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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 195 OF 285 ·
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Mar-18-16
 | | lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER 6
Earnings,UserID
$23.66,WannaBe
$19.82,Penguincw
$18.49,Karposian
~~~~~~
$14.41,lakshashishu
$13.56,positionalgenius
$12.13,rogge
$6.43,MarbleSkull
$5.03,chessmoron
$-0.31,Beholder
$-0.31,SwitchingQuylthulg
$-0.45,whiteshark
$-1.16,moronovich
$-1.42,lostemperor
$-1.44,alfamikewhiskey
$-5.57,cromat
$-5.79,zealandzen
$-6.50,OhioChessFan
$-9.01,Robin01
$-10.15,Golden Executive
$-10.15,offramp
$-10.38,Schwartz
$-10.74,Aurora
$-11.60,wordfunph
$-12.93,WinKing
$-15.60,YouRang |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$25.00,Caruana-equal-Giri, Karposian
$25.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, WannaBe
$25.00,Nakamura-equal-Topalov, Penguincw
$12.50,Aronian-equal-Karjakin, MarbleSkull + rogge
$8.33,Anand-above-Caruana, lakshashishu + Schwartz + WannaBe $5.00,Aronian-above-Caruana, alfamikewhiskey + chessmoron + lakshashishu + Penguincw + positionalgenius $4.17,Svidler-above-Nakamura, Beholder + chessmoron + OhioChessFan + SwitchingQuylthulg + wordfunph + zealandzen |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: <lakshashishu> and <positionalgenius> taking the lead thereby passing <MAGNUS CARLSEN> a.k.a <rogge> to close second and third place in respectively the absolute and square ranker. <WannaBe> still very strong in the pair betings. Eight rounds and three rest days to go! |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: PREDICTIONS' STATISTICS:
Average prediction,Player,highest prediction,lowest prediction 1.86,Caruana,1.0,7.0
3.82,Aronian,1.0,7.0
3.88,Nakamura,1.0,7.5
4.40,Anand,1.5,8.0
4.72,Giri,2.0,8.0
4.90,Karjakin,2.0,8.0
6.10,Svidler,2.0,8.0
6.32,Topalov,1.0,8.0
Deviations per player after 6 rounds:
Deviation,Player
91,Nakamura
85,Karjakin
71,Caruana
63,Aronian
47,Anand
42,Giri
38,Topalov
33,Svidler |
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| Mar-18-16 | | Golden Executive: <lostemperor: I saw this posted by <Golden Executive> http://en.chessbase.com/post/comput... Computers calculatiing the outcome of the Candidates. If I can include it in our Prediction game without infuencing the pair bettings I would.> I calculated the scores for the computer predictions and also for the average of 9 Bookies that are mentioned in that ChessBase article. After Round 6:
Absolute Ranker Score, Square Ranker Score, ID
12, 92, AVG 9 BOOKIES
6, 70, COMPUTER
Based on:
COMPUTER
1. Caruana
2. Nakamura
3. Giri
4. Aronian
5. Topalov
6. Ananad
6. Karjakin
8. Svidler
AVG 9 BOOKIES
1. Nakamura
2. Caruana
3. Aronian
4. Giri
5. Karjakin
6. Anand
7. Topalov
8. Svidler |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: You calculated this by yourself <Golden Executive>? Nice. It is a heck of a job even for just two contestants! I used to do this for all contestants before <YouRang> made a calculating program! :p Good to see the computer can also fail terribly with its predictions/calculations regarding the outcome of the candidates as seen in the the chessbase article by analysing thousands of games and results of the players! And It did not even took a gamble as we sometimes do! :) I think I can try another source from which the program can read te predictions which this time including pseudo-contestants. Will try and see how the program reacts. |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: So based on <Golden Executive>'s calculations this is absolute ranker including the <COMPUTER> and <BOOKIES ODDS> after six rounds Score,UserID
21,lakshashishu
20,MAGNUS CARLSEN
20,positionalgenius
20,rogge
~~~~
19,chessmoron
17,alfamikewhiskey
17,moronovich
16,whiteshark
15,lostemperor
15,SwitchingQuylthulg
14,Beholder
14,MarbleSkull
13,Aurora
13,cromat
13,WinKing
12, BOOKIES ODDS
12,Golden Executive
12,offramp
11,Karposian
11,OhioChessFan
11,WannaBe
10,Penguincw
9,Robin01
9,zealandzen
