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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 73 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Feb-14-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Okay there is a need for clarity here. When I have <YouRang>s new software running I will use it alongside the old version. For the predictions and tournament standings, the highest standing of a player, in the old version, still counts here for Linares 2009 with the exception perhaps of the "pair bettings". Tnx!
Feb-14-09  YouRang: <lostemperor> BTW, the new software also fixes the problem that was introduced when cg.com changed the link to delete a post from "kill msg" to "delete".

It's your call of course, but if I were you, I would just use the new software for all reports. It saves you a chunk of work, and it's consistent with the way you used to do it. Personally, I've come to believe that it is more correct.

Feb-15-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <YouRang> I hope to run it simultaniously! To change the rules while the predictions are underway is not the right time I think. Thanks a lot for your thoughts and work on the software. It will make this more interesting and I hope to award some extra prizes for the 'pair bettings' of how two players compare to each other!
Feb-16-09  imag: Linares:

1. Aronian
1. Anand
3. Carlsen
3. Radjabov
5. Wang Yue
5. Dominguez
7. Grischuk
7. Ivanchuk

Feb-16-09  amadeus: Linares Final Standings:

1. Aronian
2. Anand
3. Radjabov
4. Ivanchuk
5. Grischuk
6. Dominguez
6. Wang Yue
8. Carlsen

Feb-17-09  EvigOptimist: 1. Carlsen +2
2. Aronian +2
3. Anand +1
4. Grischuk 0
5. Yue -1
6. Radjabov -1
7. Ivanchuk -1
8. Dominiguez -2

(rank after tiebreaks)

Feb-17-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <EvigOptimist> I have you for unshared standings 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 as you posted it. If you wanted shared standings you should have posted:

1. Carlsen +2
1. Aronian +2
3. Anand +1
4. Grischuk 0
5. Yue -1
5. Radjabov -1
5. Ivanchuk -1
8. Dominiguez -2

The CONMAN program does not understand the word "tiebreaks" hehehe..

Feb-17-09  capybara: Linares:
1.Anand
2.Carlsen
3.Aronian
4.Dominguez
5.Ivanchuk
6.Radjabov
7.Grischuk
8.Wang Yue
Feb-18-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Linares "<Predictions/Expectations>" according to <CHESSBOOKIE> game betting odds order:

1. Anand 2.72
2. Aronian 5.17
3. Carlsen 5.65
4. Radjabov 8.68
4. Ivanchuk 8.95
6. Dominguez 26.48
7. Wang Yue 28.80
8. Grischuk 33.78

See Linares: Winner

Feb-18-09  yalie: 1. Anand
2. Carlsen
3-4. Aronian, Radjabov
5-6. Grischuk, Ivanchuk
7. Wang Yue
8. Dominguez

Feb-18-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: 1. Aronian
2. Carlsen
2. Anand
4. Aronian
5. Ivanchuk
6. Wang Yue
7. Dominguez
8. Grischuk
Feb-19-09  positionalgenius: 1.Grischuk
2.Anand
3.Aronian
4.Carlsen
5.Radjabov
6.Ivanchuk
7.Wang yue
8.Dominguez
Feb-19-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <OhioChessFan> you have two Aronians!
Feb-19-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Virtual contestant <UNIBET> betting odds (posted by percyblakeney at the Linares page):

1.Anand 3.00
2.Carlsen 3.35
3.Aronian 4.35
4.Ivanchuk 7.50
4.Radjabov 7.50
6.Dominguez 20.00
6.Grischuk 20.00
8.Wang Yue 30.00

Feb-19-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: 1. Aronian
2. Carlsen
2. Anand
4. Rajabov
5. Ivanchuk
6. Wang Yue
7. Dominguez
8. Grischuk
Feb-19-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Linares has started!

Prediciton statistics:

Biggest deviation from the (updated) rating expectations (deviation):

1.<kellmano> 20
2.<YouRang> 18
2.<just a kid> 18
4.<NakoSonorense> 16

Feb-19-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Maybe even more important:

Biggest deviation from the average predictions:

1. kellmano 18
2. positionalgenius 15
3. amadeus 13
4. NakoSonorense 12
5. YouRang 12

Feb-20-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Prediction statistics:

Average prediction, Player, Highest prediction, Lowest prediction

1.64,Anand,1,7
2.58,Aronian,1,6
2.83,Carlsen,1,8
3.56,Radjabov,1,6
5.03,Ivanchuk,1,8
5.94,Dominguez,2,8
6.03,Grischuk,1,8
6.83,Wang Yue,4,8

Feb-20-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: LINARES 2009 ROUND 1 UPDATE:
Anand wins.

Linares standing 1:

1. Anand
2. Ivanchuk
2. Dominguez
2. Wang Yue
2. Aronian
2. Grischuk
2. Carlsen
8. Radjabov

PREDICTION STANDINGS 1

Maximum score: 38

Score,UserID
20,WannaBe
19,capybara
19,chessmoron
18,lostemperor
17,cromat
17,DCP23
17,just a kid
17,Where is my mind
17,YouRang
17,ELO
17,EvigOptimist
17,UNIBET
16,CHESSBOOKIE
15,MrMelad
15,nimh
15,rogge
15,imag
15,kellmano
15,positionalgenius
15,TheGladiatres
15,yalie
14,SwitchingQuylthulg
14,OhioChessFan
13,Aurora
13,iron maiden
13,Ragh
13,YuanTi
13,notyetagm
13,Robin01
12,amadeus
12,suenteus po 147
11,ahmadov
11,chancho
9,NakoSonorense
9,percyblakeney

Feb-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Correction on the average prediciton statistics: Anand never got a lower prediction than 3rd place.
Feb-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 2 UPDATE LINARES:
Anand - Aronian 0-1
Grischuk- Wang Yue 1-0

STANDINGS 2:
1-2.Aronian
1-2.Grischuk
3-6.Anand
3-6.Dominguez
3-6.Ivanchuk
3-6.Carlsen
7-8 Wang Yue
7-8. Radjabov

PREDICTION STANDINGS 2
Maximum score: 38

Score,UserID
26,just a kid
26,YouRang
24,positionalgenius
23,WannaBe
22,Aurora
22,capybara
22,cromat
22,DCP23
22,Robin01
21,CHESSBOOKIE
21,lostemperor
20,chancho
20,chessmoron
20,EvigOptimist
20,nimh
20,notyetagm
20,UNIBET
19,amadeus
19,OhioChessFan
18,imag
18,iron maiden
18,kellmano
18,MrMelad
18,TheGladiatres
18,Where is my mind
18,yalie
17,SwitchingQuylthulg
16,ELO
16,NakoSonorense
16,percyblakeney
16,rogge
16,YuanTi
15,suenteus po 147
14,ahmadov
14,Ragh

Feb-21-09  NakoSonorense: I don't really know how your system works, but am I really 16 standard deviations from the mean?!?!?

Gee, that can't be good...

Feb-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Nako> it can be good. Look at <positionalgenius> and <YouRang>. They are 15 (maybe 14) and 12 points away from the average predictions (see prediction statistics: average predictions). But they are third and shared first respectively in the standings after 3 rounds. But it is still early :-)
Feb-21-09  Ragh: What am I doing at the bottom of the table? This is certainly an unknown territory for me ;)
Feb-21-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ROUND 3: all draws..
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