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Jan-01-21
 | | beatgiant: With the new year, it would be a good time to revisit our wunderkinds list. I take the criticism that it can swing wildly every January due to lack of month of birth info. Unfortunately, the FIDE profiles I use for generating these lists do not include the month of birth. So before I do all the laborious calculations, I'll wait a bit to see if any other kibitzer here can suggest a quick fix to the month of birth problem. |
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Jan-07-21
 | | alexmagnus: January:
European Union:
1. Vachier-Lagrave 2784
2. Giri 2764
3. Rapport 2759
4. Duda 2743
5. Topalov 2735
6. Vallejo 2710
7. Wojtaszek 2705
8. Navara 2697
9. Almasi 2687
10. Ragger 2680
Former Soviet Union:
1. Nepomniachtchi 2789
2. Aronian 2781
3. Grischuk 2777
4. Mamedyarov 2770
5. Radjabov 2765
6. Karjakin 2757
7. Kramnik 2753
8. Andreikin 2725
9. Vitiugov 2715
10. Svidler 2714
Former British Empire:
1. Caruana 2823
2. So 2770
3. Dominguez 2758
4. Anand 2753
5. Nakamura 2736
6. Harikrishna 2732
7. Vidit 2726
8. Adams 2716
9. Xiong 2709
10. Sadler 2694
Asia:
1. Ding 2791
2. Wang 2763
3. Anand 2753
4-5. Harikrishna 2732
4-5. Wei 2732
6. Vidit 2726
7-8. Le 2709
7-8. Yu 2709
9. Bu 2705
10. Li 2683
Born later than the world champion:
1. Caruana 2823
2. Ding 2791
3. So 2770
4. Giri 2764
5. Rapport 2759
6. Firouzja 2749
7. Duda 2743
8. Wei 2732
9. Vidit 2726
10. Dubov 2710
Nuclear powers:
1. Caruana 2823
2. Ding 2791
3. Nepomniachtchi 2789
4. Vachier-Lagrave 2784
5. Grischuk 2777
6. So 2770
7. Wang 2763
8. Dominguez 2758
9. Karjakin 2757
10-11. Anand 2753
10-11. Kramnik 2753 |
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Jan-17-21
| | beatgiant: Nobody posted a fix for the wunderkind month of birth problem, so I'll just do two lists: first list pretending they were all born in January, and second list pretending they were all born in December. This makes a difference of 1 point in our wunderkind index. The truth is somewhere between, but anyone who wants to find out is welcome to go research the real months of birth and post an accurate list. For those who may have missed it, and also to make sure I'm consistent with what we previously defined and make fewer miscalculations, I'll explain the definition here again. By eyeballing the rating lists, we came up with some age-based rating targets to be considered an exceptionally strong junior. The targets increase 50 rating points per year. To be specific: Age 8 - 2200
Age 9 - 2250
Age 10 - 2300
... and so on, all the way to Age 18 - 2700.
If a junior is rated 50 points above the target, this reflects "one year ahead of schedule" and receives a "wunderkind index" of 1. Thus, we take (actual rating minus target rating)/50. Also to help me make fewer miscalculations, or at least make it easy for others to correct me, I show my work. At this time, I will reveal that generating this list is a pretty error-prone process for me ;-) |
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Jan-17-21
| | beatgiant: Wunderkinder (Jan. 2021, assuming all born in January) 1. Firouzja, elo 2749, b. 2003, "age 18," target 2700, index (2749-2700)/50 = 0.98 2. Gukesh, elo 2563, b. 2006, "age 15," target 2550, index (2563-2550)/50 = 0.26 3. Finek, elo 2361, b. 2010, "age 11," target 2350, index (2361-2350)/50 = 0.22 4. Praggnanandhaa, elo 2608, b. 2005, "age 16," target 2600, index (2608-2600)/50 = 0.16 |
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Jan-17-21
| | beatgiant: Wunderkinder (Jan. 2021, assuming all born in December) The above players keep their places by adding 1 to their scores, viz: 1. Firouzja, 1.98
2. Gukesh 1.26
3. Finek 1.22
4. Praggnanandhaa 1.16
and we get the following additions:
5. Mendonca, elo 2538, b. 2006, "age 14," target 2500, index (2538-2500)/50 = 0.76 6. Abdusattorov, elo 2627, b. 2004, "age 16," target 2600, index (2627-2600)/50 = 0.54 7. Nihal, elo 2620, b. 2004, "age 16," target 2600, index (2620-2600)/50 = 0.4 8. Mishra, elo 2357, b. 2009, "age 11," target 2350, index (2357-2350)/50 = 0.14 |
