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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 707 OF 914 ·
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| Aug-27-15 | | Jim Bartle: All right, that clinches it. |
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Aug-27-15
 | | WannaBe: Here are some (useless) information on that Oh-So-Close No-no last night: http://espn.go.com/blog/jayson-star... |
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Aug-27-15
 | | WannaBe: So, LAA returned the 'favor' by holding DET to 2 hits today. |
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Aug-27-15
 | | Penguincw: Ouch. Costly error, and the Jays lose 4-1. No problem, division lead still at 1.5 games. Tomorrow, Toronto heads home to face <PB>'s team, while the Yankees visit Atlanta (grr, not fair). |
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| Aug-27-15 | | morfishine: <Jim Bartle> In answer to your question, great defense along with great pitching can offset a teams own average hitting. In the late 70's & early 80's commentators were saying Weaver knew how to win "exactly" after seeing numerous 1-run wins by the O's, usually of the low-scoring variety ***** |
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Aug-27-15
 | | WannaBe: Better Watch Out (BWO), Dr. Mr. Mad Scientist (My Pitcher Hits 8th) have acquired Fernando Rodney from Seattle!! http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/stor... Rodney will be reunited with Maddon and them Cubbies in Los Angeles as they take on the Dodgers. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | Tabanus: Two more players with full name: Leverett Harris Wight and Lee Travis Magee. No need to say thanks. This is fun! :) |
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Aug-28-15
 | | keypusher: <Jim Bartle: <*Enzo Hernandez, in 1971, coming to bat 549 times... and only getting 12 RBIs?>
This brings up an interesting question. We all know pitcher is such an important defensive position that batting ability plays no role in determining whether a pitcher plays or not. But what about other positions? How good a fielder would a shortstop have to be to play every day despite being completely unable to hit? Say he had greater range than Ozzie Smith, a rocket arm, and never made an error. Would you play him if he batted .100? Or a catcher? What if a catcher threw out 100% of base stealers and always called the pitches the batter was least expecting. And he could frame pitches 4 inches outside to look like strikes. Would you play him if he couldn't hit at all?> I assume some sabermetrician has tried to quantify it. Bill James once identified Dal Maxvill as the worst hitter who ever had a decent-sized career, because he was such a great fielder. Here are his batting numbers. http://www.baseball-reference.com/p... It's not just the .217 average, it's the complete lack of power that amazes. (Curiously, 1968 might have been his best year as a hitter.) So maybe Dal Maxvill is the closest thing to a real-life answer to your question at SS. He did commit errors, though. Would an error-free Maxvill have been able to keep his spot hitting .100? I don't think so. I picked 1971 as a representative year. Maxvill hit .225, getting 80 hits in 356 at-bats. He committed 13 errors. If he'd hit .100, he would have had 35-36 hits. So error-free Maxvill would have given up around 45 hits on offense in exchange for 13 errors. That can't be a good trade. It's an example of something we've seen before -- hitting varies more than fielding. Two further points about Maxvill.
-He never reached 500 AB in a season, presumably because he was such an offensive liability. So despite his defensive skills, he was just on the margin of being able to play. -Even so, maybe he saw more action than he should have. He played in an era in which managers often put speedy low-average guys who never walked in the leadoff position, a strategy now thought to have been complete idiocy. Maybe if he had played in the Moneyball era, Maxvill never would have gotten out of the minors. The catcher question is tougher. If a catcher could really turn a staff of Gary Gentries into Tom Seavers, that would be worth an awful lot. Could any catcher do that? I'm skeptical, but I don't know. <Jim Bartle: I think having a really outstanding defense gives confidence to a teams' pitchers. Whitey Herzog wrote in his books he told his pitchers, "Throw strikes, you've got a great defense behind you which can run down most balls."> That's an interesting point, though again challenging to quantify. I recall James, in trying to figure out why the Cubs 1906-1913 were so successful, theorized that really great infield defense might have made the difference. Of course infield defense mattered (and, I suspect, varied) much more then than now. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | WannaBe: Wow, not even week one, yet. Univ. Illinois have fired head football coach! |
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| Aug-28-15 | | Jim Bartle: Hal Lanier played shortstop for the Giants from 1965 to 1970. Very good fielder, but could not hit. This was made worse because second baseman Tito Fuentes could not hit either, meaning there was no hitting at all beyond sixth in the order. In 1971 the Giants brought up Chris Speier to play shortstop. He was pretty good, not great, but was treated like a superstar after years of Lanier. |
