User Profile: lostemperor

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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25

♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>
Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12
Format example to post your predictions
1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca
Good Luck!
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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:
For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).
In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).
The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.
Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.
The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!
Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.
Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.
Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!
or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>
Enjoy!
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<HALL <OF> FAME>
WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg
~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw
~~~~~~
♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~
♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus
~~~~
♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa
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♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM
*may be incomplete
♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze
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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames [more...]

   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum

lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!

   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum

lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.

   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum

lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn

   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024)

lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov

   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023)

lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖

   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023)

lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖

indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 70 OF 285 · Later Kibitzing>
Jan-31-09		lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER Squared deviation deducted: Maximum score: 819 Score,UserID 556,SwitchingQuylthulg 544,suenteus po 147 478,Chnebelgrind 472,lostemperor 472,Ragh 464,yalie 450,armenoid 436,OhioChessFan 434,CHESSBOOKIE 434,rogge 426,Appaz 418,iron maiden 405,cu8sfan 404,capybara 398,chancho 392,percyblakeney 383,imag 380,nimh 379,amadeus 378,TheGladiatres 378,YouRang 367,ELO 362,DCP23 330,Aurora 328,NakoSonorense 322,kellmano 320,chessmoron 310,positionalgenius 308,Robin01

Jan-31-09		lostemperor: As you can see with the differences getting small now, the quest for Gold, Silver and Bronze will only be decided tomorrow since all medals are still for grabs..

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: CORUS FINAL UPDATE: Karjakin, Morozevich and Wang beat Dominguez, Ivanchuk and Carlsen respectively! It was a pretty bizarre tournament! CORUS STANDINGS: 1. Karjakin 8 2. Aronian 2. Radjabov 2. Movsesian 7½ 5. M. Carlsen 5. Dominguez 7 7. G. Kamsky 6½ 8. L. van Wely 8. Smeets 8. Wang 6 11. D. Stellwagen 11. Ivanchuk 11. Adams 11. Morozevich 5½

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: ~~~ <PREDICTION GAME STANDINGS CORUS 2009> Winner is <SwitchingQuylthulg>!! <Ragh> and <suenteus po 147> shared 2nd place! Score evaluation method: ABSOLUTE Maximum score: 101 Score,UserID ♔48,SwitchingQuylthulg ♕46,Ragh ♕46,suenteus po 147 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 54,Chnebelgrind 50,armenoid 50,lostemperor 48,Appaz 48,CHESSBOOKIE 48,NakoSonorense 48,rogge 48,yalie 46,chancho 46,chessmoron 46,OhioChessFan 46,YouRang 45,cu8sfan 44,DCP23 44,iron maiden 44,nimh 43,amadeus 42,Aurora 42,capybara 42,percyblakeney 42,TheGladiatres 41,ELO 41,imag 40,kellmano 40,positionalgenius 38,Robin01 ♔ Gold ♕ Silver ♖ Bronze

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: <SQUARE RANKER> <suenteus po 147> takes the Gold here!! <SwithcingQuylthulg> is 2nd and <Ragh> 3rd! score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 819 Rank,Score,UserID ♔646,suenteus po 147 ♕606,SwitchingQuylthulg ♖582,Ragh ~~~~~~~~~~~~ 568,Chnebelgrind 558,yalie 552,lostemperor 544,armenoid 544,OhioChessFan 513,cu8sfan 510,iron maiden 504,chancho 502,capybara 500,percyblakeney 498,Appaz 492,CHESSBOOKIE 490,nimh 490,rogge 486,chessmoron 485,imag 482,DCP23 478,YouRang 472,NakoSonorense 471,amadeus 462,Aurora 458,TheGladiatres 439,ELO 438,positionalgenius 430,Robin01 410,kellmano

Feb-01-09		Ragh: <lostemperor> - <PREDICTION GAME STANDINGS CORUS 2009> <Winner is <SwitchingQuylthulg>!! <Ragh> and <suenteus po 147> shared 2nd place!Score,UserID ♔48,SwitchingQuylthulg ♕46,Ragh ♕46,suenteus po 147 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 54,Chnebelgrind 50,armenoid > Perhaps, you meant 58,56,56 in the scores?! A second prize and a third prize, not bad. I will be off to a real bookie once I receive my prize money check :) Well, thanks for organizing the contest.

Feb-01-09		YouRang: Thanks <lostemperor>. I see that my prediction performance in your contest, although mediocre, was at least better than my I did in my own contest. :-\ Okay, let's see what I did wrong... <Prediction - actual> 1.Carlsen - 5. not terrible 2.Morzevich - 11. could've been worse, ...barely 3.Aronian - 2! you can't lose 'em all 4.Kamsky - not bad 5.Dominguez - 5! good 6.Radjabov - 2. ok, not great 7.Yue - 8. ok 8.Ivanchuk - 11. can't believe I OVERestimated chuk 9.Karjakin - 1. sorry, karjak 10.ADAMS - 11. ok 11.Movessian - 2. screw up 12.Stellwagen - 11. ok 13.Smeets - 8. phfft 14.Van Wely - 8. is anyone still reading this? why??

