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| Jan-31-06 | | YouRang: Here is a summary of how well we did collectively at predicting the games for each player: PlayerID,Score,Max,Pct
Sokolov,466,738,63.1%
Leko,443,738,60.0%
van Wely,439,738,59.5%
Bacrot,396,738,53.7%
Gelfand,395,738,53.5%
Tiviakov,394,738,53.4%
Topalov,388,738,52.6%
Adams,360,738,48.8%
Aronian,357,738,48.4%
Ivanchuk,346,738,46.9%
Karjakin,329,738,44.6%
Mamedyarov,311,738,42.1%
Anand,301,738,40.8%
Kamsky,229,738,31.0%
Obviously, since Kamsky played so many decided games, he was very hard to predict. Players who get lots of draws and otherwise don't have too many surprising decided games, like Sokolov and Leko were easy to predict. |
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| Jan-31-06 | | YouRang: Here's <another facsinating stat>: I think we can all agree that the first round is sort of a "warm up" round, and therefore isn't important. The really important rounds are rounds 2 and 3, which demostrates each person's ability to develop their analytical predictive models. But naturally, the MOST important rounds are the last 3 rounds (11, 12 and 13). There, we make our high pressure predictions based on our accumulated wisdom from the previous rounds. (The middle rounds, 4 thru 10, are just filler, and they are unimportant.) Okay, so lets run our report and see how we did on these IMPORTANT rounds: ***
Rounds: 2-3 11-13
Score,Max,Pct.,UserID,Rounds
23,35,65.7%,TechN9ne,5
23,35,65.7%,YouRang,5
22,35,62.9%,firebyrd,5
20,35,57.1%,cromat,5
20,35,57.1%,KingG,5
20,35,57.1%,percyblakeney,5
19,35,54.3%,<DRAWER>,5 Hey! Look at that! I came in tied for 1st! Woo hoo! Believe me, I'm just as surprised as you are. Wheee! |
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Feb-01-06
 | | cu8sfan: <Okay, so lets run our report and see how we did on these IMPORTANT rounds> Lol! How long did it take you to find a stat that made you come in first? (-: |
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| Feb-01-06 | | YouRang: <cu8sfan> <How long did it take you to find a stat that made you come in first?> Gee, when you put it that way, it makes it sound like I deliberately attempted to inject bias into the results! :-0 Okay, to answer your question: Not long. I knew I got off to a good start (until I went 1/7 in round 4) and then I finished well, going 5/7 in each of the last 3 rounds. This knowledge *might* have influenced my opinion regarding which rounds were "important". ;-) |
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| Feb-01-06 | | suenteus po 147: <YouRang> LOL! Hilarious! |
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Feb-01-06
 | | tpstar: <cu8sfan> Great job with the prediction contest. =) <Posts in TKC have been cut in half!> Do you have Korchnoi on ignore? If not, that explains it right there. ;>D The one trend I noticed is dramatically fewer posted games in TKC since 12/05. I thought more students would come back in time but that hasn't happened yet. <YouRang> That's great how you helped the prediction contests with your software. But please reconsider labeling people "Worst Predictor" and such. I hate to sound like a soccer Mom, but let's try to accentuate the positive all around. =) |
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| Feb-01-06 | | YouRang: <tpstar> "Most predictively challenged"? ;) |
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Feb-01-06
| | tpstar: <YouRang> How about "Most Improved" concentrating on the good result while leaving out the bad result entirely. I would even buy "Fewest Correct" but I still believe that's too negative during an offhand contest for fun. |
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Feb-01-06
| | cu8sfan: <YouRang> Lol!
