< (6) Penguincw 3,725
(7) moulicules 3,653
(8) Karposian 3,130 >

Both you and I made money, but I won more than twice as much as you did.

< When you had a bad day, on the other hand, I think you lost 450-500 cbs or something. It was impressive that you were able to strike back immediately, though. I wonder what you betted on that day..but I guess you don't want to tell me (which is fair, of course). >

Yes, I did. To be honest, I don't remember what I bet on, but I do remember that I wasn't hesitant to strike back immediately, something I wouldn't have done in the past.

< I can promise you this: tomorrow I'll be back up, at least to the 3100+ range (and hopefully back at 7th or 8th place, at least.) >

Okay, I'll give you credit for that.

< < In fact, both of us are. There are some 110+ players right now, and we are both in the Top Ten, which makes us better players than >90% of the players here..we are good at this! >

Let's just say, it's a good start. I'll have to see what happens in LCC.

< L E A D E R B O A R D
updated Fri Nov 27, 16:42
(5) Penguincw 4,202
(6) Forrest Gimp 3,817
(7) Karposian 3,673 >

Been over a week, and I'm still ahead. Since Nov/19, I've gained a whopping 983 cbs while you gained a meager 651 cbs, as I expand my lead by 332 cbs from 197 to 529.

I cannot wait for the LCC to start. This last month of the leg is going to be very exciting!

By the way, earlier you wrote this:

<I will warn you though. 4 years ago at LCC, I managed to triple my net worth by the end of the tournament.>

Well, that doesn't say much, if anything. I mean, if you went from, say, 1200 cbs to 3600 cbs it's not really that impressive (although pretty good, of course), is it? Going from 4000 cbs to 8000 cbs would be a bit more impressive even if that's just doubling your net worth.

Thanks. I'm sure many more are to come.

As for <syd>, I think he also managed to gain a pile of cash as well.

< Well, that doesn't say much, if anything. I mean, if you went from, say, 1200 cbs to 3600 cbs it's not really that impressive (although pretty good, of course), is it? Going from 4000 cbs to 8000 cbs would be a bit more impressive even if that's just doubling your net worth. >

Ah yes, biased statements. And yes, I did go from ~1200-3600. However, I don't even recall being on the leaderboard <once> during that leg.

<L E A D E R B O A R D
updated Sat Nov 28, 08:01
(5) Penguincw 4,301
(6) Karposian 4,040>

Together again on the leaderboard, my dear enemy (actually you're more of a "frenemy", i.e. friend+enemy) :)

Let's do a new calculation of winnings since Nov19th, hmm..let's see:

<Penguincw> +1082 cbs, <Karposian> +1018 cbs

That is pretty close!

< L E A D E R B O A R D
updated Sat Nov 28, 16:39

(5) Penguincw 4,352
(6) Karposian 4,040 >

< (actually you're more of a "frenemy", i.e. friend+enemy) :) >

Hehe, "frenemy". This term though. However, I've noticed there are 2 types of "frenemies": people that are your friends, but you have a strong rivalry for or enemies disguised as your friend.

It can hard to figure out which was.

< I feel that I have the momentum going into the LCC, look out :) >

♔ ANNOUNCEMENT ♔
In < Golden Executive forum > <Game Prediction Contest> for the <London Chess Classic 2015> tournament. Round 1 will be played next Friday December 4 16:00 GMT(UTC +0:00).

Line-up:
Carlsen, Caruana, Nakamura, Anand, Topalov, Grischuk, Giri, Aronian, Vachier-Lagrave, Adams.

Rounds: 9

The full pairings are released; the game prediction contest is open right now.

Oh, I'm not forgetting that, that's for sure. I'm planning to finally move ahead of you in the MPC Hall of Fame!

Oh, I'm not forgetting that, that's for sure. >

Well, no guarantees all 3 are running. :)

< I'm planning to finally move ahead of you in the MPC Hall of Fame! >

I lost track of how many times you said that.

< And now <juan31> has just announced that there will be a GPC. >

Yes, thanks <juan>. :)

< Of course, I'm already ahead of you in the GPC Hall of Fame..sorry about that :) >

No apologies needed. Especially considering I'm ahead of you in <le>'s contest, <cm>'s contest, and all 3 contest overall.

On top of that, here's my biggest accomplishment in each contest:

<GE>'s: < Only user to ever win a Betting title crown in the Games Prediction Contest, and defend it the very next year, same tournament (Tata Steel 2014 & 2015). >

<cm>'s: < Only user to ever win a quadruple crown (London Chess Classic 2011) in the Moves Prediction Contest. >

<le>'s: < 6th user to win a triple crown. >

<Overall>: < First user to ever win a gold medal in each of the 3 contests from the same tournament (Tata Steel 2015). >

Some of these notable achievements are also records and milestones. Anyone can win a medal, but setting a record or hitting a milestone is another thing.

Well, to begin with, let's just get one thing straight:

I am WAY better than you in these contests (not including the TPC where for some reason I always struggle making good predictions).

In fact, I am better than almost everybody. I only started participating in these contests in 2013, while many of you have been playing it for years and years..

