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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 24 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-11-06  Thorsson: <Brent Baccala: Continuing on a post I made on the main forum, noting that he might want to trade knights on d5 because of the constricting effect on our bishop, has this forum looked at NOT retaking a black knight on d5? Maybe playing 26. Na4 instead?>

Dunno about the forum, but I have and I am convinced that we take on d5. Our B will not remain locked at b6 once we get to the ending, and before that it does a valuable job.

Yes it would be good to get it onto d4 in some lines, but if we could manage that (without giving up anything) as well as lining up the 2Rs & Q, we'd have a won game and we wouldn't need to debate these lines at all... ;)

Nov-11-06  Thorsson: <25.Rf3 Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4>

I had 28.h3 as best here. Has this been refuted?

Nov-11-06  Thorsson: <Hesam7: after

25. Rf3 Nd5 26. Nxd5 cxd5 27. Raf1 Re4 28. fxg6 fxg6 29. Qg5 Qe6 30. Rf6 Be7 31. Rxe6 Bxg5 32. Rxd6 Be3+ 33. Kh1 Bxd4 34. Bxd4 Rxd4 35. h3 Rd2 36. b4 Ra7 37. R1f6

It still looks like a draw>

And what about 35...Rb4 (no hiding place for the b-pawn) and 35...Kg7 (so the K can escape 7th rank threats by Kh6 and Kg5)?

Nov-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <thorsson> says:
So let's instead look at Nd5 lines. For the sake of brevity I'm going to assume 25...Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1, as most of the better lines transpose:

C. 27...Qe7 28.h3 Qe2 (28...Qe4 29.b4 Rac8 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.b5 Rc2 32.Qg5 Be7 33.Qg3 axb5 34.a6 Re2 35.a7 b4 36.Rf4 ) 29.Qf4 Re4 30.Qc1 Qb5 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.Qc7 and the f7 weakness will prove fatal.

D. 27...Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qg5 Rae8 31.Kh2 Bg7 32.Rc1 R4e7 33.Rcc3. Possibly Black's best try, but White is clearly better.

Nov-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <kwgurge> says: If black plays Nd5, I'm voting for Nxd5 no matter what the engines say. For other likely black moves, I agree that Raf1 seems best.
Nov-12-06  RandomVisitor: On 25...Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qg5

there is:

30...Be7 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Re8 34.b3 Re2 35.Kh2 Re4 36.Ba7 Kg7 37.Rf7+ = (0.10) Depth: 21

Nov-12-06  RandomVisitor: Searching deeper: On 25...Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qg5:

30...Be7 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Rd8 34.b3 Re8 35.Rf7 Qxb3 36.Qd7 Bf8 37.Bd8 = (0.19) Depth: 25 02:07:55 1142716kN, tb=8

Nov-12-06  RandomVisitor: Now at 27-ply:

30...Be7 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Rd8 34.b3 Re8 35.Rf7 Qxb3 36.Qd7 Bf8 37.Bd8 = (0.19) Depth: 27 04:52:16 2677501kN, tb=49

Nov-12-06  jepflast: <RandomVisitor: On 25...Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qg5

there is:

30...Be7 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Re8 34.b3 Re2 35.Kh2 Re4 36.Ba7 Kg7 37.Rf7+ = (0.10) Depth: 21>

To avoid this, we should forget about 28. h3 and play fxg6 or maybe even h4.

Nov-13-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <To avoid this, we should forget about 28. h3 and play fxg6 or maybe even h4.>

25...Nd5 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h4 (23-ply): 0.07 28...Qe7 29.fxg6, 0.11 28...Rg4 29.h5, 0.12 28...Be7 29.h5, 0.13 28...Rxh4 29.fxg6

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: I haven't been able to follow all the lines here (no board / no computer), but it seems to me that after Nxd5 Nxd5 cxd5 we have a positional advantage which is more than optical only. The main point, apart from the doubled pawns being a slight weakness, is that pretty much all king+pawn endgames from here are won for White, because of the possibility of b4, b5 and if the Black king goes over that way, White can gobble the kingside.

This means that we should be able to dictate the run of play in a major piece endgame since Arno will usually have to avoid piece exchanges. Query whether this would be enough of an advantage to win, but it is an edge with little prospect of losing.

I'd be suspicious that Rybka's Raf1 instead of Nxd5 is indicative of the computer's dynamism for dynamism's sake. If White does have a proper advantage after Nxd5 cxd5, it is likely to be the sort of advantage that is well-hidden over the horizon.

