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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
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OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
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   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 25 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-14-06  themadhair: After 26.Nxd5 cxd5 is an early b4 an option? It seems that this move will have to played eventually and maybe by playing it early it can cause black a few headaches.
Nov-14-06  themadhair: What a traitor. Abandoning my own forum.

What say you after 26. Nxd5 cxd5 27. Rc1 Re4 28. Rc7 Qb5 29. h4 Rae8 30. fxg6 fxg6 31. h5 R8e7? The engines seem to like it.

Nov-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Rf7 Rae8 31.Qf2 Bh6 32.Kh2 was <Thorsson> and <kwgurge>'s last words last 'night'.
Nov-15-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: I see, that from the roster listing, you're on Team Black, will this count as your 4th chess game? =)
Nov-15-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I'll post this on my own forum so I can simply delete it if it's a blunder:

<26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Re4 28.h3!? Qb5 29.Kh2!? Be7 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qh6 Rh4 32.Qc1 Re4 33.Qc7 Re8

At the moment I can't decide between R1f2, b3 or Qa7/Qb7 here (maybe we should play all 3!). The idea of this line is simple - improve our position slowly as Black can't do very much. e.g. 34.R1f2 Re6 35.b3 Re1 36.Qa7.>

In Thorsson's line above, would 35. g3 be too weakening? Ideas of Qc7/c1/h6 or g5 with the e4 Rook kept off the h file. I've tried it and the perpetual checks are a problem. Anyone see anything there?

Nov-15-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <wannabe> I've doubled my games played on this site! I am not counting the games I've hung pieces against Little Chess Partner.
Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Here are some posts regarding 27. Qd3.

<whiteshark> says:
Last thought before bedtime:
What makes the difference of Qd3 in your line <26...cxd5 27. Qd3 Re4 28. Raf1> vs our mainline 27. Raf1 ? hmm

Maybe it's that black Re4 is not necessary, e.g.

26...cxd5 27. Qd3 Qe7 28. Kh1 Bh6 29. Raf1 Qe2 30. Qb3 Qc4

However, I think with the following White plan, White's assets can be realised fully - i.e. the 2-1 pawn majority on the queenside, and the bishop on b6:

Nxd5 cxd5
Qd3! Re4

(Q-d3 has the dual purpose of not only pressurising a6, but also supporting b4-b5)

Raf1 (to help consolidate the White king)
Bg7

h3 (further consolidation of the White king position) Qb7

Kh2 (consolidation further)

Rae8

and now and only now b4:

<kingscrusher> says: Whiteshark, the idea of Qd3 immediately is very simple - stop the blockade of the b-pawn by stamping out the possibility of black playing Qb5. The 2-1 pawn majority needs to be realised.

<thorsson> says:

2. What's the difference between 27.Qd3 Re4 28.Raf1 and 27.Raf1 Re4 28.Qd3? Well in the first Black doesn't have to play Re4, and in the second Black might play 27...Qb5. Let's take the latter first. 28.fxg6 fxg6 29.Qf4 looks good at first sight - does Black have anything better than retreating the Queen back whence she came? OK what about 27.Qd3? 27...Qe7 28.Raf1 Bh6 looks better than playing Re4.

I therefore suggest that we keep Qd3 in mind for next move.

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: More posts about 27. Qd3:

<weisyschwarz>: The Qd3 idea looks interesting, and deserving of a forum. Playing both sides of the board is what grandmasters do. If we can incorporate elements from both Thorrson's and Kingscrusher's lines, it may go well. I like a possible Qb3 after fxg6 and b4.

<safar> says: After 26...cxd5 27. Qd3! if the fR moves to c8, then white plays aRf1 to put pressure on f7. Black's aR is tied down to defend the a pawn. If Black does not play the rook to c8 then White plays aRc1, followed by fRc3 and then Rc7. There is also the option of Qb3 to put pressure on the pawn on d6. I think that White is better here.

<izimbra> says:
Yes, but just to be clear I was discussing the motivation for getting in a Qd3 prior to blacks Qb5 - say after Raf1 R34 (there are factors against it, but this is the positive point). And I was saying that it makes the Qb5 followup for black, but black can still position the queen on the decent square c8, and go from there to c4. So this positive aspect of Qd3 may not be as big as it first appears.

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A few posts on 27. Rc1:

<themadhair> says:
What say you after 26. Nxd5 cxd5 27. Rc1 Re4 28. Rc7 Qb5 29. h4 Rae8 30. fxg6 fxg6 31. h5 R8e7? The engines seem to like it.

