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| Jan-31-11 | | WinKing: Thanks for running the FINAL STANDIN PREDICTION CONTEST <lostemperor>. I had fun trying to figure out where these great players would end up. |
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Jan-31-11
 | | lostemperor: <moronovich> Nakamura wo'nt be around in 40 year time, the big lady will still, but Im sure the peasoup of Nakamura tasted best last night! :) |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: <<<2011 TATA STEEL ROUND FINAL UPDATE> All draws yestrday; NAKAMURA sole winner Tata Steel 2011!> Final Standings after round 13
(With honourary medals)
♔ 1. Nakamura 9
♕ 2. Anand 8½
♖ 3. Aronian
♖ 3. Carlsen 8
5. Kramnik
5. Vachier-Lagrave 7½
7. Giri
7. Ponomariov 6½
9. Nepomniachtchi
9. Wang Hao 6
11. Grischuk
11. l'Ami
11. Smeets 4½
14. Shirov 4 > |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: It was a fascinating tournament indeed right till the end!! Many players scored unexpectedly.. <Winners of the ABSOLUTE RANKER:> (tied!) ♔YouRang
♔Ragh
♔rogge
<Winners of the SQUARE RANKER:> 1. YouRang
2. SwitchingQuylthulg
3. Ragh
<Winners of the PAIR BETTING RANKER:> 1. YouRang
2. percyblakeney
3. nimh
In other words <YouRang> THREE TIME WINNER of all categories!!! <Ragh> and <rogge> winners of virtual gold in the Absolute ranker. Second place for <SwitchingQuylthulg> in the Square ranker followed by <Ragh> 3rd and <percyblakeney> 2nd and <nimh> 3rd in the Pair Betting Ranker!! (in this case the rule is if a person or persons is/are the same winner(s) of already another ranker only one set of medals is awarded; if SOMEONE ELSE has won a gold in any other ranker another set is awarded) <YouRang> just again proved, he can win anything but his own prediction contest! :) Congratulations to all winners!! |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: <2011 TATA STEEL FINAL PREDICTIONS STANDINGS> ABSOLUTE RANKER
Maximum score 98 (arbitrary)
Score,UserID
♔65,Ragh
♔65,rogge
♔65,YouRang
~~~~~~~~~~
64,Bobwhoosta
64,SwitchingQuylthulg
62,CHESSBOOKIE
62,ELO
62,wordfunph
61,chancho
60,MrMelad
59,lostemperor
59,nimh
59,WinKing
58,moronovich
58,yalie
57,WannaBe
56,chessmoron
56,OhioChessFan
53,Aurora
53,percyblakeney
53,SloVice
50,cromat
48,DCP23 |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER
Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation
Maximum score: 910
Score,UserID
806,YouRang
790,SwitchingQuylthulg
785,Ragh
~~~~~~~~~~~
784,rogge
779,wordfunph
764,CHESS BOOKIE
754,Bobwhoosta
753,ELO RATING
746,WinKing
743,chancho
741,nimh
738,lostemperor
736,MrMelad
728,Aurora
714,yalie
710,WannaBe
686,moronovich
680,percyblakeney
679,chessmoron
679,OhioChessFan
677,SloVice
658,DCP23
594,cromat |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: FINAL PAIR BETTING RANKER
Earnings$,UserID
26.62,YouRang
14.09,percyblakeney
13.55,nimh
~~~~~~~~~~
13.12,Bobwhoosta
13.02,Aurora
10.40,Ragh
6.65,SwitchingQuylthulg
6.47,lostemperor
3.72,ELO RATING
3.12,chancho
2.79,rogge
1.29,wordfunph
0.15,moronovich
-3.15,yalie
-3.98,CHESS BOOKIE
-5.60,WannaBe
-5.64,WinKing
-8.20,OhioChessFan
-14.76,chessmoron
-16.48,MrMelad
-17.29,SloVice
-17.82,DCP23
-22.07,cromat |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$7.67,Aronian-below-Nakamura, moronovich + rogge + WinKing$7.67,Aronian-equal-Carlsen, Aurora + OhioChessFan + SwitchingQuylthulg $7.67,Giri-above-Shirov, Bobwhoosta + percyblakeney + YouRang $7.67,Grischuk-below-Nepomniachtchi, Aurora + DCP23 + percyblakeney $7.67,Grischuk-below-Ponomariov, wordfunph + yalie + YouRang $7.67,Shirov-below-Wang, ELO RATING + lostemperor + percyblakeney $5.75,Anand-above-Carlsen, chancho + nimh + OhioChessFan + yalie $5.75,Giri-above-Nepomniachtchi, Bobwhoosta + chancho + Ragh + YouRang $5.75,Kramnik-below-Nakamura, Bobwhoosta + moronovich + percyblakeney + rogge $5.75,Ponomariov-below-Vachier, Aurora + lostemperor + nimh + WannaBe $4.60,Giri-equal-Ponomariov, Aurora + lostemperor + moronovich + nimh + Ragh $4.60,Nepomniachtchi-below-Vachier, nimh + Ragh + SloVice + WannaBe + YouRang $4.60,Shirov-below-Vachier, lostemperor + nimh + percyblakeney + SwitchingQuylthulg + YouRang |
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Jan-31-11
| | lostemperor: Missed chanches:
$0.00,Anand-below-Nakamura, (0 winners)
$0.00,Carlsen-below-Nakamura, (0 winners)
$0.00,Giri-above-Grischuk, (0 winners)
$0.00,Grischuk-below-Vachier, (0 winners)
$0.00,Grischuk-below-Wang, (0 winners)
$0.00,Grischuk-equal-Lami, (0 winners)
$0.00,Grischuk-equal-Smeets, (0 winners)
$0.00,Kramnik-equal-Vachier, (0 winners)
$0.00,Lami-above-Shirov, (0 winners)
$0.00,Nepomniachtchi-equal-Wang, (0 winners)
$0.00,Shirov-below-Smeets, (0 winners) |
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| Jan-31-11 | | rogge: Thanks for hosting, <lostemperor>. The best prediction contest for a lazy guy like me (one prediction only) :) Congrats to all the winners, <YouRang> in particular! |
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| Jan-31-11 | | YouRang: Woo hoo! The "triple crown" -- that's amazing.