The above reasoning is contingent on us being able to hang on to both our d-pawn and b-pawn - if Black can get one of those at the cost of e.g. one of his doubled pawns, then the result is most likely to be a draw.

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: Thinking about this a little more, there is some danger for us in Nxd5 Nxd5 cxd5, in the fact that our bishop is more or less stuck on b6 (it should never have gone there...!), while black's is free to roam. While it does a good job of defending both a5 and d4, it leaves Black with, in effect, an extra piece to attack the other dark squares, in particular to start putting pressure on our king.

Also, by contrast to my earlier point re K and pawn endgames, my instinct is that endgames with B, Ps and Ks with this pawn structure are almost certainly drawn - if anyone has a nibble it's Black.

Maybe this is what Rybka fears in preferring not to exchange on d5.

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: This position from <Tamar's> analysis


click for larger view

White has a clear and stable edge in this position, in my view, with serious winning chances. Even Shredder sees this. White can pressure Black by trying to force exchanges and White has the extra bonus of a slightly more secure king, while the heavy pieces remain on the board. This is, I think, exactly the sort of position which we should be aiming for. Unfortunately, I don't think that the moves leading to this position are in any way forced.

However, in a similar position with DSBs on the board, I think the evaluation would be precisely the opposite. White would spend all his time looking after threats on f2 and h2, and Black would have a free rein.

Nov-13-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <AdrianP> I'm not so sure White has any advantage in the diagrammed position. What does White do in case of 39...Qf4

White might have more inviting targets than Black, but it seemed to me he has no time to exploit his small edge.

I gave up here. What did Shredder see?

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: <Tamar> I think if 39. ...Qf4, then Qe3.

You reported that Shredder saw an advantage of nearly half-a-pawn in a position with level material. It is basing that on positional factors, however crudely.

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: Another gloss (or more correctly, serious correction!) on my previous efforts. I said that I thought that positions w/ K, B, and Ps with this structure will be drawn, perhaps better for Black.

In particular instances (probably all instances where the Black bishop cannot get to d2 before White plays b4), the reverse is true, as I have now seen <Honza> pointed out a while back on the main page. E.g.


click for larger view

is totally winning for White.

Nov-13-06  AdrianP: To summarise: in v. general terms

(i) positions with this pawn structure with Bs and major pieces are (very) dangerous for White; (ii) positions with this pawn structure with just major pieces, should favour White to a quite significant extent (iii) positions with this pawn structure with just bishops are in many instances clear wins for White; in other instances, probably draws. (iv) positions with this pawn structure with pawns only are in most instances wins for White.

Nov-13-06  jepflast: <Ohio> do we have a solid line or any analysis for 26. Raf1 at this point?
Nov-13-06  RandomVisitor: <jepflast>See my forum header.
Nov-13-06  twinlark: ***MARKER DIAGRAM FOR WORLD GAME***

Position after 25...Nd4:


click for larger view

<RandomVisitor>'s substrate analysis at Section B of his profile runs as follows:

Rybka thinks that 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 is best met by 27...Re4:


click for larger view

and now:

(26-ply)
(0.16): 28.h3 Qb5 29.R1f2 Be7 30.Qc1 Bh4 31.g3 Be7 32.Kg2 Re8 33.Qf1 Qxf1+ 34.Rxf1 Bg5

Who can find a promising line after 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4?

In Thorssen's line, On 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qg5 there is:

30...Be7 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Rd8 34.b3 Re8 35.Rf7 Qxb3 36.Qd7 Bf8 37.Bd8 = (0.19) Depth: 27 04:52:16 2677501kN, tb=49

Nov-13-06  twinlark: IMPORTANT NOTICE:

Analysis of 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 will not be hosted here, but will be hosted on User: themadhair 's forum.

Analysis of 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Qe7 also will not be hosted here, but will be hosted on User: jepflast 's forum.

Nov-13-06  aragorn69: This seems to be the proper place for the 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Rac1 variation (instead of the "obvious" 27.Raf1) suggested on the main forum. Any deep engine line, yet??
Nov-13-06  weisyschwarz: What about 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.f6 as an alternative?
Nov-13-06  weisyschwarz: ...ah...nevermind, I see 29...Re2 is the response.
Nov-13-06  weisyschwarz: Okay, how about 28.Qg5 Qb5 (...Be7 29.f6!) 29.b3 Be7 30.f6 Bf8 31.Rh3 [that line was so easy it is probably shot through with holes!]
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