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Mar-01-09
 | | lostemperor: PREDICTION GAME STANDINGS 8
Maximum score: 38
Score,UserID
27,positionalgenius
25,just a kid
25,YouRang
~~~~~~~~
24,WannaBe
23,cromat
22,CHESSBOOKIE
22,lostemperor
21,chancho
21,chessmoron
21,EvigOptimist
21,nimh
21,Robin01
21,UNIBET
20,amadeus
19,Aurora
19,capybara
19,notyetagm
19,TheGladiatres
19,Where is my mind
19,yalie
18,OhioChessFan
18,SwitchingQuylthulg
17,DCP23
17,ELO
17,iron maiden
17,kellmano
17,NakoSonorense
17,percyblakeney
17,YuanTi
16,suenteus po 147
15,ahmadov
15,imag
15,MrMelad
15,rogge
13,Ragh |
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Mar-01-09
| | lostemperor: Sorry <Ragh> every predictor can hit bottom sometime:) |
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Mar-01-09
| | lostemperor: Deviations per player:
272,Grischuk
179,Radjabov
175,Ivanchuk
133,Anand
86,Carlsen
59,Dominguez
57,Aronian
49,Wang Yue |
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Mar-01-09
| | lostemperor: Oh wait, all deviations should be about half of what I posted because of a wrong input of me! |
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Mar-02-09
| | lostemperor: ROUND 10 LINARES:
Ivanchuk - Radjabov 1/2
Yue - Grischuk 1/2
Dominguez - Carlsen 0-1
Aronian - Anand 1/2
1.Grischuk 6
2.Ivanchuk
2.Aronian 5
2.Carlsen 5
5.Anand 4.5
6.Radjabov 3.5
6.Wang Yue 3.5
6.Dominguez 3.5 |
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Mar-02-09
| | lostemperor: PREDICTION GAME STANDINGS
It is getting tense..
Absolute
Maximum score: 38
Score,UserID
25,WannaBe
24,EvigOptimist
24,positionalgenius
~~~~~~~~~~
23,lostemperor
22,chessmoron
22,cromat
22,just a kid
22,nimh
22,Robin01
22,TheGladiatres
22,UNIBET
22,Where is my mind
22,YouRang
21,CHESSBOOKIE
21,OhioChessFan
20,capybara
20,ELO
20,notyetagm
20,yalie
19,amadeus
18,Aurora
18,chancho
18,DCP23
18,iron maiden
18,rogge
18,YuanTi
17,suenteus po 147
17,SwitchingQuylthulg
16,ahmadov
16,imag
16,MrMelad
16,percyblakeney
16,Ragh
14,kellmano
14,NakoSonorense |
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Mar-02-09
| | lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 9
Maximum score: 140
Score,UserID
105,WannaBe
104,positionalgenius
96,EvigOptimist
96,Robin01
~~~~~~~~
92,YouRang
88,cromat
86,UNIBET
85,lostemperor
84,just a kid
84,nimh
84,yalie
82,TheGladiatres
80,chancho
78,chessmoron
78,ELO
76,DCP23
74,notyetagm
74,YuanTi
70,capybara
67,OhioChessFan
65,amadeus
65,CHESSBOOKIE
62,iron maiden
61,SwitchingQuylthulg
60,kellmano
58,Aurora
54,ahmadov
50,imag
46,MrMelad
46,NakoSonorense
45,suenteus po 147
44,rogge
42,percyblakeney
36,Ragh |
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Mar-02-09
 | | WannaBe: Number 1!! Number 1!!
Who's your Daddy! Dat right, who's your Daddy!!
