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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 68 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: LOL yourang!
Jan-21-09  Ragh: <How many PLIES did Kasparov once claimed he thinks during a chessgame in general. >

<lostemperor> Lets say the answer he said is X. Now, its hard to believe that he always thinks X moves ahead no matter who the opponent is nor how prestigious the tournament is. Lets take 3 scenarios:

1) when he is playing a 2700 player like Anand in Linares. 2) when playing a 2300 rated player in Olympiad.
3) when he is playing a 1900 player in a simul exhibition.

You have to agree that X1 > X2 > X3

Not only that, X1(Anand) >= X1(Adams)

There's just so much of variance to this claim of what X could be. It also cannot be ruled out that his answer of what X is, might have been to fend off a pestering journalist, since we know that this question irritates Kasparov a lot. :)

Having said all that, my guess for X is 12.

Jan-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Ragh> Of course you're right. Kasparov also said it depends on the position. He said there is no answer. We all know this as chess players that it depends on the position.

However in a tournament in the 90s, Kasparov said how deep he thinks. Probably he forgot that it irritates him to do so. It was after a game he won. He didn't mention the positions. It must be of course a 'normal' critical position which usually occurs 3 or 4 times during a game. I'm sure he doesn't think in the opening and in easy replies.

I understand the confusion but I have you now for 12 moves:)

Jan-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Maybe this may make things clearer: Kasparov was comparing himself with the computers of those days (mid 90s) and said how deep he himself thinks in general terms (;
Jan-21-09  amadeus: 10 plies seems a good guess to me.
Jan-21-09  YouRang: <So I record 7 PLIES <erebdraug> (right?), 9 PLIES <yourang>. >

For the record: When I answered 9, I was thinking in terms of *moves* (which is how the question was posed). That would equate to 18 plies. :-)

Jan-22-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Question:<How many plies does a top chess player, Garry Kasparov, think in advance?>

Kasparov was working intensively with the top computers, in preparation for his match with IBM supercomputer. Those computers can all calculate at certain plies (one move for one colour). Can Kasparov think as deep as those processors, deeper perhaps or does he rely more on his intuition.

I have 7, 10, 12 and 18 plies and will hold this question untill the next restday. In case <YouRang> doesn't come up with something complicated, there is still something to chew about!:)

Jan-22-09  heuristic: ply depth is misleading as a metric because not all plys are calculated to the same depth.

I thought that calculating prowess with computers is measured by ply depth; but with humans; you use "chunks" stored in the brain.

like software, GMs use a similar min-max tree traversal; but GMs do evaluations by retriving chunks from their brain. this allows them to discard nearly all tree branches.

that's how a GM plays simuls; they rely on their speed in chunk retrival, not calculation. The major difference in chess skills is due to the number of stored chunks and the ability to access them.

Jan-22-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <heuristic> I use ply because there was confusion with the word move. Many count one move as two plies.

A GM indeed evaluates like you said. It is impossible to calculate millions of moves. However Kasparov has compared his depth to the computer's depth in terms of plies! He was specific about it. Not that he calculate millions of moves but selectively he will come to a certain depth of several moves or plies in a human way.

Jan-22-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Now I wonder if this question is ever going to be solved. It looks like there is too little interest on how deep Kasparov claimed to think :)
Jan-22-09  heuristic: i agree.
to me, it would have been way cooler if Kasparov had mentioned both ply depth calculated and number of chunks accessed! but we are at a very early stage in being able to measure brain activity and usage; and the day when a GM provides both data is in the far future.
Jan-22-09  NakoSonorense: <How many plies does a top chess player ... think in advance?>

I'll answer that when I become a top chess player.

But for now, I can say how many plies a patzer like me thinks in advance: 1, maybe 2 if I'm inspired.

Jan-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 5 UDATES: Karjakin won to take sole lead. Van Wely, Dominguez and Aronian also won.

CORUS standings:
1. S. Karjakin 3½
2. L. Aronian
2. Kamsky
2. Dominguez
2. Smeets 3
6. M. Carlsen
6. van Wely
6. Radjabov
6. Movsesian 2½
10. D. Stellwagen
10. Ivanchuk
10. Adams
10. Wang 2
14. A. Morozevich

PREDICTIONS standings after 5 rounds:

Maximum score: 101

Score,UserID
41,Ragh
39,SwitchingQuylthulg
39,YouRang
37,DCP23
35,suenteus po 147
33,Appaz
33,chancho
33,Chnebelgrind
33,NakoSonorense
32,cu8sfan
31,armenoid
31,CHESSBOOKIE
31,lostemperor
29,yalie
27,capybara
27,chessmoron
27,kellmano
27,OhioChessFan
27,rogge
25,iron maiden
25,nimh
25,TheGladiatres
24,amadeus
23,Aurora
23,percyblakeney
23,positionalgenius
22,ELO
22,imag
21,Robin01

<Ragh> leading the roller coaster!

Jan-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <NakoSonorense> you probably play a lot of one minute games. I think 0 ply when I do that!;)

But this is an interesting question also how deep do each of us think in a critiacl position. I know I usually don't count it. Once I did. I think it was 9 or 10 plies of 40 minutes of thought orso. This must be a record since I don't usually think that deep!

