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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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♙♙♙

♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 79 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
May-19-09  YouRang: Woo hoo! Go Shirov! :-D
May-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 7 UPDATE

Topalov - Shirov 1/2
Carlsen - Dominguez 1-0
YueRang - Ivanchuk 1/2

Actual standings:
1-2 Carlsen 4.5
1-2 Shirov 4.5
3. Topalov 4
4. Wang Yue 3.5
5. Dominguez 3
6. Ivanchuk 1.5

May-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: MTEL Prediction Game Standings 7

Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 18

Score,UserID
12,Where is my mind
11,rogge
10,OhioChessFan
10,TheGladiatres
9,Aurora
9,cromat
9,ELO
9,firebyrd
9,lostemperor
9,Sicilian Dragon
9,Topista
9,YouRang
8,CHESSBOOKIE
8,SwitchingQuylthulg
7,Ragh
6,amadeus
6,dumbgai
6,Robin01
6,suenteus po 147
4,Chnebelgrind

May-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: The amazing Pair betting:)

Earnings,UserID
22.26,Where is my mind
9.11,SwitchingQuylthulg
7.11,Aurora
3.77,cromat
2.26,rogge
2.26,TheGladiatres
2.26,Topista
1.15,Sicilian Dragon
-0.67,Chnebelgrind
-1.07,ELO
-1.07,OhioChessFan
-2.32,YouRang
-2.89,Ragh
-3.43,amadeus
-4.41,CHESSBOOKIE
-4.41,lostemperor
-7.48,dumbgai
-7.48,firebyrd
-7.48,Robin01
-7.48,suenteus po 147

Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$20.00,Carlsen-equal-Shirov, SwitchingQuylthulg

$20.00,Ivanchuk-below-Wang Yue, Where is my mind

$6.67,Dominguez-above-Ivanchuk, Aurora + Chnebelgrind + cromat

$3.33,Carlsen-above-Topalov, Aurora + Ragh + rogge + Sicilian Dragon + TheGladiatres + Topista

$3.33,Dominguez-below-Wang Yue, amadeus + ELO + Sicilian Dragon + TheGladiatres + Topista + Where is my mind

$3.33,Ivanchuk-below-Shirov, Aurora + cromat + OhioChessFan + rogge + Where is my mind + YouRang

May-21-09  YouRang: Yes, you can see how volatile Pair betting ranker is. Any little change in the tournament standings can cause huge swings in pair betting rankings. :-)
May-21-09  YouRang: At this point, I would say that <Where is my mind> has excellent chances of winning. Unless Ivanchuk wins his last 2 while Yue loses both, he'll keep his <Ivanchuk-below-Wang Yue> jackpot.

Of course, other jackpots could happen, but that one looks pretty solid.

May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: To keep things exciting I will only will give an update only after today's last round. There were developements ..
May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: MTel standings 9:
1. Carlsen
2-3. Shirov
2-3. Topalov
4-5. Wang Yue
4-5. Dominguez
6. Ivanchuk
May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <MTEL TOURNAMENT FINAL STANDINGS>

1. SHIROV 6.5
2. Topalov 6
2. Carlsen 6
4. Wang Yue 4.5
5. Dominguez 4
6. Ivanchuk 3

May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <MTEL PREDICTION GAME 2009 FINAL RESULTS>

Absolute Ranker
Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 18

Winner <Where is my mind>!

Three Silver Medalist <YouRang>, <OhioChessFan>, <rogge>!

Score,UserID
♔12,Where is my mind
♕10,OhioChessFan
♕10,rogge
♕10,YouRang
~~~~~~~~~~
9,cromat
9,ELO
9,lostemperor
9,SwitchingQuylthulg
9,TheGladiatres
8,Aurora
8,CHESSBOOKIE
8,firebyrd
8,Topista
7,amadeus
7,Sicilian Dragon
7,suenteus po 147
6,dumbgai
6,Ragh
6,Robin01
5,Chnebelgrind

May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: MTel Square Ranker 2009

<Where is my mind> also won this! Here no medals awarded because it happens (too) frequent that the winner is the same person as in the Absolute Ranker.

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 70

Score,UserID
62,Where is my mind
57,YouRang
56,OhioChessFan
56,rogge
~~~~~~~~~~
54,cromat
53,ELO
53,lostemperor
53,TheGladiatres
52,SwitchingQuylthulg
50,Aurora
48,Topista
47,CHESSBOOKIE
42,firebyrd
41,Sicilian Dragon
39,suenteus po 147
38,Ragh
35,Chnebelgrind
34,amadeus
33,dumbgai
32,Robin01

May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Pair Betting Ranker:

Here some switches at the top but <Where is my mind> keeps the topspot again followed by <YouRang> and <firebyrd>!

