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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 39 OF 285 ·
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| Jul-22-07 | | DCP23: Biel standings prediction:
1-2. Grischuk, Motylev
3. Radjabov
4-5. Carlsen, Polgar
6. Xianghzi
7. Avrukh
8. van Wely
9. Pelletier
10. Onischuk |
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| Jul-22-07 | | mikejaqua: My Biel predictions:
1-2. Radjabov-Carlsen
3. Grischuk
4. Polgar
5. Motylev
6. Xianghzi
7. Onischuk
8. van Wely
9. Avrukh
10. Pelletier |
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| Jul-22-07 | | mikejaqua: Gotta get in on the WC prediction:
[Shame on all who did not put WC Kramnik on top of their list. :)]
1. Kramnik
2. Aronian
3,4. Anand, Svidler
5,6. Leko, Morozevich
7,8. Grischuk, Gelfand |
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| Jul-23-07 | | DCP23: Oh, so we have a Mexico prediction contest too? Here's my entry then: 1. Kramnik
2. Svidler
3. Morozevich
4. Leko
5. Anand
6. Aronian
7. Grischuk
8. Gelfand |
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Jul-23-07
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: Still time for Biel predictions?
1. Radjabov
2. Xiangzhi
3. Carlsen
3. Grischuk
5. Van Wely
5. Polgar
7. Motylev
8. Avrukh
8. Onischuk
10. Pelletier |
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Jul-23-07
 | | lostemperor: We have a fabulous fun summer Biel festival contest and, besides the COMPUTER ( formerly known as ELO)we have one formidable opponent still not mentioned, The World! This is formely known as betting odds of the world's players in the world's only Chess Bookie game Biel Chess Festival: WINNER! 1.Radjabov 20,199 200 13:10 2.30 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 23 chessbucks.
2. Grischuk 10,166 7:2 4.52 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 45 chessbucks.
3. Carlsen 8,626 9:2 5.32 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 53 chessbucks.
4.J Polgar 4,386 5 10:1 10.42 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 104 chessbucks.
5. Bu Xianghzi 1,930 23:1 23.61 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 236 chessbucks.
6. Van Wely 857 34 52:1 53.12 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 531 chessbucks.
7. Onischuk 673 21 67:1 67.63 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 676 chessbucks.
8 Motylev 464 21 97:1 98.06 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 980 chessbucks.
9 Pelletier 383 118:1 118.79 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 1187 chessbucks
10. Avrukh 188 12 241:1 241.96 A winning 10 chessbuck ticket
pays out 2419 chessbucks
Also I will make an update of the rankings after each rounds! |
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Jul-23-07
| | lostemperor: POLGAR won!
CARLSEN won!
Standings Bielfestival after round 1:
1.Polgar
1.Carlsen
3.Radjabov
3.Grischuk
3.Motylev
3.Onischuk
3.Arukh
3.Pelletier
9.Xiangzhi
9.van Wely
Prediction rankings
Maximum score: 75
Score,UserID
51,TIMER
48,cromat
47,mikejaqua
46,lostemperor
46,WannaBe
46,yalie
44,DCP23
43,YouRang
42,<DeepELO>
42,kolobok
40,chessmoron
40,percyblakeney
38,<The WORLD>
35,SwitchingQuylthulg
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
86,Pelletier
73,Avrukh
55,Onischuk
50,Motylev
45,van Wely
40,Xianghzi
33,Polgar
25,Radjabov
24,Carlsen
11,Grischuk
It is only the first round but <The WORLD> has some catching up to do ;-) |
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Jul-24-07
| | lostemperor: These are the scientifical predictions according to ELO the ratings (the way the computer would have had it calculated): 1. 2746 Teimour Radjabov
2. 2726 Alexander Grischuk
3. 2710 Magnus Carlsen
3. 2707 Judit Polgar
5. 2685 Bu Xianghzi
6. 2679 Loek van Wely
7. 2650 Alexander Onischuk
7. 2648 Alexander Motylev
7. 2645 Boris Avrukh
10. 2591 Yannick Pelletier
I take the same standings for players with ratings which do not differ much from each other. (Perhaps Bu and Van Wely are expected to score the same amount of points also?) |
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Jul-25-07
| | lostemperor: Round 2: Onischuk won!
