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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 71 OF 285 ·
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| Feb-02-09 | | percyblakeney: <rogge> A bit, after those last rounds in Corus :-) Radjabov tends to perform best against strong opponents (-1 against the Dutch 2600 players in Corus, but +3 against the 2700+ opponents), so I picked him as surprise winner this time. |
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| Feb-02-09 | | rogge: Well, good luck :) |
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| Feb-03-09 | | just a kid: 1.Aronian
2.Anand
3.Ivanchuk
4.Carlsen
5.Dominguez
6.Radjabov
7.Grischuk
8.Wang Yue |
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| Feb-03-09 | | chessmoron: 1.Anand
2.Aronian
3.Carlsen
4.Ivanchuk
5.Wang Yue
6.Radjabov
7.Grischuk
8.Dominguez |
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| Feb-04-09 | | suenteus po 147: My prediction for the final standings:
1. Radjabov
1. Anand
3. Carlsen
3. Aronian
5. Grischuk
6. Dominguez
6. Wang Yue
8. Ivanchuk |
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| Feb-04-09 | | YouRang: The shocking final standings will be:
1. Aronian
2. Anand
3. Grischuk
4. Carlsen
5. Dominguez
6. Radjabov
7. Ivanchuk
8. Yue
:-o |
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| Feb-04-09 | | iron maiden: 1. Carlsen
2. Anand
3. Aronian
4. Radjabov
5. Dominguez
6. Grischuk
7. Wang Yue
8. Ivanchuk |
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| Feb-04-09 | | percyblakeney: Anand and Ivanchuk both have the chance to win a fourth, unshared Linares title this year. They are the only players except Kasparov to have been sole winners of Linares more than once (on points, without tiebreak). A fourth Linares title wouldn't exactly look bad on the CV. |
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Feb-05-09
 | | lostemperor: Wrapping up Corus: ♗♘♙-Awards
♗-Best/Correct prediction on 1st surprise player
♘ Best/Correct prediction on 2nd surprise player
♙ Best/Correct prediction on 3rd surprise player
Biggest upset <MOVSESIAN>. tournament standing 2-4, performed even better than his <ELO> ranking 5! Best predictor on biggest surpise MOVSESIAN:
♗<OhioChessFan> 5-7 (average 6). He has the same as <CHESSBOOKIE> 6 ♘<iron maiden> 7
♘<TheGladiatres> 7 virtual contestants ELO and CHESSBOOKIE will get an honourary ♗-award also. |
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Feb-05-09
| | lostemperor: ♘ Best/Correct prediction on 2nd surprise player <KARJAKIN> tournament standing 1! ♘<Ragh>3(!)
♙<Chnebelgrind>
♙<NakoSonorense>
♙<suenteus po 147> 5 |
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Feb-05-09
| | lostemperor: ♙ Best/Correct prediction on 3rd surprise player <IVANCHUK> tournament standing 11-14 IVANCHUK was an even bigger negative upset than Morozevich, who will be counted also, on square tie-breaker. ♙<DCP23> 9-11 (average 10) ♙ <suenteus po 147> 10 |
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Feb-05-09
| | lostemperor: ♙ Best/Correct prediction on 3rd surprise player <MOROZEVICH> tournament standing 11-14 ♙ <suenteus po 147> 9 |
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Feb-05-09
| | lostemperor: Upsets' statics:
<KARJAKIN>: rated 11, standing 1, Bookie game betting odds 59:1! <MOVSESIAN> rated 5, standing 2-4, odds 15:1 <MOROZEVICH> rated 3, standing 11-14, odds 7:1 <IVANCHUK> rated 1, standing 11-14, odds, 4:1 |
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| Feb-06-09 | | Where is my mind: Linares prediction:
1.Anand
2.Carlsen
3.Aronian
4.Ivanchuk
5.Radjabov
6.Wang Yue
7.Grischuk
8.Dominguez |
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| Feb-07-09 | | YuanTi: Prediction:
1. Anand
2. Carlsen
2. Radjabov
4. Aronian
5. Grischuk
5. Ivanchuk
7. Dominguez
8. Wang Yue |
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| Feb-08-09 | | MrMelad: Prediction
1. Anand
2. Carlsen
2. Radjabov
4. Aronian
4. Dominguez
4. Ivanchuk
7. Wang Yue
8. Grischuk |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Is it me but the less players, the more difficult it seems to predict!! Predictions:
1. Anand
2. Aronian
3. Carlsen
4. Radjabov
5. Ivanchuk
6. Grischuk
6. Dominguez
6. Wang Yue |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Does someone know the updated ratings of the Linares players after Corus? |
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Feb-10-09
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <frogbert>'s live ratings: Anand 2791
Carlsen 2764
Radjabov 2763
Aronian 2758
Ivanchuk 2741
Wang Yue 2739
Grischuk 2733
Dominguez 2722
Results indicated by the most simple calculation method (FIDE probability table): 1. Anand 7.90/14
2. Carlsen 7.26/14
2. Radjabov 7.26/14
4. Aronian 7.12/14
4. Ivanchuk 6.78/14
6. Wang Yue 6.74/14
6. Grischuk 6.62/14
6. Dominguez 6.32/14
(Of course, one could look at the differences a bit, instead of merely rounding to the nearest half point.) |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Thanks <Switch>! So here the rating prediction expectations according to <ELO> (updated): 1. Anand 2791
2. Carlsen 2764
2. Radjabov 2763
4. Aronian 2758
5. Ivanchuk 2741
5. Wang Yue 2739
7. Grischuk 2733
8. Dominguez 2722
If I'm correct here?! |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Predictions statistics (so far): <Biggest predictions deviations to the rating expectations>! If the Linares 2009 outcome will be exactly like the rating expectations accordingto ELO this will be the results: Maximum score: 38 (28 CONMAN + 10 bonus)
Score,UserID
38,ELO
32,Where is my mind
32,YuanTi
30,chessmoron
30,MrMelad
30,percyblakeney
30,Ragh
29,lostemperor
29,SwitchingQuylthulg
28,rogge
27,suenteus po 147
24,chancho
24,iron maiden
20,just a kid
16,YouRang
Meaning <YouRang> tops the list as far as unorthodox predictions is concerned! Second is <just a kid> followed by <iron maiden> and <chancho>:) |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Oh wait I made a mistake! I now see what <SwitchingQuylthulg> meant. correction follows now... |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: <(Of course, one could look at the differences a bit, instead of merely rounding to the nearest half point.)> Right, I will do this and keep it the way I did, unless there is a serious flaw in it?! |
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Feb-10-09
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: Well, (if I judged myself not satisfied with the unadulterated version), I personally would have gone 1,2,2,2,5,5,5,8 since Aronian is only a few rating points (and expected centipoints) behind Carlsen/Radja, ditto Grischuk with Ivanchuk/Wang. But this is your contest :) |
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Feb-10-09
| | lostemperor: Yes, <Switch> I was thinking of changing Aronian also to shared 2nd. I will follow your advice! <ELO> predictions (expectations): 1. Anand 2791
2. Carlsen 2764
2. Radjabov 2763
2. Aronian 2758
5. Ivanchuk 2741
5. Wang Yue 2739
5. Grischuk 2733
8. Dominguez 2722 |
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