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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
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OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 299 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jul-12-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ****Welcome to the Dortmund Moves Prediction Contest**** This contest involves picking a game result (1-0 1/2 or 0-1) and the number of moves in the game. As an example, if in a first round game you think Karjakin with White will defeat Kramnik in 40 moves, your entry would say:

Karjakin-Kramnik 1-0 40

While it is a bit more complicated than the game prediction contest hosted by <YouRang> it isn't <that> much more complicated. I think my profile as written by <chessmoron> does a pretty good job explaining how things work.

A few odds and ends. I think <chessmoron> does this by hand and mistakes occasionally happen. Let him know, on this forum. Quickly. It really isn't as painful to miss a round as it is in <YouRang> contest. The winners often have rounds they don't score a single point. So don't fret if you miss a round. Pay attention to the matchups and to the tournament strategy. For example, if a player has an insurmountable lead in the last round, you just might expect a very short draw. In general, it's better to be under the number of moves than over because of the scoring system, so keep that in mind. There are a number of other nuances that will occur to you as the tournament progresses.

If you haven't done so, I encourage you to visit www.chessgames.com/~yourang and enter his games prediction contest.

Jul-12-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <chessmoron> are you okay with multiple rounds being picked? I can never remember if that's a problem. If it is, I'll try to repost the entries before each round on behalf of the entrants' previously made picks. And per the rules in my profile, if participant 2 scored 10 points, would participant 3 still score 7?
Jul-12-12  chessmoron: Not a problem.
Jul-12-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Fridman - Gustafsson 1/2 37
Leko - Ponomariov 1/2 22
Caruana - Naiditsch 1-0 43
Meier - Bartel 1/2 29
Karjakin - Kramnik 1/2 36
Jul-12-12  Travis Bickle: <OhioChessFan> Thanks Elvis for inviting me to your contest but I think I'd be lost in a hurry. Maybe next time pal.
Jul-12-12  bubuli55: == Round 1 : Fri Jul 13 Fridman - Gustafsson 1/2-1/2 30 Leko - Ponomariov 1/2-1/2 40
Caruana - Naiditsch 1/2-1/2 40
Meier - Bartel 1/2-1/2 45
Karjakin - Kramnik 1/2-1/2 30

== Round 2 : Sat Jul 14
Gustafsson - Kramnik 0-1 45
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 45
Naiditsch - Meier 0-1 45
Ponomariov - Caruana 0-1 45
Fridman - Leko 0-1 45

== Round 3 : Sun Jul 15
Leko - Gustafsson 1-0 45
Caruana - Fridman 1-0 45
Meier - Ponomariov 1/2 45
Karjakin - Naiditsch 1-0 40 
Kramnik - Bartel 1-0 40

== Round 4 : Mon Jul 16
Gustafsson - Bartel 1/2-1/2 30
Naiditsch - Kramnik 0-1 45
Ponomariov - Karjakin 1/2-1/2 35
Fridman - Meier 1/2-1/2 45
Leko - Caruana 1/2-1/2 45

== Round 5 : Tue Jul 17
Caruana - Gustafsson 1-0 40
Meier - Leko 1/2-1/2 40
Karjakin - Fridman 1-0 45
Kramnik - Ponomariov 1/2-1/2 35
Bartel - Naiditsch 1/2-1/2 35

== Round 6 : Thu Jul 19
Gustafsson - Naiditsch 1/2-1/2 35
Ponomariov - Bartel 1-0 45
Fridman - Kramnik 0-1 45
Leko - Karjakin 0-1 45
Caruana - Meier 1/2-1/2 35

== Round 7 : Fri Jul 20
Meier - Gustafsson 1-0 50
Karjakin - Caruana 1/2-1/2 45
Kramnik - Leko 1-0 35
Bartel - Fridman 1/2-1/2 35
Naiditsch - Ponomariov 0-1 40

== Round 8 : Sat Jul 21
Gustafsson - Ponomariov 0-1 45
Fridman - Naiditsch 1/2-1/2 30
Leko - Bartel 1/2-1/2 30
Caruana - Kramnik 1/2-1/2 30
Meier - Karjakin 1/2-1/2 35

== Round 9 : Sun Jul 22
Karjakin - Gustafsson 1/2-1/2 30
Kramnik - Meier1/2-1/2 30
Bartel - Caruana 1/2-1/2 30
Naiditsch - Leko 1/2-1/2 30
Ponomariov - Fridman 1/2-1/2 30

good luck! :)

Jul-13-12  twinlark: <Ohio>

I'm not sure you're using current ratings.

