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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
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OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
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OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 30 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Here is Rybka's analysis from RandomVisitor's forum:

(27-ply)

3. (0.29): 30.Qf4 Qd7 31.fxg6 fxg6 32.Qd2 Qb5 33.Qg5 Re2 34.Rf7 Rcc2 35.Kh1 Re6 36.b4 Rc8

After 33.Qg5 this line has transposed into the 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 variation.

Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I just played over Rybka's line, and think there's no way in the world that's best, for either side. Anyone have some improvements on it? The 32nd move for both sides looks particularly strange.
Nov-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Ohio - just for some variety, this line came up in a game I played with two different engines. Black is lost after move 32, it seems:

30.Qf4 Re4 31.Qxd6 Bf8 32.Qg3 Qxb2 33.fxg6 fxg6 34.Qg5 Qa2 35.Rf7 Re2

(or 35...Bd6+ 36.Kh1 Bf8 [36...Re1 37.Rxe1 Kxf7 38.Qg4 wins] 37.Bd8 wins)

36.Bc7 Bg7 37.Rxg7+ winning.

Black usually gets mated around move 45. I'm not sure if it proves anything, apart from how easily the Black position can collapse.

[btw - liked your idea about a Newbie Forum, but we'd need about six of them - all the way from "Step this way, gentle beginner" to "Your Wisdom is indeed great, Master, but..." - that last one would have come in handy tonight.]

cheers

Nov-27-06  monad: <OhioChessFan: I wonder if a forum for new kibitzers would be in order>

Hiya, you could always send them to my domain (address on my forum), where newbies could work their way through our ups and downs by glancing at the playable boards I put up over the past three months.

Playing through is more accessible than long lists of lines. I will probably be able to keep that site going for the duration of the game.

Nov-27-06  ughaibu: After 30.Qf4 Qd7 what's wrong with 31.Qg4?
Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> After all these 'weirdo' moves you've been handling, how about a change of pace? Care to take on the Thorsson mainline with 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 etc ??

<jep> is taking 31.R1f2 - I'm not sure if anything else matters much, but I'll keep the eye open. Thanks...

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Sorry - I'm also going to be a bit busy (RL) tonight and early tomorrow. It shouldn't matter much - I don't expect this place to be too busy until GMAN moves, and I'll be back before then.

I'd just like to have those 2 forums - jep and you, if you're willing - up and running first.

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: White has just played 30. fxg6. Here is the resultant position:


click for larger view

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Forum Notice **

This forum is now open for discussion of proposed move 31. Qg5. This position arises after 30...fxg6 31. Qg5:


click for larger view

Nov-28-06  thegoodanarchist: So we can look at the replies 31...Rc2 and 31...Rc4. Any other candidates?
Nov-28-06  thegoodanarchist: To answer my own question, maybe 31...Re6
Nov-28-06  thegoodanarchist: 31 Qg5 Re6 32 R1f2 h6 33 Qg3 and white has the upper hand, according to Fritz 8.

In this case our plan appears to be kingside attack :)

Nov-28-06  dalbertz: A cursory look (5 minute evals) with my Fritz 9 gives me the following line:

31. Qg5 Rc2 32. Rf7 Ree2 33. Kh1 Rc8 34. R1f4 Rf8

with the following suggested lines -

Analysis by Fritz 9:

1. ± (1.27): 35.Ra7 Re6 36.Kh2 Rxf4 37.Qxf4 Rf6 38.Qc1 Rf2 39.Qe1 Qe2 40.Qxe2 Rxe2 41.Ra8+ Kf7 42.Rxa6

2. ± (1.14): 35.Rc7 Re6 36.Kh2 Qe8 37.Rxf8+ Qxf8 38.Qxd5 Qf4+ 39.Kg1 Qe3+ 40.Kh1 Bh6 41.Qf3 Bf4 42.d5

