User Profile: lostemperor

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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25

♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>
Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12
Format example to post your predictions
1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca
Good Luck!
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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:
For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).
In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).
The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.
Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.
The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!
Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.
Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.
Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!
or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>
Enjoy!
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<HALL <OF> FAME>
WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~
♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus
~~~~
♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa
~~~~
♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM
*may be incomplete
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze
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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7714 times to chessgames [more...]

   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum

lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!

   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum

lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.

   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum

lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn

   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024)

lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov

   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023)

lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖

   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023)

lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖

indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 282 OF 285 · Later Kibitzing>
Jan-24-24		lostemperor: Thanks <OhioChessFan>! Will be looking into it tomorrow.

Jan-25-24		lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS 2024 <<ROUND 10 standings: 1. Abdusattorov 1. Gukesh 1. Giri 4. Praggnanandhaa 4. Nepomniatchi 4. Firouzja 4. Vidit 8. WeiYi 8. Ding 10. Wenjun 10. Maghsoodloo 12. Warmerdam 13. Donchenko 13. VanForeest>>> TATA STEEL CHESS 2024 ♔♕♖THE PREDICTIONS♔♕♖ <STANDARD RANKER 10> Score,UserID 67,EvanTheTerrible 66,fabelhaft 62,lostemperor ~~~~ 55,Teyss 50,OhioChessFan 47,RATINGS 47,Golden Executive 45,Messiah 39,Penguincw <SQUARE RANKER 10> Score,UserID 823,fabelhaft 791,EvanTheTerrible 775,lostemperor ~~~~ 711,Teyss 686,OhioChessFan 657,Golden Executive 615,RATINGS 537,Penguincw 493,Messiah <PAIR BETTING RANKER> Earnings,UserID $30.22,lostemperor $17.71,fabelhaft $14.26,EvanTheTerrible ~~~~ $1.41,Messiah $-0.89,Golden Executive $-5.24,Teyss $-13.04,OhioChessFan $-19.44,Penguincw Large Payoff Pair results: Payoff,Pair result,Winners $9.00,Abdusattorov-equal-Gukesh, Penguincw $9.00,Giri-equal-Praggnanandhaa, Golden Executive $9.00,Gukesh-above-Giri, lostemperor $9.00,Gukesh-above-Praggnanandhaa, lostemperor $9.00,Vidit-equal-WeiYi, Golden Executive $9.00,Warmerdam-above-VanForeest, Messiah $4.50,Gukesh-above-Firouzja, fabelhaft + lostemperor $4.50,Gukesh-above-Nepomniatchi, lostemperor + Messiah $4.50,Warmerdam-above-Donchenko, Messiah + OhioChessFan $4.50,Wenjun-above-Donchenko, Messiah + Penguincw

Jan-26-24		lostemperor: Of course the standings after 10 rounds should be 1. Abdusattorov 1. Gukesh 3. Giri 3. Praggnanandhaa 5. Nepomniatchi 5. Firouzja 5. Vidit 5. WeiYi 9. Ding 9. Wenjun 9. Maghsoodloo 9. Warmerdam 13. Donchenko 13. VanForeest It was well processed however. Next update after the final round. With three different leaders in the 3 rankers make up for an exciting finish.

Jan-26-24		EvanTheTerrible: Outside of my underestimation of Gukesh, I'm on the edge of perfection. Selfishly, I'm starting to care more about this than the tournament itself.

Jan-27-24		lostemperor: You got that right <EvanTheTerrible>. About underestimating Gukesh that is :) Predictions statistics: average predictions and deviations Average Prediction,Player,Highest prediction,Lowest prediction 3.83,Giri,1.0,6.5 4.61,Firouzja,1.0,9.0 4.67,Nepomniatchi,1.0,14.0 4.72,Praggnanandhaa,2.0,7.0 5.06,Abdusattorov,1.0,10.0 5.33,Ding,1.0,11.0 6.94,WeiYi,4.0,10.5 7.44,Vidit,2.0,11.0 8.11,Gukesh,2.0,12.0 8.44,VanForeest,2.0,12.0 8.83,Maghsoodloo,7.0,10.0 11.61,Warmerdam,1.0,14.0 12.28,Donchenko,11.0,13.0 13.11,Wenjun,8.0,14.0 Deviations per player: Deviation,Player' 60,Gukesh 48,Ding 46,VanForeest 35,Nepomniatchi 34,Abdusattorov 29,Warmerdam 29,Wenjun 24,Firouzja 24,Vidit 22,WeiYi 15,Giri 15,Maghsoodloo 15,Praggnanandhaa 11,Donchenko Best prediction on biggest upset GUKESH ranked 1-2 after 10 rounds: <lostemperor> (Gukesh rank 2) There are a lot of very strong young talents Firouzja, Abdusattorov, Praggnanandhaa and Gukesh is the youngest of them. And how would he fair against the world elite, Ding, Nepomniatchi, Giri? But I had total confidence :)

Jan-27-24		EvanTheTerrible: Good luck to everyone for the final round!

