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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 29 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Position under discussion on this forum **

This is AFTER 29....Rc4


click for larger view

Nov-25-06  Boomie: <More from noctiferus>:

Update analysis on your candidate 33...Kh8

Analysis by Rybka 2.2 32-bit 20pl:

1. ² (0.45): 33...Re6 34.Bd8 h6 35.Qg4 Qe8 36.Bf6 Rc7 37.Bxg7 Kxg7 38.Rf8 Qe7 39.Qf3 Re4 40.Ra8

2. ² (0.68): 33...Re4 34.Bd8 Re6 35.Bf6 Rf8 36.Bxg7 Rxf3 37.Rxf3 Kxg7 38.Qd8 Qe8 39.Qb6 Qc8 40.Qa7+

3. ² (0.69): 33...Re1 34.Bd8 Re6 35.Bf6 Rf8 36.Bxg7 Rxf3 37.Rxf3 Kxg7 38.Qd8 Qe8 39.Qb6 Qc8 40.Qa7+

4. ² (0.69): 33...Rf8 34.Qe7 Rfe8 35.Qf7+ Kh8 36.Qb7 Rb8 37.Qc7 Rbc8 38.Qxd6 Rc6 39.Qg3 Qb4 40.Re3

5. ² (0.70): 33...Kh8 34.Qg4 Rf8 35.Qe6 Rfe8 36.Qxd6 Rc6 37.Qg3 Qb4 38.Re3 Rxe3 39.Qxe3 Qd6+ 40.g3

Update analysis after your 34.h4

Analysis by Rybka 2.2 32-bit 20pl:

1. = (0.19): 34...Re6 35.Bd8 h6 36.Rf8+ Bxf8 37.Rxf8+ Kg7 38.Bf6+ Kxf8 39.Qxh6+ Kf7 40.Qg7+ Ke8 41.Qxg6+

2. ² (0.54): 34...Re2 35.Rxe2 Qxe2 36.Qxd5 Qe1 37.Qg5 Re8 38.h5 gxh5 39.Qxh5 Qe4 40.Qf5 Kg8 41.Qf7+

3. ² (0.57): 34...Qd7 35.Qxd5 Qe7 36.g3 Rc1 37.Rf7 Qe1 38.b4 Qg1+ 39.Kh3 Rc3 40.Qg2 Qe1 41.Kh2

4. ± (0.74): 34...Rg8 35.Qe7 Qb4 36.Qe6 Rce8 37.Qxd5 Re7 38.g3 Rc8 39.Kg2 h6 40.Rf4 Rce8 41.Qc4

5. ± (0.74): 34...Qb4 35.Rf7 Qe1 36.h5 Qc1 37.Qxc1 Rxc1 38.Ra7 gxh5 39.Rff7 Rg8 40.Bd8 Rxd8 41.Rxg7

6. ± (0.77): 34...Ra8 35.Rf7 Qd3 36.R2f3 Qe4 37.h5 h6 38.Qxg6 Qxg6 39.hxg6 Re6 40.Rd7 Rxg6 41.Rg3

7. ± (0.77): 34...Rf8 35.Qe7 Rfe8 36.Qxd6 Rc6 37.Qg3 Rc1 38.Re3 Rcc8 39.Rf7 Rxe3 40.Qxe3 Re8 41.Qg3

As Vas Raijlich said, when one sees a drop of .15 in ryb eval, there is something in it. May be you are interested in looking into this discrepancy between the lines suggested by the two engines.

Now, to confirm these results, I'm running the same analysis with Rybka 1.2n, that seems to be the only Rybka version not affected by a hashing bug (about some draw positions), that was discovered 10 days ago.

Nov-25-06  Boomie: <From Boomie to Noctiferus>:

In the Rc4 lines after 31.Qd3 Ra8 32.Re3, I'm looking at 32...Rxe3. It looks like white maintains the initiative. The engine ratings are unreliable when they start looking into the endgame. But then again, so am I.

33.Qxe3 Qb5 34.Rf2 Re8 35.Qg3 Qc6 36.Qd3 Qb7 37.b4 1.26/15

Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: After Rc4, I wonder if we can let GMAN have the d pawn. Something like fxg6 and then Qg5, letting him have the pawn if he wants. If we trade our DSB for his, might it be worth a pawn for the King side initiative that creates? I have no idea how that would play out, but it's something I think the computers might miss.
Nov-25-06  Artar1: Boomie,

I have found an improvement for White in my mainline. I will post that work soon.

I have to admit that fatigue is now a factor for me. I have been working what seems like night and day on this game. Maybe I wouldn't have to spend so much time if I were a better player.

Nov-25-06  Boomie: After fxg6 fxg6 Qg5, the d-pawn is defended by Qd5+. Poor GMAN can't even take that. He would have to defend d5 or play Kh8 before threatening to take d4.
Nov-25-06  Boomie: I have to return to darkest reality. Good luck with everything. I'll take a look in 6 hours or so.
Nov-25-06  Artar1: <Some analysis by Rybka 2.2,after 29...Rc4 30. b3 30...Rcc8 suggesting some different lines, in the case you want to compare alternatives>

I have some misgivings about 29...Rc4 followed by 30...Rcc8. This sequence of moves loses time, and it causes me to wonder why would anyone make this move sequence in the first place, unless it forces White to move a pawn to b3, thereby weakening his queenside position. But I don't see any weakness as a result?