3. ± (0.93): 35.Rb7 Re6 36.Kh2 Ref6 37.Rxf6 Rxf6 38.Rb8+ Rf8 39.Rxf8+ Bxf8 40.h4 Kf7 41.h5 Qb3 42.Qf4+

Nov-28-06  Nibiru: 31. Qg5 maybe Bf8-e7?
Nov-28-06  isemeria: <30...fxg6 31. Qg5 Rc2 32. Rf7 Re6 33. Bc7> White should have considerable advantage. Variations A and B are from the main forum discussion (Thorsson, Tabanus et al.) Variation C is my HIARCS 10 with limited analysis time.

A. 33...h6 34. Qf4 Qe8 35. Bxd6 Ree2 36. Kh1 Re1 37. Rxg7+ Kxg7 38. Be5+ Rxe5 39. dxe5

B. 33...h6 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Bxd6 Rc6 36.Be5 Rxe5 37.Rxg7+ Kxg7 38.dxe5 Re6

C. 33...Qe8 34. Qxd5 Rxb2 35. Bxd6 Qxf7 36. Rxf7 Kxf7, is this a clear win for White?

Nov-28-06  dalbertz: From the posts on the main page and my playing around with my Fritz, I have become fairly persuaded that 32...Re6 is an inferior move for black since it allows White to free the bishop and get it into the attack. It looks like the main line is more likely the one with 32...Ree2.
Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Here are Rybka's eval from RandomVisitor chessforum

Section A

(28-ply search)
1. (0.49): 30.fxg6 fxg6 31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rb2 [see line B1a] 35.Kg1 Rxb4 36.Rc7 Rb2

After 30.fxg6 fxg6 there is: (26-ply)

1. (0.40): 31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Re2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kg1 h6 36.Qf4 Qe8 37.Ra7 Re2

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Section B

(28-ply in progress, 4 of 41 moves examined)

B1. (0.47): 31...Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 Rce8 36.R1f2 h6 37.Qg4 Qxb4 38.Qf3

B2. (0.52): 31...Re6 32.Rf7 Rf8 33.Rxf8+ Bxf8 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Qf3 Re4 36.b4 Bg7 37.Rf2 h5 38.b5 [possible continuation: 38...Qxb5 39.Qf7+ Kh7 40.Rf6 Qe8 41.Qxe8 Rxe8 42.Rxd6 Bh6 43.g3 0.61/24]

B3. (0.54): 31...Re2 32.b4 Rce8 33.Rf7 R2e6 34.R1f2 h6 35.Qg4 Qxb4 36.Qf3 Qe1 37.Qxd5 h5 38.Qc4

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Section C

B3. (0.54): 31...Re2 32.b4 Rce8 33.Rf7 R2e6 34.R1f2 h6 35.Qg4 Qxb4 36.Qf3 Qe1 37.Qxd5 h5 38.Qc4

Another analysis run, 27-ply:
1. (0.57): 32.b4 Rce8 33.Rf7 R2e6 34.R1f3 h6 35.Qg4 Qxb4 36.Ra7 Qe1 37.Rff7

2. (0.57): 32.Rf7 Rcc2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 h6 36.Qg4 Qe2 37.Qf4 Qe4 38.b5 Qxf4+

What if 31...Re2 32.b4 Kh8!? 33.Rf7 Qe8 34.Qxd5 Rcc2 35.Rg1

Those rooks are mean looking. But they cannot do anything: (18-ply)

1. (0.58): 35...Rc3 36.Rf3 Rc6 37.b5 axb5 38.Qxb5 Qe4 39.Qd3 Qxd3 40.Rxd3 Ra2 41.Kg3 Rcc2 42.Re3

2. (0.62): 35...Re3 36.Rc7 Rf2 37.Rgc1 Bf8 38.Rc8 Qe7 39.Bd8 Qe4 40.Qxe4 Rxe4 41.R8c2 Rxc2 42.Rxc2

3. (0.78): 35...Bh6 36.Kh1 Rc3 37.Rgf1 Qc8 38.R7f3 Qc6 39.Qxc6 Rxc6 40.Rf7 Kg8 41.Ra7 Rcc2 42.d5

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Section D

D1. (0.47): 31...Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 Rce8 36.R1f2 h6 37.Qg4 [Qc1 is strong] Qxb4 38.Qf3

Play might continue: 31...Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1

Black cannot play 33...Rxg2 because 34.Qd8+ leads to mate.

