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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-12-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49346 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-11-25 Morphy vs A Morphy, 1850
 
OhioChessFan: From 7 years ago, I stand corrected. 17...Kb1 18. 0-0 and White is crushing.
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: I promise you that you have nothing better to do for the next five minutes than to listen to this: Liszt-Liebestraum No. 3 in A Flat Performed by Rubinstein https://youtu.be/fwtIAzFMgeY?si=ebV...
 
   Nov-11-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I guess I'm glad the Schumer Shutdown is over. I can't say it had any impact on my life.
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 14 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Oct-02-06  twinlark: <Ohio>

13...Qc7 not Qd7.

Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: LOL
Having a bad day.
Oct-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Proposed move 13.....Qc7 **

This forum is now available for discussion of options for the World if GMAN plays 13.....Qc7.

Oct-02-06  RookFile: Ohio: in that 12. Rd1 Nxd3 13. Rxd3 e5 line, there is nothing wrong with your 14. Be3. If we project 14....Be6 15. Na3, I think black will continue 15....Qc7. At some point white will need to actually spend a move and defend e4. It's a game.
Oct-03-06  twinlark: <Ohio>

I'll run Shredder for a few hours and post its conclusions about 13...Qc7 here a bit later. It doesn't seem like there's much discussion going on at all about any of Black's variations right now, but what little there is, is dominated by 13...Nxd3 and 13...Bd7. maybe it's to do with Elista.

Hope to catch up with you on my forum at 1400EDT if you can make it.

Oct-03-06  twinlark: <Ohio> Here's the Shredder analysis I mentioned a few hours ago for 13...Qc7. Shredder thinks this move stinks.


click for larger view

Analysis by Shredder 10 (20 ply complete):

1. ±(1.05): 14.f4 Nxd3 15.cxd3 Bd7 16.Bb6 Qb8 17.e5 Nh5 18.Rac1 Bc6 19.Nd4 Bd7 20.Qe3

2. ±(1.05): 14.Bb6 Qb8 15.f4 Nxd3 16.cxd3 Bd7 17.e5 Nh5 18.Rac1 Bc6 19.Nd4 Bd7 20.Qe3

3. ±(0.89): 14.Rac1 Bd7 15.f4 Nxd3 16.cxd3 Qb8 17.Bb6 Bc6 18.f5

I won't post the variations.

User: RandomVisitor 's Rybka agrees f4 is the strongest lines, having spaketh thus:

(0.27): 13...Qc7 14.f4 Nxd3 15.cxd3 Bd7 16.Bb6 Qb8 17.e5 Nh5 18.g4 Ng7 19.Ne4 Ne8 20.Rac1

Hope to see you at 1400 EDT on my forum if Black makes his 13th move then.

Oct-03-06  twinlark: Not 20 ply complete, rather: depth 20/20.
Oct-03-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Twinlark> I noticed on our last move, 90% of the discussion came in the last 4 hours. Not sure why. I think the front runner effect is having a negative impact on our discussions. I still like Rd1 (if Black doesn't play Nxd3 of course) but since it hasn't yet been a front runner, it's not getting discussed. But the idea is still on the table. Likewise other moves we've passed on before. I'd love to have some analysis ready for future reference if the moves are still viable. GMAN's play is not putting many important choices to us, so that we still have a lot of moves available that we were discussing 4 moves ago.
Oct-03-06  dalbertz: Thought I'd copy over some Rad1 analysis from the main forum and add a bit of update...

<OhioChessFan: <Interestingm wrt OhioChessFan's comment. After 17 minutes and 15-ply, Fritz9 also prefers Rxd3 in the line with Rd1, to which it gives the top spot at +1.06: 14. Rad1 Nxc3 15. Rxc3 Bc6 16. Bd4 Rc8 17. Qe3 Qe8 ... >

Ok <dalbertz> that is the first computer line that I've seen choose Rxd3. The problem with Rf-d1 is that GMAN isn't obliged to play Nxd3. I think he will. I don't think enough people are persuaded of that to make Rd1 a viable voting option though.

