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Jan-27-06
 | | WannaBe: tiviakov would be my guess. |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <EmperorAtahualpa> Not Bacrot! We have been predicting his games correctly 47.3% of the time. Not Tiviakov either. Guesses so far:
1. Aronian 48.7% - by <badmove> 2. Bacrot 47.3% - by <EmperorAtahualpa> 3. Tiviakov 55.1% - by <WannaBe> Kamsky (34.5%) has been the hardest player to predict, but who has been the 2nd hardest player (at 38.0%)? :) |
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Jan-27-06
 | | Annie K.: <YouRang> Karjakin? |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <Annie K.> Karjakin is a VERY good guess, but not quite right! We have been predicting Karjakin's games correctly 43.0% of the time (only Kamsky and the mystery player have a lower percentage). Guesses so far:
1. Aronian 48.7% <badmove> 2. Bacrot 47.3% <EmperorAtahualpa> 3. Tiviakov 55.1% <WannaBe> 4. Karjakin 43.0% <Annie K.> Who is the "mystery player"? We've been correctly predicting the outcome of his games only 38.0% of the time. :) (Okay, if anyone wants to make a 2nd guess, go ahead...) |
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| Jan-27-06 | | radu stancu: <There is another player that we have been lousy at predicting. So far, we have correctly predicted this player's games just 38.0% of the time (the lowest percentage, next to Kamsky). <Can you guess which player this is?> :)> Leko? I know I had problems with him... :) |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: <radu stancu> Not Leko (we're actually doing a pretty good job of predicting his games - people have been expect lots of draws from him, and he indeed has seven). Guesses so far:
1. Aronian 48.7% <badmove> 2. Bacrot 47.3% <EmperorAtahualpa> 3. Tiviakov 55.1% <WannaBe> 4. Karjakin 43.0% <Annie K.> 5. Leko 56.3 <radu stancu> A little hint: I brought it up only because I was a little surprised to see that we've done so poorly (38%) on predicting this player's games. Who is this "mystery player"? :) |
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| Jan-27-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <YouRang> Ivanchuk? |
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| Jan-27-06 | | YouRang: YouRang: <EmperorAtahualpa> Nope, not Ivanchuk. :) Guesses so far:
1. Aronian 48.7% <badmove> 2. Bacrot 47.3% <EmperorAtahualpa> 3. Tiviakov 55.1% <WannaBe> 4. Karjakin 43.0% <Annie K.> 5. Leko 56.3 <radu stancu> 6. Ivanchuk 46.0% <EmperorAtahualpa> ♔♕♗♙♖♔♘♕♗♙♖♔♘♕♗♙♖♔♘♕♗♙♖♔♘♕♗♙♖♔♘♕♗♙♔
Well, I think it's time for me to reveal <THE ANSWER> It is...............Anand!
We've predicted his games correctly only 38% of the time. I suspect that we've predicted lots of wins for him in games where he has settled for a draw. (And of course, NO one predicted his loss to Kamsky). |
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Jan-28-06
 | | cu8sfan: Our combined predictions for today:
<Pairing: White wins /Draw /Black wins> Gelfand - Ivanchuk: 3/38/12 --> 1/2
Karjakin - Aronian: 8/40/5 --> 1/2
Mamedyarov - Kamsky: 12/33/8 --> 1/2
Sokolov - Bacrot: 0/47/6 --> 1/2
Tiviakov - Leko: 2/43/8 --> 1/2
Topalov - Anand: 13/35/5 --> 1/2
van Wely - Adams: 1/45/7 --> 1/2
Oops, as a group we predict all draws. |
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| Jan-28-06 | | Chesstosterone: <TechN9ne> Correct your prediction, you wrote incomplete in Adams-Mamedyarov, I guess is 1/2, but also could be 1-0!!! You can win the prediction contest (although <acirce> has the advantage), so don't let escape the victory because of a typing mistake. PS: Although you prediction on Anand-Gelfand is a bit optimistic considerind the tiredness (if you saw the game today) of players, but you have did a good job before. |
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Jan-29-06
| | cu8sfan: Here are our combined predictions for the last round: <Pairing: White wins /Draw /Black wins> Adams - Mamedyarov: 25/28/0 --> 1/2
Anand - Gelfand: 26/26/1 --> 1/2 or 1-0
Aronian - Sokolov: 9/43/1 --> 1/2
Bacrot - van Wely: 3/50/0 --> 1/2
Ivanchuk - Karjakin: 17/35/1 --> 1/2
Kamsky - Tiviakov: 15/35/3 --> 1/2
Leko - Topalov: 3/44/6 --> 1/2 |
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Jan-29-06
| | cu8sfan: Lol! Check out page 8 of my forum, these two posts are right below each other: <
Jan-24-06
PinkPanther:
Sokolov-Adams .5-.5 (although I wouldn't put 0-1 past Adams...Sokolov is really hitting his Corus stride now)
Bacrot-Kamsky .5-.5
Van Wely-Leko .5-.5
Mamedyarov-Anand .5-.5
Tiviakov-Ivanchuk .5-.5
Topalov-Aronian .5-.5
Gelfand-Karjakin .5-.5
Jan-24-06
PinkPanther: Why is it that all acirce ever does is predict draws?
