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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
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Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49344 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 33 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Dec-06-06  Artar1: OhioChessFan:

I am available for extra duty.

Dec-07-06  jepflast: Summary of 32...Qc4: White has a very forcing line which appears to be a won ending. Black's only chance to avoid it is on move 35, but all his alternatives lead to even easier endings for White. The line will be:

32...Qc4
33. Bf6 Bxf6 34. Rxf6 Qxd4 35. Rxd6 Qe5 36. Qxe5 Rxe5 37. Rxa6 and the ending can be played several ways, but here is one: 37...d4 38. Ra7 Rb5 39. Rff7 Rxa5 40. Rg7 Kf8 41. Raf7 Ke8 42. Rb7 Rf5 43. Rge7 Kf8 44. Rxh7 Kg8 45. Rhg7 Kf8 46. Rgd7 Rf4 47. b4 Ke8 48. Re7 Kf8 49. Rh7 Kg8 50. Rhd7 Kf8 51. b5 Re8 52. b6 Rf6 53. Rxd4 g5 54. Rdd7 Rg6 55. Kg3 Rf6 56. Rh7 Kg8 57. Rbg7 Kf8 58. b7 Rb6 59. Rc7 Kg8 60. Rhg7 Kh8 61. Rge7 Rb3 62. Kg4 Rb4 63. Kh5 Rxe7 64. Rxe7 Kg8 65. Re8 Kf7 66. b8=Q Rxb8 67. Rxb8

The strategy of occupying the 7th rank works against just about any 37th move by Black. If he tries to prevent that, we can still win with our more active rooks e.g. 37...Re7 38. Rf4
Rd8 39. Rd4 Kf7 40. b4 Re6 41. Rf4 Ke7 42. Ra7 Kd6 43. Rxh7 with a decisive advantage.

Dec-07-06  themadhair: <OhioChessFan> Can't gaurentee being about during the weekend but should be about for the weekends. I am popping in everytime I get the chance though and my forum is always available - I give permission to use it in advance for any purpose related to this challenge.

Okay onto that summary that I probably won't be about to see posted: Start-
Why play Rc2? After moving the e rook it seems wrong if not outright idiocy to move the e rook again. So Rc2 must be his intended move then? Right? Things are not so simple in chess.

The strongest drawing plan that I see for black in this position is to play his queen to e8 and Re6. The order of those moves is somewhat optional but somehow neccessary. So how does Rc2 fit into this picture? Well it doesn't. It seems to be a non threatening move that worsens the black position. In all the analysis done so far black is struggling to make the draw. If black does have a draw in the Rc2 lines then he probably has it in other lines too. Rc2 just seems to offer less resistance. -End

Dec-07-06  Stevens: hi <ohio>. no, it doesn't matter to me if the forum is unused for a round or two. with regards my availability, the forum is open for use for the remainder of the game whenever it is needed. as far as my actual participation, i'm afraid it will be virtually nill, unless there is a crisis in which case you can give me a shout anytime. hope that answers your queries!
Dec-07-06  monad: Hiya Ohio,

Top of the morning to you!

Wake up to a yet another query:

Is there a place where reachable pre-endgame positions are or could be posted?

So we can all judge which position it would be best to proceed from?

I am particularly concerned with our upcoming choice between THREE feasible Rook moves: R1f2 - R1f3 (my baby) -R1f4

Everyone working on them thinks theirs is the winning line par exellence. One way to judge would be to FEN-wise compare the endgame positions.

Something like this:

I have a split semi-ending for the least attractive line in my R1f3 road. White to move in all cases.

5: our - game, 34.R1f2 Rc2 05-12-2006


click for larger view

Is this winnable? Eval 2.79 Junior 10

5: our - game, 34.R1f2 Rc2 05-12- 2006


click for larger view

or is this better? Eval 2.28

These FEN's might need main page exposure as well, because we need everyone's input, not just from the endgame specialists.

I suppose these FENs will require verification from an independant body.

What do you reckon?

Dec-07-06  Artar1: I am still working on the compilation of moves that respond to 32...Re6. I have been working on that project for three hours, and I have another four hours to go before I am finished.
Dec-08-06  jepflast: <Ohio>

Here's a short summary of White's possible replies to each Black 32nd move.

