User Profile: lostemperor

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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25

♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>
Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12
Format example to post your predictions
1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca
Good Luck!
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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:
For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).
In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).
The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.
Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.
The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!
Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.
Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.
Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!
or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>
Enjoy!
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<HALL <OF> FAME>
WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖
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♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg
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♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw
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♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
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♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus
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♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa
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♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM
*may be incomplete
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze
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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames [more...]

   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum

lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!

   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum

lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.

   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum

lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn

   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024)

lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov

   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023)

lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖

   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023)

lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖

indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 48 OF 285 · Later Kibitzing>
Feb-13-08		WannaBe: Manners?! Manners!! I didn't even use the word 'please'! =)

Feb-13-08		lostemperor: Here the rankings according to ELO the ratings 1. Anand 2799 2. Topalov 2780 3. Shirov 2755 3. Leko 2753 3. Ivanchuk 2751 6. Aronian 2739 6. Radjabov 2735 6. Carlsen 2733 Though things have change somewhat after Corus

Feb-13-08		lostemperor: We can call these new VIRTUAL ratings ELO+ (copied from a post of frogbert). Final standings according to ELO+ or DEEP ELO(correct me if the expected score is different?) 1. Anand 2793 2. Topalov 2767 3. Shirov 2756 3. Leko 2755 3. Aronian 2752 3. Carlsen 2751 3. Radjabov 2746 3. Ivanchuk 2741

Feb-13-08		SwitchingQuylthulg: <lostemperor> If you're using the <frogbert> table you should have =7. Radjabov/Ivanchuk instead of =3. Radjabov/Ivanchuk. Unless you have some weird method I don't understand for calculating the rating->expected position conversion :)

Feb-13-08		lostemperor: <SwitchingQuylthulg> OK thanks! I just copied the numbers from frogbert post. No I don't have a weird method. I just want to give <ELO> a shot at winning the title for once! :) So this is how it should be it on expected score: DEEP ELO (virtual): 1. Anand 2793 2. Topalov 2767 3. Shirov 2756 3. Leko 2755 3. Aronian 2752 3. Carlsen 2751 7. Radjabov 2746 7. Ivanchuk 2741

Feb-13-08		SwitchingQuylthulg: <lostemperor> Actually, possibly not - Topalov's expected score is either 7.22 or 7.24, depending on what you do with those 1/10ths of a point that appear on the <frogbert> list, which technically rounds down to 7/14 and thus puts him together with the Shirov/Leko/Aronian/Carlsen pack as shared 2nd. But it feels very logical to put him as lone 2nd, given he's further from that pack than 7th place Radja is at the other end... I guess it's up to you to decide whether Topa should be lone 2nd or if the five of them should all be predicted to share second.

Feb-13-08		DrawingIsLife: My predictions: 1. Anand 2. Carlsen 3. Shirov 4. Aronian 5. Leko 6. Ivanchuk 7. Radjabov 8. Topalov

Feb-13-08		lostemperor: <SwitchingQuylthulg> Thanks for your clarification. I think I leave Topalov on sole second place as far as rating is concerned. I try to be accurate but the gap of at least 11 points between Topalov and the numbers three is significant enough to warrant that:) Do you happen to know how many points the others are expected to score?

Feb-13-08		SwitchingQuylthulg: <lostemperor: Do you happen to know how many points the others are expected to score?> It varies (though only very slightly) depending on the method used; namely 1) whether you count, say, Topalov's "expected performance" as a result equal to a TPR of 2767.6 or a performance that causes no change to his rating (I've gone with the latter, as it's simpler, took me less effort and is more in the line with the approach typically adopted by me and <frogbert>) and 2) what you do with those 1/10ths of a point shown on the <frogbert> list (i.e. whether you count Topalov as 2767, 2768 or 2767.6) Using the "no rating change" approach and the "accurate ratings" (type 2767.6) you come out with this: Anand 7.80/14 Topalov 7.22/14 Shirov 6.98/14 Leko 6.94/14 Aronian 6.88/14 Carlsen 6.86/14 Radjabov 6.72/14 Ivanchuk 6.60/14

Feb-13-08		lostemperor: This gives me some precise insight on the relation between ratings and scores. Thanks. I think the ELO rankings you suggested, based on frogbert's post, now adopted, is sufficiently accurate (into 1/100 of a point:))

Feb-14-08		lostemperor: I have thought of taking the amount of games order in the database for <EXPERIENCE> and <YOUTH>. This corresponds a lot with age order though. Only a slight difference at the top of experience since Shirov has slightly more games in this database than Ivanchuk and Anand has slightly most games of all. So I leave it to age order (and reverse age order at YOUTH) I've put these two pseudo-participants in the Corus prediction results. and YOUTH exceeds EXPERIENCE by 22 points (at shared 15th place, 93 points). EXPERIENCE finished last.

Feb-14-08		ASKALTAMAN: Don't forgot the motivation factor that i mentioned!! be carefull <Magnus Carlsen: a step away from entering the top 10 for the first time> he will fight for this!!

Feb-14-08		lostemperor: <ASKALTAMAN> agree, though I can't measure motivation :). I think Carlsen will fight but not to be in the top 10. He just fight every game but so does anyone else. Especially after the Corus results this Linares will be heavily contested I think. Give or take a few short draws also Leko will be highly motivated:)

Feb-14-08		lostemperor: Motivation ranking IMHO: 1. Radjabov 2. Shirov 3. Topalov 3. Ivanchuk 3. Aronian 3. Leko 3. Carlsen 3. Anand :)

Feb-14-08		Dim Weasel: Linares predictions: 1. Topalov 2. Radjabov 3. Carlsen 4. Anand 5. Aronian 6. Ivanchuk 7. Leko 8. Shirov

Feb-14-08		iron maiden: 1. Topalov +2 2. Carlsen +1 3. Anand +1 4. Aronian 0 5. Radjabov 0 6. Leko 0 7. Shirov -1 8. Ivanchuk -3

Feb-15-08		cromat: My predictions: 1. Anand 2. Aronian 3. Carlsen 4. Topalov 5. Ivanchuk 6. Radjabov 7. Shirov 8. Leko

Feb-15-08		ahmadov: <lostemperor> Thanks for the links you posted on my forum. I opened them and watched some parts of the videos... I hope to watch them comepletely after work...

Feb-15-08		ahmadov: I wonder what she says when she looks at Heydar Aliyev's monument :-) By the way, she is in Ganja, the second largest city, when she looks at the monument, not in Baku...

Feb-15-08		stefan1967: 1. Topalov 2. Anand 3. Aronian 4. Radjabov 5. Carlsen 6. Leko 7. Ivanchuk 8. Shirov

Feb-15-08		lostemperor: <ahmadov> I know Heydar Aliyev's monument is in Ganja. I don't understand Azeri but I do Dutch:) What she sai at the monument I will put at your forum. This is a prediction forum :)

Feb-15-08		just a kid: 1.Radjabov 2.Anand 3.Carlsen 4.Topalov 5.Aronian 6.Shirov 7.Ivanchuk 8.Leko

Feb-15-08		amadeus: Morelia-Linares prediction: 1. Anand 2. Topalov 3. Aronian 4. Carlsen 5. Ivanchuk 6. Radjabov 7. Leko 8. Shirov

Feb-15-08		acirce: 1. Anand 2. Aronian 3. Topalov 4. Carlsen 5. Lékó 6. Radjabov 7. Ivanchuk 8. Shirov

Feb-15-08		Youjoin: 1. Radjabov 2. Anand 3. Aronian 4. Carlsen 5. Ivanchuk 6. Topalov 7. Lékó 8. Shirov

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