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| Oct-29-16 | | Travis Bickle: <saffuna: Well, if the line is set by the "pro's" betting patterns, then they were idiots to give the Cubs a 2-to-1 chance of winning last night or whatever it was.> Right Jim, you're the only genius on earth. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | saffuna: Good reasoning there. Shut me down completely.
Listen, I don't believe professional gamblers ran the odds up to -200 on the Cubs last night. They aren't that foolish. But maybe I'm wrong. Look at tongith's game. Cleveland's ace is going, who has been unhittable in the psotseason. Odds are -110, -120 5/7 in Cleveland's favor. Not as much as the Cubs were getting last night. Cubs have suffered before. Had a bad streak during the middle of the season. Were shut out twice in a row by the Dodgers. But here they are in the World Series, down only 2-1 and they're bound to start hitting. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | saffuna: In case I haven't said it earlier, I think this year's Cubs are a team of destiny, like the 1986 Mets and the 1980 Royals. (Except the Royals then didn't win...) They went through the testing phase last night. They're coming back. I was so pissed when I turned on the TV last night, ESPN Latino. Usually they have their own announcers, but otherwise the same. Last night they turned down the sound so you couldn't hear the English-language announcers, but that also brought the crowd noise down low. Terrible. So I listened to the ESPN radio broadcast. But that's delayed by about a minute, which is disconcerting. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | MissScarlett: <PB>, do you still have access to the Digges book on Fine? How much coverage does he have on his 1940 simul tour? |
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Oct-29-16
 | | Phony Benoni: <MissScarlett> Wasn't even aware there was a Digges book about Fine. I did consult Woodger, but only borrowed the book for a short period through interlibrary loan. In any event, I wouldn't have paid much attention to any coverage of the 1940 simul tour. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | OhioChessFan: I have to agree the 2-1 line was ridiculous and had to be driven by overexuberant Cubs fans. But, whatever, I didn't bet it, I don't care anyway. Ironically, I was asked last night druing pregame at a family gathering what I thought the Series result would be and I said "Cubs in 6. I don't think Cleveland can keep throwing shutouts." |
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Oct-29-16
 | | WannaBe: Tonight's line, Kluber v Lackey, CHI -130 O/U 6.5 Why the line was -200 last night, Cleveland had a 'rookie' left fielder, wind was blowing out left field. Hendricks (16-8) leads NL in ERA (2.13) and 15 HRs, Tomlin (13-9) with ERA 4.40 and 36 HRs allowed in regular season. It wasn't really the big money gamblers, it was just a 'fair' line, and Vegas made money since the 'Dog won and it was under. With last night's windy condition, I'll guess everyone and their goat took the over. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | saffuna: Well, if Kluber pitching only moves the line to -130, pitching against He Who Shall Not Be Named By Giants Fans, how could last night's Hendricks vs. Tomlin be -200? Everyone seems to think Cleveland has its greatest advantage when Kluber is pitching, sort of like Bumgarner in 2014. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | Penguincw: < It wasn't really the big money gamblers, it was just a 'fair' line, and Vegas made money since the 'Dog won and it was under. > Wait, it's possible for Vegas to lose money on a bet (say, if the Cubs won yesterday)? I actually thought it was kinda like the Bookie game here on <cg>, where no matter what, the house always won money. ---
Surprised Kluber is out pitching again on short rest. The Indians are ahead, so it might not be a bad idea to let rookie Merrit pitch. This could mean that for a possible Game 7, the Indians have to choose between a short-rested Kluber, injury recovering Bauer or Salazar, rookie Merrit or Tomlin (4.58 ERA in regular season, but pitching well in postseason). But then again, the Indians have a solid bullpen. As for the Cubs, I thought they would have Lackey pitch Game 3 so that they can bring back the postseason veteran for a possible Game 7, but I'm sure any pitcher is fine. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | saffuna: If a book adjusts its line accoring to betting patterns, to make bets on the side where less money has been bet more attractive, it will make money no matter the outcome. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | WannaBe: <Penguincw> I've covered that over and over and over. =)) Yes, it's possible for casino to lose money. See this link and article from Monday: WannaBe chessforum |
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Oct-29-16
 | | saffuna: Only if the book doesn't react, or is trying to make a big score. |
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Oct-29-16
 | | WannaBe: Stanford's football game starts at 8PM Pacific, if anyone's tired of the baseball game. =) |
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Oct-29-16
 | | Phony Benoni: Detroit is roughly halfway between Chicago and Cleveland, which may be why one side of my house is deathly quite while the other side is rockin' and rollin'. |
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Oct-30-16
 | | WannaBe: If it ain't rockin' don't bother knockin'!! =)) I gotta start drinking DeCafs... |
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Oct-30-16
 | | Penguincw: 2016 NBA Finals: Cleveland goes <down> 3-1 vs. the team with the best record in the league. 2016 World Series: Cleveland goes <up> 3-1 vs. the team with the best record in the league. Another 3-1 choke? |
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Oct-30-16
 | | MissScarlett: <Wasn't even aware there was a Digges book about Fine.> Quite so. My brain (I abjure responsibility) confused Woodger with Leonard Digges. |
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Oct-30-16
 | | WannaBe: J. Lester and the Cubs are heavy favourite for tonight's game. -225 O/U 7. |
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Oct-30-16
 | | WannaBe: OMG, but I think the fans are just still hung over from Friday and Saturday's celebration of Indians... https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/... |
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Oct-30-16
 | | WannaBe: Oakland's still undefeated on the road, TB still have not won at home. |
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Oct-30-16
 | | saffuna: What a shocking final play in Oakland-Tampa Bay! Not that the Raiders score. That they didn't have a penalty. |
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Oct-30-16
 | | WannaBe: Currently Cubs have scheduled J. Arrieta to start game 6 vs Undecided. But I believe it will be Tomlin. I'll go out on a limb, and predict early line to be Cubs -150, with O/U 7.5 |
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Oct-31-16
 | | WannaBe: I was close... -140 and 7. A lot of time for the lines to change before tomorrow's first pitch. |
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Oct-31-16
 | | WannaBe: Must be Halloween, them Packers are dressed like Bears' player, and vice versa. |
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Oct-31-16
 | | WannaBe: Cubs line have jumped!! Chicago now -160, no change on O/U 7 runs, still. |
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