(Please delete this post, please do not let this post remain, it will come back to haunt me when I run for the Presidency of U.S. of A. And then I'll come up with some lame excuse of being young, stupid, immature, didn't know better... But at least I didn't inhale!!) Thank you. |
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Mar-02-09
| | lostemperor: <WannaBe> if you win Linares 2009, I will put the flag of the United States of America under your name!! ;) |
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Mar-03-09
| | lostemperor: ROUND 10 UPDATE (yesterday was 9 not 10):
If you saw the standings, compared to yesterday's, it was hard to figure out who won, who lost or draw: 1.Grischuk
2.Ivanchuk
3.Anand
3.Aronian
3.Carlsen
6.Radjabov
6.Wang Yue
8.Dominguez
It was:
Radjabov - Aronian 1-0
Anand - Dominguez 1/2
Carlsen - YueWang 0-1!
Grischuk - Ivanchuk 1/2 |
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Mar-03-09
| | lostemperor: PREDICTION STANDINGS 10:
Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 38
<positionalgenius> taking the lead from <WannaBe>!:) Score,UserID
30,positionalgenius
26,chessmoron
26,EvigOptimist
26,Where is my mind
~~~~~~~~
25,WannaBe
24,cromat
24,TheGladiatres
24,yalie
23,lostemperor
22,ahmadov
22,ELO
22,just a kid
22,nimh
22,Robin01
22,UNIBET
22,YouRang
21,CHESSBOOKIE
21,OhioChessFan
20,capybara
20,chancho
20,YuanTi
19,amadeus
19,suenteus po 147
19,SwitchingQuylthulg
18,Aurora
18,iron maiden
18,notyetagm
18,percyblakeney
18,rogge
16,DCPP23
16,imag
16,kellmano
16,MrMelad
16,NakoSonorense
16,Ragh |
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Mar-03-09
| | lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 10:
Maximum score: 140
Score,UserID
120,positionalgenius
115,WannaBe
100,cromat
100,EvigOptimist
100,yalie
~~~~~~~~~~
94,chessmoron
94,Robin01
94,UNIBET
94,Where is my mind
93,lostemperor
92,ELO
92,YouRang
88,chancho
88,TheGladiatres
88,YuanTi
86,nimh
84,just a kid
77,amadeus
74,ahmadov
73,CHESSBOOKIE
71,OhioChessFan
70,capybara
70,DCP23
69,SwitchingQuylthulg
66,notyetagm
60,iron maiden
58,kellmano
56,Aurora
56,NakoSonorense
55,suenteus po 147
52,imag
50,percyblakeney
48,MrMelad
48,rogge
42,Ragh |
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| Mar-03-09 | | rogge: Well, thanks for keeping me away from last place, <Ragh> :) |
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| Mar-03-09 | | Ragh: <rogge> Yes, I remember assuring you of the silver medal for following my predictions lead by undermining Grischuk to the last place in this contest. Now all is left for the emperor to decide how he awards the medals from two different approaches available - the Top-down approach or the Bottom-up approach. They both are equally effective IMO. In fact, the latter has slightly better evaluation according to Rybka. :) |
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Mar-03-09
| | WannaBe: Dang it!! Lost my (first) place!! |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: ROUND 11: All games drawn (of course) .. |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> I finally got your new program running I guess after our exchange of mail. I will post some prediction results according to your new software so you can see if it looks correct to you or if I still did something wrong. It looks correct to me but I will do some random checking by heart. |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: Prediction standings 11 (according to the new CONMAN software of <YouRang>. (Here not the highest standing but the avaerage standing counts): Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 32
Score,UserID
23,positionalgenius
16,chessmoron
16,EvigOptimist
16,WannaBe
16,Where is my mind
15,cromat
15,just a kid
15,TheGladiatres
