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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
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OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
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   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 31 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-28-06  thegoodanarchist: Consider the following, for example, inre my previous post:

30...fxg6 31.Qg5 Rc2 32. R1f2 Ree2.

White has the surprising 33. Rb3, when the reply 33...Qxb3 gets mated.

Nov-29-06  Elixir of Life: Can anyone here use some examples to show me that the two black rooks after 31. Qg5 can do us no harm? Are we absolutely sure?
Nov-29-06  Nibiru: After 30...fxg6 31. Qg5 can black simply play Rf8 or has that already been proven bad for him?
Nov-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio
Forumwise - when GMAN moves, do you think we should open another Qg5 forum, along the lines of RV's variation tree? Maybe take the 'rooks of death' (31.Qg5 Rc2) line elsewhere, and leave you with 31...Re2 and 31...Re6 etc.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this. It could all sprout variations manically for the next 48 hrs, so a division might help lighten the workload and clarify the main lines.

thanks

Nov-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Black has just played 30...fxg6. Here is the current position:


click for larger view

Nov-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Forum Notice **

This forum is now open for discussion of proposed move 31. Qg5. Here is the resulting position:


click for larger view

Nov-29-06  Touch of Knight: I have been running Fritz 10 for about 9 hours on the end position in <RV>’s line D1a. In other words, I’ve been analysing

<31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 Rce8 36.R1f3 Rf8 37.Rxf8+ Bxf8 38.Rf2 Be7 39.Qg4 Re4 40.Qf3 Qe8>

In the above line I added 40…Qe8 which seems to be forced. Then Fritz came up with

(24-ply) (1.44): 41.b5 Qxb5 42.Qf7+ Kh8 43.Bd8 Qd7 44.Qxd5 Qe6 45.Qa8 Kg7 46.Bxe7 Qxe7 47.Rb2 Kh6 48.Rb7 Qe8 49.Qxa6 Qf8

Despite the high evaluation I am struggling to prove that this is a win. From today’s game between Kramnik and Deep Fritz, I have learned that an evaluation of more than 1 might not be enough.

Nov-29-06  diablotins: <B1. (0.47): 31...Rc2 32.Rf7 Ree2 33.Kh1 Re6 34.b4 Rc8 35.Kh2 Rce8 36.R1f2 h6 37.Qg4 Qxb4 38.Qf3>

Do we really have something winning there ? For me, it don't look so dangerous (at least). Is it questionning the strenth of Qg5 ?

Nov-29-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: Rybka 2.1q analysis of the 'panic' variation 31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Re6 (25-ply):

(0.83) 33.Bc7 h6 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Bxd6 Rc6 36.Be5 Rxe5 37.Rxg7+ Kxg7 38.dxe5 Re6 39.Qd4 Qb8 yellow lamp

(0.44) 33.b4 h6 34.Qd8+ Qe8 35.Qxe8+ Rxe8 36.R1d2 Rxf2 37.Rxf2 Ra8 38.Kg1 h5 39.Kf1 Rc8

(0.33) 33.R1f2 Rxf2 34.Rxf2 Qc6 35.Rf3 h5 36.Qd8+ Qe8

Sliding forward: 33.Bc7 h6 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Bxd6 (25-ply):

(1.07) 35...Rc6 36.Be5 Re7 37.Rxg7+ Rxg7 38.Bxg7 Kxg7

(1.42) 35...Ree2 36.Kh1 Re1 37.Rxg7+ Kxg7 38.Be5+ Rxe5

Sliding forward: 35...Rc6 36.Be5 (23-ply):

(1.08) 36...Re7 37. 37.Rxg7+ Rxg7 38.Bxg7 Kxg7 39.Rf3 g5

(1.17) 36...Rxe5 37.Rxg7+ Kxg7 38.dxe5 Re6: the 'Karpova' position

Sliding forward: 36...Re7 (19-ply):

(1.06) 37.Rxg7+ Rxg7 38. Bxg7 Kxg7 39.Rf3 g5

(0.94) 37.Rxe7 Qxe7 38.b4 g5 39.Qf5 Qe6

Sliding forward: 37.Rxg7+ Rxg7 (25-ply):

a) (1.16) 38.Bxg7 Kxg7 39.b4 (25-ply): (1.19) 39...g5 40.Qf5 Qe6

b) (0.79) 38.Qxh6 Rh7 39.Qg5 (25-ply): (0.98) 39...Rh5 40.Qg3 Qd8

Position a) is somewhat better play (active rook) and the b-pawn up. A win? Play might continue: 41.Qxe6 Rxe6 42.Rc1 Kf6 43.Rc5 ~ 1.20

Position b) is two pawns for the exchange, a safe king, and a victory for our bishop. And for us? Play might continue: 41.Rc1 Qe8 42.Rxc6 Qxc6 43.Qb3 Rh7 ~1.00

Best play (probably): 31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Re6 33.Bc7 h6 34.Qf4 Qe8 35.Bxd6 Rc6 36.Be5 Re7, which scores about 1.00. Black has big problems, but there is no clear win. A 30-ply at 37.? might clarify matters.