Jan-28-24		lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS 2024 <FINAL ROUND>> Wei Yi won the 4-way tie breaker! <standings: 1. Wei Yi 1. Gukesh 1. Abdusattorov 1. Giri 5. Firouzja 5. Vidit 5. Praggnanandhaa 8. Nepomniatchi 9. Ding 10. Wenjun 10. Maghsoodloo 10. VanForeest 10. Donchenko 14. Warmerdam>>> TATA STEEL CHESS 2024 ♔♕♖THE PREDICTIONS♔♕♖ <STANDARD RANKER< Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98>> Score,UserID ♔71,EvanTheTerrible ♔71,fabelhaft ♖62,lostemperor ~~~~ 57,Teyss 50,RATINGS 49,Golden Executive 48,Penguincw 46,OhioChessFan 43,Messiah <SQUARE RANKER <Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910>> Score,UserID 836,fabelhaft♔ 820,EvanTheTerrible♕ 764,lostemperor♖ ~~~~ 728,Teyss 663,Golden Executive 663,OhioChessFan 641,RATINGS 624,Penguincw 485,Messiah <PAIR BETTING RANKER FINAL> Earnings,UserID $32.91,EvanTheTerrible ♔ $32.70,fabelhaft♕ $28.35,lostemperor♖ ~~~~ $4.11,Penguincw $3.45,Teyss $-0.43,Messiah $-10.50,Golden Executive $-12.60,OhioChessFan Large Payoff Pair results: Payoff,Pair result,Winners JACKPOT!! $9.00,Abdusattorov-equal-Gukesh, Penguincw jACKPOT!! $9.00,Giri-equal-Gukesh, Golden Executive JACKPOT!! $9.00,Gukesh-above-Praggnanandhaa, lostemperor JACKPOT!! $9.00,Wenjun-above-Warmerdam, Penguincw Semi-Jackpot! $4.50,Gukesh-above-Firouzja, fabelhaft + lostemperor Semi-Jackpot! $4.50,Gukesh-above-Nepomniatchi, lostemperor + Messiah Semi-Jackpot! $4.50,Vidit-above-Nepomniatchi, EvanTheTerrible + Messiah

Jan-28-24		lostemperor: After fabulous touranament and a tense finish <EvanTheTerrible> and <fabelhaft> won the standard ranker!! The square tie-breaker goes to fabelhaft but the prestigeous Pair Betting ranker fell prey to EvanTheTerrible. Congratulations!! Bronze goes to lostemperor!

Jan-28-24		OhioChessFan: Thanks <le>

Jan-28-24		EvanTheTerrible: I'll take it! Thank you <lostemperor>.

Jan-29-24		Penguincw: Guess I'm going upside-down next time. :p Thanks <lostemperor> for hosting this. See you next time, which hopefully isn't long from now.

Jan-29-24		Golden Executive: Thanks <le> and congratulations to all of the medal winners. See you guys next time!

Jan-29-24		Teyss: Hi lostemperor, Thanks for hosting this. Congrats to <EvanTheTerrible> and <fabelhaft> for winning the contest. Since each win a tiebreaker we can say it's a joint victory.

Jan-29-24		lostemperor: Thanks all! Next tournament the Candidates' tournament April 5! 1.Nepomniachtchi 2.Caruana 3. Nakamura 4. Firouzja 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Gukesh 7. Vidit 8. Abasov

Feb-12-24		EvanTheTerrible: 1. Firouzja 2. Caruana 3. Vidit 4. Nepomniachtchi 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Gukesh 7. Abasov 8. Nakamura

Feb-13-24		Messiah: The Candidates tournament will be canceled, so there will be no final standings. This is my bet.

Feb-13-24		EvanTheTerrible: For bonus points, why is it canceled?

Feb-13-24		Messiah: <EvanTheTerrible: For bonus points, why is it canceled?> No idea, just guessing.

Mar-17-24		EvanTheTerrible: Seems unlikely, Messiah. Care to update your prediction so it's not just lostemperor and myself?

Mar-18-24		offramp: If we change our minds then can we change our minds?

Mar-18-24		offramp: Here is my early prediction. 1.= Firouzja 1.= Caruana 3. Abasov 4.= Praggnanandhaa 4.= Vidit 6. Nepomniachtchi 7. Nakamura 8. Gukesh This is going to be a great GREAT tournament!!

Mar-18-24		offramp: D'you remember the chess magazines talking about a plague of short draws? In the 1960s to the 1990s. In this tournament there will be a fiesta of <VERY LONG GAMES>!

Mar-18-24		Messiah: <EvanTheTerrible: Seems unlikely, Messiah. Care to update your prediction so it's not just lostemperor and myself?> Yes, of course, and thank you for the reminder. My prediction is rather wild, depleting the meaning of wishful thinking: 1. Gukesh 2. Abasov 3. Nakamura 4. Assblasteza 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Bill 7. Caruana 8. Vidit I have to note that I actually like Vidit (in fact, I like all of the players above), so him finishing in the last place is not a 'wish' of mine at all.

Mar-23-24		EvanTheTerrible: Anyone else feel like throwing their hat in the ring? There are only 4 of us currently.

Mar-23-24		EvanTheTerrible: <Messiah>, that's a crazy prediction, with Abasov finishing 2nd and Caruana 7th. I thought I was taking a risk putting Nakamura 8th, but you have outdone me.

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