<Willem Wallekers> says: The next decision point is after 26 ... cxd5. 27. fxg6 and 27. Rc1 are serious candidates.

<thorsson> replies to the above:

They are? 27.Rc1 Rac8 seems to do nothing for us and 27.fxg6 gives White the e6 square and removes the possibility of f6. I'd be astounded if either of these moves were stronger than Raf1.

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: It appears The World is convinced GMAN will play 27...Re4. Perhaps Bg7 is still worth a look. The only post I could find in that regard was:

<Gufeld Student> suggests: 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Raf1 Bg7 28.Qg5 <28.Qd3; 28.fxg6 fxg6 29.Qg5 Qe6> 28...Qb5 29.h4 Re2

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: This post from a while back is apparently the final say on 27. Rc1

<domdaniel> says: I took a general look earlier at the idea of Rc1 and switching to the c-file (I'd suggested it in a forum and thought I should check it out), but I couldn't make it work. Without going into too many concrete lines, these were some of the problems: (1) Black plays ...Qb5 (threat ...Re2) and ...Rac8. White rook penetration via c7 is preventable.

(2) After ...Rac8, we can either exchange one pair of rooks, or scurry back to the f-file with loss of tempo. While several people have argued that exchanges favour us, the exchange of one pair of rooks is often the exception. One reason is that we're currently closer to doubling rooks on the f-file than black is to any equivalent maneuver. The 'rook pair' is one of our temporary advantages, not to be thrown away.

(3) In lines where we play fxg6 - which seems almost inevitable - it becomes clear that our rooks belong on the f-file. Again, getting there from c1 loses tempo.

(4) There might be a possible finesse - 'sacrificing' tempo to induce Black to do the same - in a line like 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Rc1 Rac8 28.Rcf1 Qb5 29.fxg6 fxg6 30.Qf4 -- although here I think we've sacrificed more with the two-step journey to f1, Black's rook is well placed on c8, and his a6 pawn is not weak. We have kingside threats, but nothing we can't get via 27.Raf1. The c-file feint arguably distracts black from the ...Re4 idea, but he gets plenty of compensation.

(5) Avoiding fxg6 and trying to operate entirely in the c-file, eg 26.Nxd5 cxd5 27.Rc1 Rac8 28.R3c3? simply gives Black time to play ...Qxf5 after chopping rooks. Finally, once rooks are opposed on the c-file we have to act - either exchanging them or moving the Rc1 away. I just tried this line on Fritz: it opted for Rc1-f1 rather than Rxc8.

You may well find something different - and the c-file is optically tempting. However it seems that black has adequate resources, and the only real result is loss of time. I've come to the conclusion that the rooks belong on the f-file.

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Thanks for posting the above. I was about to dig it out and post it here, but you beat me to it. Thorsson has also said that after 27.Rac1 then 27...Rac8 is perfectly OK for black.

The idea of 27.Rac1 will probably turn up a few times over the next couple of days. But I really think it's a non-runner, despite the optical attraction of the c-file.

I suppose it's possible there might be something in the rook exchange line with, eg, 27.Rac1 Rac8 28.Rxc8 etc, but I wasn't able to find anything concrete - plus, it weakens our back rank and we might have to pull the remaining rook back from f3 to f1. And I'd rather have a rook pair on the f-file.

Nov-16-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: Rybka analysis of 27.Qd3 Bh6 (21-ply):

(0.00) 28.Raf1 Qb7 29.Rh3 Bg5 30.Rg3 Qe7 31.Kh1 Bh6
(0.00) 28.h3 Qb7 29.Raf1 Rac8 30.Kh2 Re4 31.fxg6 fxg6

Must be a draw - compare with analysis of 27.Raf1 Re4 28.Qd3 Bh6 in User: themadhair 's forum.

Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Rc1>

<domdaniel> says: 27.Rc1 Rac8 28.fxg6 Rxc1+ 29.Qxc1 fxg6 30.Qf1 - which is pretty promising for White, I think, although the engines don't rate it too highly. But it's better than the other Rc1 lines I had looked at. I suspect the low engine eval is due to a misreading of the bishop ending if all the heavy pieces come off, eg in a line like 30.Qf1 Qb7 31.Rc3 Re7 32.Qc1 followed by Rc7 and mass exchanges.

30.Qf1 puts black on the defensive immediately re the a6-pawn, and threatens Rf3-c3-c7 with mating threats. It also makes b4 easier, and black can't play ...Qb5 with our queen on f1. So it answers the brief of working on both sides of the board.

But black can deviate in a couple of ways. Mainly, he doesn't have to play 28...Rxc1+. After 28...fxg6, we're back in a line like the ones I considered earlier, where playing 29.Rxc8 achieves little and moving the c1-rook again wastes tempo.

