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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-23-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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***Hall of Fame***
chessmoron chessforum

<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
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rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

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   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49377 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-23-25 M Fox vs H Ridout, 1951 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Very good pun. Black rode out to victory. White missed a couple chances to open the position with f5.
 
   Nov-23-25 Kibitzer's Café (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: A flock of larks is an exaltation.
 
   Nov-22-25 Miles vs Andersson, 1980
 
OhioChessFan: Offbeat opening, I didn't have a clue what was going on. Miles crushed the h file.
 
   Nov-22-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: Four best harmony songs I know: Blackbyrds-Walking in Rhythm https://youtu.be/Vxg-a8a2UuY?si=cph... Beach Boys-Sloop John B https://youtu.be/nSAoEf1Ib58?si=nS6... Eagles-Seven Bridges Road https://youtu.be/73x16ne6auo?si=NVC... Earth Wind and Fire-September ...
 
   Nov-21-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Best singer in a band is Freddie Mercury. Best woman singer in a band is Grace Slick. Best singer ever is Sam Cooke. Best female ever is Aretha Franklin. Quick takes on some others mentioned: Dylan is painfully bad. Sinatra is off key 75% of the time. Jim Croce had the best ...
 
   Nov-21-25 S J Stevens vs Gracie, 1878
 
OhioChessFan: White to make his 18th move would be a decent Tuesday puzzle.
 
   Nov-21-25 A Niyibizi vs Cheda, 2014 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Amusing pun. Patience paid off.
 
   Nov-19-25 W Hug vs Korchnoi, 1978 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: 18. Ne4 opened up the middle to Black's Queen and LSB. 18. Nb1 was fine.
 
   Nov-18-25 S P Sethuraman vs C Anto, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: <redundant> I never noticed that. I had 5 semesters of college German so I have a basic knowledge of the language. I guess the different languages of "time" in the same sentence render it acceptable. Monty Python just doesn't work for me. I like maybe 10% of their stuff.
 
   Nov-14-25 McShane vs I Samunenkov, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Nice analysis from Mikhail Golubev https://www.chess.com/blog/MikhailG...
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 733 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-23-19  WinKing: Our picks for Rd.10 are posted in my forum.
Jan-23-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  Diademas: I don't think I take this to seriously, but sometimes I feel the forecasts are made by looking at other players. There is nothing legally wrong with that, but it might collide with the spirit of the competition.

Somehow I don't think this is coincidental.

<Carlsen - Anand 1-0 36 dmas

Carlsen - Anand 1-0 37 amw

Carlsen - Anand 1-0 38 ge >

Jan-23-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I'll give a serious response later <Diad>. I've addressed that point before. I do think in this case it's just coincidental.
Jan-23-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  Diademas: Not a big deal <OCF>

This is for fun. It is a human trait to get a head start. It was not made as an accusation toward certain users, more of an afterthought.

I have no chance of winning anything here, and that doesn't bother me a bit. But somehow I kind of like a level playing field.

Jan-23-19  bubuli55: Round 11

Radjabov - Carlsen 0-1 55
Giri - Shankland 1/2 27
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1-0 41
Kramnik - Van Foreest 0-1 33
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 27
Rapport - Ding 0-1 45
Anand - Duda 1-0 41

Jan-23-19  WinKing: Tomorrow is a rest day for the players in the Tata Steel Masters tournament. Play will resume on Friday, January 25th.
Jan-23-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  juan31: < ROUND 11>

Radjabov - Carlsen 0-1 44
Giri - Shankland 1-0 44
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 39
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 42
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 40
Rapport - Ding 0-1 45
Anand - Duda 1-0 41

Jan-23-19  juniper anole: Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 44
Giri - Shankland 0-1 50
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 32
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 38
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1-0 36
Rapport - Ding 1/2 42
Anand - Duda 1/2 40
Jan-23-19  chessmoron: ♔ Tata Steel 2019: <Round 10> Result ♔