8,wordfunph
7,Schwartz
6,COMPUTER
5,YouRang |
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| Mar-18-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor: <YouRang> can you tell me how to put pseudo-contestants into the standings predicitions without influencing the pair betting ranker?> My recollection is that the YRC file provides a "ReportOptions" key in the [Setup] section to specify specific options, where each option is identified by a named parameter. For example, if you want the Pair Betting report to display only winnings of $5 or more, you can use the 'MinPayoutDisp' parameter as follows: <ReportOptions=MinPayoutDisp:5.00> There should be another parameter for specifying Pair Betting robots called 'PBRobots'. For example, if you have 3 robots "MONKEY", "ELO" and "MCPREDICTS", you could add the following: <ReportOptions=MinPayoutDisp:5.00 PBRobots:MONKEY,ELO,MCPREDICTS> Good luck... |
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Mar-18-16
| | lostemperor: Wow <YouRang> I am total ignorant on programming but I will try to find out what you mean. Thanks! |
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| Mar-18-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> There's no programming required, lol. You're just editing the same YRC file that you always edit when you revise the standings. :-) |
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| Mar-18-16 | | Golden Executive: <lostemperor: You calculated this by yourself <Golden Executive>? Nice. It is a heck of a job even for just two contestants! I used to do this for all contestants before <YouRang> made a calculating program! :p> Yes it is a lot of job, so in 2015, as a hobby, I wrote a program and spent sometime to came here and compare my results with yours until I obtained exactly the same. If you ever have any complications to do some of the rounds, I will be glad to cover you for "n" rounds. By the way, being you an owner of one of the modules of <YouRang>'s CONMAN series I think you can follow me with this -- I was slowly exploring the CONMAN's user interface for the very first time, I was fully concentrated (you know, all focus, zero noises around) then I noticed the little icon with a picture of Lurch changed to another one when I hover my mouse over it, so intrigued I clicked over it and then I jumped from my seat after unexpectedly hearing a voice from beyond the grave: Youuu Raaaang -- Great! |
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| Mar-19-16 | | YouRang: <Golden Executive><...I jumped from my seat after unexpectedly hearing a voice from beyond the grave: Youuu Raaaang> HAHA! :-)
I considered having a little animation of a pull-down hang-man noose (like in the show) that goes down and up while clanging the gong, but one only has limited time for adding trinkets. |
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Mar-19-16
| | lostemperor: <Golden Executive, YouRang> LOL, I only hear that now "YOU RANG!" I have always wondered if <YouRang> resembled Lurch a bit?! |
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Mar-19-16
| | lostemperor: <<ReportOptions=MinPayoutDisp:5.00 PBRobots:MONKEY,ELO,MCPREDICTS>> I understand what you mean <YouRang>. The problem is i cannot find nor have I seen the above options. The only options I see now in an YRC file is [Setup]
Contest=CHESSFS
Title=2012 Bilbao Chess Tournament
Filter=chessgames.com
FilterFixups=Caru->Cru
Keep1st=No
OptSourceSpec=C:\CONMAN\corstand.TXT
MinRound=1
Maybe I missed what you mean or were the options you gave from the games results predicitons? |
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| Mar-19-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> Yes, that is the [Setup] section I was talking about. Just take the line I mentioned above an put it anywhere in there, e.g. [Setup]
Contest=CHESSFS
Title=2012 Bilbao Chess Tournament
Filter=chessgames.com
FilterFixups=Caru->Cru
Keep1st=No
OptSourceSpec=C:\CONMAN\corstand.TXT
MinRound=1