Standings Bielfestival after two rounds
1.Polgar
1.Carlsen
1.Onischuk
4.Radjabov
4.Motylev
4. Avrukh
4.Pellletier
8.Grischuk
8.Xiangzhi Bu
8. Van wely
Strangely enough perhaps, only a few changes in the prediction rankings since Grischuk was high on most predictions (we all lose points on Grischuk). People who had Onischuk high on their list should gain in rankings, although now the biggest deviation is on him! Prediction rankings after 2 rounds out 9
Rank,Score,UserID
1,46,TIMER
2t,45,cromat
2t,45,yalie
4,44,mikejaqua
5t,43,lostemperor
5t,43,WannaBe
7,40,YouRang
8t,39,DCP23
8t,39,DEEPELO
8t,39,kolobok
11t,37,chessmoron
11t,37,percyblakeney
13,35,THEWORLD
14,32,SwitchingQuylthulg
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
83,Onischuk
79,Grischuk
72,Pelletier
59,Avrukh
39,Radjabov
38,Motylev
33,Polgar
31,van
28,Xianghzi
24carlsen |
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Jul-25-07
| | lostemperor: Statistics after two rounds:
Best prediction on Onischuk 1-3: <lostemperor> 4-5 Best prediction on Grischuk 8-10: <yalie> 4 Best pediction on Pelletier 4-7: <chessmoron> 7 Correct prediction on Carlsen 1-3 (average 2): <chessmoron>, <percyblakeney> 2 Best prediction on Polgar 1-3: <yalie> 2-3 |
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Jul-26-07
| | lostemperor: Third round decisive games:
Bu Xiangzhi - Polgar, Judit 1-0
Van Wely - Motylev 0-1
Standings after round 3
1. Carlsen
1. Onischuk
1. Motylev
4. Polgar
4. Radjabov
4. Pelltier
4. Avrukh
4. Xiangzhi Bu
9. Grischuk
10. Loek Van Wely
Absolute prediction rankier after 3 rounds (from 9!)
Rank,Score,UserID
1,42,DCP23
2,41,mikejaqua
3t,38,cromat
3t,38,WannaBe
5t,36,chessmoron
5t,36,yalie
7t,35,DEEP ELO*
7t,35,TIMER
7t,35,YouRang
10t,34,lostemperor
10t,34,The WORLD
12,33,SwitchingQuylthulg
13,32,percyblakeney
14,30,kolobok
*corrected into a shared fifth/sixth standing for Van Wely according to his rating for accuracy reasons Square ranker:
Least Squares of rank deviation
Maximum score: 385
Rank,Score,UserID
1,222,cromat
2,219,mikejaqua
3,210,yalie
4,196,WannaBe
5,193,TIMER
6,190,lostemperor
7t,188,DCP23
8,179,DEEP ELO
9,175,YouRang
10,169,SwitchingQuylthulg
11,160,The WORLD
12t,158,chessmoron
12t,158,percyblakeney
14,136,kolobok
It's going to be an exciting tournament still! |
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Jul-27-07
| | lostemperor: Warzone in Biel today!
4th round (July 27th)
Teimour Radjabov - Judit Polgar ½ - ½
Boris Avrukh - Bu Xiangzhi 1 - 0
Alexander Motylev - Magnus Carlsen 0 - 1
Alexander Onischuk - Loek Van Wely 1 - 0
Alexander Grischuk - Yannick Pelletier 1 - 0
Standings after round 4
1. Magnus Carlsen 3
1. Alexander Onischuk 3
3. Boris Avrukh 2.5
4. Alexander Motylev 2
4. Judit Polgar 2
4. Teimour Radjabov 2
4. Alexander Grischuk 2
8. Yannick Pelletier 1.5
8. Bu Xianghzi 1.5
10. Loek Van Wely 0.5
Prediction rankings after 4 rounds out of 9
(Maximum score: 75):
Score,UserID
52,mikejaqua
51,cromat
50,TIMER
49,lostemperor
49,yalie
47,DCP23
46,YouRang
45,kolobok
45,percyblakeney
45,WannaBe
44,DEEP ELO
43,chessmoron
43,THE WORLD
40,SwitchingQuylthulg
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Jul-28-07
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: I have acquired my rightful place! ;-) It's a pity <technical draw> isn't here. If chessbookie is any clue, we could have an awesome fight for last. |
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Jul-28-07
| | lostemperor: <SwitchingQuylthulg> the tournament isn't even halfway. So I wdn't give up hope yet;) |
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Jul-28-07
| | lostemperor: Round 5
Carlsen - Onischuk 1-0
Bu - Motylev 1-0
1.Carlsen 4
2.Onischuk 3
2.Avrukh 3
4.Polgar 2.5
4 Radjabov 2.5
4. Grischuk 2.5
4. Bu Xiangzhi 2.5
8. Motylev 2
8. Pelletier 2
10 van wely 1
Maximum score: 75
Prediction rankings after 5 rounds:
Rank,Score,UserID
1t,50,mikejaqua
1t,50,YouRang
3t,49,chessmoron
3t,49,The WORLD
3t,49,WannaBe
3t,49,yalie
7,48,DEEP ELO
8,47,cromat
9t,46,SwitchingQuylthulg
9t,46,TIMER
11t,43,DCP23
11t,43,kolobok
11t,43,percyblakeney
14,41,lostemperor
I now know how it feels to be in the cellar :(
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
92,Avrukh
74,Onischuk
64,van
42,Radjabov
35,Xianghzi
29,Motylev
26,Carlsen
25,Grischuk
22,Pelletier
14,Polgar |
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Jul-29-07
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: <lostemperor> what the...? You stole my place, you @$%&£§½! Or, more likely, there has been a miscalculation. |
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Jul-29-07
| | lostemperor: Nope, there seems nothing wrong with the calculations! @#$% |
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| Jul-29-07 | | TIMER: <lostemperor> I thought that I would get in my current predictions before I am too late for the .. World Chess Championship Mexico!
