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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 27 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-20-06  Boomie: 35...Bg7 seems better.

28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Re6 32.R1f2 Rce8 33.Rf7 Rf8 34.Rxf8+> Bxf8 35.b4 Bg7 36.Qg8+ Qe8 37.Qxe8+ Rxe8 38.b5 Ra8 39.bxa6 Rxa6 40.g4

Nov-20-06  Boomie: To be fair, this last position is probably a draw. It's the R+B endgame that we want to avoid. Fritz thinks it's a win but what does he know about endgames?


click for larger view

Nov-20-06  certainlynot: has anyone looked at 28 ..Rc6? since Bg7 leads to such a clearly favorable line for White, maybe Black has something else in mind. also, what about in the main line 31 ..Re4, which doubles up on the d-pawn and requires us to move a rook over to defend?
Nov-21-06  Elixir of Life: Hey, I have an idea. It may be a bad line, but anyway, how does this line look to us? 28.h3 Bg7 29.g4
That way we'll have a neat pawn structure on the kingside flank. I haven't looked into all the sublines, and I haven't done a blunder check with the engine, but it's an idea we could all look into.
Nov-21-06  Boomie: I've looked at the 28...Bg7 line and find that up to 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Re6 32.R1f2 Rce8, white either wins or draws as in the diagrammed position below. If someone can figure out how to win the R+B endgame, then 28...Bg7 is cracked.
Nov-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <certainlynot> Neither Rc6 nor Re4 are serious threats to win material. White's play on the f-file after h3 forces black to retreat his heavy pieces.
Nov-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <Elixer of Life> If white plays g4 and we get down to an ending, white's king can never penetrate on the kingside which allows black's king to walk to the Q-side to defend against the a-pawn advancing after b4/b5. g4 is an important square to keep open for possible later use by the white king.
Nov-21-06  RookFile: So I thought we already talked about this endgame. In my tired mind, I don't see why, by route of f1, white's king can't just stroll up to b5. Then somebody else posted a line involving Rc2, Rc7, Ra7 or something.
Nov-21-06  Boomie: <RookFile> The problem with the Rc7-Ra7 plan is how does white advance the pawn? While the white king is lumbering over the the queen side, black will probably be able to mobilize his bishop. Anyway there may be a way to win it. I don't have the technique worked out and was hoping somebody would prove it.


click for larger view

Nov-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <Thorsson, Boomie, whiteshark , etal> 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Re6 32.R1f2 Rce8 33.Rf7 Rf8 34.Rxf8 Bxf8 35.Qf4 Qe8 36.b4 Bg7 <36...Be7 37.Qc1 Rf6 38.Rxf6 Bxf6 39. Qc7> 37.Qg5 Qc6 38.Qd8+ Rd8 39.Qc7 Qxc7 40. Bxc7 Re6 perhaps followed by 41.Bb6 Re4 42.b5 axb5 43.a6 Bxd4 44.Bxd4 Rxd4 45. Ra2 Improvements for Black?
Nov-21-06  Karpova: What's wrong with 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.R1f2 ? (30...Re4 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.Qg5)
Nov-22-06  Boomie: <Karpova: What's wrong with 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.R1f2?> There may be nothing wrong with it. However black can play h6 to prevent Qg5 and it's a different game. For example, 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.R1f2 h6 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.Rf7 Rf8 33.Ra7 g5 34.Rxf8+ Rxf8 35.Qe3 Qf1 36.Qe6+ 1.00/13


click for larger view

Nov-22-06  Boomie: <kwgurge: 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Re6 32.R1f2 Rce8 33.Rf7 Rf8 34.Rxf8 Bxf8 35.Qf4 etc.> I looked at 35.b4, which works out well. After 35.Qf4 Qe8 36.b4 Bg7 37.Qg5, I was puzzled what white has accomplished for the lost tempi besides getting the black queen to move to e8. Anyway after 37...Qc6 38.Qd8+ Rd8, white has the charming move b5, which isn't a killer but wins aesthetic points. 39.Qc7 however is a blunder. Black can play 39...Qxc7 40.Bxc7 Bxd4 and suddenly it's black who has winning chances.
Nov-22-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <Boomie> I disagree only with your conclusion. 41.Bxd6 and white's queenside pawn majority is unassailable, while black's isolated d-pawn is very vulnerable. I think black would find it very difficult to both defend his d-pawn and stop b5/a6, etc.
Nov-22-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio.
This is a Forumista digression, so you can zap it once read. Or before, if you want.

Thanks for dumping that pile of my old analytic crap back on my doorstep. I'll keep it for posteriority, and as a reminder of how dumb I can be.

I'm ready to take over forum coordination whenever <twinlark> wants. Either his original going-away date of Nov 29th, or sooner if he's under pressure now.

My problem is the zone from Monday morning to Weds afternoon, my time - this is when I try to compress a week's work into two-and-a-bit days. It varies a lot - this week was (is? the phone could still ring again...) a nightmare, but if I organize myself better it can be easier.

Still, it would probably be best if you were free to take over for those 2-3 days. It's impossible to know yet how busy things will be forum-wise. I could manage to post reminders on the gamepage, but trying to deal with other stuff would be plain crazy.

And I try not to do <plain> crazy.

Let me know your thoughts sometime. Is a double switcheroo feasible, and have you the time to spare for it? And if this discussion is in the way here, just move it over to my forum - currently pretty anarchic.