So, in a very short time I have been racing up the charts in the HOF (again, not including the TPC).

Don't just take my word for it. Take a look at this interesting post made by <Golden Executive> after Bilbao regarding the Game Prediction Contest:

<I updated the performance indexes for all the participants in the last prediction contest:

Contests , Avg. Tot , Avg. Gold , User ID , Tot Med , Gold Med

21 , 0.333 , 0.143 , Penguincw , 7 , 3
14 , 0.571 , 0.286 , Karposian , 8 , 4>

You can see the whole post here:

Golden Executive chessforum (kibitz #2352)

LOL. What do you see?

Answer: My "batting average" is far superior to yours! I have totally outclassed you. Again: sorry, I don't mean to sound lke a douche, but..the fact is that: I AM BETTER THAN YOU***

These last two years only <GE> and <WinKing> can compete with my numbers.

I believe <lostemperor>'s prediction contest exists to give you a reality check. You can't be too full of yourself if one of your trophy cases is empty.

< In fact, I am better than almost everybody. I only started participating in these contests in 2013, while many of you have been playing it for years and years.. >

That doesn't really say much. For one, you joined in 2010, so who knows. Maybe you just played along without posting predictions, and made adjustments along the way.

And don't even try to include me in that biased and misleading statistic. You've been playing for about 3 years (with 3 inactive years), but I have been playing for 3 years as well (2 inactive years; 2012-2014).

< So, in a very short time I have been racing up the charts in the HOF (again, not including the TPC). >

You may think you're good by winning a lot of medals in a short period of time, but that's just the problem. Winning medals in a short period of time. Just wait until reality hits you in the head, and then you might understand what "regression to the mean" is.

< Don't just take my word for it. Take a look at this interesting post made by <Golden Executive> after Bilbao regarding the Game Prediction Contest: >

Ah, very interesting!

< Answer: My "batting average" is far superior to yours! >

Basically what you are saying is that you're better than me because your batting average after 42 games is higher than mine after 63 games.

< I AM BETTER THAN YOU*** >

Is that supposed to lead to a footnote somewhere?

< These last two years only <GE> and <WinKing> can compete with my numbers. >

Have you forgotten about users such as <Switch>?

But I'm not sure what you mean by "compete with my numbers".

For <GE>'s contest, in 2014 and 2015, you and I both won 3 gold and 3 bronze. For <cm>, I'm going to let you do the calculations, because <cm> hasn't updated it (but I believe you're ahead). And then in <le>'s contest, no words needed.

It's great that you have good consistency, but for a general picture, you don't have <great> consistency (ex. winning medals all the time) nor have you ever had a contest where you made a lot of "noise".

I'm already ahead?

I'm already ahead!

So I'm ahead of you in two out of three contests, but I am only an average prediction contestant, is that it? Then you must be..hmm..below average, I suppose..ahahahaha.

<nor have you ever had a contest where you made a lot of "noise".>

Sour grapes, huh?

I contest your claim. This will be taken to court.

Exhibit A:

<YouRang: Standard Ranker - <FINAL>

Score,UserID,Rounds,Pct.
♔ 56,Karposian,13,61.5%
♕ 53,Legend,13,58.2%
♕ 53,SloVice,13,58.2%

- Congratulations to newcomer <Karposian> who proved that lots of really good rounds will earn medals. With this ingenious strategy he takes the Standard Ranker gold by a full 3 points, and the silver in 123 Ranker as well.>

YouRang chessforum (kibitz #13411)

Exhibit B:

<Betting Ranker - <FINAL>

Earnings,UserID,Rounds
♔ $9.17,Karposian,6
♕ $1.62,Golden Executive,6
♖ $1.17,OhioChessFan,6

- Congratulations to HOFer <Karposian> who won a pair of gold medals in Standard Ranker and Betting Ranker. The latter medal was gained in dramatic fashion with a final round jackpot (the only one to predict Vallejo's win over Ponomariov).>

YouRang chessforum (kibitz #16490)

And finally, the knock-out.

Exhibit C:

SINQUEFIELD CUP 2014

The Headline reads:

***KARPOSIAN WINS TRIPLE CROWN***

<OhioChessFan: ♔ Final Recap ♔

<Karposian> cruised to 3 gold medals as easily as Caruana won the tournament.>

OhioChessFan chessforum (kibitz #11681)

And look at the final standings..

Has anyone ever dominated a Moves Prediction Contest as I did at Sinquefield 2014?

<Moves Ranker - Through <FINAL Round>

Score, UserID, Over, Under, Exact

♔ 58, Karposian, 0, 4, 3
♘ 24, WinKing, 0, 2, 1
♗ 21, moulicules, 0, 3, 0

Moves+Bonus Ranker - Through <FINAL Round>

Score, UserID

♔ 74, Karposian
♘ 66, WinKing
♗ 45, Golden Executive

Moves Ranker (# of 1st place UNDER/OVER) - Through <FINAL Round>

Score,UserID

♔ 7, Karposian
♘ 3, Beholder
♘ 3, blade2012>

That is not having a <contest where you made a lot of "noise">..??

