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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 28 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <sandmanbrig> says; To those who didn't vote Qd3 last time, it is more effective now because Bh6 doesn't have nearly as much power as it did before. AN will basically be forced to give us the passed a-pawn.

<Tabanus> replies to <sandmanbrig> : That's true after 29...Bh6, but not after 29...Qc6: 30.Qxa6? Bxd4+! 31.Kh1 Re7

<Nightranger> says: It seems to me that Qd3 wasn't all that bad a move before. It was Qxa6 when the wheels started to come off of the cart. I even looked at letting black capture the b-pawn since the idea after b4-b5 was to get a passed a-pawn. Qd3 I think changes our game, since it limits the Q's ability to get KS.....After Kh2, R1f2 possibly b3, we could look at Qd3. At this point, if AN hasn't made any significant strides, he will have to decide what happens to the black a-pawn.

Nov-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Willem Wallekers> says: I've been analyzing 29. Qd3 Bh6 30. Qxa6. It's safe and probably winning. I still have to edit the analysis and hope to publish it here to-morrow. If I'm right he has to make a defensive move like 29 ... Qc6 or 29 ... Rc6 which gives us all opportunities on the K-side or 29 ... Qb5 giving us a passed pawn for free.
Nov-23-06  Boomie: Funny thing about RVs Qd3 line 29.Qd3 Qc6 30.Kh2 Qc4 31.Qd2 Qb5 32.R1f2 Re4 33.fxg6 fxg6 34.Qg5 Rf8 35.Rxf8+ Bxf8 is it transposes to the R+B endgame that we see in a lot of the Kh2 lines. That's because in the Rybka line, the queen returns to d2 on move 31. What has white gained for the lost tempi? Nothing.
Nov-23-06  Brent Baccala: <OhioChessFan: I mean, that I wish Chessgames would quit allowing new people to sign on today, and vote. I simply don't think it's fair for a group of people to have put so much time and effort into this game, and possibly have a bunch of newbies get on board and make a one move blunder and ruin our body of work. I believe we are winning. I believe we can be the first World team to pull that off. If GMAN manages to hold his position, kudos to him. But if a bunch of people with nothing invested in the game jump on board at the last minute and sink us........>

Well, it's an experiment in democracy, as we've discussed here before, right?

I mean, in the final analysis, it's just a game. If "the majority" can't show enough decency and good sense to manage a chess game through to its conclusion, then what does that say about their ability to manage a government?

So let them go. If they blow the game, then it will be one of those, as the song says, "things that make you go hmmm..."

Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3 (24-ply):

(0.25) 33...Qe7 34.Rc8 [34.Rc7? Qe1!] 34...Rb3! 35.Kh2 Rb2! 36.Rxe8+ Qxe8

Terrible. Black starts playing on the dark squares.

Nov-24-06  Elixir of Life: I have a question: currently, it seems that most people support Qd3 because it takes a pawn. I have a question: what compensation does black get for the pawn it loses?
Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <Elixir of Life> 29.Qd3 Qc6 and we cannot take the pawn: 30.Qxa6? Bxd4!, so 30.Kh2, e. g. 31...Qc4 32.Qd2 Qb5, transposing to the main line.

For a danger of 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6, see post above.

Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio. Re forums - <twinlark> has passed me the magic loud-hailer, so I'll start posting the updates and reminders as needed. As for the future, movetime is 7pm here which makes it relatively easy - even if I'm otherwise busy I can be available then for decision-making etc. I might ask you to take over the game-page reminders on Tues-Weds, though... but we can let that wait for now. thanks
Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: Some negative points about Qd3:
1) It makes it harder for the Q to participate in kingside activities; 2) It gives black more counterplay, especially on the dark squares; 3) The attack on a6 is not worth much as white does not need to win the a pawn in order to create a queenside passer.
Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: Rybka 2.1q analysis of 29.Qd3 Bh6 (24-ply):

(0.35) 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 Rb2 32.Kh2 Rxb4 33.Rc3 Qe7 34.Rc8 Rb2 35.Qa8 Rxc8 36.Qxc8+ Bf8

(0.32) 30.fxg6 hxg6 31.Kh2 Qb7 32.b4 Re7 33.b5 axb5 34.Qxb5 Ra8 35.Ra1 Ra6 36.Rb1 Ra8

(0.28) 30.Kh2 Qb7 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.b4 Rc4 33.Rf6 Re3 34.Rf8+ Kg7 35.Qb1 Qb7 36.b5 axb5