Does anyone have comments about this observation?

I am sure glad that we are not playing the Black pieces. I don't know what Black should play next. It's like he has really no good move to make.

Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Artar1> why the drop in Rybka's evals after Rc4?

I agree that Black's position is a mess. If we had only the f5 or the a5 pawn, I'd like our chances. But with both, Black has a real problem.

Nov-25-06  Artar1: I need some help with this line.

Although White has an advantage due to his/her positional strength, this line does call for an exchange sacrifice on move 36.Rf6 to produce winning chances. This may be fine with some, but it might be a difficult sell to the "rank and file" who have been interested in snapping up a pawn along the way.

However, it's important to point out that White's position may be drifting toward an equal position despite the current advantage. It could be that Black may very well play 29...Rc4 to create complications for us to see whether we can handle this type of position.

Any comments?

29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6 32. Qg3 Kh7 33. fxg6+ fxg6 34. Qxd6 Rc6 35. Qg3 Rc1 36. Rf6 Bxf6 37. Rxf6 Qg7 38. Qf3 Re7 39. Bc5 Rb7 40. b4 Rb1 41. Qf4

<[41. Rxa6 R1xb4 42. Bxb4 Rxb4 43. Qxd5 Qxd4 44. Qf7+ Qg7 45. Qe6 Rb5 46. Rd6 Re5 47. Qc8 Re7 48. Qc5 Qf7 49. Qd4 Qg7 50. Qf4 h5 51. a6 Qe5 52. Rd4 Qxf4+ 53. Rxf4 Ra7 54. Ra4 (Posted originally and leads to a draw.)]>

41... Rb2

<[41... R1xb4? 42. Bxb4 Rxb4 (42... Qg8 43. Bf8 Rg7 44. Bxg7 Qxg7 45. Rf7 1-0) 43. Rf7 ]>

42. Rxa6 Rf7 43. Qg3 h5 44. Re6 Qh6 45. a6 h4 46. Qg4 Ra2

<[46... Rff2 47. Re7+ Kh8 48. Qc8+ Rf8 49. Qxf8+ Qxf8 50. Rh7+ Kxh7 51. Bxf8 ]>

47. a7 Qh5


click for larger view

Nov-25-06  Artar1: <OhioChessFan: <Artar1> why the drop in Rybka's evals after Rc4?>

I can't answer your question about Rybka because I am not using that program.

At first I thought that 29...Rc4 was not that good for Black, but now I am not so sure. I need some help with this line because it's very complicated, especially if the game proceeds as follows:

<29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6>

Nov-25-06  weisyschwarz: If Qd3 soon he could:

1)move his rook back to a8.

2)go ahead and play ...Bh6 anyway.

I really believe number 2 will happen, and I prefer to keep that c1-h6 diagonal, and the initiative as well.

No, <Ohio> I don't want GMAN to have our d-pawn. Our DSB will ultimately be free.

Nov-25-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6>

<Artar1> how about 32. Qd2 and then f6 as a followup?

Nov-25-06  jepflast: I believe after 29...Rc4, 30. R1f2 wins the game in every variation.

Here are some:

30...Qb7 31. Qg5 f6 (now Black is already too weakened structurally to fight back) 32. Qg3 Qf7 33. Re3 Re4 34. Rc3 Bf8 35. b3 Rxc3 36. Qxc3 and Black will lose the f-pawn or the a-pawn, and the game.

30...Qb5 31.fxg6 fxg6 32. Qg5 Rcc8 33. Rf7

30...Rcc8 (not a bad try) 31. Qd3 Qc6 32. fxg6 fxg6 33. Qxa6 Bxd4 34. Qa7 Be5+ 35. g3

I have checked tons of sidelines in these, but feel free to check my work.

Nov-25-06  jepflast: <29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6>

32. Qg3 Kh7 33. fxg6+ fxg6 34. Qxd6

Nov-25-06  Artar1: OhioChessFan:

I will try your suggestion. Here is where my game is currently:


click for larger view

Nov-26-06  Brent Baccala: <OhioChessFan: I wonder if a forum for new kibitzers would be in order>

That's a good idea, but as Karpova noted, hard to implement.

I was thinking along the lines of a welcome page that new team members would see when they first join.

Of course, we would need buy in from the management for that, and obvious issue would be "who writes the welcome page"?

Nov-26-06  Boomie: <Artar1: have some misgivings about 29...Rc4 followed by 30...Rcc8>

Yep. That's a hard one to explain. The idea is based on black's current position being about as strong as it can get. If black tries to advance from here, he risks entering a losing endgame. So I thought what is a good way for black to lose a tempo? Rc4 seemed the safest for him. Notice that he wants us to play Qd3 at the wrong time so he can unleash Bh6. By losing a tempo here he gives us another chance to play a bad Qd3. Anyway that's what I was thinking when I made up that variation.