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Jan-28-21
| | beatgiant: I've also been tinkering with the idea of publishing an index of active seniors who are much higher rated than expected for their age. "Wunderveteran"? "Geriatric Genius"? (Kibitzers are invited to suggest better names.) Before I do the work of defining a formula and calculating the results, I'd like to ask the forum whether there'd be any interest in this topic. As a preview, here's my rough estimate of who might be the top 10 "wunderveteranen" as of Jan. 2021. Eligibility: Active "elder" players who are "highly rated for their age" (not yet precisely defined). 1. Kovacevic, b. 1942, "age 79," elo 2466
2. Huebner, b. 1948, "age 73," elo 2574
3. Gulko, b. 1947, "age 74," elo 2543
4. Karpov, b. 1951, "age 70," elo 2617
5. Jansa, b. 1942, "age 79," elo 2420
6. Kurajica, b. 1947, "age 74," elo 2508
7. Saidy, b. 1937, "age 84," elo 2300
8. F. Portisch, b. 1939, "age 82," elo 2340
9. Murey, b. 1941, "age 80," elo 2379
10. Vukic b. 1942, "age 79," elo 2399 |
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Jan-28-21
| | beatgiant: My list above stopped with year of birth since 1935. I did a new search for even older players and discovered two other wunderveteraner who should surely make the top 10: Rotstein, b. 1933, "age 88," elo 2330
Kraidman, b. 1932, "age 89," elo 2254 |
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Feb-01-21
| | beatgiant: Feb. 2021:
Post-Communist (except USSR, China):
1. Rapport 2763
2. Duda 2743
3. Topalov 2735
4. Le 2709
5. Wojtaszek 2705
6. Navara 2697
7. Almasi 2687
8. Berkes 2673
9. Cheparinov 2667
10. Leko 2663
Latin America:
1. Cori 2652
2-3. Granda Zuniga 2630
2-3. Pichot 2630
4. Mareco 2629
5. Martinez Alcantara 2620
6. Delgado Ramirez 2615
7. Henriquez Villagra 2600
8-9. Bachmann 2599
8-9. Flores 2599
10. Leitao 2592
Middle East:
1. Amin 2695
2. Salem 2682
3-4. Gelfand 2676
3-4. Maghsoodloo 2676
5. Ipatov 2644
6. Nabaty 2638
7. Sutovsky 2636
8. Yilmaz 2630
9. Tabatabaei 2629
10. Adly 2615
Nordic/Baltic:
1. Carlsen 2862
2. Grandelius 2663
3. Kovalenko 2643
4. Tari 2625
5. Nielsen 2618
6. Christiansen 2612
7. Hammer 2608
8. Hellers 2592
9. Andersen 2579
10-11. Gretarsson 2576
10-11. Nyback 2576
Rest of World:
1. Firouzja 2749
2. Milov 2607
3. Pelletier 2581
4. Studer 2579
5. Bogner 2577
6. Hamdouchi 2561
7. Georgiadis 2553
8-9. Fontaine 2550
8-9. Megaranto 2550
10. Bellahcene 2517
Old Guard:
1. Anand 2753
2. Topalov 2735
3. Adams 2716
4. Svidler 2714
5. Sadler 2694
6. Almasi 2687
7. Ivanchuk 2678
8. Gelfand 2676
9-10. Kamsky 2665
9-10. Malakhov 2665 |
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Feb-02-21
| | alexmagnus: European Union:
1. Vachier-Lagrave 2784
2. Giri 2764
3. Rapport 2763
4. Duda W2743
5. Topalov 2735
6. Vallejo 2710
7. Wojtaszek 2705
8. Navara 2697
9. Almasi 2687
10. Ragger 2680
Former Soviet Union:
1. Nepomniachtchi 2789
2. Aronian 2781
3. Grischuk 2777
4. Mamedyarov 2770
5. Radjabov 2765
6. Karjakin 2757
7. Andreikin 2725
8. Vituigov 2715
9. Svidler 2714
10. Dubov 2710
Former British Empire:
1. Caruana 2823
2. So 2770
3. Dominguez 2758
4. Anand 2753
5. Nakamura 2736
6. Harikrishna 2732
7. Vidit 2726
8. Adams 2716
9. Xiong 2709
10. Amin 2695
Asia:
1. Ding 2791
2. Wang 2763
3. Anand 2753
4-5. Harikrishna 2732
4-5. Wei 2732
6. Vidit 2726
7-8. Le 2709
7-8. Yu 2709
9. Bu 2705
10. Li 2683
Born later than the world champion:
1. Caruana 2823
2. Ding 2791
3. So 2770
4. Giri 2764
5. Rapport 2763
6. Firouzja 2749
7. Duda 2743
8. Wei 2732
9. Vidit 2726
10. Dubov 2710
Nuclear powers:
1. Caruana 2823
2. Ding 2791
3. Nepomniachtchi 2789
4. Vachier-Lagrave 2784
5. Grischuk 2777
6. So 2770
7. Wang 2763
8. Dominguez 2758
9. Karjakin 2757
10. Anand 2753 |
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Feb-05-21