(0.01) 30.Kh1 Qb7; (0.00) 30.R1f2 Qb7; (0.00) 30.Rg3 Qb7

Sliding forward: 30.Qxa6 Rc2 [30...Rc4: 20-ply (1.04) 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.b3] (23-ply):

(0.41) 31.b4 Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3 gxf5 34.Rg3+ Kh8 35.Bc5 Ra4 36.Qxd6 Qxd6

(0.24) 31.b3 Qe7 32.Kh2 Qe4 33.Kh1 Qe2 34.Qxe2 Rexe2 35.fxg6 hxg6 36.Rg3 Ra2

Sliding forward: 31.b4 (23-ply):

a) (0.42) 31...Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3 gxf5 34.Rg3+ Kh8 35.Bc5 Ra4

b) (0.42) 31...Rc4 32.Kh1 Rxb4 33.Rc3 gxf5 34.Rg3+ Kh8 35.Bc5 Ra4

c) (0.42) 31...Bg5 32.Kh1 Rb2 33.Qd3 Rxb4 34.Qc3 Rb5 35.fxg6 fxg6 36.Qa3 Rc8

d) (0.43) 31...Qe7 32.fxg6 hxg6 33.Qb5 Qe2 34.Qxe2 Rexe2 35.Rg3 Kh7

Sliding forward on a): 31...Rb2 32.Kh1 Rxb4 [32...Rf8!?: 22-ply (0.42) 33.Rc3, e. g. 33...Qa4 34.Bc7! (34.fxg6 fxg6 35.Rc8 Qxb4 36.Rxf8+ Bxf8 37.Qd3 (37.Qb7 Rf2 draw!) and the a-pawn should win..?) 34...Qxb4 35.Rcf3 and the a-pawn should win] 33.Rc3 (24-ply):

(0.25) 33...Qe7 34.Rc8 [34.Rc7 Qe1!] 34...Rb3! 35.Kh2 Rb2! 36.Rxe8+ Qxe8

Sliding forward on d): 31...Qe7 32.fxg6 hxg6 (24-ply):

(0.41) 33.Qb5 Qe2 34.Qxe2 Rexe2 35.Rg3 Kg7 36.Kh1 Rb2 37.Bc7 Rxb4

(0.35) 33.Qd3 Qe2 34.Qxe2 Rexe2 35.Rg3 Kg7 36.Kh1 Rb2 37.Bc7 Rxb4

(0.29) 33.Kh2 Qe2 34.Qxe2 Rexe2 35.Rg3 Rb2 36.a6 Rxb4 37.Ra1 Re8,

where the two top lines are identical but have different scores (0.41 and 0.35).

I don't like it. The variation tree is 'thick' (several possibilities on each and every ply) and the distant Qa6 and Bb6 allows black counterplay on the dark squares (after Qe7) where in some cases he can even sac the queen to get a draw by repetition. From the starting positions after 29.Qd3, some of the tactical dark-square possibilities will probably be beyond a 28-ply horizon.

29.Qd3 is risky - too risky for me!

Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <Tabanus> Very good work. It shows that while the numerical evals for Qd3 are similar to those for Kh2, it just give black too much counterplay.
Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <kwgurge> Thanks. <RV>'s evals 0.27 (20-ply) and 0.29 (27-ply) for 29.Qd3 are both based on the transposition to the main line - Rybka does not see the Bh6 possibilities before they are played out.
Nov-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: have we looked at 29.Qd3 Qc5 30.b3 ?
Nov-24-06  themadhair: <29.Qd3 Qc5 30.b3> 29...Qb5 I assume. 30.Qxb5 wins almost on the spot.
Nov-24-06  GufeldStudent: For some weird reason, engines can't see these lines. Is AN also a computer expert. One thing is for sure, if we ever have to fight a war with machines (like in Terminator), I want AN to be a general. Anyway, I found this line.
28...Bg7 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 Rb2 32.fxg6 fxg6 33.b5 Bg5 34.Ba7 Ree2 35.Kh1
Nov-24-06  GufeldStudent: I think Qd3 is still met by Bh6.

28...Bg7 29.Qd3 Bh6 30.Qxa6 Rc2 31.b4 Rb2 <31...Bg5 32.fxg6 fxg6 33.Rb1 Ree2 34.Qa8+ Bd8> 32.fxg6 fxg6 33.b5 Qe7 34.Qa7= since the perpetual after Qe2 cannot otherwise be pervented. Qa7 is clearly onely a draw, however.