<tpstar> <Do you have Korchnoi on ignore?> If "Korchnoi" is the four-letter word with the Korchnoi avatar then yes, I put him on ignore. He's too cumbersome. |
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| Feb-01-06 | | YouRang: <tpstar> Of course, it wasn't my intent to offend anyone with my "worst predictor" announcments, and to my knowledge, nobody was really offended. Do you know of anyone who was offended? In my view, the very fact that it is (as you say) "an offhand contest for fun", means that a little good-natured jabbing is not inappropriate, and it's just part of the fun. Although I don't think anyone was offended, it's an interesting point. I would appreciate the opinions of others, just to make sure I'm not being presumptuous about this... |
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Feb-02-06
| | cu8sfan: Yet another fascinating stat! How well did we perform as a group? I took all our predictions and created a "democratic mass prediction", where the result that got the most votes was predicted. I then compared this prediction to the real result. Here's how much we scored per round: <round: score>
1: 6
2: 2
3: 4
4: 3
5: 4
6: 4
7: 4
8: 5
9: 3
10: 5
11: 2
12: 6
13: 3
This gives us an overall score of a respectable 51, which ties us fo fourth thru seventh. Btw, 51 was also <Drawer>'s score. |
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Feb-02-06
| | cu8sfan: Trivia question #1: In the Wijk aan Zee 2006 prediction contest, which pairing got the most predictions for a white win? Trivia question #2: In the Wijk aan Zee 2006 prediction contest, which pairing got the most predictions for a draw? Trivia question #3: In the Wijk aan Zee 2006 prediction contest, which pairing got the most predictions for a black win? |
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Feb-02-06
 | | WannaBe: I'm gonna guess number 2 is Topalov vs. Anand. As far as number 1 and 3 goes, don't know. :( |
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| Feb-02-06 | | percyblakeney: Guess number 1: Topalov-Sokolov.
Number 2: Maybe a last round game like Leko-Topalov.
Number 3: van Wely-Topalov. |
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Feb-02-06
| | cu8sfan: #1: Topalov-Sokolov was fourth with 45 white wins predicted #2: Both of you are not even close.
#3: van Wely-Topalov is close, it came in second with 40 black wins predicted. There's a pairing that got two more votes for a black win. |
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| Feb-02-06 | | iron maiden: For #1 I'm going to guess either Topalov-Mamedyarov or Anand-Tiviakov.
Not at all sure about #2. For #3 my guess is Kamsky-Anand. |
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| Feb-02-06 | | YouRang: Can I guess too? :-)
Or will all those "Suspicious Alouicious" characters out there accuse me of cheating just because I happen to have all the contest data? |
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Feb-02-06
| | cu8sfan: <iron maiden> You scored! Topalov-Mamedyarov had 52 predictions for a white win. Anand-Tiviakov was second. Sorry but I can't tell you now how Kamsky-Anand scored but it's not number 1 in the black-wins category. |
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Feb-02-06
| | cu8sfan: <YouRang> Only if you guess right. (-: |
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Feb-02-06
 | | TheAlchemist: 2) Tiviakov-Leko
3) Sokolov-Anand |
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Feb-03-06
| | cu8sfan: <<iron maiden> Topalov-Mamedyarov had 52 predictions for a white win. Anand-Tiviakov was second.> Slight correction here: Both Topalov-Mamedyarov and Anand-Tiviakov came in tied for first in White Wins predictions with 53. <TheAlchemist: 2) Tiviakov-Leko
3) Sokolov-Anand>
Tiviakov-Leko only had 43 predictions for a draw (12th). The winner had 62!
Sokolov-Anand is a good guess, it came in third with 39 predictions for a black win. One more guess and I'll solve. |
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| Feb-03-06 | | iron maiden: Maybe van Wely-Leko for the drawn game and Tiviakov-Topalov for the black win? |
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| Feb-03-06 | | babakova: <cu8sfan> It "has" to be Topalov-Anand... |
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Feb-03-06
| | cu8sfan: <iron maiden> You did it again! Tiviakov-Topalov was predicted to be a black win by 42 kibitzers, second was van Wely-Topalov with 40 votes. Solution for the draw leader: It was the round 1 pairing <Gelfand-Leko> with 62 draws predicted. The game lived up to the expectations by ending in a draw. |
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| Feb-04-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: <Standings after 2 tournaments: 1. cu8sfan: 8>
So you leading in your own tournament game, <cu8sfan>? Somebody ought to double-check this. :) |
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