| | beatgiant: Due to the quirks of how we defined our lists, it's common to see players in multiple top 10 lists. For example, Anand is in Old Guard, Former British, Asia and Nuclear. But if poor Carlsen wants to get on another list, he will have to wait until he turns 40 and joins the Old Guard, assuming no unlikely events like he changes federation or Norway joins the EU. That brings me to my novelty list of the month: all the multi-list toppers, ranked in order of average list position. As usual, I'm open to any corrections, if anyone cares enough about this silly list to check my accuracy. 1. Caruana - Former Brit (1), Nuclear (1), Born Later (1) - avg. 1 2. Ding - Asia (1), Nuclear (2), Born Later (2), avg. 1.67 3. Nepomniachtchi - Former USSR (1), Nuclear (3), avg. 2 4. Vachier-Lagrave - EU (1), Nuclear (4), avg. 2.5 5. So - Former Brit (2), Nuclear (3), Born Later (3), avg. 2.67 6-7. Giri - EU (2), Born Later (4) avg. 3
6-7. Rapport - Post-Communist (1), EU (3), Born Later (5), avg. 3 8. Topalov - Post-Communist (3), EU (5), Old Guard (2), avg. 3.33 9. Firouzja - Born Later (6), Rest of World (1), avg 3.5 10. Grischuk - Former USSR (3), Nuclear (5), avg. 4 11. Duda - Post-Communist (2), EU (4), Born Later (7), avg. 4.33 12-13. Anand - Former Brit (4), Asia (3), Old Guard (1), Nuclear (10), avg. 4.5 12-13. Wang - Asia (2), nuclear (7), avg. 4.5
14-15. Gelfand - Middle East (2), Old Guard (8), avg. 5 14-15. Harikrishna - former Brit (6), Asia (4-5 count as 4), avg. 5 16-18. Adams - Brit (8), Old Guard (3), avg. 5.5 16-18. Amin - Middle East (1), Former Brit (10), avg. 5.5 16-18. Le - Post-Communist (4), Asia (7), avg. 5.5 19-20. Wei - Asia (4-5 count as 4), Born Later (8), avg. 6 19-20. Wojtaszek - Post-Communist (5), EU (7), avg. 6 21. Svidler - Former USSR (9), Old Guard (4), avg. 6.5 22. Navara - Post-Communist (8), EU (6), avg. 7
23-24. Almasi - Post-Communist (7), EU (9), Old Guard (6), avg. 7.33 23-24. Vidit - Former Brit (7), Asia (6), Born Later (9), avg 7.33 25. Karjakin - Former USSR (6), Nuclear (9), avg. 7.5 26. Dubov - Former USSR (10), Born Later (10), avg. 10. |
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Feb-05-21
| | alexmagnus: < But if poor Carlsen wants to get on another list, he will have to wait until he turns 40 and joins the Old Guard, assuming no unlikely events like he changes federation or Norway joins the EU.> ... or he loses his world champion title to an older player. |
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Feb-05-21
| | beatgiant: <alexmagnus>
<he loses his world champion title to an older player> Good point. Also Norway could try out Communism, develop a nuke, join the British Empire or acquire some territory in the Middle East. I wonder which is <least> likely?By the way, can you clarify your geographic criterion for "Asia" here? Are you using FIDE's definition (where for example Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan are Europe)? |
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| Feb-05-21 | | nok: <Rapport - Post-Communist> What is a Post-Communist? |
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Feb-05-21
| | beatgiant: <nok>
Great question. It's a vague term. Any country can call itself "Communist" while exploiting its workers and engaging in mercenary or imperialistic behavior.For the purpose of my list, it essentially means the former Soviet satellites plus Albania and the former Yugoslavia. The split countries (e.g. Germany, Vietnam) are defined as their current status (Germany: not "post-Communist", Vietnam: "Communist"). Hence Rapport qualifies as Hungary was "Communist" (1948-1989) Would you like a list of countries? I've never made one, but for example it hasn't been an issue so far whether to call Grenada "post-Communist." |
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| Feb-05-21 | | nok: <Any country can call itself "Communist" while exploiting its workers and engaging in mercenary or imperialistic behavior.> Agreed. Maybe post-Comecon is what you want. |
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Feb-05-21
| | beatgiant: <nok>
