User Profile: lostemperor

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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25

♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>
Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12
Format example to post your predictions
1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca
Good Luck!
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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:
For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).
In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).
The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.
Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.
The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!
Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.
Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.
Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!
or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>
Enjoy!
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<HALL <OF> FAME>
WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~
♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus
~~~~
♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa
~~~~
♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM
*may be incomplete
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze
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♙♙

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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7714 times to chessgames [more...]

   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum

lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!

   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum

lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.

   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum

lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn

   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024)

lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov

   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023)

lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖

   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023)

lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖

indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 276 OF 285 · Later Kibitzing>
Jan-27-22		lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS ROUND 9 AND 10 UPDATE< 4 decisive games per round (upsets in round 10)!< Round 9 Giri-Shankland 1-0 Duda-Esipenko 1/2 Van Foreest-Dubov 1/2 Grandelius-Caruana 0-1 Rapport-Vidit 1/2 Praggnanandhaa-Karjakin 0-1 Carlsen-Mamedyarov 1-0 Round 10 Shankland-Mamedyarov 1/2 Karjakin-Carlsen 1/2 Vidit-Praggnanandhaa 0-1 Caruana-Rapport 0-1 Dubov-Grandelius 0-1 Esipenko-Van Foreest 1-0 Giri - Duda 1/2< standings: 1. Carlsen 2. Giri 3. Mamedyarov 3. Rapport 5. Vidit 5. Esipenko 5. Karjakin 8. Caruana 9. VanForeest 9. Duda 11. Shankland 12. Dubov 12. Pragnanandhaa 14. Grandelius>>>>

Jan-27-22		lostemperor: ♔♕♖<PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER ROUND 10> <ABSOLUTE RANKER> Score,UserID 67,ELO 63,sadosa 60,OhioChessFan 60,paavoh ~~~~ 58,lostemperor 57,Keyser Soze 55,WinKing 41,chessmoron 26,Messiah 18,Penguincw <SQUARE RANKER> Score,UserID 797,ELO 797,sadosa 757,OhioChessFan 751,paavoh ~~~~ 721,lostemperor 719,WinKing 716,Keyser Soze 566,chessmoron 427,Messiah 248,Penguincw <PAIR BETTING RANKER> Earnings,UserID $27.13,sadosa $12.45,OhioChessFan $9.82,Keyser Soze ~~~~ $5.39,WinKing $-0.45,paavoh $-2.55,lostemperor $-6.14,Messiah $-18.98,Penguincw $-26.69,chessmoron

Jan-27-22		lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results: Payoff,Pair result,Winners $9.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, Penguincw $9.00,Karjakin-equal-Vidit, WinKing $9.00,Mamedyarov-above-Dubov, sadosa $9.00,Mamedyarov-equal-Rapport, paavoh $9.00,Pragnanandhaa-above-Grandelius, Keyser Soze $9.00,Rapport-above-Caruana, Penguincw $9.00,Rapport-above-Dubov, sadosa $9.00,Shankland-above-Dubov, Messiah $9.00,Vidit-above-Caruana, Penguincw $9.00,Vidit-above-Dubov, OhioChessFan

Jan-27-22		OhioChessFan: I'm surprised I'm still in second. Vidit's 2 losses were really bad for me.

Jan-29-22		lostemperor: Dubov out of the tournament because of Covid infection.. Have to give some thought how to rank him if even..

Jan-29-22		OhioChessFan: Yeah, this is a hard call. It is bad enough in the other 2 contests, but it's even worse here.

Jan-29-22		OhioChessFan: Vidit is killing me...

Jan-29-22		Penguincw: Definitely unexpected, but I think using official scores (ie. treat the forfeits as losses) is best. An alternate would be to rank players based on % of points, though this gets messy (ex. would Giri, who had a R7 forfeit win, be out of 12 or 13?).

Jan-29-22		OhioChessFan: Those are the 2 plausible choices.

Jan-31-22		lostemperor: Thanks guys! Since I started these predictions contests, never I encounter a player withdrawing during tournament. I decide to stick to the original tournament rankings since Dubov was already shared 12/13 before his 3 games forfeit losses. That was already lower than anybody predicted. And even though two of Dubov's last three opponents, besides Giri, Rapport and Pragganandhaa have moved up a bit thanks to forfeited wins, it is only 1 (shared) spot. Carlsen would have been sole winner regardless of his outcome with Dubov (a forfeited win).