Jul-13-12  WinKing: == Round 2 : Sat Jul 14
Gustafsson - Kramnik 0-1 35
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 43
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2 32
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 46
Fridman - Leko 0-1 49
Jul-13-12  twinlark: Round 2

Gustafsson - Kramnik 1/2 49
Bartel - Karjakin 1/2 55
Naiditsch - Meier 0-1 41
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 35
Fridman - Leko 1/2 60

Jul-13-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: There was one decisive game in Round 1. Meier beat Bartel in 39 moves.

The rest of the games were draws:
Fridman-Gustafsson 35 moves
Leko-Ponomariov 38 moves
Caruana-Naiditsch 60 moves
Karjakin-Kramnik 32 moves

Eight rounds to go.

Jul-13-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <All>, our Commissioner <chessmoron> is somewhere in a secret location in China, methinks, and operates on a different timeframe than most of us. He'll be around sometime to give us the first round update.

<twinlark> the ELO's I had were a little out of date so I deleted that post.

Jul-13-12  chessmoron: ♔ Tata 2012: <Round 1> Results ♔

<Caruana-Naiditsch, 1/2-1/2 in 60 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['twinlark', '1/2-1/2', '41']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '40']]
3rd Under, 5 points: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '38']]
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Fridman-Gustafsson, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['twinlrk', '1/2-1/2', '32']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '30'], ['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['Ragh', '1/2-1/2', '27']]
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['PinnedPiece', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

===

<Karjakin-Kramnik, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['PinnedPiece', '1/2-1/2', '31']]

2nd Under, 6 points: [['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '25']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['SloVice', '1/2-1/2', '33']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

===

<Leko-Ponomariov, 1/2-1/2 in 38 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '37']]
2nd Under, 6 points: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '36']]
3rd Under, 5 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['SloVice', '1/2-1/2', '39']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

===

<Meier-Bartel, 1-0 in 39 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['SloVice', '1-0', '39']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['lostemperor', '1-0', '44']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['PinnedPiece', '1-0', '45']]

Jul-13-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: == Round 2 : Sat Jul 14
Gustafsson - Kramnik 1/2-1/2 35
Bartel - Karjakin 1/2-1/2 35
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2-1/2 25
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2-1/2 30
Fridman - Leko 1/2-1/2 35
Jul-13-12  chessmoron: Round 1 Summary:

Perfect # moves predictions for this round goes to:

<twinlark> and <SloVice>

Highest scores in the Bonus Ranker: 19 points <bubuli55>

Results:

Moves Ranker - Through <Round 1>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

17, twinlark, 0, 1, 1
10, SloVice, 0, 0, 1
7, Robin01, 0, 1, 0
7, PinnedPiece, 0, 1, 0
0, bubuli55, 0, 0, 0
0, chessmoron, 0, 0, 0
0, lostemperor, 0, 0, 0
0, OhioChessFan, 0, 0, 0
0, Penguincw, 0, 0, 0
0, Ragh, 0, 0, 0
0, twinlark, 0, 0, 0
0, WinKing, 0, 0, 0
0, wordfunph, 0, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 1>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

19, bubuli55, 1, 0, 0, 3
11, Penguincw, 0, 0, 1, 1
7, lostemperor, 0, 1, 1, 0
7, WinKing, 1, 0, 0, 1
6, Robin01, 1, 0, 1, 0
5, Ragh, 0, 0, 1, 0
4, SloVice, 0, 2, 0, 0
3, PinnedPiece, 1, 1, 0, 0
0, chessmoron, 0, 0, 0, 0
0, OhioChessFan, 0, 0, 0, 0
0, wordfunph, 0, 0, 0, 0