Let me end with this quote, also from Sinquefield 2014:

<Anyway, congratz to <Karposian> for scoring the triple crown. I'm not sure why he got so mad at me for "robbing" him in the first round when it didn't matter, but so it goes. ;)>

Who wrote this, I wonder..? Oh yes, that would be you :)

And yes, I won a triple crown even though you stole points from me (don't think I have forgotten it), that's how strong my performance was.

< I'm already ahead?

I'm already ahead! >

No, what I meant by that is that only counting medals from 2013-present in <cm>'s contest, you've won more. <cm> hasn't updated it in a while, so I'm not sure by how much.

< So I'm ahead of you in two out of three contests, but I am only an average prediction contestant, is that it? Then you must be..hmm..below average, I suppose..ahahahaha. >

No, it's 1-1 apiece, <GE>'s contest tied.

< I contest your claim. This will be taken to court. >

You and I live in different places, so which court do you want to take it to (try a neutral venue).

<Exhibit A> and <Exhibit B>

Wow, you <BLEW> away the competition. Good job. I clap for you. Someone give that man a cookie.

Someone give that man a medal too, cause he could use some of those.

But in case you haven't realized, it doesn't matter if you finish in a 5-way tie for 1st or win gold by 5 points, a gold is a gold. Go ahead and set that record. Unfortunately, it flies under the radar, isn't noticeable, and isn't that notable.

<Exhibit C>

Congrats to <Karposian> for being involved of one of 18 triple crowns in contest history. A triple crown is a very rare occurrence - it only occurs about once every contest!

< That is not having a <contest where you made a lot of "noise">..?? >

Okay, I'll admit that was pretty funny.

<You and I live in different places, so which court do you want to take it to (try a neutral venue).>

Well, the natural choice would be the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, The Netherlands. Is that neutral enough for you?

<(5) Karposian 4,040
(6) Forrest Gimp 3,817
(7) Penguincw 3,728>

Oh, my. Someone had a really bad day at the bookies..

-624 cbs in a day, good heavens. I almost feel sorry for the poor fellow.

Don't act like you would've done better if you were actually brave enough to bet today.

But I will credit you with one thing. For <once>, you were actually quick to update. Normally, when there's a major leaderboard change, you take <forever> to make your remarks.

Oh, I see. I'm not sure what game I meant to put, but I'll remove it. Thanks!

< I love the collection! I've been borrowing your examples to teach kids. >

Awesome, glad you're finding use for it.

In my collection, I only put examples where the game actually ends in mate, but perhaps I should set aside a section that includes games that <almost> end in mate.

The tournament runs from December 4th thru December 13th, 2015.

< Prediction Contests: (Win virtual medals - Gold, Silver & Bronze) >

User: Golden Executive - Predict the result 1-0, 1/2, or 0-1 (3 categories to medal in)

User: OhioChessFan - Predict the result 1-0, 1/2, or 0-1 & the number of moves for each game. (4 categories to medal in)

The two contests are now active & open for business!

*****

Also don't forget about <chessgames> ChessBookie game for this event. She can't wait to take some or all of your chessbucks. ;)

ChessBookie Introduction

<L E A D E R B O A R D
updated Tue Dec 1, 11:53
(5) Karposian 4,176
(6) moulicules 3,803
(7) Forrest Gimp 3,772
(8) Penguincw 3,679>

Today's result:

KARPO +136
PENGO -49

Hey, you're going the wrong way! What's going on?

But hey, glad you're actually making your move. I thought that you realized your performance to date was a fluke, and therefore stopped betting, because you'd realize if you had bet, you would lose money.

Both!

Well, I think most people enjoy the friendly banter, as Mark would have put it, on the prediction contest pages, so I think we at least should post our comments to the contests there. Here we can primarily concentrate on the bookie game, if that's all right with you.

Anyway, if you later have to close your forum, as you mentioned earlier, we can always use my forum.

Now I'm gonna spend a couple of hours analyzing the contestants in the LCC. I have a system I use to predict their performances, but the method is rather elaborate, which is good, but time-consuming!

<Not sure where you're getting -49 from. I only lost 25 cbs <today>, not since whenever the last time your update was.>

Sorry, I may have miscalculated. Anyway, I know I sounded a bit cocky, but I know perfectly well, of course, that these things fluctuate. So, I have to enjoy this while things are going well, and as long as I'm ahead of you :)

If you look at the Leaderboard, things are looking good for us both, though. Even though you've lost quite a bit recently you're still 700+ cbs ahead of no.11. So, our qualifying chances are excellent.

Seems fair enough. I know <OCF> would enjoy the fighting for sure, but <GE>'s forum might be different. I'll see.

< I wonder what will be needed to secure top ten and qualification this leg, 5500-6000 cbs, perhaps? With your experience both as a player and bookmaker, what do you think will be the cut this time? >

Too difficult to call. There are too many factors to consider. There's number of contestants, loanshark stuff, how much of the money the bookie is keeping, how much betting activity there is, how much betting activity is available, how active some participants are, and how evenly divided the money is.

This leg so far has the fewest participants among a user-bookie leg, but is sure to rise. Normally fewer participants means less money is required to win, but I had over 200 participants, and the cutoff was <4K>!