Earnings,UserID
22.26,Where is my mind
17.68,YouRang
12.52,firebyrd
~~~~~~~~
3.77,Aurora
3.77,cromat
-0.67,Chnebelgrind
-1.07,ELO
-1.07,TheGladiatres
-1.07,Topista
-1.07,OhioChessFan
-1.07,rogge
-2.18,Sicilian Dragon
-3.43,amadeus
-4.41,CHESSBOOKIE
-4.41,lostemperor
-6.23,Ragh
-7.48,dumbgai
-7.48,Robin01
-7.48,suenteus po 147
-10.89,SwitchingQuylthulg

Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$20.00,Carlsen-below-Shirov, YouRang

$20.00,Carlsen-equal-Topalov, firebyrd

$20.00,Ivanchuk-below-Wang Yue, Where is my mind

$6.67,Dominguez-above-Ivanchuk, Aurora + Chnebelgrind + cromat

$3.33,Dominguez-below-Wang Yue, amadeus + ELO + Sicilian Dragon + TheGladiatres + Topista + Where is my mind

$3.33,Ivanchuk-below-Shirov, Aurora + cromat + OhioChessFan + rogge + Where is my mind + YouRang

$1.82,Dominguez-below-Shirov, (11 winners)
$1.25,Carlsen-above-Ivanchuk, (16 winners)
$1.25,Shirov-above-Wang Yue, (16 winners)
$1.11,Carlsen-above-Dominguez, (18 winners)
$1.11,Ivanchuk-below-Topalov, (18 winners)
$1.05,Carlsen-above-Wang Yue, (19 winners)
$1.00,Dominguez-below-Topalov, (20 winners)
$1.00,Topalov-above-Wang Yue, (20 winners)
$0.00,Shirov-above-Topalov, (0 winners)

May-23-09  YouRang: Thanks <lostemperor> for running the contest.

Congrats to <Where is my mind> for sweeping first place (dang it) ;-)

Oh well, sweeping 2nd place is pretty good too. My regards to Shirov who made it all possible. :-)

May-23-09  rogge: Thanks for running the show, <emperor>!

I suspect the last round didn't do me any good, but hey, silver ain't bad :)

Congrats, <where is my mind>!

May-23-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: A great comeback after Linares <rogge>! And you were first in the Absolute and Square Ranker after 9 rounds. if only Carlsen hasn't lost today .. :)

You owe it all to yourself <YouRang>. Your prediction on Shirov is the single best surprise player's prediction (still to come)! Of course giving me unexpected silver in your 1-2-3 Ranker also helps;)

Thanks all, it was my pleasure too.

May-24-09  Where is my mind: Thanks for running the contest <lostemperor>. Thanks and Congrats on silver <rogge> and <Yourang> (Carlsen-below-Shirov!).
May-25-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player,squared deviation
61,Shirov.203
51,Ivanchuk.149
27,Wang Yue.43
23,Topalov,31
19,Dominguez,28
18,Carlsen,21
May-25-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Awards for first surprise player <SHIROV>, standing=1, rating=3-4, Betting odds M-Tel Masters: Winner 12:1

♗YouRang (2)
♘OhioChessFan (3)
♘rogge (3)
♘ Where is my mind (3)

May-25-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Awards for second surprise player/upset <IVANCHUK> standing=6, rating=3-4, Betting odds 9:1

♘Aurora (5)
♘cromat (5)
♘Where is my mind (5)

May-25-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Award for third surprise player <WANG YUE>: standing=4, rating=5, betting odds 22:1

♙Where is my mind (4)

Jun-29-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: In July I maybe away for a few days so I won't hold the annual Dortmund tournament. Besides it is now a double round robid tournament so the chance of luck is limited ;-) I will try to join the <Yourang> prediction contest however.
Jun-30-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: 2009 Dortmund 'Guess how Many Moves' Prediction Contest begins July 2. Click on Elvis to join the fun.
Jul-02-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <YouRang> I corrected your standings in the {BNP)-awards surprise player's standings. You are first!;)
Jul-08-09  ahmadov: Hello dear friend!

It was just yesterday I realized that "Girl with a Pearl Earring" was about events taking place in Delft in 1665...

Jul-13-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Hi <ahmadov>. Yes right! Was a long time ago I almost forgot. Time for you to visit the Netherlands again ;)
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