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 1>

Score, UserID

19, bubuli55
17, twinlark
14, SloVice
13, Robin01
11, Penguincw
10, PinnedPiece
7, lostemperor
7, WinKing
5, Ragh
0, chessmoron
0, OhioChessFan
0, wordfunph
===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 1>

Score,UserID

2, twinlark
1, SloVice
1, Robin01
1, PinnedPiece
0, bubuli55
0, chessmoron
0, lostemperor
0, OhioChessFan
0, Penguincw
0, Ragh
0, twinlark
0, WinKing
0, wordfunph

Jul-13-12  Golden Executive: Round 2 : Sat Jul 14

Gustafsson - Kramnik 1/2 36
Bartel - Karjakin 1/2 36
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2 35
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 35
Fridman - Leko 1/2 35

Jul-13-12  wordfunph: Round 2 : Sat Jul 14

Gustafsson - Kramnik 0-1 45
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 45
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2 32
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 32
Fridman - Leko 1/2 32

Jul-14-12  chessmoron: Gustafsson - Kramnik 1/2 35
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 41
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2 45
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 38
Fridman - Leko 1/2 33
Jul-14-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Gustafsson - Kramnik 0-1 41
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 50
Naiditsch - Meier 1/2 28
Ponomariov - Caruana 1/2 37
Fridman - Leko 1/2 43
Jul-14-12  bubuli55: Things don't make sense sometimes. The weather, my schedule, and now the points after round 1 :) I'm reaching for the stars now :)

== Round 2 : Sat Jul 14
Gustafsson - Kramnik 0-1 45
Bartel - Karjakin 0-1 45
Naiditsch - Meier 0-1 45
Ponomariov - Caruana 0-1 45
Fridman - Leko 0-1 45

Jul-14-12
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Round 2 started some time ago.
Jul-14-12  Golden Executive:

<♔ Tata 2012: <Round 1> Results ♔

===

<Fridman-Gustafsson, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['twinlrk', '1/2-1/2', '32']]
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['Penguincw', '1/2-1/2', '30'], ['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['Ragh', '1/2-1/2', '27']]
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['PinnedPiece', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['WinKing', '1/2-1/2', '36']]

=== >

According to chessgames, the game was a draw in <35> moves:

D Fridman vs J Gustafsson, 2012

Jul-14-12  WinKing: == Round 3 : Sun Jul 15
Leko - Gustafsson 1-0 45
Caruana - Fridman 1-0 45
Meier - Ponomariov 1/2 45
Karjakin - Naiditsch 1-0 45
Kramnik - Bartel 1-0 45
Jul-14-12  bubuli55: == Round 3 : Sun Jul 15
Leko - Gustafsson 1-0 45
Caruana - Fridman 1-0 45
Meier - Ponomariov 1/2 45
Karjakin - Naiditsch 1-0 40 
Kramnik - Bartel 1-0 40

Good luck! :)

Jul-14-12  Golden Executive:

<♔ Tata 2012: <Round 1> Results ♔

<Karjakin-Kramnik, 1/2-1/2 in 32 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['PinnedPiece', '1/2-1/2', '31']]

2nd Under, 6 points: [['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '30']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['lostemperor', '1/2-1/2', '25']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['SloVice', '1/2-1/2', '33']]
3rd Over, 1 point1: [['Robin01', '1/2-1/2', '35']]

=== >

<Twinlark> predicted a draw in <26> moves

Jul-14-12  wordfunph: Round 3 : Sun Jul 15

Leko - Gustafsson 1-0 42
Caruana - Fridman 1-0 42
Meier - Ponomariov 1/2 33
Karjakin - Naiditsch 1/2 33
Kramnik - Bartel 1-0 42

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