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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-06-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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***Hall of Fame***
chessmoron chessforum

<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
1. Game Collection: 1975 World Junior chess championship
2. Ongoing edits Vladimir Ostrogsky
3. Bio Adolf Zytogorski
4. Complete the Olympiad
5. Bio Lorenz Maximilian Drabke

7. Baden-Baden (1870)

11. Karl Mayet
12. Smbat Lputian

Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

Pun Index Game Collection: Game of the Day & Puzzle of the Day Collections

>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member
   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
[what is this?]

   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49335 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-06-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Yep, there's a sorta kinda perpetual involved.
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <Integ: Brown commie promises brown immigrants <free stuffs> paid for by white people. Got it.> This is so bad that even <HeMateMe!> is worried about government spending for the first time in his life.
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
   Nov-04-25 A J Fink vs Alekhine, 1932 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: All you Block people stick together!
 
   Nov-04-25 R Balinas vs C Blocker, 1979
 
OhioChessFan: I never met him although he is a huge name in Ohio chess. I don't know how long he kept playing the King's Island Open but I might see if a few friends ever played him there.
 
   Nov-03-25 Memorable Quotes chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: From Chessgames - Politics <perfidious wrote: I claim no familiarity with Edward Teller but was amused to read that he blamed Jane Fonda for his 1979 heart attack. > <johnlspouge: I am sure it wasn't your intention, but my imagination took a prurient turn here.>
 
   Nov-03-25 B Jacobsen vs I Hausner, 1969
 
OhioChessFan: "Bo Jac Horseman"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 214 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-17-11  wordfunph: Round 4:

Anand - Hao 1-0 35
Grischuk - Kramnik 1/2 31
Aronian - Nepomniachtchi 1/2 35
Shirov - Vachier-Lagrave 1/2 42
Giri - Nakamura 1/2 52
Ponomariov - Carlsen 1/2 34
l'Ami - Smeets 1/2 32

Jan-17-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Anand - Hao 1-0 40
Grischuk - Kramnik 1/2 35
Aronian - Nepomniachtchi 1-0 37
Shirov - Vachier-Lagrave 1/2 24
Giri - Nakamura 1/2 27
Ponomariov - Carlsen 1/2 33
l'Ami - Smeets 0-1 45
Jan-18-11  chessmoron: Anand - Hao 1-0 36
Grischuk - Kramnik 1/2 32
Aronian - Nepomniachtchi 1/2 42
Shirov - Vachier-Lagrave 1/2 32
Giri - Nakamura 1/2 32
Ponomariov - Carlsen 1/2 41
l'Ami - Smeets 1/2 34
Jan-18-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  jessicafischerqueen: Round 4

Anand - Hao 1-0 32
Grischuk - Kramnik 1/2 26
Aronian - Nepomniachtchi 1/2 43
Shirov - Vachier-Lagrave 1-0 43
Giri - Nakamura 1/2 38
Ponomariov - Carlsen 1/2 34
l'Ami - Smeets 1/2 34

Jan-18-11  chessmoron: ♔ Tata 2011: <Round 4> ♔ Results

<Anand-Hao, 1-0 in 33 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['Ragh', '1-0', '33']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['jessicafischerqueen', '1-0', '32']]

3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Bobwhoosta', '1-0', '35'], ['wordfunph', '1-0', '35']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['chessmoron', '1-0', '36']]

===
<Aronian-Nepomniachtchi, 1-0 in 26 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1-0', '37']]

2nd Over, 2 points: [['Winter', '1-0', '42']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: []
===
<Giri-Nakamura, 1/2-1/2 in 69 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '52']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '40'], ['Bobwhoosta', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['jessicafischerqueen', '1/2-1/2', '38']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []
===

<Grischuk-Kramnik, 1/2-1/2 in 34 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Ragh', '1/2-1/2', '33']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '32']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '31']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Winter', '1/2-1/2', '35'], ['Bobwhoosta', '1/2-1/2', '35'], ['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '37']]

===
<L'Ami-Smeets, 1/2-1/2 in 27 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '27']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Bobwhoosta', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '32']]

===
<Ponomariov-Carlsen, 1/2-1/2 in 34 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '34'], ['jessicafischequeen', '1/2-1/2', '34']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '33'], ['Ragh', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '41']]

===
<Shirov-Vachier.Lagrave, 0-1 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['Ragh', '0-1', '33']]
2nd Over, 2 points: [['lostemperor', '0-1', '51']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: []

