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| May-23-06 | | YouRang: <lostemperor><Am I mistaken here. But YouRang picked Ponomariov to finish second also, not first. > LOL! I forgot my own prediction. I recall thinking about picking Ponomariov to finish first, but evidently I changed my mind at the last moment and put Anand first (he finished 3rd). That decision spared me from having the cellar all to myself. :-) P.S. Congratulations to <Ezzy> on your tournament win! |
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| May-23-06 | | Ezzy: <WannaBe: <sean hernandez> practice, study, practice, study, practice, study> Is that the advice from your parrot! <YouRang: LOL! I forgot my own prediction.> So now I am equally just as much an idiot as you. <YouRang: P.S. Congratulations to <Ezzy> on your tournament win!> Cheers mate! |
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May-23-06
 | | WannaBe: What a week for <Ezzy>, got soaking wet and won a tournament, then wins the prediction contest!! =) |
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| May-23-06 | | Ezzy: <then wins the prediction contest!! =)> Hey! 2 out of 3 aint bad. But of course, I would have prefered to lose the tournament, kept dry and won the prediction contest. |
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| May-23-06 | | YouRang: <<YouRang: LOL! I forgot my own prediction.> So now I am equally just as much an idiot as you.> Not quite. Unlike me, YOU didn't forget your own predictions. So I am still the bigger idiot - HA HA! (wins another debate - yessss!) |
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| May-23-06 | | Ezzy: <YouRang: So I am still the bigger idiot - HA HA!> I must be a bigger idiot for foolishly trying to prove that I am equally as much of an idiot as you. |
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| May-24-06 | | gus inn: being an idiot , can be a most clever move ! |
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May-25-06
 | | lostemperor: <gus inn> having people think you're an idiot most certainly can :). <YouRang> you're saying your prediction to put Anand first and Ponomariov second spared you from having "the cellar" all to yourself. This is not the case. If you have put Ponomariov first and Anand second it would not have make any difference! See, you would have lost an extra point on Ponomariov but gained one on Anand, since Anand became third (;. |
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| May-25-06 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> Sigh. Right again. Further justification of my claim to be the bigger idiot. However, you'll notice that the CONMAN program provides another scoring option that is based on "least squares" rather than "absolute differences". In that system, putting Ponomariov first would have been worse: Penalty for:
1. Anand (finished 3rd; (3-1) squared=4)
2. Ponomariov (finished 5th; (5-2) squared=9)
Total penalty: 4+9 = 13
Penalty for:
1. Ponomariov (finished 5th; (5-1) squared=16)
2. Anand (finished 3th; (3-2) squared=1)
Total penalty: 16+1 = 17
The "least squares" system favors several small errors over a few big ones. This is the most common method used in curve-fitting a given set of points (you would rather the curve be reasonably close to all the points than being very close to some, but way off on others). |
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| May-25-06 | | Ezzy: <lostemperor>'s an idiot for allowing 2 idiots on his personal forum, discussing who is the bigger idiot of the two! |
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| May-25-06 | | Ezzy: <YouRang: <lostemperor> Sigh. Right again. Further justification of my claim to be the bigger idiot.> LOL I'm starting to believe you! :-) |
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| May-25-06 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> Are you planning to run your final standing prediction contest for both Biel and Dortmund? |
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May-26-06
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> no I'm not running a predictioncontest on Biel. Only Dortmund tournament and one more surprise event I may give details in a week orso. <Sigh. Right again. Further justification of my claim to be the bigger idiot.> your words not mine :) <However, you'll notice that the CONMAN program provides another scoring option that is based on "least squares" rather than "absolute differences"> How do you activate that software option. I'm afraid I'm a complete idiot, at least concerning computers hehehe. |
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May-26-06
| | lostemperor: ANNOUNCEMENT: The First Match-Results Prediction Contest (including their scores). Probably the first in the world and on internet here at chessgames.com. Predict the outcome and score of the candidates matches and the worldchampionshipmatch Kramnik vs Topalov. These are the pairings:
The Candidate Matches 2006:
1. L. Aronian - M. Carlsen ?-?
2. P. Leko - M. Gurevich ?-?
3. R. Ponomariov - S. Rublevsky ?-?
4. B. Gelfand - R. Kasimdzhanov ?-?
5. E. Bacrot - G. Kamsky ?-?
6. A. Grischuk - V. Malakhov ?-?
7. J. Polgar - E. Bareev ?-?
8. A. Shirov - M. Adams ?-?
(6 games a match)