I'm still not sure if there's anything in the idea, but it needs to be looked at properly, and I reommend holding off those 'automatic' votes for Raf1 until this is done. There's just a chance that it's better than our existing mainline.

Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <thorsson> says: Where's the analysis on 27.Rc1 Rac8 28.fxg6 Rxc1+ 29.Qxc1 fxg6 30.Qf1 Qc8 showing how the other Rooks come off and we get a winning ending?
Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: < 27. Rc1 >

<thorsson> says: After 27.Rc1 Rac8 28.fxg6 Rxc1+ 29.Qxc1 fxg6 let's just arrange a swap of the remaining Rooks and see what happens. 30.Re3 Rxe3 31.Qxe3 and Black has the tactical shot Qf5, so let's sort that out first, 30.h3 Bg7 31.Re3 Rxe3 32.Qxe3 Bf6 33.b4 Kg7 (not Black's most dynamic defense, but there's a point to be made) 34.Qe2 Qc8 35.b5 axb5 36.Qxb5 (could we ask for more?) 36...Qc1+ 37.Qf1 Qe3+ 38.Qf2 Qc1+ 39.Kh2 Bg5.

Not exhaustive by any means, but I think it ought to be clear that the Black Queen can hold the position on our own if we just go for a Rook exchange.

Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: < 27. Rc1 >

<whiteshark> says: 27.Rc1 Re4 28. Rc7 Qe8 29. fxg6 fxg6 30. h3 Re1+ 31. Rf1 Rxf1+ 32. Kxf1 Qe4 33. Qe2 Qf5+

sub-lines:
- 31. Kf2 Re4 32. Rcf7 Be7! 33. Qh6 Qxf7 34. Rxf7 Kxf7 35. Qxh7+ Kf6 (unclear) - 31. Kf2 Re4 32. Rff7 Be7! 33. Rf3 Bf8

- 33. Qc2 Qe6

Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: < 27. Rc1 >

<Gufeld Student> says: Here is an idea in the Rc1 line. I don't know whether it has previously been posted. 27. Rc1!? Rc8 28. Rcf1!? <<[The idea is that the rook is better on a8 than on c8 because of the support it gives the a pawn. Re8 is the only other square this piece should seek to occupy]>>28...Re4 <Bg7,Qb7 considered later> 29. Qd3 Ra8 30. Qb3. Here is the point: Black is forced to lose a move.

Nov-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: < Not 27. Rc1 >

<izimbra> says: I'd play Qb5 in repsponse as black. Rc1 isn't particularly bad, but the premise, as I understand it, for why it could be better is the bishop support for c7, and that idea isn't apparently important with other things going on.

Nov-18-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: < Not 27. Rc1 >

<Artar1> says: have taken a look at 27.Rc1, and while it's not a bad move, it does not blow Black off the board:

27.Rc1 Qe7 28.h3 Rac8 29.Kh2 Qe4 30.Rff1 Bg7 31.Rce1 Qh4 32.Rxe8+ Rxe8 33.fxg6 fxg6 34.Qf2 Qe7 35.b4 <[35.Qf3 Qe6 36.Qd3 Qc8 37.Qd2 Qc4 38.Rc1 Qb5 39.Qg5 Kh8 40.Rc7 Qf1 ; 35.Qc2 Qd7 36.Qd3 Qc8 37.Qd2 Qc4 38.Rc1 Qb5 39.Qg5 Kh8 40.Rc7 Qf1 ]> 35...Qe6 36.Qg3 Qe2 37.Qf3 Qe6 38.Qd3 Ra8 39.Qb3

Each move was done to 18-ply using Fritz 8 on a 2 GHz machine over 6 hours. (Not exactly blitz chess.)

Nov-18-06  GufeldStudent: By the way, I disagree with my earlier assessment of Rc1. Some lines are promising, but mostly we just end up losing time. Somebody would have to make a big dent in Thorsson's recomendations to really make it worth playing.

raf1 is pretty much a fordrawn conclusion, I think

Nov-18-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** White has just played 27. Raf1 **

This forum is now discussing 27...Bg7

Nov-18-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan:


click for larger view

What are White's options in this line?

Nov-19-06  twinlark: I'm still running 27...Re4 28.Qc3. Where do you come up with these moves?
Nov-19-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: Moving the white Q off the c1-h6 diagonal, especially if h3 has not been first played, must be examined very, very carefully. The added scope black's B gets on h6 as well as his control of the c1-h6 diagonal could be very dangerous and limiting to white's ability to maneuver.
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