Nov-29-06  YouRang: I've been looking at <30...fxg6 31. Qg5 Rc2 <32. h4>>

It looks like the pawn attack: 32. h4 is a viable option for white (which may be useful to know if someone finds a hole in the 'main line' 32. Rf7).

It seems that black must play <32...Re6>, which guards the d6 pawn against Qd8+ and Qxd5. [Not 32...Re2, which loses to 33. R1f2! Qe8 34. Rxe2 Rxe2 35. Qxf5+ Kh8 36. Qxd6 ]

Now, <33. h5> (threat: 34. h6 winning the bishop).

Black needs <33...h6>, stopping h6 and giving the king some room. Then, <34. Qd8+>, giving Black 3 choices (diagram):


click for larger view

(1) 34...Ke7 35. Rf7! (threat: Rxg7 Kxg7, with Qf8+ and Rf7# next) 35...Qe8 36. hxg6+! Kg8 (if 36...Kxg6, 37. Qh4 [threat: Qf4+ and mate soon] Kh7 38. R1f6 Rxf6 39 Qxf6 Qg8 40. Qf5+ Kh8 41. Rxg7+ Qxg7 42. Qxc2. Black, down a bishop, resigned several moves ago). NO GOOD.

(2) 34...Re8 - Rybka finds a forced mate. NO GOOD.

(3) ONLY CHOICE: <34...Qe8>

Then, <35. Qxe8 Rxe8 36. hxg6. Black's best is probably <36...Rxb2 37. Rc3> (nailing black's rook to 8th rank) <37...Rd2 38. Rf4>. Rybka is having a hard time finding a move for Black. It thinks <38...Bh8> is best (relieving the back rank threat) with white's evaluation at 1.02/19ply.

Continuing, after after <39. Kh3 Rde2 40. Rf7 R2e6.>, the evaluation swells to 1.25/20ply.

===
At this point, I played it out, re-evaluating after every move or so, to see if there really appears to be a white win at the end of the tunnel.

<41. Ra7 Bf6> (1.25/18ply) <42. Rxa6 Kg7> (1.27/18ply) <43. Rc6> (threat: Bc5)


click for larger view

Here seems to be a critical move for black. Rybka favors <43...h5> over 43...Re1:

<44. Ra7+ Kxg6> (1.28/18ply) <45. Rd7 Re1 46. Rdxd6> (1.34/18ply)

Black now tries a counter attack...

<46...Rh1+ 47. Kg3 h4+ 48. Kf2> (1.03/19ply) <48...Ree1 49. Rxf6 Kh5> (.98/20ply)

<50. Rh6+ Kg4 51. Rxh4! Kxh4 [not ...Rxh4 52. Kxe1 ] 52. Rh6+ Kg5 53. Rxh1 Rxh1> (.93/21ply)


click for larger view

Oh boy! K+B+3P vs. K+R+P!

<54. a6 Ra1 55. a7> (1.75/25ply) To my eye, it looks winning for white. Black's rook must guard against promotion and his king can't let the g-pawn get away. White's king can support the g-pawn push.

<55...Kf5 56. Ke3 Ra3+ 57. Kd2 Ke6 58. g4!]> (2.17/28ply) I played it on, and indeed white won (giving up the 2 flank pawns for the rook, leaving a trivial endgame win).

So, all this to say that if any doubts arise about 32. Rf7 (in the 31...Rc2 line), then 23. h4 may very well be a winning alternative. :-)

Nov-30-06  izimbra: Here's one possible way for white to win in the main Rybka (bungy) line:

31. Qg5 Rc3
32. Rf7 Ree2
33. Kh1 Re6
34. b4 Rc8
35. Kh2 Rce8
36. R1f2 h6
37. Qg4 Qxb5
38. Qf3 Qb5
39. Rxg7+ Kxg7
40. Qf7+ Kh8
41. Bd8 Rxd8
42. Qxe6 Qe8
43. Qxd5 Qg8
44. Qb7 Rf8
45. Rc2 1-0

See if there are improvements for black here.

Nov-30-06  Boomie: Here's a possible problem with RV's Rooks of Death line D2a. On move 38 black plays Qe4 instead of Qb5. If white exchanges queens, there is a R+B endgame which may not be winnable.

31...Rc2 32. Rf7 Ree2 33. Kh1 Rc8 34. Bc7 Rf8 35. Rxf8+ Bxf8 36. Qf6 Qe8 37. Bxd6 Bg7 38. Qg5 Qe4 39. Qd8+ Qe8 40. Qc7 Bxd4 41. Qb7 Bg7 42. Qxd5+ Kh8 43. b4 h6 44. Qb7 Qe4 45. Qxe4 Rxe4 46. b5 axb5 47. Rb1 Ra4 48. Rxb5 Bc3 49. Bc7 Kg8


click for larger view

Nov-30-06  Touch of Knight: <Boomie> Maybe 39.Rf4 is better?

