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| Jan-26-06 | | acirce: Isn't this site just great. I decide to take a break, the most important reason being all the hostility and bickering on certain pages and the lack of serious discussion, but then I figure that I can at least take part in the participation contest, doesn't cost anything. So I post my predictions, nothing else, just plain result predicting, 7 games per round, and THAT makes people start picking and squabbling. Jesus. |
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| Jan-26-06 | | NakoSonorense: Lol. Don't listen to them, acirce. They're just jealous. |
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Jan-26-06
 | | Joshka: <acirce> Let's face it, you have the lead, thanks to your wisdom in picking correctly! Now if you start predicting all draws, you are assured of at least 4 points on average in each remaining rounds, and you coast to victory! Great stragedy, I commend you! Its kinda like matches where draws count, a player gets a one point lead, and can coast to victory. <YouRang> His idea is best I think as it rewards folks who go out on a limb to predict a decisive result. Now you have every right to predict all draws if you want. It basically comes down to jealousy over your wise and clever way now to win the contest. But you had to be good to GET the lead in the first place, so no one should complain! |
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| Jan-26-06 | | acirce: <Joshka> I have no intention of starting to "predict all draws" just to secure victory. I just pick what I think is the most likely result in each game. If others want to pick results that they don't actually believe in, sure, let them. That said, I actually want to change my latest predictions, nothing to do with this silly discussion, I genuinely changed my mind. I think that the rules allow it (cu8sfan?) Karjakin - Sokolov 1/2
Aronian - Gelfand 1/2
Ivanchuk - Topalov 1/2
Anand - Tiviakov 1-0
Leko - Mamedyarov 1/2
Kamsky - van Wely 1/2
Adams - Bacrot 1/2 |
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| Jan-26-06 | | babakova: <YouRang> I like this suggestion very much, takes away the safe and easy approach. |
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Jan-26-06
 | | cu8sfan: <all> First of all, the prediction contest should be fun. Some like to win it, some like to participate, some like to try and be right, I just hope you all have fun! <YouRang> The idea of awarding more for a win than a draw is interesting but I won't change from the rules we have now. A draw is part of the game and by the way, <Drawer> rarely wins tournaments, even though he's often close. <acirce> Don't take the critics too serious. Maybe they're just jealous. And yes, the rules DO allow to change predictions, the predictions you post last will be counted. But don't feel obliged to change from your all draw prediction. |
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| Jan-26-06 | | Bent Bexley: I don't want to upset <acirce> with <hostility and bickering>. Sincerely. <I just pick what I think is the most likely result in each game.> All of us here know about the high percentage of draws in top level chess. A draw is almost always the most likely outcome. How interesting and fun would a contest like this be if we all predicted all draws (or even 6 out of 7 draws) every or nearly every round? |
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| Jan-26-06 | | Jafar219: <cu8sfan> what if white wins 2 point,draw 1 point and black wins 3 point?? |
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| Jan-26-06 | | Father Karras: Why is this Acirce ALWAYS in the same spot in the Prediction Table while others get shifted around after every round???? It's not fair! |
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| Jan-26-06 | | BishopofBlunder: <acirce: <Joshka> I have no intention of starting to "predict all draws" just to secure victory. I just pick what I think is the most likely result in each game. If others want to pick results that they don't actually believe in, sure, let them. That said, I actually want to change my latest predictions, nothing to do with this silly discussion, I genuinely changed my mind. I think that the rules allow it (cu8sfan?) Karjakin - Sokolov 1/2
Aronian - Gelfand 1/2
Ivanchuk - Topalov 1/2
Anand - Tiviakov 1-0
Leko - Mamedyarov 1/2
Kamsky - van Wely 1/2
Adams - Bacrot 1/2>
<Father Karras: Why is this Acirce ALWAYS in the same spot in the Prediction Table while others get shifted around after every round???? It's not fair!> See?! I told you <acirce> was cheating! :) [It really is lonely at the top] |
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| Jan-26-06 | | BishopofBlunder: <cu8sfan: And yes, the rules DO allow to change predictions, the predictions you post last will be counted. > In this case, I would also like to change my predictions. Now, starting in Round 1:... |
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Jan-27-06
| | cu8sfan: <BishopofBlunder> Very clever! (-: |
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| Jan-27-06 | | cromat: hi, because the discution about acirce, i try to equal him and i want to risk and change my pred for r11 too (perhaps i lose 2nd place -lol) S. Karjakin - I. Sokolov 1-0
L. Aronian - B. Gelfand 1/2
V. Ivanchuk - V. Topalov 1/2
V. Anand - S. Tiviakov 1-0
P. Leko - S. Mamedyarov 1/2
G. Kamsky - L. van Wely 1/2
M. Adams - E. Bacrot 1/2
by the way, acirce may always predict what he wants (eg like Drawer) and changes his predictions before the games. discutions like "<acirce> was cheating!" - sure r only jokes. predictions r funny and we dont win money (or? -lol).
