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| Jul-21-11 | | Jim Bartle: I think there was a time a few years ago when Seattle was behind by a run late in a game (maybe the ninth) with a runner on second. And Ichiro bunted for a base hit. He needed to drive in the runner, not move him to third. Ichiro is one of those guys, like Willie McGee and others before him, that if they swing and miss they look so bad it seems they could never hit the ball. Yet they both had consistently high averages. In his autobiography Herzog wrote that no coach was permitted to fool with McGee's swing, no matter how many "flaws" they spotted. |
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Jul-21-11
 | | keypusher: <Jim Bartle: I think there was a time a few years ago when Seattle was behind by a run late in a game (maybe the ninth) with a runner on second. And Ichiro bunted for a base hit. He needed to drive in the runner, not move him to third.> Look, it's silly for me to argue with you about baseball. But I'll do it anyway. I don't know how many outs there are, but let's assume there are fewer than two. There are a whole lot of things that can happen. The worst would be to hit into a double play. (Unlikely with the runner on second, but possible). Next worst would be to strike out or otherwise make an out without the runner being able to reach third. Next is making an out while moving the runner up.
Next is walking, men on first and second. (If it's the bottom of the 9th, maybe moving the runner to third on an out is more valuable. I doubt it, though. Outs are hugely valuable -- that is one of the sabermetricians' central insights, I think.) Next is doing what he did -- single, runner moves to third. Next is getting a hit that drives in the runner.
Next is a two-run homer. Not a likely outcome if Babe Ruth is the batter, never mind Ichiro. (I left out fly ball, runner tags and scores from second, but I think the Odds Gods will be OK with that.) So, what Ichiro did was not the best possible thing, but it was far from the worst. Next guy comes up, men on first and third, there are a ton of ways that man on third can score. The chances of scoring two or more runs have also gone way up. And that also matters; if you score one run here you still have a 50% chance of losing the game, but if you go up by a run or more you are very likely going to win. Let's suppose Ichiro went up there with the attitude that he's going to drive the guy home or die trying. No bunting, no walks, he's going to put wood on the ball. Presumably then his probability of striking out or popping up would also rise; even the chance that he'll line the ball at a fielder and get the runner doubled off second will increase. And if he does hit a single, there's still a decent probability the runner won't make it home. (No doubt some sabermetrician has figured out exactly how often a guy scores from second on one of Ichiro's singles, but he hasn't shared the data with me.) Bottom line, it's not clear to me that what Ichiro did was bad. |
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Jul-21-11
 | | Phony Benoni: There's the story that Ty Cobb, tired of constantly being criticized for being a singles hitter, announced that he would try and hit home runs for a couple of games. Here's what happened: http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/... http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/... At which point Cobb announced that he had proved his point, and went back to hitting singles. I think batters need to be true to their natural tendencies, but also to be aware of the game situation. If that was an accurate description of the Ichiro play, it was stupid baseball. Another point is that a well-balanced lineup needs a combination of table setters and power guys. One of the Tigers problems this year is that they have plenty of the latter, but few of the former. As a result, they get their share of big innings but far too many 0's as well. Ichiro is 5' 9", 160 lbs. He seems tiny, and I doubt most expect him to hit home runs regularly. But look at Mel Ott, who hit 511 home runs at 5' 9", 170 lbs. |
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Jul-21-11
| | keypusher: <Jim Bartle> <Phony Benoni> Unsurprisingly, somebody writing for money beat me to this. <When he was chasing George Sisler's single-season hit record in 2004, he laid down a bunt with man on second and two out, with the Mariners trailing late. He was credited with a single, but the runner did not score. With Ichiro being the best contact hitter on the team (and arguably the best in baseball), the team needed him to drive in the run.....