and on top, predict the score of
The World Chess Championship
V. Topalov - V. Kramnik ?-?
(12 games)
Here an example on how the points are given. You will get a maximum points (6) for a correct predictionresult. Suppose you predict Aronian - Carlsen 3 1/2 - 2 1/2. And the actual score turns out to be 4-2. Then one point will be deducted from the maximum 6. If the score is 4 1/2 - 1 1/2 two points will be deducted etc. For a correct matchwinner prediction (ie. 2-4 means the last player (Carlsen) wins) you will get a point bonus. In case you predict a 3-3 tie you will get the bonus and can get an extra bonus on tie-break winner or matchwinner. Simply give a plus (+) sign to whom you think will win the match ie. 3+ - 3 if you think the first player wins. The Topalov vs Kramnik match starts at September 21st and the candidates likely at October 20. So this is a longterm event but you can submit your predictions here as from now (as soon as you have activated your account if you dare :)). Good luck. |
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| May-26-06 | | iWaNnAbAgM: 1.Aronian - Carlsen 3 1/2-2 1/2
2.Leko - Gurevich 4-2
3.Ponomariov - Rublevsky 3 1/2-2 1/2
4.Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 4-2
5.Bacrot - Kamsky 3  3
6.Grischuk - Malakhov 4 1/2-1 1/2
7.Polgar - Bareev 3 3
8.Shirov - Adams 2 1/2-3 1/2
Topalov - Kramnik 5-7 |
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| May-26-06 | | YouRang: <lostemperor><How do you activate that software option> When viewing the "Final Standing Ranker" in CONMAN, you will see a pulldown box called "Score Evaluation Method". Normally this box defaults to "Absolute value of rank deviation", but you can change it to "Least Squares of Rank Deviation". :-) |
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| May-26-06 | | YouRang: <New Match Prediction Contest> === 6 game matches
1. L. Aronian - M. Carlsen 3.5-2.5
2. P. Leko - M. Gurevich 4-2
3. R. Ponomariov - S. Rublevsky 3  3
4. B. Gelfand - R. Kasimdzhanov 4-2
5. E. Bacrot - G. Kamsky 2.5-3.5
6. A. Grischuk - V. Malakhov 3.5-2.5
7. J. Polgar - E. Bareev 3 3
8. A. Shirov - M. Adams 3.5-2.5
=== 12 game match
V. Topalov - V. Kramnik 6.5-5.5 |
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| May-26-06 | | iWaNnAbAgM: <lostemperor>I'm the same user as <chessmaster pro> but that account doesn't work anymore so i changed it in to this one. |
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| May-26-06 | | percyblakeney: My predictions, and I suppose the last game won't be played in matches where the outcome is already decided. The Candidate Matches 2006:
1. L. Aronian - M. Carlsen 3½-2½
2. P. Leko - M. Gurevich 3½-1½
3. R. Ponomariov - S. Rublevsky 3½-2½
4. B. Gelfand - R. Kasimdzhanov 3-3+
5. E. Bacrot - G. Kamsky 3 3
6. A. Grischuk - V. Malakhov 3½-1½
7. J. Polgar - E. Bareev 2½-3½
8. A. Shirov - M. Adams 2½-3½
The World Chess Championship:
V. Topalov - V. Kramnik 6½-4½ |
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| May-26-06 | | YouRang: <I suppose the last game won't be played in matches where the outcome is already decided.> I was wondering about that too. Conceivably, the last 2 games might be scrapped if one player goes 3.5 to 0.5 in the first 4 games. It would seem silly IMO to play out all 6 games if the match is decided after 4 or 5 games. |
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| May-26-06 | | Ezzy: <percyblakeney> You have a game missing from the Leko v Gurevich prediction. |
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| May-26-06 | | Montreal1666: <lostemperor:> what is timeline of these candidates matches? are they all the same time? |
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| May-27-06 | | iWaNnAbAgM: <percyblakeney>And you also have a game missing from the Grischuk - Malakhov and Topalov - Kramnik prediction. |
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May-28-06
| | lostemperor: <percyblakeney> I think the candidate matches will be six games even if a player has 3.5 points before. That's my presumtion from some earlier experience although I forgot what. <Montreal1666> since the Topalov - Kramnik match will start September 21 I will take that as the deadline. Or the first candidate match if for some strange reason the worldchampionship match is postponed or cancelled. The maximum points for the Topalov - Kramnik match will be 12. Notice that the difference can be 24 points there if a 12-0 prediction become 0-12 result or vice versa ;). Oh and a correction: you'll get one point bonus for the correct match winner not for the tie in itself as I earlier mentioned. In case of a 3-3 tie a "+" sign will indicate the winner. <YouRang> you were better off with the "least squares" points! Another evaluation I've been thinking to be worth trying, although not likely for the official contest, is giving a higher value for the top standings. For instance count the points given to the #1 standing prediction 6 times and the #2 standings 5 times, etc. |
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| May-28-06 | | percyblakeney: <lostemperor> OK, if they would keep playing also after someone has won my prediction would look like this... The Candidate Matches 2006:
1. L. Aronian - M. Carlsen 3½-2½
2. P. Leko - M. Gurevich 4-2
3. R. Ponomariov - S. Rublevsky 3½-2½
4. B. Gelfand - R. Kasimdzhanov 3-3+
5. E. Bacrot - G. Kamsky 3 3
6. A. Grischuk - V. Malakhov 4-2
7. J. Polgar - E. Bareev 2½-3½
8. A. Shirov - M. Adams 2½-3½
The World Chess Championship:
V. Topalov - V. Kramnik 7-5 |
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