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Jan-25-06
 | | cu8sfan: <badmove> I'm very sorry but I'll have to be strict. The same goes for SEMENELIN who posted very shortly after the round had started. I know this contest is for fun and I might just as well add your prediction but a) for overall standings I would have to exclude you for this round which is too much work to do.
b) someone might say that he/she forgot to post predictions as well and then didn't bother to post them late as I wouldn't count them anyway. That wouldn't be fair, either. I hope you'll still participate and have fun with the contest! Cheers! |
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Jan-25-06
| | cu8sfan: In my previous post about our combined predictions I forgot: Bacrot - Kamsky: 16 /32 /8 --> 1/2
So far we're going 5/5! Two results still missing. |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <Individual highlights for round 10> BEST PREDICTORS (6 for 7):
Bobak Zahmat, cade, iron maiden, me to play, percyblakeney WORST PREDICTORS (1 for 7):
nintenchess, offramp
(I should have a category for "most consistently mediocre predictors", so that I could get mentioned once in a while...) GAME WITH FEWEST CORRECT PREDICTIONS:
van Wely-Leko[1-0]
Predicted by: VishyFan! |
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| Jan-25-06 | | cade: Yey! Mentioned in dispatches! Very good prediction by VishyFan for v.Welys win. |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <cade: Yey! Mentioned in dispatches! Very good prediction by VishyFan for v.Welys win.> Yes, a very good prediction. If we all bet $1 on each game and divided those bets among the winners, VishyFan would have raked in $56 on that one game! Jackpot! VishyFan also got a respectable 4 of 7 overall. |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <TechN9ne> At least you're not alone. According to my stats, we have overall predicted Kamsky games correctly just 36.6% of the time -- the lowest percentage of any player. For the other 12 players combined, we are averaging correct predictions 50.25% of the time. <For fun>: Does anyone want to guess which player we are predicting correctly most often? :) |
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| Jan-25-06 | | suenteus po 147: <YouRang> Topalov? ;) |
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| Jan-25-06 | | babakova: <YouRang> My guess is Leko. |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <suenteus po 147> Not Topalov. He's 6th on the list at 47.7% <babakova> Not Leko (but close). He's 2nd on the list at 59.9% Who will our winner be?? :) |
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| Jan-25-06 | | badmove: My predictions (round 11)
Karjakin-Sokolov 1/2
Aronian-Gelfand 1-0
Ivanchuk-Topalov 0-1
Leko-Mamedyarov 1/2
Kamsky-van Wely 1/2
Adams-Bacrot 1/2
Anand-Tiviakov 1-0
PS: <cu8sfan> I made 4/10 today, but I regret to have posted late. I was completely honest in that sense, but I understand your reasons. PS2: I guess <acirce> has the edge to win the contest. When you get an advantage, you can predict draws the rest of the rounds and then ensure in average at least four pints per round. I realize that he has posted all draws the last rounds. PS3: <YouRang> The right answer is Tiviakov |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <badmove> Not Tiviakov! Nice try though -- he's 3rd on the list at 59.8%. Someone's gotta get this pretty soon! :) |
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| Jan-25-06 | | badmove: In any case <YouRang>, is one of the Dutch players. If not Tiviakov, at least the most predictable should be Sokolov |
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| Jan-25-06 | | bobbyboomer: <YouRang> I'll take a shot at it. Loek van Wely |
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| Jan-25-06 | | YouRang: <bobbyboomer> Not van Wely, he's 4th on the list at 58.5%. <badmove> is correct about Sokolov (he guessed it in 2 tries, but hey, not too bad). Sokolov has been by far the easiest player for us to predict. We have correctly predicted his games an 66.9% of the time! If you look at his games, you can see why: He generally manages to get a draw unless he's playing one of the top aggressive players -- then he loses (Topalov, Gelfand, Ivanchuk). The main exception to this rule was his draw with Anand. This is pretty much in line with the way most people predict games. |
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| Jan-25-06 | | babakova: Hmm I figured most people see Leko as a drawer and therefore mostly predict his games turn out drawn, especially at the end of an event. The times he plays obvious underdogs in terms of rating,the dutch trio for instance, shouldnt make a big difference I thought. Well.. I was close, but when I see the reasoning behind Sokolov that sounds more logical. |
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Jan-26-06
| | cu8sfan: <I don't want to pile on but I must say I find it silly that anyone would predict all draws in a round and do so more then once. Is there some major cash prize on the line here? I thought this was just for fun.> I don't find it silly. We - or at least I am - trying to predict what the REAL outcome will be and sometimes an all-draw-day will happen and it's not stupid to predict it. I don't see this as a sympathy prediction contest, where we predict the players we like to win. |
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| Jan-26-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <cu8sfan> How many tournaments you will organize a prediction contest? |
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| Jan-26-06 | | PinkPanther: <cu8sfan>
Um..In case you were actually watching the games, an all draw day has yet to occur. |
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Jan-26-06
| | cu8sfan: <PinkPanther> I WAS watching the games and even though we haven't had an all draw day yet it is just as legitimate to predict one as it is to predict any other set of results. <Bobak Zahmat> I'll cover the big four (Wijk, Linares, Sofja, Dortmund) and probably one or two others that might be of interest to a large crowd. |
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| Jan-26-06 | | YouRang: <PinkPanther><In case you were actually watching the games, an all draw day has yet to occur.> Not in this tournament, no. I think <cu8sfan> was speaking in general, and there have been all-draw days in tournaments past. As far as <acirce> picking all draws: Isn't that his choice to make? Why should one contestant care how another makes his/her picks? And yes, this contest is for fun. Is there any reason to think that <acirce> isn't having fun? |
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| Jan-26-06 | | Bent Bexley: <cu8sfan> With respect, I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this. I do find it silly. Pointless, actually but this isn't that important to make a big deal of. |
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Jan-26-06
| | cu8sfan: I wish all disagreements would be settled like this. (-: |
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| Jan-26-06 | | hitman84: <cu8sfan><ascii art image of Alexandra Kosteniuk! (-:>cool man i'd love to see it i also have ascii art of gary's autograph <;-> |
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| Jan-26-06 | | YouRang: <cu8sfan> Earlier you mentioned (on my forum) that you liked the idea of awarding more points for predicting wins/losses than for predicting draws. A simple method for doing this would be to make decided games worth 2 points and drawn games worth 1 point. Then: -- If a game is decided (1-0 or 0-1) and you had predicted the correct outcome, you go 2-for-2. Otherwise, you go 0-for-2. -- If a game is drawn (1/2-1/2) and you had predicted a draw, you go 1-for-1. Otherwise you go 0-for-1. This would make the contest more rewarding for correctly picking decided games, and <DRAWER> wouldn't always do so well (unless a lot of games do end in a draw). Anyway, if you would like to use a system like this (for a future tournament, perhaps), it would not be difficult for me to add that option to the program. |
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Jan-26-06
 | | Joshka: <YouRang> Great idea about the 2pts for a correct win prediction indeed!! |
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