***32...Re6***
33. Bf6 (good)
33. R1f2 (good)
33. b4 (interesting)
33. Rf7 (interesting)
33. R3f2 (possible)
33. Qg4 (dubious)
33. b3 (dubious)

***32...Rc2***
33. Rf7 (good)
33. Bc7 (interesting)
33. Bf6 (possible) (33...Ree2 34. Rg3 Rf2 35. Rxf2 Rxf2 36. Bxg7 Kxg7 37. Qe7 Rf7 38. Qxd6 Qxa5) 33. Kh1 (dubious)
33. Be7 (bad--no forum) (33...Re6 34. Rf8 Bxf8 35. Rxf8 Kg7 36. Bxd6 h6 37. Qf4 Rxg2 38. Kxg2 =)

***32...Re2***
33. Rf7 (good) (33...Re6)
33. Be7 (possible)
33. Bf6 (possible) (33...Ree2 34. Rg3 Rf2 35. Rxf2 Rxf2 36. Bxg7 Kxg7 37. Qe7 Rf7 38. Qxd6 Qxa5) 33. R1f2 (dubious) (33...Rxf2 34. Rxf2)

***32...Qc4***
33. Bf6 (good) (33...Bxf6)
33. Rf7 (good) (33...Re6 34. R1f4)
33. Rc3 (bad--no forum) (33...Qxf1 34. Rxc8 Re8 35. Qxd5 Qf7 36. Qxf7 Kxf7)

Dec-08-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hi, Ohio
It's Friday, I think, and I said I'd be back, and I ain't. Despite a few flighty posts yesterday and various midnight peeks at the game (I couldn't stay away) I'm still pretty busy here in RL and will stay that way until around movetime.

So could you maybe, possibly, please do the organising on today's round of forums when we get GMAN's deferred move? You do it better, for starters - they listen to you - and you must have been set for it yesterday anyhow.

I can phase back in after that if you like. Thanks, your Kingship, 'preciate it.

Dec-08-06  themadhair: Volunteering for 33.Bf6.
Dec-08-06  jepflast: I guess I should take R1f2.
Dec-08-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Thanks to <madhair> and <jetblast>. Any other takers? I think the b pawn moves are always a possibility. They haven't gotten much notice in voting, but the ideas will always be there when the time comes.
Dec-08-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Marker Diagram **

Black has played 32...Re6 to reach this position (White to play):


click for larger view

Dec-08-06  Artar1: <OhioChessFan, themadhair, jepflast> As the analysis comes in on the forums, I will roll in the new work into the existing branching analysis, which I assembled from the work done by others. In that way we will have a running analysis of where we have been and where we are going. It may make future decisions easier for us because all of the data will be in one place. Before I begin, however, I will need to check every move in the current compendium to make sure there are no broken links, or code, and then I will recompile. I will repost the new material on my forum for anyone to access.
Dec-09-06  monad: Hiya Ohio,

It seems I was upset by an unfortunate juxtaposition obviously. Thanks for the explanation.

32.Bd8 Re6
33.Bf6 Bxf6
34.Rxf6 Rxf6
35.Qxf6 Qd7
<36.Qf3>
is the line I am looking into on my forum at the moment. If we ever needed an extension, now it would be most helpful.

Dec-09-06  themadhair: <OhioChessFan> <Madhair, what do you think of having a different forum for 33..Bxf6 and 33...Rf8? We have to decide on this quick, so let me know on my forum ASAP> You're the boss. If you want to split a forum then do so. You don't need my permission - I would say you have the leeway to make such a call when communication may be slow. Just a post a message on my forum and I'll make the necessary chagnes when I get logged in.
Dec-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Sorry about that extension - I was exhausted. I guess you were too. Anyhow, I'm back now, and I can start posting forum reminders etc once I straighten out my own profile. The Lark-with-the-mostest is also lurking about someplace. Must try to get him working again...

Some lessons I think I've learned. Your practice of making appeals etc on the main page is obviously better. I used to leave notes on people's forums, then wait forever for replies - not realising that not everyone actually checked their forums every day. One thing I've learned is how various are the ways people use this site - even simple navigation etc.