<Roofile> I have played around with that line myself. It's a decent option. But it's still predicated on Nxd3. I would not be willing to play f4 to force that, if that gives you any idea of what I think of f4.>

<azaris: <14. Rad1 Nxc3 15. Rxc3 Bc6 16. Bd4 Rc8 17. Qe3 Qe8??> Or you could just not gambit a pawn with 17...e5 or 17...Nd7.>

I put azaris' improvement (e5) into Fritz9, let it crank for a while and then backtracked to the current position to see how it re-evaluated things. After 15 minutes and 16-ply it now gives the nod to f4, but Rad1 is a close second still with recapture by the rook:

Analysis by Fritz 9:

1. ± (1.02): 14.f4 Nxd3 15.Qxd3 Bc6 16.f5 Rc8 17.Bh6 Re8 18.fxg6 fxg6 19.Rad1 Qd7 20.Qd4

2. ± (0.96): 14.Rad1 Bc6 15.Bd4 Nxd3 16.Rxd3 Rc8 17.f4 Nd7 18.f5 Bg5 19.Qg4 e5 20.Be3

3. ± (0.93): 14.Rac1 Bc6 15.Bb6 Qe8 16.Bd4 Nxd3 17.cxd3 Nd7

4. ± (0.93): 14.Bb6 Qe8 15.Rac1 Bc6 16.Bd4 Nxd3 17.cxd3 Nd7

Oct-03-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Now discussing (Which) R-d1 **

Thanks to <dalbertz> for the analysis above. I was a little slow getting the announcement in.

Oct-03-06  isemeria: The rooks are needed on a-, c-, d-, f- and perhaps e-files. Since we only have 2 rooks this is a bit of a problem ;-). Of these alternatives, the c- and d-files are recognised as the most important, and they have they own workgroups now.

IMO, the correct combination of rook moves is Rac1 and Rfd1. And playing Rac1 before Rfd1 is more flexible, because the rook on f1 might already be on the right place.

But this does not mean that we should play Rac1 immediately. I think that White can start action with 14. f4 without further preparation. And then some moves later it might be a lot easier to see where to put the rooks. Also there is a question of the support for the a-pawn.

I have posted this to both stevens' and OhioChessFan's forums. Signing out for today, it's way past bedtime here....

Oct-04-06  ajile: I like Rfd1 since we can follow up with the forcing move Na4. The 2 rooks are placed to double quickly on the d file after Bd7 x Na4 and Ra1 X B. The Knight on e5 can be forced back at our leisure with f4 possibly preceeded by h3. Moving a rook now to d1 makes NxB look not so great for Black since he would be helping us develop or rooks on the d file with pressure on d6 and d5. The 2 key squares in the game are d6 and d5. If Black succeeds in pushing d5 his bishop pair could give him a nice advantage in the middlegame.
Oct-04-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Analysis from the TWVAN page regarding (either) Rd1 **

<ajile> says: I also think we need to get a rook to d1 now since f4 now and the Knight x Bishop then QxN. But if we have a rook on d1 we can recapture with the rook which is much better for putting pressure down the d file. The logical choice is Rf1 to Rd1 and here's why: We have the forcing move Na4 which practically forces Black to exchange BxN. The after RxB the a file rook is perfectly placed to go to d4 from a4 and combine with the Rd1 to put pressure down the d file. We can't lose sight of the real theme here. The positional advantage is our half open d file and Black's potentially weak d pawn. Moves such as f4 NxB, cd take awy our advantage IMO. With Rfd1 we follow a logical plan to build pressure on Black's position and also prevent Black's main freeing move d5. After Rfd1 we can still play f4 and hope he exchanges his only developed piece for our white squared bishop which is really just acting like a pawn now. We also retain the otion of tripling up on the d file with Qd2 at some point. So the plan is: RfD1 to setup the recapture on d3 with a rook. Nc3-a4 forcing the exchange Bd7xNa4 and RaxB. And f4 at some point to dislodge the Ne5. Black's position is solid but cramped. Let's keep it that way and play for our natural advantage on the d file and Q-side.