A quick run with Fritz 10:

(20-ply) (1.35): 39.Rf4 Qe6 40.Be5 Re1+ 41.Kh2 Rxe5 42.dxe5 h6 43.Qd8+ Kh7 44.Qb6 Qxe5 45.g3 Qe2+ 46.Qf2 Qe6 47.b4 Kg8 48.Qf1 g5 49.Rf2

I am currently sliding forward in this line, and it looks even better.

Nov-30-06  Touch of Knight: I’ve found an improvement in my line above.

(21-ply) (3.27): 44.Qc7 Qxe5 45.Qxe5 Bxe5 46.g3 Kg7 47.Rb4 d4 48.Rb7+ Kf6 49.Kg2 d3 50.Kf3 Bd4 51.Rb6+ Kf7 52.Rxa6 d2 53.Ke2 Bxb2 54.Kxd2

White wins.

Nov-30-06  Boomie: <Touch of Knight> Black is indeed in trouble. 42...h5 puts up more resistance. If 43. Qd8+ Kh2 44. Qc7, black has Kh6 45. g3 Bxe5 46. Qb6 Qc8 and black may be able to hold.
Nov-30-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> No point waiting - we might as well start an orderly transition.

Stage One involves <madhair> taking the 31.Qg5 Re6 lines, and <mack> taking 31.Qg5 Re2.

Everything else - ...Rc2 et al - stays here for now.

And User: Stevens becomes a repository for minor moves like 31.h4, 31.Qf4 and 31.Rf7, previously covered by <mack> & <madhair>.

OK with you, compadre?

Nov-30-06  Boomie: <Touch of Knight> In my previous line, 46. Qf7 is better for white.
Nov-30-06  Touch of Knight: <Boomie><42...h5 puts up more resistance>

42...h5 43.Rf6 Bxf6 44.Qxg6+ and black is lost

Nov-30-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Forum Update Notice **

As of 11/30/06, 2000 EST, this forum is for discussion of proposed moves for BLACK after our expected 31. Qg5. The proposed moves will be any besides Rook moves down the e-file, ie, Re2, Re4, and Re6. All other Black moves will be discussed here, in particular Rc2. Perhaps Ra8 will get some attention.

Nov-30-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** This forum is for discussion of 31. Qg5 and any moves for Black besides Re2, Re4, and Re6 **

Proposed move 31. Qg5 would lead to this position:


click for larger view

Dec-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> jepflast is going to carry on looking at endings, but has offered his forum if we need it for a post-Qg5 line. Is there any particular move you reckon should go there (or elsewhere), or are you happy with 31...Rc2 (plus others like 31...Ra8, 31...Rb8, non-rook-moves, etc)?

Another point: should the 'pure' rooks-of-death line, 31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Re2 (where the black rook moves can come in either order), be considered separately from everything else?

I'll leave the current 3-forum setup for the time being.

Dec-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: His forum for endings make sense.

I expect 31...Rc2, but no way will he play 32...Re2. I think most the World Team will be caught unawares. But, I could be 100% wrong.

Dec-01-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Hmmm. I need to review RV's 32. Rce2 line, which is what I thought would happen after 31. Rc2. It's not as good for Black as I thought.
Dec-02-06  Karpova: Once i had a look at black's options here but didn't find anything satisfying so i highly doubt that he will play it. 32.Rf7 Re6 has already been invetsigated thoroughly, i think. One of the main problems is that black weakens his back rank without threatening anything.
Dec-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <OhioChessFan> This was was posted on the main page earlier (p. 830 and 831):

"31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Rce2 33.Rxg7+ Kxg7 34.Qf6+ Kg8 35.Qf7+ Kh8 36.Bd8 Rxd8 37.Qf6+ Kg8 38.Qxd8 Re8 39.Qf6 Qd7 (26-ply): (1.00) 40.b4 and 40.Rf3"

and

"31.Qg5 Rc2 32.Rf7 Rce2 33.Rxg7+ Kxg7 34.Qf6+ Kg8 35.Qf7+ Kh8 36.Bd8 Rxd8 37.Qf6+ Kg8 38.Qxd8 Re8 39.Qf6 Qd7 40.b4 (27-ply): (1.11) 40...Qe7 41.Qf3 Qe6 42.Qc3, (1.13) 40...Qc7 41.Qf3 Kg7 42.Qxd5,

which makes one think that 40.Qf3 may be best, as <whiteshark>'s engines suggest."

I later tried <whiteshark>'s 40.Qf3, which scored about 0.90.

There are also good alternatives to the flashy 33.Rxg7+: 33.Rc7 (21-ply about 0.55-0.60) and 33.Ra8

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