<Carlsen-Anand, 1-0 in 76 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Golden Executive', '1-0', '38']]

2nd Under, 6 points: [['alfamikewhiskey', '1-0', '37']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['Diademas', '1-0', '36']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Ding-Mamedyarov, 1/2-1/2 in 46 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: [['DerDiemer', '1/2-1/2', '46'], ['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '46']]

Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: [['juan31', '1/2-1/2', '40']]

3rd Under, 5 points: [['alfamikewhiskey', '1/2-1/2', '37']]

Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['offramp', '1/2-1/2', '48']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['juniper anole', '1/2-1/2', '53']]

===

<Duda-Rapport, 0-1 in 41 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['juniper anole', '0-1', '30']]

2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Fedoseev-Giri, 0-1 in 41 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['chessmoron', '0-1', '42']]
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

===

<Shankland-Radjabov, 1/2-1/2 in 31 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: [['Count Wedgemore', '1/2-1/2', '25'], ['DerDiemer', '1/2-1/2', '25']]

2nd Under, 6 points: [['bubuli55', '1/2-1/2', '22']]

3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: []
2nd Over, 2 points: [['Diademas', '1/2-1/2', '32']]

3rd Over, 1 point1: [['wordfunph', '1/2-1/2', '33']]

==

<Van Foreest-Nepo, 1-0 in 60 moves.>--No one got it!

===

<Vidit-Kramnik, 1-0 in 29 moves.>

Exact, 10 points: []
Under, 7 points: []
2nd Under, 6 points: []
3rd Under, 5 points: []
Over, 3 points: [['bubuli55', '1-0', '32']]
2nd Over, 2 points: []
3rd Over, 1 point1: []

Jan-23-19  chessmoron: Round 10 Summary:

Perfect # moves predictions for this round goes to

<DerDiemer> and <wordfunph>

Highest scores in the Bonus Ranker: 11 points: <alfamikewhiskey>

Results:

Moves Ranker - Through <Round 10>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

85, Penguincw, 1, 6, 4
78, DerDiemer, 0, 4, 5
53, juan31, 4, 3, 2
37, bubuli55, 2, 3, 1
37, Count Wedgemore, 1, 2, 2
34, offramp, 1, 3, 1
34, OhioChessFan, 2, 4, 0
31, juniper anole, 0, 3, 1
31, WinKing, 0, 3, 1
31, wordfunph, 0, 3, 1
30, chessmoron, 1, 1, 2
30, Golden Executive, 2, 2, 1
16, Diademas, 2, 0, 1
7, lostemperor, 0, 1, 0
3, alfamikewhiskey, 1, 0, 0

===

Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 10>

Score, UserID, 3-Over, 2-Over, 3-Under, 2-Under

70, lostemperor, 5, 4, 3, 7
69, Diademas, 2, 3, 5, 6
63, Penguincw, 3, 5, 4, 5
62, Count Wedgemore, 6, 3, 4, 5
51, alfamikewhiskey, 5, 4, 4, 3
46, WinKing, 3, 3, 5, 2
42, bubuli55, 1, 6, 1, 4
37, juan31, 2, 1, 3, 3
35, DerDiemer, 5, 4, 2, 2
31, OhioChessFan, 4, 2, 1, 3
26, wordfunph, 3, 6, 1, 1
23, juniper anole, 2, 2, 1, 2
20, Golden Executive, 1, 4, 1, 1
15, offramp, 1, 4, 0, 1
11, chessmoron, 1, 2, 0, 1

===

Moves+Bonus Ranker - Through <Round 10>

Score, UserID

148, Penguincw
113, DerDiemer
99, Count Wedgemore
90, juan31
85, Diademas
79, bubuli55
77, WinKing
77, lostemperor
65, OhioChessFan
57, wordfunph
54, alfamikewhiskey
54, juniper anole
50, Golden Executive
49, offramp
41, chessmoron

