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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-12-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49346 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-11-25 Morphy vs A Morphy, 1850
 
OhioChessFan: From 7 years ago, I stand corrected. 17...Kb1 18. 0-0 and White is crushing.
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: I promise you that you have nothing better to do for the next five minutes than to listen to this: Liszt-Liebestraum No. 3 in A Flat Performed by Rubinstein https://youtu.be/fwtIAzFMgeY?si=ebV...
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I guess I'm glad the Schumer Shutdown is over. I can't say it had any impact on my life.
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 13 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <OhioChessGames> is my younger brother. ;)
Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Notice **

** **

The World has played 12. Be3.
This page is now for the discussion of Black's proposed move 12...Nxd3

Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I will toss out a few questions to initiate discussion.

1. Why don't the computers agree about the proper recapture for White?

2. Will AN want to capture a piece that has moved 1 time with a piece that's moved 3 times?

3. If AN does not play Bxd3 this move, should we consider 13. Rd1?

4. Do we want to open our c file with a pawn recapture?

Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi <Ohio>
Why don't computers agree? - is an interesting question, and one where I suspect the 'obvious' answer might be wrong. Or at best half-right.

The obvious answer in most cases of engine divergence would say it's because there's not much difference anyway. They calculate as deep as they can, the resulting positions have much the same evaluation, so choice comes down to tiny differences in their selection algorithms.

But those tiny differences may be the more important answer. I'm no computer expert, but I know that the raw brute-force calculate-everything routine has been superseded in the new generation of software. Now they have more efficient pruning devices and ways of focussing on key lines - the artificial intelligence version of positional understanding.

But it's still not 'real' positional understanding, is it? (Whatever that is.) They don't and can't think the way we do. Human brains might be dodgy rapid calculators, but they're great at spotting patterns, analogies, links, connections...

So my answer is this. Computers differ because their programmers have given them different ways of mimicking human thought. They're still great at doing tactics, but a fine choice like this is about more than tactics.

There could be a real difference between the various recaptures, but a difference that engines don't see. An analogy just occurred to me, but I'll put it in another post...

Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Here's the analogy. A famous game with a famous move: Botvinnik vs Euwe, 1948 Botvinnik, as White, played 12.Rae1! to reach this position:


click for larger view

Very different from our situation, true. But the point is that Botvinnik 'saw' where the rooks would be needed long-term. Most players, even GMs, would think in terms of playing the Ra1 to c1 or d1, and the Rf1 to e1. Standard centralizing play. Botvinnik saw further. He understood that however the central tension gets resolved, the rooks need to be on the e- and f-files, whether to support a pawn push, simply protect squares, or threaten tactics against the enemy queen.

I won't go into it, but it's a textbook example of world-level intuition. I don't think a computer would play this move - if I'm wrong and somebody's engine does play it, it's probably doing so by accident. ;)

Relevance to World vs GMAN? Slight. But I'm trusting computers less and less since this game began (while continuing to use them, play them, analyse with them, make a living by hitting their keyboards, etc etc).

Call me conflicted.

Sep-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Here's a link to an article by Steve Lopez which I found really interesting. It's actually about whether computers can make 'intelligent mistakes' but it's still pretty relevant. http://www.chessbase.com/workshop2....
Sep-30-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** 12...0-0 played **

** **

Sep-30-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** This forum is for discussion of 13. Rd1 **

** **

Oct-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Repost of analysis 12. Rd1 **

I think most the ideas are still in place, so I will offer this for consideration:

** <Rd1> Analysis ** I will try to summarize the points being made on my forum.

Points in favor:

1. Rd1 would be a novelty, or semi-novelty, so the World may be able to pool our resources and out work AN. And such a move might be a lot of fun.

2. Rd1 allows the World to temporize the Queen side minor pieces and wait one more move to decide where we might want them.

3. Rd1 offers us the chance to recapture on d3 with the Rook, and leave the c file closed, and the Queen where she stands.

Points against:
1. Black's response is unknowable. Different versions of Rybka don't even agree on Black's response. 0-0 and Nxd3 are both possible. It would be very hard to work on lines until Black's move is played. <Rookfile> has also suggested Black might play the novelty 12. Rd1 Qc7.

2. There is some general sense that the World must generate development quickly, and a Rook move now might be too slow, as our Queen side minor pieces are still at home.

3. There are generally good reasons why certain moves aren't played, so we may be taking on too much to try something the best GM's haven't played.

Some other thoughts that don't seem either positive/negative.

1. If Black plays 12...Nxd3, the computers want 13. Qxd3. I think that is simply wrong. That might be one area we may improve upon computer analysis. But it's just an unknown, since Black can have a good game without Nxd3.