Those regular main-page posts also help to keep everyone involved. I was a bit too aloof with my 'forums will be announced later' kinda things. The whole us/them perception is tricky territory - there really isn't an 'us', but you can't tell 'them' that.

One definite idea: whenever we use a forum with a non-active host - like <stevens>'s one - we could also have a non-premium member looking after it. They can do everything except deletions, and that's rarely necessary. This might also help to involve certain non-prem people more closely.

It's like life, really. Some folk are just waiting to take offence, others couldn't care less. Take ten, your majesty, and I'll see you at the coalface...

Dec-09-06  twinlark: <Ohio> Well done mate, which I can't imagine you wouldn't have known. Dom's also appreciative as he dom well should be.

The first couple of months of this project was the most demanding project I've ever engaged in, what with day jobs, kids, and time zones, not to mention the daily question of whether the whole thing was damned well going to work. You know it's not empty flattery when I say your consistent support during that time was incredibly valuable in keeping the project alive.

It is such a relief to leave something like this in capable hands so as to be able to take a spell. It takes the pressure off and lets a dog, or an eye or a dead rock star catch up on some beauty sleep, the efficacy of which is of course not to be misunderrepresented.

Your innovations and improvements are great and on this, your first spell (heh heh), you've left the place healthier than you started...if we don't win, GMAN will only survive by the hair of his chinny chin chin.

Missed yer insults. I didn't see any pies flying at me when I stuck my head out of the kennel the last couple of days.

Dec-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> It is done, and you're free again. Thanks for everything.

I also asked for a debate on future forum direction etc - I must be a glutton for punishment.

Dec-09-06  YouRang: Good job <Ohio>. I think that the organizational work that you and <Dom> and <TwinLark> have done in this game have a lot to do with why the favorable position that we now have in this game.

When you go back to the early posts and see a bickering mob, and compare it to the organized (and not-so-bickering) structures of thought that we have today, you can see how your efforts have paid off.

Dec-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> Unlike that bird-dog and me, you've been going non-stop since this thing started - so you deserve a break. Then again, wicked grin, if you feel like hosting a forum again sometime, let me know. But I wouldn't even suggest it for a coupla days.

Dom grateful.

Dec-10-06  YouRang: Er, I just read the ghastly sentence I wrote earlier: "have done in this game have a lot to do with why the favorable position that we now have in this game."

Ack. I meant: "have done in this game have a lot to do with why we now have a favorable position in this game."

Dang brain rot...

Dec-10-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Turn the second "have" to "has" and I think we're there.
Dec-11-06  monad: Hiya Ohio,

Thanks for your message.

I am having trouble with one of my servers at the moment, and I shall have to choose a new one before I can continue uploading webpages.

I will try and duplicate what I was going to write there on my bio instead, as soon as I can spare some time.

No idea what is going on at the main page: I'm not setting foot in the place for while ;-) Arguments make me ill. But judging from more than two thousand visits over the past three weeks alone, I feel my pages were filling a need. So to Hull with the moaners.

I hope you are resting up a little after your efforts.

Dec-11-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: Hey, Ohio
When Arno played ...Rf8 I was more surprised than after anything else he's done. Then I saw that both RV and Artar1 had SEVEN options for us on move 36, after the forced exchanges.

Cue heart attack while I try to figure out where to find 7 forums. Then I had another look and saw that most of them aren't so hot - the choices just reflect the strength of our position.

So jep and madhair have got the main two, 36.b4 and 36.Qd8 - and I've set up all the others in <stevens> forum.

If you have the time, can you help to keep an eye on them? Nothing at all may happen. Or one of them could jump out of the pack when I'm not looking.

I'll watch out myself, and I've also asked twinlark to keep an eye on 'em... but you know how it is...

Dec-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ohio> I've just posted a detailed ENDGAME PLAN on my forum. Take a look and tell me what you think.

If it sounds familiar, it's because I lifted some of your ideas.

You <might> even be interested in running it yourself.

I'm just going to leave it on my forum for now, but I could also post it on the main page later.

Meanwhile, feedback would be nice.

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