Nov-24-06  Artar1: <Tabanus: Rybka 2.1q analysis of 29.Qd3 Bh6 (24-ply):>

Excellent work!

Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: <29.Qd3 Qc5 30.b3> 29...Qb5 I assume. 30.Qxb5 wins almost on the spot.> no I meant 29..Qc6 sorry for the typo.....
Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: <Ohio> the pawn structure FENS appear to be wrong...
Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Would you care to take on a between-moves forum while we're waiting for GMAN's reply to 29.Kh2 - assuming 200 malicious revellers don't show up and vote for 29.Qh6 etc.

There's a message on my forum about it.
Options include 29...Qb5 and 29...Rc4

thanx

Nov-25-06  Boomie: Just to kick off the Rc4 forum, here's RV's Section F. The first line has been busted by Artar1 and I. 31...h6 is far better for black. These Rybka lines are only 11 ply deep from the last move and therefore ripe for scrutiny.

(25-ply)

1. (0.58): 30.R1f2 Qb7 31.Qg5 f6 32.Qg3 g5 33.Re3 Rxe3 34.Qxe3 Bf8 35.Qf3 Kg7 36.Re2 Rc8

2. (0.37): 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Rf7 Re7 32.Rxe7 Qxe7 33.b4 h5 34.b5 axb5 35.a6 Ra4 36.Re1 Qd7

Nov-25-06  Boomie: I'm copying analysis from the main forum from the past couple of days.

<Boomie: I suspect that GMAN played Rac8 with the idea of Rc4. After wandering for hours in the Rc4 lines, I believe this gives black the best chances. Many lines peter out to equality, including RV's line. Cracking RV's line 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 took up most of my time. The key moves there are 31...h6 (not f6) and 33...Qd7. Black seems to equalize in all variations. Still this is a big world of lines which we are just now examining. I no longer trust the engine lines without thorough examination. I just noticed that Artar1 has also produced analysis on Rc4. His line does not include the h4-h5 push. I haven't time to analyze it now but I'm glad he hasn't reproduced any of my lines. This gives us a lot to consider.

I'm ommitting numerous side lines which all came out more or less equal. Each ply was examined to at least 14 depth. Although the final position rates high, even for Fritz, I don't completely trust the ratings. The engines can't evaluate the endgames. Black has achieved greater piece activity and blockaded the b-pawn. All for a relatively worthless pawn on d6.

29...Rc4 30. b3

(30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6 32. Qg3 Kh7 33. h4 Qd7 34. h5 g5 35. f6 Bf8 36. b3 Rc1 37. Rf1 Rxf1 38. Rxf1 0.55/18)

30...Rcc8 31. R1f2 Qb5 32. fxg6 fxg6 33. Qg5 Kh8 34. h4 Rg8 35. Qe7 Rge8 36. Qxd6 Rc6 37. Qg3 1.51/15>

Nov-25-06  Boomie: Here is my Artar1's work on the <29.Kh2 Rc4 30.R1f2 30...Qb7 31.Qg5 h6> line:

29.Kh2 Rc4 (In many Sicilian lines, Black finds counterplay using the c-file.) 30.R1f2 (Completes the process of positional consolidation.) 30...Qb7 31.Qg5 h6 32.Qg3 Kh7 33.fxg6+ fxg6 34.Qxd6 Rc6 35.Qg3 [35.Qxd5? 35...Rxb6 36.Qxb7 Rxb7 –+] 35...Rc1 (With the idea of Re1.) 36.Rf6! 36...Bxf6 37.Rxf6 Qg7 38.Qf3 (Threatening 39.Rf7.) 38...Re7 39.Bc5 Rb7 40.b4 (Black's play has been rendered passive.) 40...Rb1 <(Go to last paragraph and bottom diagram for continuation of mainline.)>

The alternatives are weak for Black:

<a. 40...Rc3 41.Qxd5 Qxf6 42.Qxb7+ Kg8 43.Qd5+ Kh7 44.Bd6! (Protects the all important h2-b8 diagonal, thereby preventing a perpetual-check draw, and blocks the defense of the isolated a-pawn.) 44...h5 45.b5 axb5 46.a6 b4 47.Be5 (Once a recluse, the White Bishop has excellent mobility with its centralize position.) 47...Qf8 48.a7 Ra3 49.Qb7+ Kg8 50.Qb8 Rxa7 51.Qxa7 ;

b. 40...Rc4 41.Qxd5 Qxf6 42.Qxb7+ Kh8 43.Qb8+ Kh7 44.Bd6 g5 45.Be5 Qf7 46.b5 axb5 47.a6 Ra4 (There are no good moves for Black in this position.) 48.Qxb5 Ra3 49.d5 Rxh3+ (White's passed pawns are monsters.) 50.Kxh3 Qf5+ 51.Kh2 Qxe5+ 52.g3 Qd4 53.Qb7+ Kg6 54.Qb1+ Kg7 55.Qa2 ;

c. 40...Re1 41.Rxa6 Rd7 (41...Qc7+ 42.Rd6 Qc8 43.Qxd5 Rg7 44.Rf6 Qc7+ 45.Qd6 Qb7 46.Rf8 Rf7 47.Rxf7+ Qxf7 48.d5 Rd1 49.a6 Rxd5 50.Qe7 ) 42.Rf6 Re8 43.b5 R1e3 44.Qf4 R3e4 45Qd6 (White has the upper hand and will push his pawns forward);

d. 40...Qc7+ 41.Rd6 Qc8 42.Rxa6 Qf5 [42...Qb8+ 43.Rd6 Rg7 44.Qxd5 Qf8 45.Qf3 Qf5 (45...Qxf3 46.gxf3 White's pawns will prove to be too much.) 46.a6 (There will be no stopping White's passed pawns.] 43.Rf6 Qxf3 44.Rxf3 Ra1 45.Rf6 Kg7 The rooks are needed on the a- and b-files to try and stop White's pawn advance. 46.Rd6 Ra4 47.Rxd5 h5 48.h4 Rf7 49.Re5 Rf4 50.Kg3 Rg4+ 51.Kf3 Rxh4 52.Re3 Kf7 53.d5 Rhxb4 54.Bxb4 Rxb4 55.Ra3 Rb7 56.a6 Ra7 57.Ke4 Ke7 (White's passed pawns will prove to be decisive.)>

41.Rxa6 R1xb4 (There are no other alternatives as the previous variations have shown.) 42.Bxb4 Rxb4 43.Qxd5 Qxd4 44.Qf7+ Qg7 45.Qe6 Rb5 46.Rd6 Re5 47.Qc8 Re7 48.Qc5 Qf7 49.Qd4 Qg7 50.Qf4 h5 51.a6 Qe5 52.Rd4 Qxf4+ 53.Rxf4 Ra7 54.Ra4

Nov-25-06  Boomie: <Artar1:

33.fxg6 may be more active for White in your 30.R1f2 line:

<30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6 32. Qg3 Kh7 33. h4 Qd7 34. h5 g5 35. f6 Bf8 36. b3 Rc1 37. Rf1 Rxf1 38. Rxf1>

Here is my mainline to move 40:

30.R1f2 Qb7 31.Qg5 h6 32.Qg3 Kh7 <33.fxg6+ fxg6> 34.Qxd6 Rc6 35.Qg3 Rc1 36.Rf6! Bxf6 37.Rxf6 Qg7 38.Qf3 Re7 39.Bc5 Rb7 40.b4>

Nov-25-06  Boomie: <From noctiferus>

Some analysis by Rybka 2.2,after 29...Rc4 30. b3 30...Rcc8 suggesting some different lines, in the case you want to compare alternatives

Analysis by Rybka 2.2 32-bit 20 ply:

1. ² (0.38): 31.Qd3 Ra8 32.Re3 Kh8 33.Rxe8+ Qxe8 34.Qg3 Qc6 35.Qf4 Rc8 36.Re1 Qd7 37.f6 Bf8

2. = (0.22): 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.Rf7 Re7 33.Rxe7 Qxe7 34.b4 Ra8 35.Qc3 Qb7 36.Qb3 Rc8 37.Qd3 Ra8

3. = (0.20): 31.R1f2 Re4 32.fxg6 fxg6 33.b4 h6 34.Rf7 Qb5 35.Ra7 Rf8 36.Qc2 Qc4 37.Rxf8+ Bxf8

specifically, in your line, ryb finds that black could be better, perhaps, with 33. Re6 instead of Kh8:

33...Re6 34.Bd8 h6 35.Qg4 Qe8 36.Bf6 Rc7 37.Bxg7 Kxg7 38.Rf5 Rce7 39.Rxd5 Rf7 40.Rdf5

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