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| Aug-28-15 | | Jim Bartle: Concerning Maxvill and the value of his defense, of course defense is not just errors. It's the number of balls a player can get to. The ideal shortstop I imagined not only doesn't make errors, he gets to every conceivable ground ball and outfield blooper. Let's say he makes on a brilliant play on a sure hit once every two games, like the Tigers shortstop running down that popup in the World Series a couple of years ago. That's 80 fewer hits for the opposition, plus let's say 20 fewer errors than the average good shortstop. That's a hundred men on base he's taken away. A hundred taken away is the same as one hundred hits made, so add those to his .100 average (plus the intangible plus in confidence to the pitchers) and you can calculate his value. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | keypusher: So many rabbitholes the internet lets you run down...I got curious about the balance of defense and offense, so I decided to look at the 1906 Chicago White Sox, the Hitless Wonders. http://www.baseball-reference.com/l... First thing I noticed was they were actually third in the American League in runs scored (and, as you might expect, first in fewest runs allowed). So, initially I thought the Hitless Wonders moniker was just media hype. But when I looked further, I saw that they were dead last in hits and team batting average (.230, which even for 1906 is awful). As a team, they hit <7> home runs all year! So, how did they do score so many runs? Well, first, they played in a pitcher's park, which distorts their numbers a little. If you look at OPS, they were tied for last (natch), but if you look at OPS+ (which adjusts for park effects) they move up to sixth. So they were slightly better hitters than their raw numbers make them appear. But the bigger factor is walks. They had 444 walks, far more than anyone else in the league (the A's were second with 385). They were also first in the league in HBP. I don't think the high walk totals happened by accident. They were also first in the league in walks in 1907 and second in 1905. Incidentally, whatever their batting averages were, at least some of Weaver's great Orioles teams could score. In 1969, when they lost to the Mets, they were second in the AL in scoring. The 1970 World Series winners were first. In 1979, when they lost to Stargell's Pirates, they finished 8th out of 14th in runs scored in the AL. But in runs allowed they were incredible, nearly 100 fewer than the second-place Yankees. Offensively, as with the Hitless Wonders, their offense was better than batting average made it appear. They ranked 11th in hits and batting average, but third in home runs and second in walks. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | WannaBe: Thought Hal Lanier played basketball for the Pistons, what do I know!! |
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| Aug-28-15 | | Jim Bartle: Or a chess-playing computer in space? |
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| Aug-28-15 | | Jim Bartle: Earl Weaver played "Moneyball" with the O's long before the term was invented. He played seemingly average players like Sakata, Dauer, Dempsey and Ayala, but won with them. He went for big innings, didn't bunt or try to steal bases. He liked to platoon, and went against baseball wisdom by playing 6-4 Cal Ripken at shortstop. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | keypusher: <He went for big innings, didn't bunt or try to steal bases. He liked to platoon, and went against baseball wisdom by playing 6-4 Cal Ripken at shortstop.> Right, he said something like the best strategy is a three-run homer. Probably one of the smartest quotes in baseball. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | keypusher: <That's 80 fewer hits for the opposition, plus let's say 20 fewer errors than the average good shortstop. That's a hundred men on base he's taken away. A hundred taken away is the same as one hundred hits made, so add those to his .100 average (plus the intangible plus in confidence to the pitchers) and you can calculate his value.> Let's give Robo-SS and his competition 650 AB (because if Robo-SS doesn't play regularly, we lose the value of his amazing defense, plus I'm guessing he doesn't walk a lot). A .250 hitting decent fielding shortstop will get 162 hits, 97 more than .100-hitting Robo-SS. But Robo-SS takes away 100 hits. So, it's pretty much a toss-up.
How amazing a fielder would Robo-SS have to be to get 80 hits that a good shortstop wouldn't get? I suspect he'd have to be beyond incredible, like jumping eight feet in the air. But again, I don't know. (edited to correct a math error) |
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| Aug-28-15 | | Jim Bartle: <How amazing a fielder would Robo-SS have to be to get 80 hits that a good shortstop wouldn't get?> Yes, that is true. 40 would be more reasonable. I remember some sportswriters used to say Ozzie Smith saved 100 runs a year with his defense. Which is true, if you compare it to me (or Andre Rodgers, a notoriously stone-handed Giants SS) at the position. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | Phony Benoni: I'll save the Penguin the trouble by reporting that the Jays continued to soar, defeating in the Tigers 5-3. Detroit is looking more and more like a last-place team. They're a dead battery that goes through the motions, but without a spark. |
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Aug-28-15
 | | Penguincw: Yes, thank you <Phony Benoni>. :) But you forgot to mention how the Yankees did (equally important). They crushed Atlanta 15-4, so the lead remains at 1.5 games, but the magic number shrinks to 34. |
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Aug-29-15
 | | Phony Benoni: Magic numbers should never be calculated before Labor Day, and it's preferable to leave them till the first day of Autumn. Math is not a summertime activity. |
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Aug-29-15
 | | WannaBe: Glorious weekend, DET-TOR, Chess in St.L, StL-SFG, CHI-LAD. Me, I'm a simple man, I mean what else can someone want, really?! |
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Aug-29-15
 | | Penguincw: Yes, a great weekend. <PB>'s team visiting my team, your team visiting the Cubs (wait, who cheered the Cubs), etc. Today's game (which will be the only ongoing game until about 4) will be between Buck Farmer and Drew Hutchison. I'm not going to lie, both of these guys allow a lot of runs, but are usually bailed out by their offenses. However, Hutchison pitches far better at home than the road. |
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Aug-29-15
 | | Phony Benoni: Farmer's record is bad on paper. And, as any sabermetrician will tell you, this game is played on paper. |
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Aug-29-15
 | | WannaBe: A. Gose lose track of number of outs, and TOR scored from 2nd on a Sac Fly. Ugh! That'll drive a manager to drinking, in the dugout... |
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