15,yalie
15,YouRang
14,ahmadov
14,ELO
14,Robin01
13,chancho
13,lostemperor
13,nimh
13,UNIBET
13,YuanTi
12,amadeus
12,CHESSBOOKIE
12,OhioChessFan
12,suenteus po 147
11,capybara
11,DCP23
11,kellmano
11,percyblakeney
9,Aurora
9,iron maiden
9,MrMelad
9,NakoSonorense
9,notyetagm
9,SwitchingQuylthulg
8,imag
8,Ragh
8,rogge |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 11:
Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation
Maximum score: 168
Score,UserID
145,positionalgenius
126,WannaBe
120,cromat
118,EvigOptimist
116,Robin01
115,YouRang
113,yalie
112,chessmoron
112,Where is my mind
109,UNIBET
108,chancho
107,just a kid
106,nimh
105,amadeus
105,YuanTi
104,ELO
102,DCP23
102,lostemperor
102,TheGladiatres
94,kellmano
93,ahmadov
91,capybara
91,CHESSBOOKIE
89,OhioChessFan
85,notyetagm
84,NakoSonorense
82,suenteus po 147
78,iron maiden
74,Aurora
73,MrMelad
71,percyblakeney
68,SwitchingQuylthulg
67,imag
65,rogge
60,Ragh |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: PAIR BATTING RANKER(!):
Earnings,UserID
90.76,positionalgenius
70.18,kellmano
32.27,DCP23
14.18,YouRang
10.71,EvigOptimist
8.76,OhioChessFan
5.31,amadeus
1.70,just a kid
1.35,NakoSonorense
0.53,imag
-1.41,chessmoron
-1.41,Where is my mind
-2.71,Robin01
-2.71,WannaBe
-3.55,cromat
-4.70,suenteus po 147
-4.91,ELO
-5.07,chancho
-5.88,nimh
-6.18,yalie
-8.57,capybara
-8.70,iron maiden
-9.45,ahmadov
-10.26,TheGladiatres
-10.88,UNIBET
-11.59,YuanTi
-12.40,notyetagm
-12.63,CHESSBOOKIE
-12.63,lostemperor
-14.15,Aurora
-15.45,rogge
-16.80,percyblakeney
-16.97,Ragh
-18.26,MrMelad
-18.49,SwitchingQuylthulg |
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Mar-04-09
| | lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$35.00,Anand-below-Grischuk, positionalgenius
$35.00,Anand-below-Ivanchuk, kellmano
$35.00,Aronian-below-Grischuk, positionalgenius
$35.00,Aronian-below-Ivanchuk, kellmano
$17.50,Anand-equal-Aronian, DCP23 + imag
$17.50,Anand-equal-Carlsen, DCP23 + OhioChessFan
$11.67,Grischuk-above-Radjabov, EvigOptimist + positionalgenius + YouRang $8.75,Carlsen-below-Grischuk, amadeus + NakoSonorense + positionalgenius + YouRang $8.75,Carlsen-below-Ivanchuk, amadeus + just a kid + kellmano + NakoSonorense $5.83,Aronian-equal-Carlsen, DCP23 + ELO + kellmano + Robin01 + suenteus po 147 + WannaBe $5.00,Grischuk-above-Ivanchuk, chancho + DCP23 + EvigOptimist + iron maiden + positionalgenius + suenteus po 147 + YouRang $5.00,Ivanchuk-above-Radjabov, capybara + chessmoron + cromat + just a kid + kellmano + nimh + Where is my mind $3.89,Dominguez-below-Wang Yue, ahmadov + chessmoron + ELO + EvigOptimist + OhioChessFan + positionalgenius + TheGladiatres + Where is my mind + yalie $2.33,Dominguez-below-Grischuk, ahmadov + amadeus + chancho + chessmoron + cromat + ELO + EvigOptimist + positionalgenius + Robin01 + suenteus po 147 + WannaBe + Where is my mind + yalie + YouRang + YuanTi $1.75,Grischuk-above-Wang Yue, (20 winners)
$1.52,Aronian-above-Radjabov, (23 winners)
$1.52,Carlsen-above-Radjabov, (23 winners)
$1.52,Dominguez-below-Ivanchuk, (23 winners)
$1.30,Ivanchuk-above-Wang Yue, (27 winners)
$1.17,Dominguez-below-Radjabov, (30 winners)
$1.13,Anand-above-Radjabov, (31 winners)
$1.09,Carlsen-above-Dominguez, (32 winners)
$1.06,Aronian-above-Dominguez, (33 winners)
$1.03,Anand-above-Dominguez, (34 winners)
$1.03,Carlsen-above-Wang Yue, (34 winners)
$1.00,Anand-above-Wang Yue, (35 winners)
$1.00,Aronian-above-Wang Yue, (35 winners)
$0.00,Radjabov-equal-Wang Yue, (0 winners) |