ReportOptions=MinPayoutDisp:5.00 PBRobots:ELO,BOOKIE
The example above identifies two robots: ELO and BOOKIE. Change this to include the robots you want. Also, if you want to display Pair Betting earnings as low as (say) $3.00, change the MinPayoutDisp parameter to 3.00 instead of 5.00. You may want to change your Title= line to reflect the current tournament, but it's up to you. |
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| Mar-19-16 | | YouRang: <I have always wondered if <YouRang> resembled Lurch a bit?!> About the same height and I am fond of lurking, but (thankfully) the resemblance stops there. |
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| Mar-19-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> For this tournament, you should add a robot called LOSER which follows my predictions. :-\ |
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Mar-19-16
| | lostemperor: Thanks Lurch! I will try it. I dont understand the minPayoutDisp:5.00 though. Why is that for and won't it affect the pair betting process? |
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| Mar-19-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> When you run the Pair Betting report, it includes a list of "large payoffs" pairings. The MinPayoutDisp:5.00 parameter tells it to NOT display any "large payoffs" below $5.00. But if you're happy with the report the way it is, just leave out that parameter and keep only the PBRobots parameter. For example: <ReportOptions=PBRobots:ELO,BOOKIE> This defines the two robots (ELO and BOOKIE) and otherwise leaves the Pair Betting report alone. |
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Mar-20-16
| | lostemperor: Thanks <YouRang>! I will give it a try:) |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: <CANDIDATES ROUND 8 UPDATE
<Round 7
Svidler-Caruana 1/2
Karjakin-Aronian 1/2
Nakamura-Topalov 1-0
Giri-Anand 1/2
<Round 8
Svidler-Karjakin 1/2
Caruana-Nakamura 1-0
Aronian-Giri 1/2
Topalov-Anand 1/2
<Standings:
1. Karjakin
1. Aronian
3. Anand
3. Caruana
5. Giri
6. Svidler
7. Nakamura
8. Topalov>> > > |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: PREDICTIONS STANDINGS
ABSOLUTE RANKER 8
Score,UserID
22,positionalgenius
21,lakshashishu
21,MAGNUS CARLSEN
21,rogge
~~~~~~
20,moronovich
19,chessmoron
18,alfamikewhiskey
18,whiteshark
17,lostemperor
17,SwitchingQuylthulg
16,Beholder
16,MarbleSkull
15,Aurora
14,cromat
14,WinKing
13,Golden Executive
13,offramp
12,Karposian
12,Penguincw
11,OhioChessFan
11,Robin01
11,zealandzen
10,wordfunph
9,WannaBe
8,Schwartz
7,COMPUTER
7,YouRang |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: Score,UserID
149,positionalgenius
145,MAGNUS CARLSEN
145,rogge
141,lakshashishu
~~~~~~
138,moronovich
135,alfamikewhiskey
135,whiteshark
127,SwitchingQuylthulg
125,lostemperor
121,chessmoron
119,MarbleSkull
117,Beholder
110,cromat
108,Aurora
108,Golden Executive
108,offramp
107,WinKing
99,Karposian
92,Penguincw
92,Robin01
89,zealandzen
84,wordfunph
82,OhioChessFan
80,COMPUTER
66,WannaBe
62,Schwartz
58,YouRang |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER 8
Earnings,UserID
$33.81,MarbleSkull
$15.32,WannaBe
$14.69,positionalgenius
~~~~~~
$14.51,rogge
$7.33,lakshashishu
$6.16,chessmoron
$2.07,Beholder
$2.07,SwitchingQuylthulg
$1.94,whiteshark
$1.23,moronovich
$0.97,lostemperor
$0.94,alfamikewhiskey
$-3.18,cromat
$-3.40,zealandzen
$-4.04,Penguincw
$-5.26,Karposian
$-5.37,OhioChessFan
$-6.63,Robin01
$-7.76,Golden Executive
$-7.76,offramp
$-8.36,Aurora
$-9.22,wordfunph
$-10.54,WinKing
$-13.21,YouRang
$-16.32,Schwartz |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$25.00,Anand-equal-Caruana, MarbleSkull
$25.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, WannaBe
$12.50,Aronian-equal-Karjakin, MarbleSkull + rogge
$5.00,Aronian-above-Caruana, alfamikewhiskey + chessmoron + lakshashishu + Penguincw + positionalgenius $4.17,Svidler-above-Nakamura, Beholder + chessmoron + OhioChessFan + SwitchingQuylthulg + wordfunph + zealandzen |
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