> |
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Jan-29-06
| | Annie K.: So I wasn't the only one who noticed that? LOL!
<cu8sfan>, I suggest you keep those two posts for posterity. ;) |
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| Jan-29-06 | | Chesstosterone: CONGRATS TO <TechN9ne>, <cromat> and <acirce>, for shared first in the contest. |
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Jan-29-06
 | | TheAlchemist: <cu8sfan> Don't worry, recorded and immortalized at User: Memorable Quotes. Thanks for pointing it out! |
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| Jan-29-06 | | PinkPanther: <cu8sfan>
What is your point? That I chose all draws except for one game in one round? Please, go back for me and show me how many rounds acirce picked all draws. Or if you want to make it a bit more broad, show me how many rounds where he picked either all draws or all draws with just one decisive result. |
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| Jan-29-06 | | TechN9ne: well chesstosterone saved me, the "risk" payed off. i really didn't expect this many decisive games in the last round. |
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Jan-30-06
| | cu8sfan: <PinkPanther> My point is that people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. And by the way, read your post carefully, it was all draws, not all draws except for one game. <acirce> won the contest and you didn't so I don't see why you criticize his predictions. And if you have just a little bit sense of humor left, you will agree that these two posts of yours taken together ARE funny. |
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| Jan-30-06 | | BishopofBlunder: All in all, another fabulous prediction tournament hosted by the inimitable <cu8sfan>. Thank you, sir, there will be a cheese log in this for you. And a hearty congratulations to <acirce> on his victory. Don't spend all the prize money in one place. |
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Jan-30-06
| | cu8sfan: Hi y'all! I present you the results of the prediction contest for Wijk aan Zee 2006! We have three(!) joint winners! Congratulations to <acirce>, <cromat> and <TechN9ne>! All of them scored 55 points for an average of 4.23 right predictions per round. <Drawer> came in fourth with 51 points. Please let me know if you think I've gotten your results wrong. Overall standings will be posted in a minute. <UserID: Score /Rounds /Avg. per round> acirce: 55 /13 /4.23
cromat: 55 /13 /4.23
TechN9ne: 55 /13 /4.23
<DRAWER>: 51 /13 /3.92
larrewl: 51 /13 /3.92
percyblakeney: 51 /13 /3.92
WannaBe: 50 /13 /3.85
yoozum: 50 /13 /3.85
Chopin: 49 /13 /3.77
iron maiden: 49 /13 /3.77
kolobok: 49 /13 /3.77
Tassadar: 49 /13 /3.77
cade: 48 /13 /3.69
lostemperor: 48 /13 /3.69
Dim Weasel: 47 /12 /3.92
excmo: 47 /13 /3.62
Annie K.: 46 /12 /3.83
Appaz: 46 /13 /3.54
BishopofBlunder: 46 /13 /3.54
cu8sfan: 46 /13 /3.54
grobmaverick: 46 /13 /3.54
Assassinater: 45 /12 /3.75
bobbyboomer: 45 /12 /3.75
Broon Bottle: 45 /12 /3.75
zarra: 45 /12 /3.75
me to play: 45 /13 /3.46
yalie: 45 /13 /3.46
YouRang: 45 /13 /3.46
mikejaqua: 44 /12 /3.67
Joshka: 44 /13 /3.38
firebyrd: 43 /11 /3.91
KingG: 43 /11 /3.91
babakova: 43 /13 /3.31
Bent Bexley: 43 /13 /3.31
peabody88: 43 /13 /3.31
Robin01: 43 /13 /3.31
you vs yourself: 43 /13 /3.31
djmercury: 42 /12 /3.50
Montreal1666: 42 /12 /3.50
EmperorAtahualpa: 42 /13 /3.23
lmreith: 42 /13 /3.23
viapori: 42 /13 /3.23
radu stancu: 40 /13 /3.08
suenteus po 147: 40 /13 /3.08
VishyFan: 39 /12 /3.25
badmove: 38 /12 /3.17
NakoSonorense: 38 /12 /3.17
nintenchess: 36 /12 /3.00
dimradil: 36 /13 /2.77
PinkPanther: 34 /10 /3.40