<Azaris> says:
I like the bishop where it's flexible, on e3 or maybe d4 or even g5 or h6 at some point. If 14.f4 is too committal, then we should go for 14.f3 or 14.Rfd1. These pose little problems for Black but so does everything else we've come up so far.

<ajile> says: Here are some other interesting points. After Rfd1 we can play f4 putting the question to the Knight. If he declines NxB and plays Nc6 then we can play Na4 with the threat of Nb6. If he does play NxB then we have RxN and the nice position I mentioned earlier. In this line we can now play the rook lift to a4 and then Rd4 since there is no Black Knight attacking the square d4.

<RookFile> says in response to the above post: I considered this idea. Let's say you play 14. Rfd1, and black plays the straightforward ...Nxd3 anyway, and you reply 15. Rxd3, and black goes 15....Bc6

The first point is: 16. Na4 doesn't work, black has 16.....Bb5.

Second: If you go 16. Rad1, black equalizes on the spot with 16.... Nxe4!

Third: Let's say you throw 16. Bb6 Qe8 17. Rad1 in here. Now.... 17...Bb5 18. Nxb5 Qxb5 looks fine for black.

So, I myself was excited about Rd1 a couple of moves ago, but black seems to have a rock solid defense against this.

Oct-04-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Analysis from TWVAN page regarding (either) Rd1 **

<islero> says: Not that I have spent a great deal of time here but I like the quiet <14.Rad1> with the "wait-and-see" approach. What is black going to do here?

<kinghunt72> says: This is what i see: 14. Rad1 Rc8 15. f4 Nxd3 16. Rxd3 e5 17. fxe5 dxe5 18. Qd2 Bb4 19. Bb6 Qe7 20. Rxf6 Qxf6 21. Rxd7 Qc6 22. Nd5 This gives us a huge advatge: we now have two minor pieces for just a rook, a big space advantage, and we leave an awkward position for Black. Better yet, black can't play 22... Qxd7 because we can win the queen with 23. Nf6+.

<phi> says: me too, and that's why I voted for Rad1. Black has problems anyway and Rad1 gives the possibility to capture with the rook on d3, which could be better than cxd3 or Qxd3 in some variations. IMO we shouldn't play Bb6 and/or f4 before we can see something concrete.

<thorsson> says in response to the above post: I haven't seen any Rad1 voter explain what they want to play after 14...Bc6.

<phi> says in response to the above post: Actually, I don't see a problem with 14...Bc6. White could play 15.Bb6 and I don't know what's wrong with 14.Rad1. After 15...Qb8 for example 16.f4 Nxd3 Rxd3, or maybe there are even better moves for white.

<thorsson> says in response to the above post:

Or maybe Black. My notes suggest 15...Qe8 16.f4 Nxd3 17.Rxd3 d5 18.exd5 Bxd5= I can't check at the moment, and I'm off to bed.

Oct-04-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio.
I'm starting to share your gloom. This sense of a silent majority unstoppably going their way is very strong, while we twiddle with forums and RookFile and Thorsson argue on the main page. This time none of the 'lesser' moves got a look-in: just the two big obvious ones. It may not be actually wrong, but it's frustrating.

The 'Thorsson Effect', eh? Abrasive, and then some, but I think he's mellowed slightly. And he does take the time to explain obvious errors to people, albeit dismissively. I know he's caused two regulars - Tomlinsky and Monad - to storm off in annoyance for a while. And he probably inhibits others from saying anything at all.

But he's probably our best player/analyst. Top three, certainly. I know he's better than me.

It's a very Bush situation, in a sense, with us posing as Dubya. A repressive dictator or a friend of democracy? Send in the money men or the hit squads? "He may be a bastard, but he's _our_ bastard."