Thanks.

Nov-22-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: My time problem is always 1400 EST- Chesschallenge Move time. That's my alleged quitting time. If I have to stay late, which is often, I don't have time to get on before 1400, and can no way get on for a few hours after. If I don't stay late, I am very reluctant to head straight home. I like to hike, and hate to cook, so I either exercise, and/or stop to eat out most days. If the forum hosts can handle not having an assignment immediately after a move is made, there's no problem.
Nov-22-06  Boomie: <kwgurge: I disagree only with your conclusion. 41.Bxd6 and white's queenside pawn majority is unassailable...> Perhaps we're looking at different positions. 41.Bxd6 allows Bxf2. I'm looking at 28.h3 Bg7 29.Kh2 Qb5 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Re6 32.R1f2 Rce8 33.Rf7 Rf8 34.Rxf8 Bxf8 35.Qf4 Qe8 36.b4 Bg7 37.Qg5 Qc6 38.Qd8+ Rd8 39.Qc7 Qxc7 40. Bxc7 Bxd4


click for larger view

Nov-23-06  twinlark: ***MARKER FOR THE WORLD GAME***

Black has played 28...Bg7. This forum will look at 29.Qd3:


click for larger view

<RandomVisitor> has the following analysis:

0.29): 29.Qd3 Qc6 30.Kh2 Qc4 31.Qd2 Qb5 32.R1f2 Re4 33.fxg6 fxg6 34.Qg5 Rf8 35.Rxf8+ Bxf8

Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 (23-ply):

(0.42) 31...Rb2, 31...Rb4, and 31...Bg5;
(0.43) 31...Qe7

This looks safe. Will check further.

Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: This forum is for analysis of proposed move 29. Qd3. This is the position AFTER that move:


click for larger view

Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: A few questions to generate discussion.

Why does 29. Qd3 score so well on Rybka's analysis after h3 when it was so poorly rated before h3?

Did the pawn push reduce Black's threats so much we can make the pawn grab on a6?

Do we want to follow Qd3 with the pawn capture at a6?

Nov-23-06  GufeldStudent: Well, in answer to your first question, I think a big reason that the evaluation changed is that the g4 square is no longer available to the black queen (biggest reason I voted for h3).
Nov-23-06  Karpova: <Did the pawn push reduce Black's threats so much we can make the pawn grab on a6?>

Look at this 28.Qd3-line:
28.Qd3 Bh6 29.Qa6: Rc2 30.b3 gxf5 31.Rf5: Ree2 32.Qa8+ Kg7 33.Rf7:+ Qf7: 34.Rf7:+ Kf7: 35.Qd5:+ Kg7 36.Qb7+ Kg6 and black wins:


click for larger view

Now let's insert 28.h3 Bg7 and then play it like that:


click for larger view

White didn't check on b7+ an can safely play Qf3 now with a winning advantage - and why? Answer: White gains a temo due to the fact that there's no back rank mate threat!

Nov-23-06  Karpova: Sure, there are probably many improvements for both sides but i think it's good enough to demonstrate the use of 28.h3 The Qf3 for prevents Bf4, which is deadly in the 28.Qd3-line (and the reason for white's unability to move the h-pawn and having to go for 37.Kf1 instead)
Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <GufeldStudent> says: Question, does Qd3 now work because g4 is covered?

It seems Bh6 does not work any longer and that Qc6 is best now by Qxa6 is met by Bxd4.

<themadhair> says: I like our queen on d2, at least for the time being. It exerts some pressure on the black kingside that GMAN will have to keep an eye on.

Not convinced yet that Qd3 actually threatens the a6 pawn - it gives black to much counterplay IMO. But these are questions that need to be answered by analysis before any hasty votes.

<Tabanus> says: I think Qd3 will transpose to the main Kh2 variation. So at least we don't have to be afraid of it. Also I think Qd3 will 'force' his queen to b5 (which is probably the best square anyway). So there's left two 'points' with Qd3: a) save a week for analysis, and b) hope for Bh6 (a trap he will not fall into).

<Tabanus> suggests this computer line: After 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4!, 23-ply (0.42) 31...Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3 gxf5 34.Rg3+ Kh8 35.Bc5 Ra4 36.Bxd6

<Thorsson> suggests: I thought Qd3 didn't work either due to Bh6, but for the moment I can't find anything wrong with this line:

29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3, e.g. 33...Qe7 34.fxg6 hxg6 35.Rc7

<GufeldStudent> replies to <Thorsson's> line: Perhaps after 33. Rc3, ...Rb2 is good for black.

<Thorsson> replies to <GufeldStudent's> last post: You may be right. I've decided that 34.Rc7 is better

<Tabanus> replies to <Thorsson's> line: 31...Bg5 and 31...Qe7 is also possible.

<Thorsson> responds to <Tabnus'> suggested moves for Black:

Qe7 is certainly better, and probably better than the Kh2 lines as Black gets more activity.

<GufeldStudent> suggests this line in response to <Thorsson's> line: Consider this queen sac line 33...Rb2 34. Kh2 computer reccomended, Qe6 35.Qb7 Qe4 36. Rcf3 Bf4+ 37.Kh1 Qxf3! 38.gxf3 Ree2 with a draw by perpetual check.

<Thorsson> responds to <GufeldStudent's> perpetual check line:

Consider instead 34.Rc7 Qa4 (computer move) 35.fxg6 hxg6 36.Qb7

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