perhaps acirce knows the players and chess better than us. respect <acirce> and congrat |
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Jan-27-06
| | cu8sfan: Here are our predictions as a group:
<Pairing: White wins /Draw /Black wins> Adams - Bacrot: 31/27/0 --> 1-0
Anand - Tiviakov: 53/5/0 --> 1-0
Aronian - Gelfand: 2/51/5 --> 1/2
Ivanchuk - Topalov: 7/35/16 --> 1/2
Kamsky - van Wely: 8/44/6 --> 1/2
Karjakin - Sokolov: 26/31/1 --> 1/2
Leko - Mamedyarov: 12/43/3 --> 1/2 |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <Individual highlights for round 11> BEST PREDICTORS: (5 for 7):
percyblakeney, YouRang(!)
WORST PREDICTORS (1 for 7):
Appaz, badmove, Broon Bottle, chancho, dimradil, you vs yourself GAMES CORRECTLY PREDICTED BY THE FEWEST PEOPLE:
Anand-Tiviakov[1/2]
Predicted by: Joshka + Dim Weasel + cu8sfan + Bobak Zahmat + Annie K. Kamsky-van Wely[1-0]
Predicted by: twinlark + suenteus po 147 + Robin01 + offramp + NakoSonorense + mikejaqua + Jafar219 + Father Karras |
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Jan-27-06
 | | WannaBe: Somebody tell <iron maiden> that <acirce> have stolen his identity! =) <BEST PREDICTORS: (5 for 7):
percyblakeney, YouRang(!) >
FIXED! FIXED!! I demand a recount!! =) |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <WannaBe><FIXED! FIXED!! I demand a recount!!> I demanded a recount back in round 4 when I went 1 for 7 (which was kind of awkward since I was the one who had done the counting). :-p |
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| Jan-27-06 | | Montreal1666: <cu8sfan> you could consider giving more points ( 2 or 3) for a correct decisive prediction. The most likely outcome of any chess game is a draw and the present system forces people to just predict lots of draws. |
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| Jan-27-06 | | grobmaverick: Round 12
I predict a total of 224 moves to be made by the players of the white pieces tomorrow. |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: Another <Guessing Contest>:
I mentioned earlier that, as a group, we are having the most success in predicting Sokolov's games (currently 64.9% correct) and the least success in predicting Kamsky's games (currently 34.5% correct). There is another player that we have been lousy at predicting. So far, we have correctly predicted this player's games just 38.0% of the time (the lowest percentage, next to Kamsky). <Can you guess which player this is?> :) Rule: One guess per person... |
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| Jan-27-06 | | badmove: <YouRang> Thanks for the honourable mention. <WORST PREDICTORS (1 for 7): badmove> It is curious that I have been mentioned in the category of worst predictor once and <GAMES CORRECTLY PREDICTED BY THE FEWEST PEOPLE> twice. I guess, I will try to be mentioned in <BEST PREDICTOR> (ha ha) and cover all categories. My predictions (round 11):
I. Sokolov - E. Bacrot 1/2
L. van Wely - M. Adams 1/2
S. Mamedyarov - G. Kamsky 1-0
S. Tiviakov - P. Leko 0-1
V. Topalov - V. Anand 0-1
B. Gelfand - V. Ivanchuk 1/2
S. Karjakin - L. Aronian 0-1
PS: I predicted +1 for Aronian at the end, so he is "forced" to win the next two games. And I predicted Mamedyarov to get -2, so he is "forced" to win another game. Also Anand is "forced" to win against Topalov (although by heart now, Topalov would win this) and Leko "needs" a +1, so he needs to win. Otherwise, I will lose some money ... |
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| Jan-27-06 | | badmove: And about the modification of the contest for giving more points to decisive results, I agree, but I guess for the next tournament. Or probably to order for "money" accumulation is the best idea (like a real bet), because you also may try to pick for unexpected results for winning more "money", it is more "risky", etc. I guess some simple mathematical formula could be made so simulate that behavior. |
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| Jan-27-06 | | badmove: <YouRang> About the other player who has been difficult to predict, the answer is clear: Aronian. |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <badmove> Aronian is not a bad guess, but no. We are predicting Aronian's games correctly 48.7% of the time. :) |
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| Jan-27-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <Can you guess which player this is?> <YouRang> Bacrot? |
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