It's 2am here now, and I've been up since the previous 6am. We're all going a little crazy. Maybe you're right, the game will quickly reduce to a hardcore following who are really interested. 400 - 300 - 200 - 100? We shall see.

Twinlark has some dramatic PR exercise in mind, I think. Just as long as it doesn't involve toilets, I'll back him.

Oct-04-06  twinlark: I want to put a direct message across some time soon that the workshops are there to use but put it in terms that will be noticed. It won't involve toilets.

What's absolute peak hour on the main page anyway?

Oct-04-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Unless you can make the message appear directly on the chessboard/diagram, I'm afraid most people won't see it. I would guess about 1200 EDT.
Oct-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio.
Don't know if you were watching, but there have been some positive developments.

First, my plea to the 'silent majority' produced 6 or 7 good replies; all said they read as much as they could, forums included, before voting.

Second, Thorsson (!!) suggested on the main page that Forums were now really useful, and important for maybe the first time in the game. So I agreed with him, said we'd do our best, and added that - to make the process more democratic - instead of just announcing forums we'd canvass opinions first. And I threw it open...

I haven't talked to twinlark about this, btw - he doesn't seem to be around right now - but it seemed the best thing to do.

Maybe the Forum recovery process starts here... there were always going to be rough patches before we got it up and running.

Oct-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Maybe we should have a series of posters request that people wait to vote. I am still skeptical about the participation, but maybe there are some people who can be persuaded to sit on their voting rights for a day.
Oct-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I don't want to diminish the game, but I think if we had a large group vote for, say, Qh5, immediately after GMAN's move, it might force people to look at the game analysis, if nothing else to figure out what was going on. That is the only way I've thought of that might slow down that pop in and vote crowd. Again, I am absolutely not suggesting this happen, but just expressing my view of how desperate our situation is.
Oct-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Qh5, eh? Maybe that's what the Ke2! gang were up to?

No, I can't see that this would work. I see your aim - it's to infiltrate the ballot itself, rather than just make a splash on the kibitzing - but my guess is that people just wouldn't understand it. They'd think 'more jokers', or whatever...

You know those posts that still come up saying 'are computers allowed?' or 'f4 attacks a piece'. I do my best to be gentle with them - give a straight answer, hope they're latecomers/beginners who will listen and learn. I'd hate to do anything that would alienate folk - I think there's already a (small) subcurrent of resentment over our 'elitist' forums, and I don't want to encourage it. That was one reason I asked for 'democratic' input earlier.

And they're not all as immersed in the thing as we are. I have a feeling that gesture politics would be a turn-off.

Yet I absolutely share your frustration about the way things are going.

Oct-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: In my hypothetical ploy, there would be a bunch of early votes for Qh5. And then a bunch of posts with the heading, "Why Qh5?" Within the posts a plea that people not vote yet. So that the confused voters would try to figure out what was going on and be forced to read the kibitizing and hopefully see the pleas not to vote.
Oct-06-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <You know those posts that still come up saying 'are computers allowed?' or 'f4 attacks a piece'. I do my best to be gentle with them - give a straight answer, hope they're latecomers/beginners who will listen and learn. >

I've been thinking about that. I have a big problem with the "are computers allowed?" crowd. Here we sit, investing hours in the team's efforts, and these clueless dolts can't be bothered to read the instruction page?! Maybe they don't deserve to be treated gently. Those with a lower quality of post re their chess understanding are more deserving of a break than those who just don't care, IMHO.

Oct-07-06  NakoSonorense: Hi, Ohio.

Would you believe me if I told you that I have never heard an Elvis's song in my whole life? Well, I haven't.

Would you please be so kind as to recommend me his 5 most popular songs?

Thanks.

Oct-07-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: <NakoSonorense> I don't believe you, you probably heard them, but don't know it's Elvis.

I'll let Mr. Elvis hisself recommend the top 5. :-)

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