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| Mar-04-09 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> I'm glad to see that you got the new version of CONMAN working. :-) Your results agree with mine, except that your "Pair Betting" results are different. However, the reason is that you've introduced some "pseudo contestants", UNIBET, ELO and CHESSBOOKIE -- and they have each effectively wagered $1 on each pairing, which throws off the winnings a little. It probably doesn't matter too much, since they all correspond to "typical" rankings that will agree with the pairings from several other people. (In my Betting Ranker, I have to eliminate my "pseudo contestants", WHITER/BLACKER/DRAWER/MONKEY, since they could easily predict outcomes that would have a large impact on the Betting Ranker standings. Imagine how mad you would be if you were the only person to predict a certain outcome, but your jackpot got cut to one third because it was also predicted by BLACKER and MONKEY :-) BTW, I just noticed that I forgot to put a '$' sign on the pair betting report. I'll fix that and send you revised software. Interestingly, I think the "Pair Betting" results help identify why certain people are successful in the ranker report. For instance, one can see that <positionalgenius> is doing so well mainly because he uniquely predicted Grischuk to do so well: $35.00,Anand-below-Grischuk, <positionalgenius> $35.00,Aronian-below-Grischuk, <positionalgenius> $11.67,Grischuk-above-Radjabov, EvigOptimist + <positionalgenius> + YouRang $8.75,Carlsen-below-Grischuk, amadeus + NakoSonorense + <positionalgenius> + YouRang He was the *only* one to put Grischuk above Aronian and above Anand (2 jackpots!). Also, he was one of only 3 to put Grischuk above Radjabov, and one of only 4 to put Grischuk above Carlsen. |
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| Mar-04-09 | | YouRang: Also interesting to note that you can do well in the Ranker, but not in the Pair Betting, or vice-versa. For example, <kellmano> isn't doing so good in the Ranker, but he's 2nd in Pair Betting, since he was the only one to put Ivanchuk above both Anand and Aronian -- 2 jackpots! Meanwhile, <Wannabe> is doing well in the Ranker because his predicted standings are pretty good, but not so well in Pair Betting since he hasn't predicted any correct pairing that a number of others didn't also predict. In fact, his biggest payoff is "Aronian-equal-Carlsen", which 6 others also predicted (and is pretty tenuous at that since 'equality' can easily be broken). Anyway, the point is that the Ranker and Pair Betting contests complement eachother nicely, since they can easily produce different winners. :-) |
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Mar-05-09
| | lostemperor: Right <YouRang> I noticed that too! Makes it interesting. I do have a question. Since you left out Pseudo-contestants, do you use two LINSTAND.TXT file where in one you leave out DRAWER etc? |
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| Mar-05-09 | | YouRang: <lostemperor><I do have a question. Since you left out Pseudo-contestants, do you use two LINSTAND.TXT file where in one you leave out DRAWER etc?> No, in my contests, the pseudo-contestants are 'built-in' to the software, and programatically added in to Standard Ranker and 123 Ranker. I can do that because their predictions can be determined automatically (WHITER always predicts 1-0, BLACKER always predicts 0-1, DRAWER always predicts 1/2, and MONKEY predicts based on reproducible 'randomization' of information). It's not so easy in your case, since the software can't automatically "know" what the predictions should be for ELO, CHESSBOOKIE, etc. It might be possible for me to let you specify the pseudo-contestants (and their predictions) a different way (in the YRC file), and then include them automatically in the Ranker report but not the Pair Betting report, if you think that would be better. |
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