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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 161 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER FINAL

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 330

Score,UserID

301,WannaBe
292,isemeria
282,moronovich
~~~~~~
280,LucB
278,YouRang
277,Aurora
274,Karposian
260,MountainMatt
259,rogge
254,SwitchingQuylthulg
253,Golden Executive
253,The Last Straw
251,Diademas
249,WinKing
245,KKDEREK
232,jsy
231,ashishshukla299
223,chessmoron
222,OhioChessFan
210,lostemperor
204,whiteshark
204,wordfunph
181,Penguincw
177,bugabay

Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER FINAL

Earnings,UserID

$59.23,WannaBe
♕$20.65,moronovich
$20.65,YouRang
~~~~~~
$17.26,MountainMatt
$9.25,LucB
$8.27,isemeria
$7.19,Diademas
$4.82,SwitchingQuylthulg
$4.63,Aurora
$2.89,Karposian
$-3.33,Golden Executive
$-3.54,lostemperor
$-5.05,chessmoron
$-5.55,The Last Straw
$-7.96,wordfunph
$-8.57,KKDEREK
$-8.57,rogge
$-10.75,WinKing
$-14.46,ashishshukla299
$-15.44,jsy
$-15.55,OhioChessFan
$-15.81,whiteshark
$-18.70,Penguincw
$-21.53,bugabay

Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$24.00,Giri-equal-Kramnik, YouRang

$24.00,Kramnik-equal-Svidler, moronovich

$24.00,Topalov-above-Aronian, WannaBe

$24.00,Topalov-above-Kramnik, MountainMatt

$12.00,Caruana-equal-Topalov, lostemperor + SwitchingQuylthulg

$12.00,Grischuk-above-Caruana, Diademas + WannaBe

$12.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, chessmoron + WannaBe

$6.00,Grischuk-above-Aronian, Diademas + Karposian + LucB + WannaBe

$6.00,Karjakin-above-Aronian, Aurora + isemeria + LucB + WannaBe

Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <WannaBe>♔ takes all (and one set of medal is therefore awarded). Winning all three rankers (virtually a Triple Crown)! He was already on top in the Hall of Fame medal list and now extends his lead! Maybe somewhat to his own surprise at the start :P

<isemeria>♕ and <moronovich>♕ won Silver in the Absolute- and Pair Betting ranker respectively. Not to mention second and third places in the Square ranker.

Top hall of famers <YouRang>♖ (2x: Absolute- and Pair bettings, <SwitchingQuylthulg> ♖ (Absolute ranker) showed their feared reputation by winning third places together with <LucB>♖ (Absolute ranker)!

Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: As for me I betted the bad scoring candidate (6th in the candidates then) Aronian to do good here, and the good scoring candidate Karjakin (2nd then) to do bad and was wrong on both accounts again! Also wrong on Grischuk what is simply too much.

It is time to turn to soccer now as Spain vd the Netherlands is about to begin in the World dup Brazil :)

Jun-13-14  WinKing: Congratulations to all of the medal winners! That 'crazy wabbit' knows how to play this game. Nice 'hat trick' <WannaBe>.

Thanks for another great contest <lostemperor>. Already looking forward to the next encounter.

Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Congratulations to <WannaBe>, and thanks to <lostemperor>! I'm surprised I managed to medal after not being in the top three in any intermediate standings :)
Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Thank you <lostemperor> for hosting the contest!!!
Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Thanks for hosting <lostemperor>. I had fun... for most of the tournament. :)

Also, congratz to the winners, especially <WannaBe>. By my unofficial count, he becomes the 7th user to win a triple crown in this contest (after <positionalgenius>, <Where is my mind>, <chessmoron>, <SloVice>, <cromat> and myself). Unfortunately for everyone listed, only one gold medal was won. Nevertheless, <WannaBe> has won 6 gold medals.

Hope to see you around Dortmund.

Jun-13-14  LucB: I won a rook! I won a rook! Yeah!!

That was fun.. not a bad result for a 1-minute think-through as to who-to-place-where..

Thanks for hosting this <lostemperor>, and congratulations to the Wascally Wabbit <WannaBe>!

Jun-13-14  The Last Straw: Ugh!

I was at the top, but couldn't help it when I slowly sunk into that hole....

Jun-13-14  The Last Straw: Thanks for holding the contest anyway, and congratulations to all the winners!
Jun-13-14  MountainMatt: Thanks <lostemporer>, that was fun! Especially at the end when I climbed out of the bottom of the pile. :) Looking forward to the next one!
Jun-13-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  moronovich: Thanks for hosting <Lostemperor> and a big congratulations on the Dutch outstanding performance tonight and herebey some of the favourites in the group just outside Brazil and Argentina IMO.

See you around.

Jun-13-14  YouRang: Thanks <lostemperor>. Always fun, and I'm happy to come away with a bronze. This was a tough tournament to predict.

Congrats to <WannaBe> wabbit for finishing with top honors, and for such a good bluff in round 1:

<Jun-03-14 WannaBe: See how good I am, one round, and dead last. Beat That!>

Jun-13-14  WinKing: 'Hall of Famers List' all Gold Medal totals - (**All 3 contests**) (Updated June 13, 2014) - See my forum.
Jun-14-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Well, I was in first for one round. Thanks Yoda. Congrats to the Wascally Wabbit.
Jun-14-14  wordfunph: <lostemperor> thanks for hosting.

...and cheers to all the winners!

Jun-14-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Now the chess tournament is over we have to do with a boring soccer championships :p
Jun-16-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: It seems I did <YouRang> short. He also came second in the Pair Betting Ranker ex aequo <moronovich>. Somehow I missed that since it is so unusual someone finished with the same amount at the Pair Betting Ranker. And their predicions are not even identical!

So a well deserved Silver for <YouRang>♕ still! :)

Jun-16-14  YouRang: Ah, good catch <lostemperor>. I didn't even think to check the scores, lol.

So, I sort of medaled for the cycle in Norway: A gold and bronze in my contest and a silver in yours. :-)

Jun-21-14  isemeria: Hi <lostemperor>! Thanks for hosting.

I was traveling last week, so I could check the results only now. And I see that I had some success this time.

My better than expected result is partly because I tried to follow the advice from "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman. (A fantastic book, BTW). That is, don't try to outsmart base rate information too much. In chess context, stick to ratings unless there's some evidence of player's recent form for example.

Jul-09-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: I know it's early, but I've been having computer problems, and fear that I may not be able to enter my predictions for Dortmund in time. Plus, looking at my last 4 tournament results, I should win a medal this time around:

Tal 2013: Bronze <Medal>

Tata 2014: Last in 2 categories, 2nd last in other <No Medal>

Candidates 2014: Triple crown (awarded only one gold medal) <Medal>

Norway 2014: 2nd last in 2 categories, last in other <No Medal>

Dortmund 2014: <Medal?>

If for whatever reason you can't/won't host this contest, just delete this post.

1. Kramnik
2. Ponomariov
3. Leko
4. Adams
4. Meier
6. Baramidze
6. Caruana
8. Naiditsch

Jul-10-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Dortmund Moves Prediction contest hosted by <chessmoron> coming soon. Click on Elvis for details.
Jul-11-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I was not planned to hold the Dortmund prediction contest due to the limited amount of players.
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