1 Anand 8/14
2-3 Aronian 7.5/14
2-3 Gelfand 7.5/14
4-6 Kramnik 7/14
4-6 Leko 7/14
4-6 Svidler 7/14
7-8 Morozevic 6/14
7-8 Grischuk 6/14
I think that it will be tighter than San Luis was. It is just missing Ivanchuk and Topalov but apart from that it is something to look forward to! |
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Jul-29-07
| | lostemperor: Round 6
Radjabov- Avrukh 1-0
Motylev - Polgar 0-1
Standings after 6 rounds
1.Carlsen
2.Onischuk
2.Polgar
2.Radjabov
5.Avrukh
5.Bu Xiangzhi
5.Grischuk
8.Pelletier
9.Motylev
10.Wely van
Prediction rankings after 6 rounds of 9
Maximum score: 75
Rank,Score,UserID
1t,55,WannaBe
1t,55,yalie
3,54,YouRang
4t,53,chessmoron
5t,52,DEEP ELO
5t,52,mikejaqua
5t,52,TIMER
8t,51,cromat
8t,51,The WORLD
10,47,kolobok
11,46,SwitchingQuylthulg
12t,45,lostemperor
12t,45,percyblakeney
14,43,DCP23
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
74,Onischuk
64,Wely van
47,Avrukh
42,Motylev
40,Grischuk
26,Carlsen
22,Pelletier
22,Xianghzi
20,Polgar
14,Radjabov |
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Jul-30-07
| | lostemperor: There are new prizes for the best prediction on the most surprising Biel players. ♗,♘,♙ awards (Bishop, Knight and Pawn or Copper, Nickel and Tin?). The most surprising players are the ones with the biggest deviations: Deviation, player
74,Onischuk (1st surprise)
64,Wely van (2nd surprise)
47,Avrukh (3rd surprise)
The best prediction on Onischuk will get the ♗ award. Best predcition on Van Wely ♘ and on Avrukh ♙. After 6 rounds the awards virtually in hands of:
♗<lostemperor> (after doing some research) best 1st surprise prediction (on Onischuk 2-4). Prediction 4-5 ♘<DCP23>,<mikejaqua> best 2nd surprise prediction (on Van Wely 10). Prediction 8 ♙<kolobok> 3rd best surprise prediction (on Avrukh 5-7). Prediction 7 These prizes will not likely make it into the Hall of Fame but it will be noted!:) |
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Jul-30-07
| | lostemperor: The square ranker after 6 rounds:
1. yalie
2. YouRang
3. cromat
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Aug-01-07
| | lostemperor: Round 7
Radjabov - Wely van 1-0
Carlsen - Pelletier 0-1
1.Carlsen
1.Radjabov
3. Onischuk
3. Polgar
5. Avrukh
5. Bu Xiangzhi
5. Grischuk
5. Pelletier
9. Motylev
10.Wely van
Maximum score: 75
Rank,Score,UserID
1,55,chessmoron
2,54,YouRang
3t,53,WannaBe
3t,53,yalie
5t,52,DEEP ELO
5t,52,mikejaqua
7t,51,cromat
8t,51,The WORLD
9,50,TIMER
10,47,kolobok
11,46,SwitchingQuylthulg
12t,45,lostemperor
12t,45,percyblakeney
14,41,DCP23
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
64,van
63,Pelletier
59,Onischuk
47,Avrukh
42,Motylev
40,Grischuk
26,Carlsen
22,Xianghzi
11,Polgar
3,Radjabov
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| Aug-01-07 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> Nice idea, showing the round-by-round standings in your contest. :-) |
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Aug-02-07
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> all made possible by the CONMAN;). I skip the second last round to keep it exciting! |
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Aug-03-07
| | lostemperor: This has been a great tournament. At the top Van Wely beat Carlsen in the 8th round but Carlsen beat Radjabov in the last round to take first place with Onischuk! Final standings:
1 Carlsen 5.5
1 Onischuk 5.5
3 Pelletier 5
3 Polgar 5
3 Grischuk 5
3 Radjabov 5
7 Xiangzhi 3.5
7 Van Wely 3.5
7 Motylev 3.5
7 Avrukh 3.5
Here the result of the Biel festival prediction's contest: Absolute value
Maximum score: 75
Score,UserID
♔56,cromat
♔56,WannaBe
♔56,yalie
55,YouRang
53,DEEP ELO (ratings)
53,mikejaqua
53,TIMER
52,chessmoron
50,kolobok
50,lostemperor
50,percyblakeney
50,THE WORLD (bookie odds)
47,SwitchingQuylthulg
46,DCP23
Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
93,Pelletier
89,Onischuk
27,Radjabov
26,Carlsen
23,Wely van
22,Bu Xianghzi
21,Avrukh
20,Motylev
12,Grischuk
11,Polgar
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