and e4.

It's tough to actually crack, but white seems to maintain a slight edge. Black doesn't get major c-file counterplay, and the ...d5 break is unthinkable. So we just position our forces as best we can, and maneuver to improve them.

Hope this helps a little. I know you've gone over some of the same ground, but a 2nd opinion can't do much harm...

Sep-29-06  twinlark: Great summary on the main page, <OhioChessGames>!
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