As for Ichiro's play to finish the 2004 season, when he was laying down every sort of bunt and infield hit to reach the all-time record, can anyone tell me they wouldn't do the same thing? Playing for a last-place team that had no shot at the playoffs, going for one of baseball's most famous records is much more historically relevant than trying for a few more wins down the stretch. In fact, Ichiro's "selfishness" probably helped the Mariners, as it gave fans a reason to come to the ballpark. Despite losing 99 games, the Mariners drew 2,940,731 fans in '04, third in the league. Without Ichiro's chase at the record, less fans turn out for Seattle games, which in turn means less profit for the Mariners. There's a pretty good possibility that Mariners management encouraged Ichiro to sacrifice wins for the record's sake.> http://bleacherreport.com/articles/... Of course, that means that, viewed objectively and leaving Sisler's record aside, PB, Jim, and the sportswriter all agree that what Ichiro did was stupid and/or selfish. So I must concede the point. (For now.) |
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Jul-21-11
| | Phony Benoni: Chasing records is another kettle of fish. Ty Cobb, just to name one, was not averse to sitting down at the end of the season to protect his batting average, though he at least kept up appearances by claiming injuries. How many players have subordinated their team's interest to go for the cycle or some other goal? Sometimes it gets out of hand. Players getting booed for bunting to break up a no-hitter. The whole Drysdale-Dietz situation when the scoreless streak was going on. I tried to find a little more detail on the Ichiro situation. What inning was it? How far behind were they? But scanning through all of Seattle's games for that month, I couldn't find the situation. At any rate, it bothers me when situations like this arise and tamper with the "purity" of the game. In the novel "The Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant" (the basis of "Damn Yankees"), the Senators are facing pitchter Bobby Shantz, who is one out from a no-hitter with Joe Hardy up. He's always admired Shantz, and decides to strike out deliberately. But quite against his will, he hits the ball over the fence for a game-winning home run. Tragic, but real baseball. Bill Bevins. Ralph Branca. |
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Jul-22-11
 | | perfidious: <Phony Benoni> Since you invoke the name Bill Bevens, I must post the following box score, which was, ironically, the swan song for both principals, as neither Bevens nor Lavagetto ever appeared in another major league game: http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/... |
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| Jul-22-11 | | Jim Bartle: Lavagetto lived less than a mile from us when I was a kid, but I never met him. He was manager of the Senators at the time; only years later did I learn he'd been a good player, too, when I heard about the Bevins game. |
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| Jul-22-11 | | Jim Bartle: I wonder about the importance of the cycle, since it can possibly lead to a player not taking a base he could have gotten easily. Say a team's a run behind in the ninth. The first batter has a double, triple and a homer. He hits a ball to the fence. Does he stay at first for the cycle or take second to help win the game? I assume the latter. |
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Jul-22-11
| | Phony Benoni: <JB> In that case, not going for the extra base would clearly be a selfish, "unethical" thing to do. It might be justifiable if the team has a large lead, but would never be fully "right". By the way, <perfidous> caught me on one thing; it's <Bevens>, not <Bevins>. But a small clarification: though neither Bevens nor Lavagetto ever appeared in another regular season game, they both played again in that World Series. Bevens pitched two scoreless innings for the Yankees in game seven, while Lavagetto had three more pinch hitting appearances. |
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Jul-22-11
| | keypusher: <I tried to find a little more detail on the Ichiro situation. What inning was it? How far behind were they? But scanning through all of Seattle's games for that month, I couldn't find the situation.> It's entirely possible it didn't happen as the sportwriter recounts it. For example, there might not have been two outs. Heightening the drama, sort of like Lasker vs Capablanca, 1914 commonly being described as having been played closer to the end of the tournament than it actually was. |
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Jul-22-11
| | perfidious: <Phony Benoni> We done caught each other out there! <Jim> Very early this season, there was a game Rays-Red Sox in which Sam Fuld needed (I believe) a double for the cycle, with the outcome long since decided, and much was made of the fact that he didn't stop at second. Wish I could remember what he said, but it was something on the lines of playing the game as it should be played. |
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| Jul-23-11 | | talisman: Jim Landis...White Sox...1960's...fast...played center field in mlb...