Jan-18-11  chessmoron: Moves Ranker - <Round 4>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

27, wordfunph, 1, 2, 1
24, jessicafischerqueen, 0, 2, 1
23, OhioChessFan, 2, 1, 1
23, Ragh, 2, 1, 1
23, SloVice, 3, 2, 0
17, WinKing, 0, 1, 1
14, chessmoron, 0, 2, 0
10, Bobwhoosta, 1, 1, 0
3, lostemperor, 1, 0, 0
0, MrMelad, 0, 0, 0
0, Winter, 0, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 4>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

29, OhioChessFan, 1, 2, 0, 4
28, Ragh, 0, 0, 2, 3
21, lostemperor, 2, 7, 1, 0
18, jessicafischerqueen, 1, 0, 1, 2
17, Winter, 1, 5, 0, 1
13, chessmoron, 2, 0, 1, 1
13, WinKing, 3, 2, 0, 1
12, Bobwhoosta, 0, 3, 0, 1
12, wordfunph, 3, 2, 1, 0
3, SloVice, 1, 1, 0, 0
2, MrMelad, 0, 1, 0, 0

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - <Round 4>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, Over, 3-Under, 2-Under, Under, Exact

52, OhioChessFan
51, Ragh
42, jessicafischerqueen
39, wordfunph
30, WinKing
27, chessmoron
26, SloVice
24, lostemperor
22, Bobwhoosta
17, Winter
2, MrMelad

===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 4>

Score,UserID

5, SloVice
4, OhioChessFan
4, Ragh
4, wordfunph
3, jessicafischerqueen
2, Bobwhoosta
2, chessmoron
2, WinKing
1, lostemperor
0, MrMelad
0, Winter

Jan-18-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I am setting a record for missing an exact by one move.
Jan-18-11  Winter: Round 5:

Smeets - Anand 0-1 42
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 38
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 45
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 41
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 46
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 34
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 43

Jan-18-11  WinKing: Round 5

Smeets - Anand 1/2 45
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 37
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1-0 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 56
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 65
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 35
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 48

Jan-18-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Reposting for Ragh Round 5 **

Ragh's picks for round 5

Smeets - Anand 0-1 32
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 33
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1-0 32
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 32
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 32
Kramnik - Aronian 1-0 32
Hao - Grischuk 0-1 32

Jan-18-11  wordfunph: Round 5

Smeets - Anand 1/2 45
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 36
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 44
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 52
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 36
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 29
Wang Hao - Grischuk 1/2 44

Jan-19-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  jessicafischerqueen: Round 5

Smeets - Anand 0-1 33
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 34
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 33
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 35
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 33
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 33
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 33

Jan-19-11  morfishine: Thanks again, that was a great story
Jan-19-11  hms123: <OCF>

I would really like to include you and your song parodies in the Chess Life article I talked about on the main game page. Obviously, any other comments and suggestions about any aspect of the Team wold be helpful. Please let me know at my forum if you are interested--thanks--hms

Jan-19-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Smeets - Anand 1/2 38
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 41
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 43
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 42
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 40
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 37
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 38
Jan-19-11  chessmoron: Smeets - Anand 0-1 35
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 43
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 47
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 37
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 32
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 41
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 29
Jan-19-11  SloVice: Round 5:

Smeets - Anand 1/2 31
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 42
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1/2 33
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 38
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 37
Kramnik - Aronian 1-0 31
Hao - Grischuk 0-1 42

Jan-19-11  hms123: <OCF> Thanks. I already have a long email from <twinlark>. I will put <rookfile> on my to do list.
Jan-19-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Smeets - Anand 1/2 27
Carlsen - l'Ami 1-0 31
Nakamura - Ponomariov 1-0 40
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri 1/2 35
Nepomniachtchi - Shirov 1/2 44
Kramnik - Aronian 1/2 27
Hao - Grischuk 1/2 22
Jan-20-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Round 5 has started
Jan-20-11  Bobwhoosta: == Round6 ==

Anand - Grischuk 1/2-1/2 30
Aronian - Hao 1-0 35
Shirov - Kramnik 1-0 45
Giri - Nepomniachtchi 1/2-1/2 40
Ponomariov - Vachier-Lagrave 1-0 35
l'Ami - Nakamura 0-1 30
Smeets - Carlsen 0-1 45

Jan-20-11  Bobwhoosta: It's interesting thinking through the general ideas of the game theory of moves predictions based on the point system.