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: Yes indeed <Ragh>! I forgot to give the 10 point bonus to the software there. Even though the Corus standings were surprising, everyone has a plus score even without bonus, where that was different sometimes in the past! :)

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: <YouRang> strangely you almost always do better here! I on the other hand used to do better in your contest. Now I finished last in your Betting Ranker where I used to finish fourth more than once there! Bizarre:)

Feb-01-09		lostemperor: Here the Surprise players of Corus: <Movsesian> became the most surprising player, with <Karjakin> second and <Ivanchuk> and <Morozevich> third. Deviations per player: Deviation,Player 214,Movsesian 200,Karjakin 187,Ivanchuk 187,Morozevich 158,Smeets 116,Dominguez 95,Carlsen 92,Van Wely 80,Adams 69,Wang Yue 61,Stelwagen 59,Kamsky 47,Radjabov 28,Aronian Predictions on Ivanchuk deviated more than Morozevich if squared.

Feb-01-09		suenteus po 147: A silver and a gold? Awesome! I'm not sure how the square ranker works, but I'll take it anyway :)

Feb-02-09		lostemperor: Here the correction of the points in the absolute ranker (as pointed out): Score,UserID ♔58,SwitchingQuylthulg ♕56,Ragh ♕56,suenteus po 147 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 54,Chnebelgrind 50,armenoid 50,lostemperor 48,Appaz 48,CHESSBOOKIE 48,NakoSonorense 48,rogge 48,yalie 46,chancho 46,chessmoron 46,OhioChessFan 46,YouRang 45,cu8sfan 44,DCP23 44,iron maiden 44,nimh 43,amadeus 42,Aurora 42,capybara 42,percyblakeney 42,TheGladiatres 41,ELO 41,imag 40,kellmano 40,positionalgenius 38,Robin01

Feb-02-09		lostemperor: <suenteus po> in the <SQUARE RANKER> the deviations of your predictions with the actual standings is squared. Take Karjakin for instance. You put him at 5 (what is excellent since his rating was 11th!). Karjakin became first, so the difference/deviation with your prediction is 4. In the <ABSOLUTE RAKER> 4 points is deducted form the arbitrary maximum of 101 here. In the square ranker, your deviation of 4 is squared to 16 and deducted from the maximum points (819). If you had put Karjakin at 6 that would have deducted 25 points (square 5)! It short the square ranker, squared magnify your deviations. So yes I would definitely take the prize if I were you:)

Feb-02-09		lostemperor: Predictions statistics: AveragePrediction,Player,HighestPrediction,Lowes- tPrediction 1.79,Carlsen,1,6 2.34,Aronian,1,9 3.21,Radjabov,1,6 4.55,Ivanchuk,1,10 4.55,Morozevich,1,9 5.62,Wang Yue,2,8 7.72,Kamsky,1,12 7.90,Karjakin,3,11 8.31,Adams,5,12 8.86,Dominguez,4,14 9.38,Movsesian,5,12 11.17,Van Wely,8,14 12.97,Stelwagen,9,14 13.45,Smeets,12,14

Feb-02-09		lostemperor: <suenteus po 147> showed a remarkable come back after Biel last year to be the first person to reach three crowns after <WannaBe>! <SwitchingQuylThulg> probably surprised himself!:)

Feb-02-09		lostemperor: Next prediction tournament: LINARES 2009 Participants: 1. Anand 2. Carlsen 3. Ivanchuk 4. Aronian 5. Radjabov 6. Wang Yue 7. Grischuk 8. Dominguez

Feb-02-09		NakoSonorense: <prediction - actual> -Morozevich <1 - 11> Thought this was Moro's tourney! Gotta stop reading slomarko :) -Aronian <2 - 2> Not bad... -Ivanchuk <3 - 11> This guy is unpredicable, literally -Radjabov <4 - 2> Not bad either: 2^2=4 -Karjakin <5 - 1> Did better than Carlsen, which is what I based my prediction on -Carlsen <6 - 5> Eh, close enough -Wang Yue <7 - 8> Close enough too -Kamsky <8 - 7> Maybe I should've swapped Yue and Kamsky... -Dominguez <9 - 5> Did much better than everybody thought -Adams <10 - 11> Typical Adams... -van Wely <11 - 8> A little better than he usually does -Movsesian <12 - 2> I didn't even know this guy! -Smeets <13 - 8> Did ok... -Stellwagen <14 - 11> Last place, just like I predicted! Thanks for running the contest, <lostemperor>. I seem to be cursed here... I never win! :(

Feb-02-09		Ragh: LINARES 2009 Prediction: 1. Anand 2. Carlsen 3. Radjabov 4. Aronian 5. Dominguez 6. Wang Yue 7. Ivanchuk 8. Grischuk

Feb-02-09		chancho: Linares 2009: 1.Aronian 2.Anand 3.Radjabov 4.Carlsen 5.Grischuk 6.Ivanchuk 7.Dominguez 8.Wang Yue

Feb-02-09		rogge: Let's try again. Linares: 1. Anand 2. Carlsen 3. Aronian 4. Radjabov 5. Dominguez 6. Wang Yue 7. Ivanchuk 8. Grischuk But you never know when <Ivanchuk Elevator> is going up again...

Feb-02-09		Ragh: < rogge> Did you just effortlessly copied over my prediction except for making a small switch on positions 3 and 4. Good luck you assured yourself of at least the Silver medal. :)

Feb-02-09		rogge: <Ragh> You must be a wise man :)

Feb-02-09		SwitchingQuylthulg: Linares predictions: 1. Anand 2. Radjabov 3. Aronian 4. Carlsen 5. Dominguez 6. Wang Yue 6. Ivanchuk 6. Grischuk

Feb-02-09		percyblakeney: Linares: 1. Radjabov 2. Anand 3. Carlsen 4. Aronian 5. Ivanchuk 6. Dominguez 7. Wang Yue 8. Grischuk

Feb-02-09		rogge: Lost your faith in Aronian, <percy>?

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