The two Black rooks look menacing, but they cannot accomplish anything, and at least 1 must be withdrawn from the 2nd rank in every line.

By the way, the computer that generated the lines that follow used about 120 hours of computer time.

In fact, White's mating threats are so strong that Black is the one who ends up sweating:

(29-ply)
D1a. (0.67): 33...Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 Rce8 36.R1f3 Rf8 37.Rxf8+ Bxf8 38.Rf2 Be7 39.Qg4 Re4 Qf3

D2a. (0.72): 33...Rc8 34.Bc7 Rf8 35.Rxf8+ Bxf8 36.Qf6 Qe8 37.Bxd6 Bg7 38.Qg5 Qb5 39.Rc1 Re8 40.Rc5

D3a. (2.00): 33...Re8 34.Rxg7+ Kxg7 35.Qf6+ Kh6 36.Qf4+ Kg7 37.Qf7+ Kh6 38.Rf4 Re1+ 39.Kh2 Rxg2+ Kxg2

D4a. (2.28): 33...Qe8 34.Qxd5+ Kh5 35.Qxd6 Re1 36.Rxe1 Qxe1+ 37.Kh2 Qe8 38.Re7 Qf8 39.Bc5 Rxb2 40.Rd7

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Section E

B2. (0.52): 31...Re6 32.Rf7 Rf8 33.Rxf8+ Bxf8 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Qf3* Re4 36.b4 Bg7 37.Rf2 h5 38.b5 [possible continuation: 38...Qxb5 39.Qf7+ Kh7 40.Rf6 Qe8 41.Qxe8 Rxe8 42.Rxd6 Bh6 43.g3 0.61/24]

*Thorsson's 35.b4 is possibly best, where best play would be:

(27-ply)
1. (0.63): 35...Bg7 36.b5 Qxb5 37.Qf7+ Kh8 38.Rc1 Re8 39.Rc7 Rg8 40.Qe6 h5 41.Qxd6 Qf1 42.Qxd5

2. (0.87): 35...Re4 36.Qg5 Qb5 37.Qf6 Qe8 38.b5 Be7 39.Qf3 Qxb5 40.Qf7+ Kh8 41.Bd8 Qd7 42.Qxd5

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: To clarify what those sections are:
Section A is one of the older lines of analysis, with the best lines for Black with 32...Rc2. It's a little redundant, but there are some ply issues involved.

Section B shows the best lines from the 3 Rook moves, 32...Rc2/Re6/Re2

Section C shows the best lines from 32..Re2
Section D shows the best lines from 32..Rc2
Section E shows the best lines from 32..Re6

Nov-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: The Rybka lines are simply a starting point. Rybka is not at its best in end games, so we should check the lines with other engines, and human analysis.
Nov-28-06  YouRang: In the line: 30...fxg6 31. Qg5 Rc2 (which seems most likely, IMO), it appears that 32. Rf7 is the 'main line' continuation, but 32. h4 might also be of interest. I'll let the computer stew on that for a while...
Nov-28-06  thegoodanarchist: <YouRang: In the line: 30...fxg6 31. Qg5 Rc2 (which seems most likely, IMO), it appears that 32. Rf7 is the 'main line' continuation, but 32. h4 might also be of interest.>

For those of the Nimzovich/Petrosian schools of prophylaxis, 32.R1f2 is also a consideration. It is by no means throwing away the advantage, but it is also not as strong...

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