what was his first position in Pro Ball?... |
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Jul-23-11
| | Phony Benoni: Before looking it up I'll say catcher. That's usually right in these situations. |
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Jul-23-11
| | Phony Benoni: Wrong again! |
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Jul-23-11
| | perfidious: <Talisman> Here's a page on him:http://www.baseball-reference.com/m... Landis had a curious career, as I'd rather have thought he could have stuck around a bit longer, given his formidable defensive skills. |
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Jul-23-11
| | perfidious: Just had a go at the CBS webpage for the standings.... Two months to go, and they already have some magic numbers posted. Unbelievable. |
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Jul-23-11
| | Phony Benoni: <perfidious> Here's the SABR biography of Landis: http://bioproj.sabr.org/bioproj.cfm... No real reason is given for his retirement, other than he just decided it was time to go. He bounced around his last few years, and probably just didn't want to hang on. And, yes, it is rather early for magic numbers. Nobody's more than twenty games out of first yet. And why CBS didn't post all the numbers is curious. However, it looks like each team sends two from the East this year: Boston and New York from the AL, Philadelphia and Atlanta from the NL. The Central divisions are three/four team races; don't trust the Tigers. The Rangers recently had a 12-game winning streak and are still only three games ahead of the Angels, so that should be a barnburner. The Giants look to be in reasonably good shape. |
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| Jul-24-11 | | talisman: <Phony> 3b!... now here is how i know...1961...topps....website...checkoutmycards-
.....:) |
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Jul-24-11
 | | chancho: User: baseball |
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Jul-25-11
| | perfidious: <Phony Benoni> Winning the East in both leagues looks like a plum, as in each, the division winner probably finishes with the best overall record, thus faces the Central winner in the first round, instead of the Western champion. |
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Jul-26-11
| | keypusher: <perfidious: <Phony Benoni> Winning the East in both leagues looks like a plum, as in each, the division winner probably finishes with the best overall record, thus faces the Central winner in the first round, instead of the Western champion.> I really don't like the wild card. Pre-WC, Yankees fans would be just strangled with angst right now, to be trailing the Red Sox after Boston's horrible start. But now, no one really cares here. |
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| Jul-26-11 | | noendgame: Ichiro regularly entertains the crowd by hitting home runs during BP, so much so, that it has been suggested that if he were invited he could win the home run derby. They are not Thome tape measures but line drives with monotonous consistency. The main complaint about Ichiro is that his on base percentage is not especially good for a leadoff hitter. That is a result of the fact that he often goes for the first pitch with his one step toward first slap technique. It gets him a bunch of infield hits, but as he loses a step (which may have already started this year) it will be less effective. A possibility would be to drop to 2nd or 3rd in the lineup and take a more patient approach at the plate. If he could trade 20-30 hits for a few more walks and doubles, his longevity might be aided. But he is fairly stubborn and may not wish to make a change late in his career. |
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Jul-27-11
| | perfidious: Here's a list I just ran across: http://www.baseball-reference.com/b... One surprise for me was that Mantle had only four 100-RBI seasons in his career. It's just possible that he might have driven in more with 1-2 hitters in front of him who actually reached base a little. |
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| Jul-27-11 | | Jim Bartle: I agree that baseball was better when four teams made the playoffs, not eight. Baseball has added the excitement of an extra round of playoffs, but it eliminated pennant races between top teams. The last year before the wild card (1993) San Francisco and Atlanta fought it out to the last day (the Dodgers beat the Giants by about 10 runs and knocked them out) to see who would win the division and go to the playoffs. This sort of pennant race (or a race between good Boston and Yankee teams) will not happen again. Both SF and Atlanta had won more than 100 games, and today both would have been coasting into the playoffs. Which is the champion and which the wild card has little importance. |
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| Jul-27-11 | | Jim Bartle: Concerning Mantle, true, he didn't have that many 100-RBI seasons. (He did have a 99, a 97 and a 94, but it's still an interesting point.) But he scored an unbelievably high number of runs, nine consecutive years over 100, and usually over 120. Aside from not enough men on base when he batted, I think being walked more than 100 times a year had a lot to do with it. Teams didn't like to pitch to him with men on base, I guess, and it's tough to drive in runs with a walk. |
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