===

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <Round 10>

Score,UserID

11, Penguincw
9, DerDiemer
9, juan31
6, bubuli55
6, OhioChessFan
5, Count Wedgemore
5, Golden Executive
5, offramp
4, chessmoron
4, juniper anole
4, WinKing
4, wordfunph
3, Diademas
1, alfamikewhiskey
1, lostemperor

Jan-24-19  DerDiemer: <Diademas: I don't think I take this to seriously, but sometimes I feel the forecasts are made by looking at other players. There is nothing legally wrong with that, but it might collide with the spirit of the competition. Somehow I don't think this is coincidental.
<Carlsen - Anand 1-0 36 dmas Carlsen - Anand 1-0 37 amw
Carlsen - Anand 1-0 38 ge >
>

The only way to sort out that problem is when they change the rules, like in the WCC where ALL THE PREDICTIONS (games and moves) was handed in before the start of round 1.

In such a case there will be no advantages for players at all.

Will see how the others feel about rule change, but don't think they will.

Jan-24-19  DerDiemer: <Diademas:
I have no chance of winning anything here, and that doesn't bother me a bit. But somehow I kind of like a level playing field>

You still got a very good chance in Bonus ranker <Diademas>, just play 'Half to Half' on the sides you choose :-)

Jan-24-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Round 10 Recap **

Our mad rush to the finish line of fame and fortune continues apace. <Penguincw> still leads 3 Rankers and <lostemperor> leads the other. A few contestants have moved to within shouting distance in the various Rankers. <DerDiemer> is close in Moves Ranker, <Diademas> is close in Bonus, and <DerD> and <juan31> are close in #1 Ranker.

In other news, <OhioChessFan> missed that round. Of course, there was rampant speculation why, ranging from him whining too much about Kramnik to notice the time, to paying a visit to the "Chess Club" and not wanting to leave, to whining about not getting any votes for Pun of the Year and sitting out a round in protest. In a wasted display of sportsmanship, <Winky> yelled across the playing hall in hopes of <OCF> being present and getting his picks in at the last minute.

In a spectacular display of strategy, <Diademas> cleverly downplayed his chances of winning anything in this contest, all the while sneaking behind <Penguin's> back and into the second place spot in Bonus Ranker. Meanwhile, <bubuli> continues his mad rush to get the highest negative score in ChessBookie history.

We're barreling on down the road to the finish line. Can <Pengo> hold on to the 3 Ranker leads that seemed so safe just a few days ago? Can he even dream of winning a Quadruple Crown? Will <DerDiemer> or <lostemperor> or <Diademas> or <juan31> dash the Quadruple Crown dreams? Who will be the next contestant to miss a round because they are at the "Chess Club"? What will <OCF> whine about next? Stay tuned for the answers to these and many other pertinent questions. 3 Rounds to go in our exciting contest.

Jan-24-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Diad: I don't think I take this to seriously, but sometimes I feel the forecasts are made by looking at other players. There is nothing legally wrong with that, but it might collide with the spirit of the competition.

Somehow I don't think this is coincidental. >

<Carlsen - Anand 1-0 36 dmas

Carlsen - Anand 1-0 37 amw

Carlsen - Anand 1-0 38 ge >

I'll address that in general by repeating my take on this from last year:

<Whereas the prediction contests.......I'll unload with every problem I have with them. Mostly in order of most annoying to least annoying:

1. Picking all decisive games, particularly Black wins, after you're eliminated in Standard and 1-2-3. I think it's unsporting, even if only for the last round. I think one reason I have so many bronze medals is that I don't do that and sort of pass people at the end who are using that strategy.

2. Picking all draws.

3. Using the open picks system to wait until the end of the prediction time to take that information of other people and let it influence your picks.

4. Picking different game results in the Moves Prediction and Games Prediction Contests.

I think the only one you can really enact a rule on is #2, and I guess the new rule does that pretty well. I would like a gentleman's agreement to not engage in #1. I am not sure people engage in #3, but there are times I think they do. It's hard to tell, but if this was my show, I'd make a statement to the effect that I don't approve of it. #4, not too big a deal, but I don't much care for it.