Nov-26-06  Boomie: <jepflast: <29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6 32. Qg3 Kh7 33. fxg6+ fxg6 34. Qxd6 >

If only it were that simple. However:

34...Rc6 35.Qg3 Ree6 36.Bc5 Rf6 37.Rxf6 Bxf6. White is better but winning is not going to be easy from here.


click for larger view

Nov-26-06  Boomie: <Artar1: I need some help with this line.>

No you don't. You seem to have busted 35...Rc1. Black has to play Ree6 there. See my reply to jepflast below.

Nov-26-06  Artar1: Boomie,

Thanks Boomie; I played this one all the way out. I used 16-ply per half move and then 18-to-20-ply per half move through the endgame. White came out on top. While I am sure there are improvements for both sides, I now believe we will not see 29...Rc4.

29.Kh2 Rc4 30.R1f2 Qb7 31.Qg5 h6 32.Qg3 Kh7 33.fxg6+ fxg6 34.Qxd6 Rc6 35.Qg3 Rc1 36.Rf6 Bxf6 37.Rxf6 Qg7 38.Qf3 Re7 39.Bc5 Rb7 40.b4 Rb1 41.Qf4


click for larger view

<[41.Rxa6 R1xb4 42.Bxb4 Rxb4 43.Qxd5 Qxd4 44.Qf7+ Qg7 45.Qe6 Rb5 46.Rd6 Re5 47.Qc8 Re7 48.Qc5 Qf7 49.Qd4 Qg7 50.Qf4 h5 51.a6 Qe5 52.Rd4 Qxf4+ 53.Rxf4 Ra7 54.Ra4 Leads to a draw according to themadhair.]>

41...Rb2

<[41...R1xb4? 42.Bxb4 Rxb4 (42...Qg8 43.Bf8 Rg7 44.Bxg7 Qxg7 45.Rf7 1–0) 43.Rf7 ]>

42.Rxa6 Rf7 43.Qg3 h5 44.Re6 Qh6 45.a6 h4 46.Qg4 Ra2


click for larger view

<[46...Rff2 47.Re7+ Kh8 48.Qc8+ Rf8 49.Qxf8+ Qxf8 50.Rh7+ Kxh7 51.Bxf8 ]>

47.a7 Qh5 48.Re1 Qxg4 49.hxg4 Rfxa7 50.Bxa7 Rxa7 51.g5 Kg7 52.b5 Rb7 53.Rb1 Kf7 54.b6 Ke7 55.Kh3 Kd8 56.Kxh4 Kd7 57.Kg3 Ke7


click for larger view

58.Kf4 Ke6 59.Rb2 Kd6 60.g3 Ke6 61.Kf3 Kd7 62.Rb3 Kd6 63.Ke3 Kd7 64.Kf4 Kd6 65.Ra3 Rxb6 66.Ra7 Rb4 67.Ra6+ Ke7 68.Ke5 Kf7 69.Ra7+ Kf8 70.Kxd5 Rb5+ 71.Kc6 Rxg5 72.Ra3 Rg4 73.d5 Ke8 74.Ra8+ Kf7 75.d6 Rxg3 76.d7 Rc3+ 77.Kb5 Rd3 78.d8Q Rxd8 79.Rxd8 1–0 (Whoopee!)


click for larger view

Nov-26-06  jepflast: <Boomie: 34...Rc6 35.Qg3 Ree6 36.Bc5 Rf6 37.Rxf6 Bxf6. White is better but winning is not going to be easy from here.>

36. Rf7 will help. But you're right this win may be tricky. Still, I'll be happy if this line is Black's best.

Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Let me post a few conclusions I've drawn. Please correct me if I'm wrong, for I plan to copy/paste this on the main page as a preliminary summary about 1300 EST today.

1. After 29....Rc4, R1f2 is our best option in nearly every line.

2. Black is still hoping for us to play Qd3 and grab the a pawn.

3. It would be plausible for Black to play Rc4/c8, trying to lose a move.

4. Most of our attention has been paid to this line:

<29. Kh2 Rc4 30. R1f2 Qb7 31. Qg5 h6 >

My suggestion: 32. Qd2 and 33. f6

Here's <jepflast's> suggestion: 32. Qg3 Kh7 33. fxg6+ fxg6 34. Qxd6

Here's <Boomie's> suggestion to the <jepflast> line:

34...Rc6 35.Qg3 Ree6 36.Bc5 Rf6 37.Rxf6 Bxf6. White is better but winning is not going to be easy from here.

<Artar1> thinks the whole line is losing for Black. Here's part of his suggested line. Please go to my forum to see the rest:

29.Kh2 Rc4 30.R1f2 Qb7 31.Qg5 h6 32.Qg3 Kh7 33.fxg6+ fxg6 34.Qxd6 Rc6 35.Qg3 Rc1 36.Rf6 Bxf6 37.Rxf6 Qg7 38.Qf3 Re7 39.Bc5 Rb7 40.b4 Rb1 41.Qf4

Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Black has just played 29....Qb5

** Current position. White to move. **


click for larger view

Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** This forum is for discussion of White's proposed move 30. Qf4 **


click for larger view

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