Jan-31-22		lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS ROUND 11, 12, 13 UPDATE< Great fighting tournament, lots of decisive games, major upsets!< Round 11 Duda-Shankland 1/2 Van Foreest-Giri 1-0 Grandelius-Esipenko 1/2 Rapport-Dubov 1-0F Praggnanandhaa-Caruana 0-1 Carlsen-Vidit 1/2 Mamedyarov-Karjakin 1/2 Round 12 Shankland-Karjakin 1-0 Vidit-Mamedyarov 0-1 Caruana-Carlsen 0-1 Dubov-Praggnanandha 0-1F Esipenko-Rapport 1/2 Giri-Grandelius 1/2 Duda-Van Foreest 1/2 Round 13 Van Foreest-Shankland 1-0 Grandelius-Duda 1/2 Rapport-Giri 1/2 Praggnanandhaa-Esipenko 1-0 Carlsen - Dubov 1-0F Mamedyarov-Caruana 1/2 Karjakin-Vidit 1-0< standings: 1. Carlsen 9.5 2. Mamedyarov 8 2. Rapport 4. Giri 7.5 5. Karjakin 7 5. VanForeest 7. Esipenko 6.5 7. Caruana 9. Duda 6 9. Vidit 11. Shankland 5.5 11. Pragnanandhaa 13. Grandelius 4.5 14. Dubov 3.5>>>>

Jan-31-22		lostemperor: ♔♕♖<FINAL PREDICTION RESULTS>♖♕♔ <ABSOLUTE RANKER> Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98 Score,UserID 66,ELO ♔63,sadosa ♕57,paavoh ♖53,Keyser Soze ~~~~ 52,lostemperor 52,WinKing 51,OhioChessFan 43,chessmoron 29,Messiah 9,Penguincw <SQUARE RANKER> Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910 Score,UserID 793,ELO 770,sadosa♔ 687,paavoh♕ ♖671,OhioChessFan ~~~~ 670,Keyser Soze 657,lostemperor 648,WinKing 577,chessmoron 430,Messiah 183,Penguincw <PAIR BETTING RANKER> Earnings,UserID $22.44,sadosa♔ ♕$10.30,Keyser Soze ♖$4.19,chessmoron ~~~~ $1.83,paavoh $1.83,OhioChessFan $-1.37,Messiah $-6.57,lostemperor $-14.22,Penguincw $-18.43,WinKing

Jan-31-22		lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results: JACKPOTS!! ======= Payoff,Pair result,Winners $9.00,Duda-equal-Vidit, chessmoron $9.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, Penguincw $9.00,Mamedyarov-above-Dubov, sadosa $9.00,Mamedyarov-equal-Rapport, paavoh $9.00,Pragnanandhaa-above-Grandelius, Keyser Soze $9.00,Pragnanandhaa-equal-Shankland, paavoh $9.00,Rapport-above-Caruana, Penguincw $9.00,Rapport-above-Dubov, sadosa $9.00,Rapport-above-Giri, Penguincw $9.00,Shankland-above-Dubov, Messiah $9.00,VanForeest-above-Esipenko, chessmoron $9.00,Vidit-above-Dubov, OhioChessFan

Jan-31-22		lostemperor: TATA STEEL CHESS 2022 WINNERS: Gold (three Crown)* <sadosa> Silver <paavoh> and <Keyser Soze> Bronze <OhioChessFan> and <chessmoron> Congratulations!! *(for the still unfinished Hall of Fame one ♔, ♕, ♖ will be added)

Jan-31-22		WinKing: Thanks for running your contest <lostempoeror>. A few new faces & a different mix of players at Tata Steel this year. A little harder to predict. Always enjoy playing here! Congratulations to <sadosa> on winning Gold (Triple Crown)! You are now a Hall of Famer winning your first ever Gold medal. Congrats to the other medal winners as well!

Jan-31-22		paavoh: Wow, silver medals for me - unexpected! Tough tournament to predict overall. Thanks <lostemperor> for running the contest, congratulations to all medalists, especially <sadosa>, and good luck to all for the next event!

Jan-31-22		Keyser Soze: wow! Unexpected for me. heh heh I take it. :) Thanks <le> for running the show.

Jan-31-22		OhioChessFan: Thanks many for to you running contest the.

Jun-13-22		Penguincw: Hi <lostemperor>. Do you plan to have a tournament for the Candidates?

Jul-04-22		lostemperor: Sorry <Penguincw>. I was on holidays. But people can always post their predictions here and we'll have a contest in case there are around 10 contestants!

Jul-05-22		Penguincw: That's fine. Hope you enjoyed your holidays. But sure, I'll keep that in mind for next time.

Jan-10-23		OhioChessFan: Looks good.

Jan-10-23		lostemperor: Ah back up!

Jan-10-23		lostemperor: Hi all the forum is now reopened. Time for the Tata Steel tournament final standings contest. 1. Carlsen, 2. Ding Liren, 3.Caruana, 4. Giri, 5. So, 6. Rapport, 7. Aronian, 8. Gukesh 9. Erigaisi 10. Maghsoodloo 11. Abdusattorov 12. Keymer 13. Praggnanandhaa 14. Van Foreest Put the participants in your order of finishing! GL

Jan-10-23		Keyser Soze: Hi <emperor> happy 2023! My predictions , then 1. Carlsen, 2. Caruana 3. Ding Liren 4. Rapport, 5. So, 6. Giri, 7. Aronian, 8. Gukesh 9. Maghsoodloo 10. Erigaisi 11. Praggnanandhaa 12. Van Foreest 13. Abdusattorov 14. Keymer

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