I know some of the contestants in Moves Prediction will be surprised that I don't like people using different results for the two contests. They'll appeal to the differing strategies, and I hear that. But again, these are two contests to predict the results of chess games, not to figure out a complex gambling system/strategy to assign to chess games along with every other gambling scenario you can find. At least, that's how I see it.>

OhioChessFan chessforum (kibitz #17472)

As for what you're asking specifically, no, I don't think that was anything but coincidence. I'll point out <amw> posted before you. It's when you see successive posts with that kind of numbers that you get suspicious. Has that happened in this contest? Welllllllll, I guess I can't say it's proven, but I'm sure it has. And I totally agree that is against the spirit of the competition. One person who has done that repeatedly here once had the gall to challenge me in the Games Prediction Contest for having done that. I spent a long time just shaking my head over it. I know exactly what you mean by not taking it seriously, but then bringing this up. I hesitated for a long time before making the post quoted above. It was odd to say "I don't care" and then say "I think this is wrong enough to say, even though I don't care." Anyway, I haven't seen one indication of that in the current contest, although I guess you've been suspicious before if you're bringing it up now, and I'd agree it has happened a great deal before. Okay, I'll try to quit taking this so seriously.

Jan-24-19  Count Wedgemore: No "Chess Club" for me. I'm too old for that stuff :)
Jan-24-19  Count Wedgemore: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 28
Giri - Shankland 1/2 36
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 33
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 40
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1-0 40
Rapport - Ding 1/2 27
Anand - Duda 1/2 35

Jan-24-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I had gone to play trivia last night, got home, realized I hadn't made my picks, got online, typed up my kibitz, and didn't send it. I normally copy those picks and paste them in <GE's> forum and backspace over the moves, so missing this one led inevitably to missing that one. In this contest, I would have only scored 2 points, on the Fedoseev-Giri game, where I had Fedoseev-Giri 0-1 45, so no big loss. Cost me big in the Games Prediction Contest, where I had the 3 draws and the Black win, for 4 points in Standard and 6 in 1-2-3. That'd put me second in 1-2-3. Alas.
Jan-24-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Correction to the above, if anyone cares, I had the 2 draws, Carlsen and Giri. 4 points in Standard, 7 in 1-2-3.
Jan-24-19  WinKing: Round 11

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 40
Giri - Shankland 1/2 40
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 40
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 40
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 31
Rapport - Ding 1/2 40
Anand - Duda 1/2 40

Jan-24-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 0-1 35
Giri - Shankland 1/2-1/2 31
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2-1/2 40
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1/2-1/2 40
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2-1/2 33
Rapport - Ding 1/2-1/2 42
Anand - Duda 1/2-1/2 40

Jan-24-19  wordfunph: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 46
Giri - Shankland 1/2 46
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 46
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 46
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 46
Rapport - Ding 1/2 46
Anand - Duda 1/2 46

Jan-25-19  Golden Executive: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 38
Giri - Shankland 1/2 33
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1-0 40
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 39
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 45
Rapport - Ding 0-1 43
Anand - Duda 1/2 39

Jan-25-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 42
Giri - Shankland 1-0 44
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 46
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1-0 44
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1-0 46
Rapport - Ding 1/2 42
Anand - Duda 1-0 44

Jan-25-19
Premium Chessgames Member
  offramp:
Round 11:
Radjabov - Carlsen 0-1 63
Giri - Shankland 1-0 45
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 38
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1/2 32
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 60
Rapport - Ding 1/2 40
Anand - Duda 1/2 36
Jan-25-19  alfamikewhiskey: Round 11:

Radjabov - Carlsen 1/2 42
Giri - Shankland 1/2 36
Nepomniachtchi - Fedoseev 1/2 34
Kramnik - Van Foreest 1/2 34
Mamedyarov - Vidit 1/2 36
Rapport - Ding 1/2 36
Anand - Duda 1/2 32

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