2. Rd1 is a move that really puts the question to AN. His response has important repercussions for his position. Whether we want that is a point I'm not clear on.

Oct-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Repost of a proposed line discussed before White's 12th move ** Again, I think most the ideas are still in place, so will share it for consideration:

I have a question about a proposed line suggested by <Rookfile> I am not a strong player, and have no engines for analysis. I would request someone respond on my forum (click on Elvis) to this post. I realize that the proposed move 12. Rd1 has little chance of being voted in, but that is of no concern to me. So here goes:

<Rookfile> proposed this line: <C) 12.... Nxd3 13. Rxd3 e5! (Let's transpose this into a Najdorf like setup) 14. Bg5 Be6 15. Na3 Rc8! (ruling out white ideas of Nc5) 16. Rad1 Rc6 17. c4 !? 0-0 18. c5 - a slight advantage for white.>

And asked for improvements. I have tried 14. Be3 instead, whereupon the same series of moves by Black (Wishful thinking, I know) allows 17. Nc5. That seems to me to be a better position than Rookfile's line. Is there some improvement in play by Black in this proposed line? Is the position my line reaches better than the position Rookfile reaches? I am enjoying the learning process, so I have no problems seeing the line proven faulty.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <hitman84> writes:
I have this idea of developing the to a3 and then maybe Nc4. my move is Rd1,
reasons..

1.Non-commital or not revealing the idea as to where our is going.

2.If black plays Nd3 then Rd3. on d3 has multiple ideas. We can double or triple on the d-file. We can also use it for attack if the need arises by playing Rh3.

3.After Rd3,Na3 frees the other , now we have the choice of either doubling on the d-file or operate on the f-file by playing Rf1.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Rookfile> writes:

I was excited about ...Rd1 and the idea of taking with the rook a week ago. A lot of lines looked very good for white. But the one line that white can't seem to crack is ...Nxd3, ...e5, and ....Be6 for black.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Thorsson> writes:

That line was to show that Nc3 was necessary, therefore there's no gain in an immediate Rd1. But the real point is that as you have to play f4, the KR should stay on the f-file. That's why no GM has played Rd1, despite the engines thinking it is OK. Well also the fact that cxd3 is a good move in many positions.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Thorsson> writes:

The Rd1 xd3 idea has a problem. To get Nxd3 you are going to have to play f4 (GMAN is not going to be so daft as to play it until he needs to). Now your pawn on f4 is weak because the Rook has moved. Moreover you have no threat of f5 in this line. Worse if you don't play Nc3 then Black plays Bd7 -b5 pinning the Rook against Q, e.g. 13.Rd1 Bd7 14.f4 Nxd3 15.Rxd3? Bb5 It's no use just thinking up a line and posting it. Critique it. Work out the moves you don't want to face and find an answer to them.

Oct-02-06  hitman84: <OhioChessFan>
Oh sorry I should have posted it here..

13.Rd1 Bd7 14.Na3 Nd3 15.Rd3 Rc8 16.Rad1

and black has some serious problems..

Oct-02-06  azaris: <13.Rd1 Bd7 14.Na3 Nd3 15.Rd3> 15...d5
Oct-02-06  hitman84: <azaris>16.e5 Nh5 17.c4! the idea of Na3 has worked and now is heading to d6 outpost. if black does'nt play dc4 then we have huge space and the liquid center is also good for white.
Oct-02-06  azaris: 17...Bxa3! 18.Rxa3 dxc4 19.Rd6 cxb3 20.Qd2 Bc6 21.Rxd8 Rfxd8 22.Qe2 at least muddies the waters completely. Who knows, maybe White is winning here.


click for larger view

Oct-02-06  hitman84: yes after Bd5 white has to choose the best plan to win. I have this idea..

Ra4->h4->g4..

I'll analyse the position and post the line.

Oct-02-06  hitman84: that idea does'nt work in the view of Rc8->c2. I'll dig into this..
Oct-02-06  hitman84: 22.Qe1! Bd5 23.Ra1 Rac8 24.Rc1
White has to toil hard but its surely a win.
Oct-02-06  Angus Canuck: <OhioChessFan: <Angus Canuck> and <isemeria> thank you for your analyses. If you headed over to my forum to discuss Rd1, I'd be grateful.>

Sorry I wasn't able to contribute here. Just too busy.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: *** Announcement of move played ***

*** ***

13. Nc3 played

Oct-02-06  hitman84: LOL! why do you always get weird moves :)
Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I don't mind hosting moves with no chance of winning, since I am enjoying the educational experience. For what it's worth, I think Rd1 was the best move last move and if Black doesn't play Nxd3, I would vote for it again. I also think f3 has been a good option for a long time now, and remains so.
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