It is favorable to have a lower score, so that means you need to weight your game a little lower than you would expect the game to be. An exact is definitely great, but considering the chances it's better to predict a little under where you would expect it to go.

Of course, all of this fails if you don't hit the game prediction, which is by far the most important factor in this contest. And I didn't put in my (5 winning!!) predictions from You Rang's forum yesterday!!!

Oh well, I'll make it up with perfect scores from now on...

Jan-20-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <It's interesting thinking through the general ideas of the game theory of moves predictions based on the point system. >

There's some subtleties involved. For example, if you had correctly picked Carlsen to lose with White, you ought to do with a very low number of moves, for you'll assuredly be the only person to do so. I did something similar a few contests back which shocked some kibitzers. This time around, Carlsen in fact lost his game in the low 20's so that theory of mine would have paid off. Alas, there's also much luck involved. There's been some games that had a lot of life left in them drawn prematurely and a few dead drawn games that went on a lot longer than they should have, as I was rooting for them to hurry up and shake hands. The combination of difficult game theory issues and maddening luck is what makes it harder than only picking the results. I think that's why most people find that contest more fun and it does get more entries.

<It is favorable to have a lower score, so that means you need to weight your game a little lower than you would expect the game to be. An exact is definitely great, but considering the chances it's better to predict a little under where you would expect it to go.>

I have a boatload of missed by one this time around. I will admit I don't pay enough attention to trying to stay under and generally try to pick right on the button.

Jan-20-11  chessmoron: ♔ Tata 2011: <Round 5> ♔ Results

<Carlsen-L'Ami, 1-0 in 94 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['chessmoron', '1-0', '43']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['SloVice', '1-0', '42']]
3rd Under, 5 points: [['lostemperor', '1-0', '41']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []
===
<Hao-Grischuk, 1-0 in 36 moves.>--No one got it!

===

<Kramnik-Aronian, 1/2-1/2 in 26 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '27']]

2nd Over, 2 points: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '29']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['jessicafischerqueen', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

===

<Nakamura-Ponomariov, 1/2-1/2 in 43 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '43']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['SloVice', '1/2-1/2', '33'], ['jessicafischerqueen', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Winter', '1/2-1/2', '45']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '47']]

===

<Nepomniachtchi-Shirov, 1/2-1/2 in 79 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '65']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['Winter', '1/2-1/2', '46']]
3rd Under, 5 points: [['OhioChessFan', '1/2-1/2', '44']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Smeets-Anand, 0-1 in 65 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Winter', '0-1', '42']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['chessmoron', '0-1', '35']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['jessicafischerqueen', '0-1', '33']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Vachier.Lagrave-Giri, 1/2-1/2 in 39 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['SloVice', '1/2-1/2', '38']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['chessmoron', '1/2-1/2', '37']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['jessicafischerqueen', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Winter', '1/2-1/2', '41']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '42']]

Jan-20-11  chessmoron: Moves Ranker - <Round 5>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

30, SloVice, 3, 3, 0
27, wordfunph, 1, 2, 1
26, OhioChessFan, 3, 1, 1
24, jessicafischerqueen, 0, 2, 1
24, WinKing, 0, 2, 1
23, Ragh, 2, 1, 1
21, chessmoron, 0, 3, 0
13, lostemperor, 1, 0,
10, Bobwhoosta, 1, 1, 0
7, Winter, 0, 1, 0
0, MrMelad, 0, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 5>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

35, jessicafischerqueen, 2, 0, 3, 3
34, OhioChessFan, 1, 2, 1, 4
28, Ragh, 0, 0, 2, 3
27, lostemperor, 3, 7, 2, 0
27, Winter, 1, 7, 0, 2
26, chessmoron, 3, 0, 1, 3
15, SloVice, 1, 1, 0, 2
14, wordfunph, 3, 3, 1, 0
13, WinKing, 3, 2, 0, 1
12, Bobwhoosta, 0, 3, 0, 1
2, MrMelad, 0, 1, 0, 0

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - <Round 5>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, Over, 3-Under, 2-Under, Under, Exact

60, OhioChessFan
59, jessicafischerqueen
51, Ragh
47, chessmoron
45, SloVice
41, wordfunph
40, lostemperor
37, WinKing
34, Winter
22, Bobwhoosta
2, MrMelad

===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 5>

Score,UserID

6, SloVice
5, OhioChessFan
4, Ragh
4, wordfunph
3, chessmoron
3, jessicafischerqueen
3, WinKing
2, Bobwhoosta
2, lostemperor
1, Winter
0, MrMelad

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