<Post-Comecon> For example both Laos and Finland had observer status in Comecon, but I'd consider Laos clearly "Post-Communist" and Finland clearly "not Post-Communist." Still, if I continue to maintain this list, I'll consider clarifying this designation.I've actually considered scrapping the list, because it generally has a lot of overlap with the EU list. Vietnam's top player appears also on the Asia list, and seems like Cuba's top players have all moved to St. Louis. |
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Feb-05-21
 | | Diademas: < nok: <Rapport - Post-Communist>
What is a Post-Communist?>
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1958-Sovie... |
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Feb-06-21
| | alexmagnus: <By the way, can you clarify your geographic criterion for "Asia" here? Are you using FIDE's definition (where for example Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan are Europe)?> Post-Soviet countries in the Caucasus (Gerorgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) are counted as Europe. Israel and Turkey as Asia. |
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Feb-06-21
| | beatgiant: <alexmagnus>
Thanks. How about Indonesia? FIDE lists it as Asia, but I've got it as "rest of world." |
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Feb-06-21
| | alexmagnus: <How about Indonesia?> Asia too. |
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Feb-06-21
| | beatgiant: <alexmagnus>
(laughs) Then all my list-making is even more useless than I suspected.The response to my list of septuagenarian savants was underwhelming, so at least it looks like I won't have to do the hard math around building an index for them. I will share my conclusion that for active top players in that age group, ratings drop by about 20 elo per year. I also found quite a few research papers on the effects of aging on chess skill. The question of "at what age to players reach their peak skill level," which we've asked here before, has been studied. I can't write at length right now, but I will reveal that in all the models, I myself am beyond the peak age ;-) |
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Feb-07-21
| | beatgiant: So what would be the main effect if I did eliminate my "post-Communist" list? Then most republics of the former Yugoslavia would become "rest of world," and players from that region would fill up the list. So maybe what we actually need is a "Balkan Peninsula" list. As an experiment, here's what one would look like in Feb. 2021. Balkan Peninsula. Eligibility: player from the former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Albania or Greece. 1. Topalov - 2735
2. Saric 2648
3. Cheparinov - 2638
4. Lenic - 2627
5. Papaioannou - 2623
6. Mastrovasilis - 2609
7. Indjic 2607
8. Ivanisevic 2606
9. Banikas 2602
10. Bosiocic 2601
Not bad, I think it makes as much sense as some other regional lists we've got. But I haven't yet decided to follow them every month. |
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Feb-08-21
| | beatgiant: Hmm, noticed that I wasn't consistent with Cheparinov on the two places where I listed him. 2667 is correct, and he should be number 2 on the Balkan list. |
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Feb-28-21
| | beatgiant: Mar. 2021
Post-Communist (except USSR, China):
1. Rapport 2763
2. Topalov 2735
3. Duda 2729
4. Le 2709
5. Navara 2697
6. Wojtaszek 2694
7. Almasi 2687
8. Berkes 2673
9. Cheparinov 2667
10. Leko 2663
I still haven't decided whether to revamp or scrap this list. Exclude the EU? Then we would get mostly the former Yugoslavia. Exclude Europe? Then we would get Vietnam, Cuba and maybe Mongolia. (And I'd have to hope there are enough top Vietnamese, Cuban and Mongolian players so I still won't need to decide whether Grenada is "post-Communist") |
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Mar-01-21
| | beatgiant: Latin America:
1. Cori 2652
2-3. Granda Zuniga 2630
2-3. Pichot 2630
4. Mareco 2629
5. Martinez Alcantara 2620
6. Delgado Ramirez 2616
7. Henriquez Villagra 2600
8-9. Bachman 2599
8-9. Flores 2599
10. Leitao 2592
Sometime in the last few months, Iturrizaga Bonelli moved off this list by changing his federation to Spain. |
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