But now that you mentioned it Nako, it so happens that I made a comment on the Corus A page on Karjakin vs Stellwagen, 2009 14. Bc5! I saw a forced sequence pretty quickly but likely flawed 14.. Bxb2 15 Kxb2 Nc4+ 16 Bxc4 bxc4 17 Bd6 Qb7 18 Bxb8 Qxb8 and white knight is pinned. That is 9 plies of flawed thinking I did in 30 seconds orso:) You can see that the last four plies was 'forced' too what make things easier to see.

A kibitzer after me saw one ply deeper <jacqueslaumone: <after 14. Bc5 14.. Bxb2 15 Kxb2 Nc4+ 16 Bxc4 bxc4 17 Bd6 Qb7 18 Bxb8 Qxb8 and white knight is pinned> Maybe White can play 19 Qc5 at the end of this line, to prevent castling & attack the h5 Knight> Oops, I did not see that and think he's right. Stellwagen played 14 ... d5 what is well thought and probably the most solid and correct reply!

Jan-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <heuristic> did you see the documentary with Susan Polgar about how chess GMs think. When playing a blitz game GMs hardly seem to think. Many here, experienced amateurs who play a lot of blitz games also know this. This is probably the chunks you were talking about where GMs take information out.

They start exploring the brain. It seems that recognising chess positions is like face recognition. They scanned Susan's brain and found the back part, what is also use for face recognition is active also in her recognising chess positions. We recognise faces in a split second. This way GMs recognise chess positions also.

Of course in serious chess, it can take half an hour or more to calculate concrete variations deeply.

Jan-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Is it me or does <Ragh> move up in the prediction list everytime Morozevich loses :p
Jan-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 6 UPDATES: An exciting round again: Movsesian, Adams and Radjabov won. 1. Karjakin 4
2. Aronian
2. Dominguez
2. Smeets
2. Radjabov
2. Movsesian 3½
7. Carlsen
7. van Wely
7. Kamsky
7. Adams 3
11. Stellwagen
11. Ivanchuk 2½
13. Wang 2
14. Morozevich 1½

PREDICTIONS STANDINGS after 6 rounds:
Maximum score: 101

<suenteus po 147> and <SwitchingQuylthulg> leading. <lostemperor> and <Ragh> on medal positions. Looking at the course of the tournament so far and 7 rounds to go there is not much to say yet!:)

Score,UserID
40,suenteus po 147
40,SwitchingQuylthulg
34,lostemperor
34,Ragh
32,Chnebelgrind
32,yalie
28,DCP23
28,NakoSonorense
28,nimh
28,rogge
27,amadeus
26,Appaz
26,armenoid
26,capybara
26,chancho
26, CHESSBOOKIE
26,iron maiden
26,percyblakeney
25,imag
24,chessmoron
24,OhioChessFan
24,positionalgenius
24,TheGladiatres
24,YouRang
22,Robin01
21,cu8sfan
21,ELO
20,Aurora
20,kellmano

Jan-23-09  Ragh: <lostemperor: Is it me or does <Ragh> move up in the prediction list everytime Morozevich loses :p>

Round 6 contradicts this statement :)

Since I was already at the top, there is no way to go up but go back to the bottom of the table.. a la pendulum clock.

Jan-23-09  Ragh: On second thoughts, probably I need to think a ply deeper on my predictions and re-post them here..
Jan-24-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Round 6 contradicts this statement :)> Round 6 doesn't contradict that statement. Morozevich was 14th and even though he lost he remained 14th:)

Jan-24-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Any hope of seeing the square ranker standings some round soon?
Jan-24-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Switch> your wish is my command:)

SQUARE RANKER
Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 819

Score,UserID
436,suenteus po 147
420,SwitchingQuylthulg
348,lostemperor
336,Chnebelgrind
326,Ragh
318,yalie
286,armenoid
276,capybara
270,Appaz
258,DCP23
258,rogge
254,percyblakeney
247,imag
246,chancho
244,CHESSBOOKIE
244,iron maiden
236,nimh
236,OhioChessFan
234,YouRang
224,NakoSonorense
223,amadeus
223,cu8sfan
196,TheGladiatres
188,chessmoron
188,Robin01
182,positionalgenius
177,ELO
164,kellmano
160,Aurora

Jan-24-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 7 UPDATES:

Movsesian and Morozevich won(!) Ivanchuk and Smeets lost(!)

Corus standings
1. S. Karjakin
1. Movsesian 4½
3. L. Aronian
3. Dominguez
3. Radjabov 4
6. M. Carlsen
6. van Wely
6. Kamsky
6. Adams
6. Smeets 3½
11. D. Stellwagen 3
12. V. Ivanchuk
12. Morozevich
12. Wang 2½

PREDICTION STANDINGS "halfway":

Score,UserID
46,suenteus po 147
42,SwitchingQuylthulg
40,lostemperor
40,Ragh
38,DCP23
38,yalie
34,Chnebelgrind
34,nimh
32,chancho
32,CHESSBOOKIE
32,NakoSonorense
32,percyblakeney
32,rogge
32,YouRang
31,amadeus
31,imag
30,Appaz
30,armenoid
30,capybara
30,iron maiden
30,positionalgenius
28,OhioChessFan
28,Robin01
28,TheGladiatres
27,cu8sfan
27,ELO
26,Aurora
26,chessmoron
26,kellmano

Jan-24-09  Ragh: <Round 6 doesn't contradict that statement. Morozevich was 14th and even though he lost he remained 14th> I disagree. Since he lost, that still contradicts the statement. The statement doesn't mention about his standing, only his win/loss. Let start a debate now ;-)
Jan-25-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: You're not a very easy person are you <Ragh>:)
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