twinlark: 33 /11 /3.00
Resignation Trap: 33 /12 /2.75
petrovalovski: 28 /8 /3.50
Father Karras: 27 /10 /2.70
Bobak Zahmat: 26 /8 /3.25
offramp: 26 /9 /2.89
<WHITER>: 26 /13 /2.00
<RANDOM>: 25 /13 /1.92
SEMENELIN: 23 /7 /3.29
Jafar219: 23 /9 /2.56
sire: 21 /5 /4.20
Endgame: 18 /5 /3.60
<BLACKER>: 14 /13 /1.08
Xerox: 13 /4 /3.25
AdrianP: 12 /4 /3.00
chancho: 12 /6 /2.00
Chunkey Monkey: 11 /3 /3.67
Ibelox: 11 /3 /3.67
samikd: 9 /2 /4.50
EricCartman: 7 /2 /3.50
ScorpionFrog: 6 /1 /6.00
jmi: 6 /2 /3.00
fxenderby: 6 /3 /2.00
s4life: 5 /1 /5.00
ARTIN: 4 /1 /4.00
DanielBryant: 4 /1 /4.00
klausewitz: 4 /1 /4.00
brankat: 3 /1 /3.00
Ingolf: 3 /1 /3.00
pawn52: 3 /1 /3.00
Progman: 3 /1 /3.00
refutor: 3 /1 /3.00 |
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Jan-30-06
| | cu8sfan: This are the overall standings in the prediction contest 2006. Results include the Russian Championship 2005 and Wijk aan Zee 2006: <Score: UserID>
8: cu8sfan
7: iron maiden
5: acirce, cade, cromat, larrewl, percyblakeney, TechN9ne, you vs yourself 4: Assassinater, KingG, WannaBe, yoozum
3: Chopin, kolobok, lostemperor, Tassadar, VishyFan
2: Annie K., Appaz, babakova, BishopofBlunder, Dim Weasel, excmo, grobmaverick 1: Bent Bexley, bobbyboomer, Broon Bottle, firebyrd, Joshka, me to play, mikejaqua, peabody88, Robin01, suenteus po 147, twinlark, yalie, YouRank, zarra Next up is Linares! Thank you all for participating and for making this very easy for me by following the rules. And I especially would like to thank <YouRang> for writing the excellent "Contest Manager" that will help me do many more prediction contests! |
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| Jan-30-06 | | SnoopDogg: May I make a suggestion for Linares? I didn't participate because all you have to do is guess all draws for all rounds and you get in the top five easy. Why not make decisive games correct count for more and even UPSET picks count for even more. |
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| Jan-30-06 | | PinkPanther: I was looking at the Adams game, sorry. But my point still stands. How many times did I predict a round like that and how many did he? Tell me that. |
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| Jan-30-06 | | me to play: After some miserable early rounds, including an 0 for 7 and I think another 1 for 7 round, I feel quite happy that I was able to claw back and finish "in the points"...albeit just barely.
Thanks cu8sfan for another great contest. |
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Jan-30-06
| | cu8sfan: MY prediction contest is here to find the kibitzer that predicts most results correctly. Therefore I will not change the scoring system, it's 1 for a white win, 1 for a draw, 1 for a black win. If you want to make it more attractive by using another scoring formula then go ahead, make your own contest. You can even copy the predictions from my page. If the most likely outcome of a chess game in a super GM tournament is a draw then that's just the way it is and no predictor can be blamed for this. Fact is that <acirce>, <TechN9ne> and <cromat> had the most results right. They did take a different approach though but who cares? Just for the statistics:
<cromat> predicted 6 black wins, 15 white wins and 70 draws. <TechN9ne> predicted 9 black wins, 16 white wins and 66 draws. <acirce> predicted 2 black wins, 7 white wins and 82 draws. <Drawer> predicted 91 draws. I don't think <cromat> or <TechN9ne> were better than <acirce>. If someone else does, that's fine with me, but I won't change the standings because of that. |
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