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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-11-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 22 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I meant to suggest Rad1 to weisyschwarz in the above post as the only possible Rook move. I'll stick with it and collect whatever lines we find.
Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** 20....Ne5 played **

Current position:

** Current position. White to move. **


click for larger view

Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I invite discussion of White's 22nd move other than:

Nxc6
Rg3
Ne4

This includes Rad1 and fxg5, and anything else that someone might suggest.

Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A question about 22. fxg5.
Is it worth giving up the f pawn to create a half open file with the Queen/Rook battery on it? Is there a followup with the g and h pawns?
Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Questions about 22. Rad1.
Can we take the time to defend the d pawn like this? Does that give GMAN time to consolidate his defense? Will there be a better time to develop the a Rook? Is Rad1, Qg3 and Rf4 a viable plan? Do we want to give up the option of an eventual Ra4?
Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Rybka analysis **

Thanks to <RandomVisitor>

(0.13/19-ply): 22.Rad1 d5 23.Qg3 Rac8

(0.03/19-ply): 22.Rfd1 d5 23.Rd2 Rac8

Oct-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: The strongest Nxc6 and Qg3 lines are scoring about 0.18 - 0.22 for comparison sake.
Oct-31-06  weisyschwarz: <OCF> I am not crazy about dissipating our forces, though. Nor do I find delight in having the Q guard the isolated pawn. Of the two evils I prefer the latter. To exchange here will increase the chances of a draw. How do we keep the screws tight?
Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: <Ohio> it seems Rad1 might transpose into the Qg3 line but leaving us a tempo down... the play seems to be on the e and f files... and later even possibly the g file so Rad1 or Rfd1 might not actually be anything more than a waiting move.. interestingly from the engine analysis it seems Black has no real forcing moves against either of these so it might indicate that he can't really improve his position all that much RIGHT NOW...
Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: izimbra says: <I'm currently in favor of Rad1. Here are my reasons:

1) The a1 rook is doing the least useful work for white at the moment, and this move allows it to protect the d3 pawn.

2) As mentioned in the pro-Qg3 arguments, there are positional factors that argue against Nxc6, and the d4 N is doing some useful work where it is.

3) though black has few options, one of them is to try to push the d pawn and then either move the bishop to d6 to harass the queen on g3 or else the queen to d6 to try and and trade queens. So delaying the repositioning of the white queen to and away from g3 potentially saves a tempo.

4) The most promising approaches for white progress combines the pseduo-zugswang idea (strive for situation where black has no moves which improve his position and many moves that make it worse) with an attack on the g or h file. Compared to a1, the d1 position for the rook represents some tiny progress towards that and also leaves the queen free from defensive duty. Compared to Nxc6, the knight on d4 also does duty defendin the f5 pawn.>

Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Robin01: <22.Rad1 is a good move. It keeps our queen on the c1-h6 diagonal, which is good, and there is no immediate need to exchange off our well placed knight on d4. I vote for 22.Rad1.>

RookFile responds to the previous post: <well, you seem to be choosing Rad1 for similar reasons to me choosing Qg3, although a little different, of course. Suppose the game continued 22. Rad1, and black played 22.... Bg7. How does white continue from there?>

Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Rookfile responds to Robin01: <I have not analyzed anything yet, but how about 22.Rad1? We might need the queen on c1-h6 diagonal. Also, I see no need to exchange off our well placed knight on d4.>

A perfectly reasonable question. I'll have to look at Rad1.

Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Tomlinsky: At the moment I'd rather play Rad1 and get our pieces adjusted more to the position. I'm not having anything to do with these d4 lines as they stand. Qg3 if need be.
Nov-01-06  izimbra: FWIW, I later changed my vote to Nxc6. I'm not convinced that anybody has analyzed the best lines for Rad1, so my reason for changing was really an improved understanding of Nxc6. There is a dynamic element to Nxc6 that depends for success on black's inability to find a good resting place or exchange for his knight. This is fundamentally a different idea than the zugswang idea. The latter may still be good, but finding it depends on a longer search horizon.
Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <domdaniel> says: If we literally do nothing, then AN is not short of moves - he can improve his rook position, for starters. 22.Rad1 commits our rook to a passive post on the d-file - where it may be temporarily out of play, or have to move again if we want to double rooks on the f-file. In which case we've simply lost a move: and it isn't the kind of position where that's a good idea, because some of our advantage lies in the slight initiative we still have.
Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <jepflast> says: Rad1 and Qg3 fail because (if I had to use words instead of lines) Black is allowed to keep his knight in the center and exert more control over the e-file and the kingside. Plus, our queen's rook is really headed for f1.

Nov-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Thorsson> says: There's nothing wrong with Rad1, but there's nothing right either. What does the Rook do on d1 apart from guard the pawn? In both the other lines it is looking foward to joining it's Kingly brother in attacking down the f-file.

I don't think Rac8 achieves anything for Black either, but as we've seen in the Nxc6 lines, it's easier for Black to respond than to come up with moves that achieve anything.

Maybe Black's best here is d5, intending Bd6, in an echo of the Qg3 lines. But more to the point, what is White's follow up? What is the plan after Rad1?

Nov-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Thanks for the summary, Ohio. Sorry if I neglected you in my rush to collect material on the 2 main contenders, but you did a fine job with #3 there...

I'm not sure if it's going to be me again next, or the return of <twinlark>. It may take pistols at dawn to decide...

Nov-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: whee!! a duel!!!
Nov-02-06  technical draw: Darn, I thought it was a real duel. Now I just see it's Dom's buche y pluma na' ma'...
Nov-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: <technical draw: Darn, I thought it was a real duel....>

They couldn't draw...

Nov-04-06  twinlark: <Ohio> I've started that forum you suggested for 25.Ra3 on <stevens> forum.

There are at least four more forums we need to start before the analyses become too far flung to collect, one of the most important being the follow up to 25.Rf3 Nd5.

Would you be willing to take this one on? You'd have it for the best part of a week and it could get pretty hectic.

Otherwise 25...Re7, 25...Bg7 or a sweeper forum are also available if you'd like to take something else on.

Nov-05-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Forum Update **

This forum is for discussion of the position arising after 23.d4 Nd3 24.Qd2 Nb4 25.Rf3 Nd5.


click for larger view

Nov-05-06  yanez: after Ne5 I think we should play 26.Nxe5 bxe5 26.f6 Re6 27.Rf1 Re8 28.Qf4 Qd7 29.h4
Nov-05-06  twinlark: The following deep ply analysis is copied from <Random Visitor>'s profile and is the benchmark from which the discussion should continue:

<[C1] 23.d4 Nd3 24.Qd2 Nb4 25.Rf3 Nd5

[C11] 26.Raf1 Qe7 27.Nxd5 cxd5 28.fxg6 fxg6 29.b4

[now the score is 0.30/24-ply with 29...Qe4 best for black]

29...Bg7 30.b5 axb5 31.Qb4 [score now: 0.38/22-ply with Qe2 or Rab8]

31...Rab8 32.Kh1

[C12] 26. Raf1 Nxc3 27.Qxc3 and now:

[C12a] 27...Re7 28.Qb3 Rae8 29.Qc4 Qc8 30.fxg6 hxg6 31.Rc3 Qb7 32.Qxc6 Qxc6 33.Rxc6 Re2 34.g3 Rxb2 0.27/27-ply

[C12b] 27...d5 28.Bc5 Bh6 29.h3 Rac8 30.Kh1 Qc7 31.Qb4 Rb8 32.Qa3 Qc8 33.fxg6 fxg6 34.Bd6 0.25/27-ply>

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