<lostemperor> Yep, I can't win my own contest for the life of me, but sometimes I do okay in yours. Thanks for running the show. :-) For the record, here was my prediction:
<YouRang: Hi <lostemperor>. My sterling prediction is as follows:
1. Carlsen
2. Ponomariov
2. Aronian
4. Anand
4. Nakamura
4. Kramnik
7. Grischuk
7. Vachier-Lagrave
7. Giri
10. Shirov
10. Nepomniachtchi
12. Wang Hao
13. Smeets
13. L'ami
>
It doesn't seem all that great at first glance, so evidently this was just a tough tournament for everyone. No doubt I was helped by:
- Placing Nakamura fairly high (4th).
- I placed Vachier-LaGrave 7th (he finished tied for 5th), which was probably higher than most others placed him. - I picked Shirov to do not-so-good, which turned out to be the case. - Overall, I managed to get people not too far from where they ended up. I think my worst was Ponomariov (I picked him for 2nd but he finished tied for 7th) |
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| Jan-31-11 | | Ragh: <lostemperor> Thanks for holding the contest. A King and a Rook for me here then. Great! My collection for this TATA tourney has another King from <yourang>'s contest and a Knight and two Bishops from <chessmoron>'s contest at <OCF>. Not very far from a full chess set collection, I suppose! |
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Jan-31-11
 | | WannaBe: Thanks for running the contest, and all the round by round updates!! =) |
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| Jan-31-11 | | Bobwhoosta: Dang 4th, 4th, and 5th!!!
Back with a vengeance next year, MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! (Thanks a lot for the fun game!!) |
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Feb-01-11
| | lostemperor: Thanks for participating all! That sterling of yours went triple crown <YouRang>:) I looked for Linares 2011 and also could find nothing else that Carlsen was contracted. I remember reading before Tata steel that it was"a double round robin tournament of only six players. If so perhaps it is less interesting for a final standings prediciton contest. I will let you know as soon as more info becomes available. There are several other big tournaments later this year however so stay in touch.. |
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Feb-01-11
| | lostemperor: I don't keep up with the minor ♗♘♙ awards for now for best prediciton on surprise players. I think the best prediction on a surprising player should be the one closest to an upset, not necessary closest to the biggest prediction deviation Grischuk. So it could be on Shirov, Nakamura or others but has to be a closer prediction.. Anyway here the predictions' statistics:
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
152,Grischuk
136,Shirov
116,Nakamura
102,Vachier
72,Giri
46,Nepomniachtchi
44,Carlsen
43,Ponomariov
42,Kramnik
38,Wang
37,Lami
28,Aronian |
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Feb-02-11
 | | moronovich: <lostemperor> Thanks for running the competition ! It has been a lot of fun also hearing your firsthand impresions from "the scene of crime " ;) See you next time at , Amber , or ?.. |
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Feb-02-11
| | lostemperor: Thank you for your attention <moronovich>. Unfortunately I won't be visiting Monaco this year I suppose :) |
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| Feb-02-11 | | Ragh: Well I see a ♖ missing from my collection here.. :) |
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Feb-03-11
| | lostemperor: <Ragh> you mean from this Tata Steel? There is only three ♔ awarded to you <rogge> and <YouRang> because of the socalled "winner takes" all rule. The reason is it too often occurs that one and the same person wins the three rankers. Then every time that person, <YouRang> in this case, will get three ♔♔♔ what is unnecessary and unwanted since it will inflate the Hall of Fame too much. This has always been the case, or otherwise other people would have gotten three gold also often before. Few years ago there was only one ranker (absolute) which I calculated by hand. Now because of <YouRang> software we have three! However, suppose if someone other, who has not won in the absolute ranker, like <SwitchingquylThulg> or <percyblakeney> had won gold in any other ranker, a new set of medals would be awarded since that would be a different crown winner! :) |
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Feb-03-11
 | | OhioChessFan: Thank you for running the contest. I had a good run in <YouRang> and <chessmoron> and terrible here. |
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Feb-22-11
| | lostemperor: <OhioChessFan> As you noticed it takes different qualities to do well in this prediction contest as to in <YouRang> or <chessmoron> contest. Of course there are a few exceptions who do well in both :) |
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Feb-22-11
| | lostemperor: As you probably have read, the Linares tournament has been postponed or perhaps even cancelled unfortunately! |
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Feb-22-11
| | lostemperor: Okay, I will hold the last AMBER CHESS TOURNAMENT Final Standings Prediction Contest starting March 11th instead! It is the combined rankings. So blindfold and rapid combined. Participants http://www.amberchess20.com/partici... Please post your predictions:) |
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Feb-22-11
| | OhioChessFan: <As you noticed it takes different qualities to do well in this prediction contest as to in <YouRang> or <chessmoron> contest. Of course there are a few exceptions who do well in both :) > The biggest difference is in the opportunity to reconsider how well a player is doing. I never dreamed Shirov would do so poorly, but halfway through the tournament, it was obvious he was way off his game. You can adjust for that in the other 2 contests, but in the final standings contest, you just have to grit your teeth at players underperforming your prediction. |
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Later Kibitzing> |
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